McD strategy blunders

[RkFast]

37 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

And as a McD game-decision critic, I would have absolutely bashed him for "playing not to lose" if he punted.

 

 

Is pinning the Chiefs in their red zone with no timeouts and little time with the way the Bills D was playing really "playing not to lose?"

 

Not really, IMHO.

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

So it’s a go situation vs kick.  I think I would give Prater a little better odds of making it vs the offense converting.  Mcdermott is almost always on the analytic side of these choices.  This was the proper decision imo.  With about equal odds the punt is the only play that doesn't win it.   

The only real variable here would be Prater's calf injury. Depending on how bad it was, I could see the punt if he wasn't 100%. But we don't have access to that kind of information. Being that McDermott was comfortable letting him kick there tells me the calf was only a minor thing, which is reassuring for this week. 

[Cray51]

Ridiculous. 

 

Kicking the field goal was 100% the right call.  Just like how he handled the goal line stand in the 1st half - masterful.  No one is talking about it because the people who hate McD can't seem to give him any credit.

 

Blown coverage leads to KC with the ball at the half yard like, 37 seconds left.  McD doesn't call TO right away, he waits until they are close to snapping to stop the clock at 25 seconds.  It allows him to change personnel and bring the big run stuffers in.  Hunt is 18 for 20 in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 conversions, and he is at the goal line.  Personnel change allows the stop on 1st, the two incomplete passes on 2nd and 3rd down, and the FG keeps KC to 3 points instead of 7.

 

Ended up being a huge moment, Buffalo didnt have to worry about defending a field goal at the end of the game.

 

McD was very good against the Chiefs.  People need to cut it out with the crap.  Watch 75% of the coaches around the league mess things up consistently and then tell me McD is a bad tactical coach

[Ga boy]

47 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Andy Reid has no fear of Sean McDermott at all, he went for it on a 4th and 17 and made the first down, how does that even happen? We've been stuffed on 4 and 2/ 4th and 3 and they made a 4th and 17. As poor as Mahomes played this game due to the pressure they were only a TD away from tying it up at the end. How many on here thought once Prater missed that FG, "oh no 22 seconds" ? I sure as heck did and there's a reason for that. For me though this game really didn't mean much, none of these regular season games do, seeding in the playoffs doesn't mean much either imo, we've lost at home and on the road in the playoffs so just get me to the playoffs and hopefully McDermott doesn't hold us back again this season that's all you can ask for.

What are they saying about Reid in KC.  He made some flubs too.

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. And it is admittedly very minor differences. Basically whatever the Bills did they were very strong favourites to win.

 

 

….and a lock to be criticized for it. 

[Wayne Cubed]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. And it is admittedly very minor differences. Basically whatever the Bills did they were very strong favourites to win.

 

Wondering if the difference is in the rate of a blocks. FGs being blocked more statistically increases the chance the Chiefs get better field position, from that distance, to have a shot into the endzone.

Edited 8 hours ago by Wayne Cubed

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

Just now, Ga boy said:

What are they saying about Reid in KC.  He made some flubs too.

 

I'm not trying to be a debbie downer but if I were a Chiefs fan I'd probably be saying don't worry we'll get them in the playoffs. 

[Cray51]

2 minutes ago, Bookie Man said:

I've actually thought a lot over this. Cases can be made for all 3 decisions. My initial reaction was to punt. I think that would have produced the lowest % scenario for KC to score a TD. Probably less than a 2% chance. I would guess that either going for it or FG attempt was slightly riskier, maybe about 4% chance of TD scenario. 

I wish I was better at analytics lol. 

 

 

And there are multiple variables and odds to consider.

 

Do you punt, which gives KC a 2% chance of a TD but gives you a 0% chance of winning.  You convert a punt 99% of the time

Do you FG, which gives you a 100% chance of winning but KC a 5% chance if you miss.  You make a FG in that range 75% of the time

Do you go for it, which gives you a 100% chance of winning, but KC a 5% chance if you miss, plus the chances of a fumble/INT being way higher.  You convert 45% of the 4th downs at that distance.

