Bills are Super Bowl Favorites

[harryS]

31 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

I never said it has anything to do with making a good or bad bet my friend. I’m just telling you what they have as odds right now and as of now they still think Buffalo will right the ship per se. Doesn’t mean they are going to win it by any means. 
 

It is definitely a bad bet if you take Buffalo or KC for that matter. Only one team has won the Super Bowl after being an odds on favorite after week 6 the last 20 years. So you are getting a 5% chance of winning your wager. So I do agree with you. I didn’t maybe explain it as well as I could have. 

 

Thank you for having a classy, polite conversation about this.  You are a gentleman, and I like the stats you posted.

 

I still don't agree with that bolded statement there.  The books have no opinion on whether Buffalo will right the ship, and if they do, they don't use it to make lines.

 

Creating a futures market is easy.  All the books are doing is estimating what the "true odds" of the Bills wining the Super Bowl is, and then they mark up the price for the bettors.

 

So, there are prediction markets like Polymarket where you can bet both sides of the Bills winning the Super Bowl, which gets us to a reasonable estimate as to what those "true odds" are.  At PolyMarket, the Bills are trading at 12%.  That means that the fair price for the Bills to win the Super Bowl is 88 / 12 * 100 = +733.  The book that was quoted above was offering the Bills at +600, which means the "vig" on that bet is 22.2%.  A regular point spread bet only has a vig of 10%, as you know, and that 10% already kills bettors.  The futures market is a book's best friend because they can just put up terrible prices for the bettor. I've seen books where the overall juice for all 32 teams in the market is around 50%.

 

And that's all they're really doing in a futures market.  They don't know if the Bills will turn it around or not.  They just want to make it so if you're betting on the Bills, you're betting a bad price.

 

 

[Billsfanatic8989]

7 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

KC’s flaws are mediocre running game and inconsistent run defense. 

They've never had a great running game. And the run defense still has the personnel to shut guys down. 

 

I guess I'm saying I'd be shocked if they didn't make it back to the SB this year. The competition isnt stiff. 

[90sBills]

3 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

They've never had a great running game. And the run defense still has the personnel to shut guys down. 

 

I guess I'm saying I'd be shocked if they didn't make it back to the SB this year. The competition isnt stiff. 

I wouldn’t be shocked either. The AFC is wide open and it’s still very early. These points actually give me hope for the Bills. It’s early enough to turn things around and there isn’t a dominant team in the AFC.

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

The betting “public” has nothing to do with it. 
 

The oddsmakers are the ones who adjusted the lines. Their was some professional money that came in on the Chiefs. 
 

Public money doesn’t move lines 99% of the time. Only professional money does.

 

The oddsmakers as of right now still think the Bills will get the ship righted and be there at the end with the Chiefs. So people should probably quit jumping off of a cliff over a couple of games. Especially with the injuries and suspended players. 
 

Also I don’t want to hear from anyone trying to tell me how it works since this is what I have been doing for over 30 years and know exactly how it works and what moves lines and what doesn’t and how the inter workings of Sports Books actually work. Public money doesn’t do anything.

 

The Sports Books don’t want 50/50 action on both sides of every spread (that’s the biggest myth in Sports betting ever) and many other things. 
 

Point is as of right now the oddsmakers think the Bills will be there at the end of the year along with the Chiefs. While the average fan is freaking out on this board. 
 

Now does that mean the Bills will stay up there? Nope.

 

Have to see how they do back from the bye with more of their pieces back and how they respond. Until then I wouldn’t go jumping off any cliffs because of a couple of losses. 
 

 

Appreciate the perspective you’ve offered, sir.  Instead of betting “public”, sounds like “bettors” would have been a more appropriate term in my post, since it would account for the sharp/professional money.  Either way, the money hasn’t found a better favorite than the Bills yet.

 

That is an interesting analysis you’ve put together about the Week 6 favorites and there only being one SB winner out of that group in the last 15-20 years.  The point there I think is that the Week 6 SB favorite means nothing 🙂.

[BillytheKid]

1 hour ago, harryS said:

 

Thank you for having a classy, polite conversation about this.  You are a gentleman, and I like the stats you posted.

 

I still don't agree with that bolded statement there.  The books have no opinion on whether Buffalo will right the ship, and if they do, they don't use it to make lines.

 

Creating a futures market is easy.  All the books are doing is estimating what the "true odds" of the Bills wining the Super Bowl is, and then they mark up the price for the bettors.

 

So, there are prediction markets like Polymarket where you can bet both sides of the Bills winning the Super Bowl, which gets us to a reasonable estimate as to what those "true odds" are.  At PolyMarket, the Bills are trading at 12%.  That means that the fair price for the Bills to win the Super Bowl is 88 / 12 * 100 = +733.  The book that was quoted above was offering the Bills at +600, which means the "vig" on that bet is 22.2%.  A regular point spread bet only has a vig of 10%, as you know, and that 10% already kills bettors.  The futures market is a book's best friend because they can just put up terrible prices for the bettor. I've seen books where the overall juice for all 32 teams in the market is around 50%.

 

And that's all they're really doing in a futures market.  They don't know if the Bills will turn it around or not.  They just want to make it so if you're betting on the Bills, you're betting a bad price.

 

 

I completely agree with you. I know they have no clue for sure if the Bills will turn it around or not. 
 

Like I said if you take the Bills right now just based on those numbers I posted you have a 5% chance of winning but you are only getting 6 to 1 odds which is terrible. 
 

So I agree with you. 

7 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Appreciate the perspective you’ve offered, sir.  Instead of betting “public”, sounds like “bettors” would have been a more appropriate term in my post, since it would account for the sharp/professional money.  Either way, the money hasn’t found a better favorite than the Bills yet.

 

That is an interesting analysis you’ve put together about the Week 6 favorites and there only being one SB winner out of that group in the last 15-20 years.  The point there I think is that the Week 6 SB favorite means nothing 🙂.

Exactly doesn’t mean a whole lot other than you do have a greater than 50% chance of making the AFC championship game. That is probably the only thing you could get out of it. Still doesn’t guaranty anything though. 
 

 

[Buffalo Boy]

4 hours ago, dwight in philly said:

Maybe its because  Vegas has inside Info on the Bills getting KC like officiating breaks.. 

the saddest part about this statement is the NFL has whored itself out so badly with all this sports betting BS that this does’t sound tin foil hat crazy😔

[BillsFooteball]

I know the goal is so much more than just getting in the playoffs, but FanDuel has the bills with the best odds in NFL making it at -2000. #2 is Tampa Bay at -950

[Mikie2times]

We rank 12th in DVOA, it's the lowest we have been ranked since 2019. This isn't a Super Bowl team right now. This isn't a team that is going to just catch fire come playoff time. They have the largest regular season to playoffs regression in NFL history based on EPA. The team will need to be playing well enough that it can survive some of that regression. I just can't sign up for actual improvement in the postseason given how overwhelming the data is at this point. Our scheme is easy to beat with prep time and postseason talent and that's been proven even in years where we had some talent. We don't have the horses right now and are getting carved up by 2nd year QB's. Lord help us for what this will look like come postseason without major changes. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Mikie2times

[Maynard]

6 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

 

Odds on favorites after NFL week 6 to go on to win the Super Bowl the last 20 years.

 

 

 

2005 Colts) lost to Pittsburgh in playoffs

 

2006 Colts ) and Bears. Colts won Super Bowl

 

2007 New England) lost in Super Bowl to Giants

 

2008 Giants) lost to Philly in divisional round

 

2009 Eagles) lost wildcard to Dallas

 

2010 Colts) lost wildcard to Jets

 

2011 Packers) lost divisional to Giants

 

2012 Pats) Lost AFC Championship to Ravens

 

2013 Denver) Lost Super Bowl to Seattle

 

2014 Denver, Seattle) Seattle lost to the Pats in Super Bowl

 

2015 Packers, Pats) Pats lost to Denver AFC championship

 

2016 Vikings) Missed the playoffs after 5-0 start.

 

2017 Pats ) Lost Super Bowl to Eagles

 

2018 Kansas City) Lost in AFC Chmapionship to Pats

 

2019 Pats, Saints) Pats lost wildcard to Titans

 

2020 Kansas City) Lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay

 

2021 Buffalo) Lost 13 second game

 

2022 Buffalo) Lost divisional to Cincinnati

 

2023 49ers) Lost Super Bowl to KC

 

2024 Kansas City) Lost Super Bowl to Philly

 

 

Conclusion :

 

This is the Bills 3rd time in the last 5 years being favorites after week 6. 
 

 

 

Only one time did the odds on favorite after week 6 win it. The Colts in 2006-07

 

Teams made it to the Super Bowl 8 times. Losing 7 of the 8.

 

Made it at least to AFC championship game 11 times.

 

Only one team missed the playoffs. The Vikings.

 

So you can make it to the Super Bowl but the odds you win it are only 5% based on this 20 year sample.

 

So not likely to win it.

 

You have over a 50% to make it to the AFC championship game then you are just hoping you can win it and win the Super Bowl with things falling your way those 2 games. 

I never said it has anything to do with making a good or bad bet my friend. I’m just telling you what they have as odds right now and as of now they still think Buffalo will right the ship per se. Doesn’t mean they are going to win it by any means. 
 

It is definitely a bad bet if you take Buffalo or KC for that matter. Only one team has won the Super Bowl after being an odds on favorite after week 6 the last 20 years. So you are getting a 5% chance of winning your wager. So I do agree with you. I didn’t maybe explain it as well as I could have. 

That’s all you got???

[Zerovoltz]

I think we all know what's going to happen. ......