 

I go FG - it's the highest chance of a put away play with the lowest possible TD the other way rate, and KC's chances go up minimally with a miss (which is what happened).

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, WIDE LEFT said:

No and no. Not a McD “hater” here.. I recognize he brings a lot of positives to the team as a HC. But time after time his game strategy decisions are terrible, especially in the biggest games. In previous posts I have advocated for a strategy coach, an advisor who sits in the booth, away from the chaos of the sidelines, and is able, based primarily on solid analytics, to present options and recommendations. Take a look at the Bills sidelines during a game. McD clapping, totally engrossed in each play, now calling defenses etc etc. Like every NFL sideline - chaos. The WORST possible environment to make strategic decisions. Every NFL coach could use a strategy coach.BTW, Vrabel in New England employs one.

 

     And he is not getting better at this. Last year, year 7 as HC, he made what ESPN’s Mike Greenberg called “probably not the worst decision we will see this year, but certainly the dumbest” by throwing choosing to throw 3 times at games end from his own one yard line, which handed Houston a win. McD then went on the to make the WORST decision of the year, calling a timeout with less than a minute to go with the Bills at the Rams one yard line. Brady, who was calling the game, reacted immediately, calling out what a horrible decision that was, as it left the Bills no chance to win, other than recovering an onside kick. And of course McD has a history of bad decisions - 13 seconds etc etc

 

Sunday McD strikes again. A strategy coach would have strongly advised against kicking that last field goal. A punt, a punt angled out of bounds ( to prevent any possible return) was the correct strategic decision. It’s virtually impossible for a team drive the ball down the field, 80 + yards, in 22 seconds with zero timeouts. It’s even unlikely a team could even get in position to throw a Hail Mary under those circumstances. Recall the 13 seconds game KC had all three timeouts and only needed a FG. Instead McD blunders again, and Mahomes second last pass was way too close to tying that game. These games are won on the margins, especially playoff games, and his strategic blunders have cost the Bills playoff losses in the past, and I don’t see any improvement in this area.Hire a strategy coach, not to make the final decision but to present best options away from the chaos that is an NFL sideline 
 

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DyRdq4Mcw08

 

[WIDE LEFT]

15 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I disagree with every one of these.  Including 13 secs.  
 

1. 13 seconds.  The kickoff can be debated.  With a little under 2 mins left the secondary was up and Hill took a crossing route 70 yards for a touch down.  On the next play are you calling the same defense that just gave up 70?  You are playing off. 
 

2.  You pay Allen 250 mil because numerous times he has gotten into field goal range in absurdly fast fashion.  Lions game, Dolphins game.  I would fire Mcdermott on the spot if in that moment or one similar he takes the ball out of Allens hand. 
 

3.  Kick wins the game.  Prater has the leg and career of making them.  Draw back they have 23 secs to go 60 yards.  Positive you win the game.  Maybe go for it with Allen.  At that moment I think Prater making it was slightly higher probability than the offense converting.  KC and Spags are tops in the league in those situations. Vs the best teams go for the win every time.  

WOW wrong on every point here. 13 seconds - the (valid) criticism by virtually every NFL coach was that the D was defending the sidelines on the Chiefs last drive; despite the fact that KC still had 3 timeouts. Terrible defensive call/decision.

You would fire McD if he took the ball out of Allen’s hands in that situation?  Go look at the home opener v Cardinals last year. Bills had the ball in the red zone with less than 2 minutes. Up by 3, they ran the ball three straight times and settles for a field goal. A 6 point lead almost led to defeat as a subsequent pass by AZ QB was tipped away at our  5 yard line. Two games later McD has us throwing three times from our own one yard line. I don’t recall u calling for McD to be fired for taking the ball out of Allen’s hands that time.

And a punt in the KC game guarantees a victory. U can’t go 80 yards in 22 seconds with no timeouts. It’s NEVER, in the history of the NFL, ever been done. It should be obvious that a field goal is never guaranteed, especially from that distance from a 41 year old kicker who had the luxury of kicking in Denver for much of his career

[quincy]

You 100% want Prater to make the FG and secure the game there and then but in my view we should be confident in the D holding up for 22 seconds and 0 timeouts with a TD needed to tie irrespective of who the opposing QB or HC is.  

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, RkFast said:

 

Is pinning the Chiefs in their red zone with no timeouts and little time with the way the Bills D was playing really "playing not to lose?"

 

Not really, IMHO.

 

As we've said and disclaimed numerous times, there wasnt much difference in the choices and we were setup with a strong chance to win no matter what.

 

That said, out of all the options available there, punting and giving them the ball back is the "weakest", "playing not to lose" move. Going for it, or going for the FG points are both the more aggressive, playing to win decisions.

 

Punting to them with 27seconds left, with what they've proven to be able to do in 13 and 16 seconds, would've been the weakest move.

 

But good news! McD chose right. Analytics be damned! He went with his plums instead.

[thurst44]

Seriously, we're doing this after a game where there's an argument (I've heard many creators and national people I respect make) that McD may have outcoached one of the GOATS (and GOAT staffs).

 

McD certainly has some gameday question marks, sure, but this Sunday was not one of them.

[The Wiz]

47 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

I feel like the anal-ytics would have been 33% punt, 33% FG and 33% go for it.  What were they actually?  I haven't seen the figures at that moment in time.

Someone broke down the winning percentage based on each option

Punt: 99.9%

Go for it: 99.3%

Fg: 99.2%

[DrDawkinstein]

 

 

10 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

What are they saying about Reid in KC.  He made some flubs too.

 

Reid's multiple rings and track record make it a bit different discussion.

[US Egg]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

I'm not trying to be a debbie downer

Then you’re in the wrong thread.

[pi2000]

fake punt conversion woulda won the game tho

[Ga boy]

27 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

I'm not trying to be a debbie downer but if I were a Chiefs fan I'd probably be saying don't worry we'll get them in the playoffs. 

I get that but they needed this game.

[Billsatlastin2018]

1 hour ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Sunday McD strikes again. A strategy coach would have strongly advised against kicking that last field goal. A punt, a punt angled out of bounds ( to prevent any possible return) was the correct strategic decision. It’s virtually impossible for a team drive the ball down the field, 80 + yards, in 22 seconds with zero timeouts. It’s even unlikely a team could even get in position to throw a Hail Mary under those circumstances. Recall the 13 seconds game KC had all three timeouts and only needed a FG. Instead McD blunders again, and Mahomes second last pass was way too close to tying that game. These games are won on the margins, especially playoff games, and his strategic blunders have cost the Bills playoff losses in the past, and I don’t see any improvement in this area.Hire a strategy coach, not to make the final decision but to present best options away from the chaos that is an NFL sideline 

Absolutely- but we are in the minority here.

 

This was in the ballpark of ‘13 Seconds’- absolutely. Should OUR FG Kicker make that kick and seal the game? Absolutely! But, the trade off is obvious if he misses!

 

McD, in the biggest moments, cannot figure out time v.s. distance single choices. Just like in 13 seconds, you kick the ball to REDUCE TIME LEFT! 
 

100%!
 

In that situation, while the Chiefs had 2 TOs, the time is reduced to about 9 seconds- 2 plays from the 30 yard line.

 

In this case, the Chiefs had ZERO TOs and Bills were up 7. Ergo, you Punt to do BOTH things- push them back 20 yards or more and take 5 seconds off the clock.

 

McD can NEVER be trusted to make the correct choice. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I haven’t read through the rest yet but to be fair to mcd in that Texans game, Josh had a comically wide open guy and straight up missed him..  3 quick runs and a punt probably would’ve left the Texans with enough time to get a crack at a fg anyway they had all 3 timeouts.  Martin ended up hitting a phenomenal punt from his own end zone which made it seem a bit more controversial than it really was…there was a very good chance Texans would take over in immediate fg range when mcd was weighing how to handle his offensive drive 

 

so much of coaching criticisms are just hindsight nitpicking..  you really gotta try to objectively think about how you would’ve felt if the bills ran three straight times, got stuffed, and then lost the game to truly evaluate how bad the decision was.  I think everyone would’ve flamed mcd if that happened also   

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan