Michael Palmer article in SU Paper this morning

[machine gun kelly]

Guys:

 

Not sure when there was so much discussion this summer of the synergy between Josh and Palmer, yet not getting targets.  The article purports getting the best separation on the team.  I was curious as to your thoughts and opinions if you read the article.  It’s an easy read and in the main board.

 

Im perplexed as well as I see him separating for defenders.  Anyway, we have some sharp people on the board, so feel free to comment if you have some thoughts.

 

Thanks guys as I normally don’t start many threads, but enjoyed the read.

[oldmanfan]

Brady has to do a better job scheming guys open.  Josh has to recognize guys downfield that have one on one situations and trust them to make plays.  Even so we have a top offense.

Edited 6 hours ago by oldmanfan

[thenorthremembers]

He may he getting the most separation on the team but that's saying very little.  He still isnt getting the type of separation good to great wideouts get in the NFL. 

 

The fact that he is on pace for the exact same season he had last near with another very good QB should tell you a lot about Palmer.    

[ganesh]

We don't need Palmer running down the line 40-50 yards from scrimmage...We can target him in the 10-20 yard region and likely to see better success.  Currently. those targets are going to Kincaid and Coleman

[eSJayDee]

Is this the article where it says he leads Bills' receivers w/ 0.1 yard separation?  That's like 4 inches!  That # needs to be explained, cuz it can't mean what I, or any lay person thinks it means, cuz as I figure, you'd have a very hard time staying that close, ie that is NO SEPARATION.

[rajinka]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Brady has to do a better job scheming guys open.  Josh has to recognize guys downfield that have one on one situations and trust them to make plays.  Even so we have a top offense.

Nope I was told in keon thread o coordinators don't scheme ppl open it's a myth

[Gunsgoodtime]

6 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

He may he getting the most separation on the team but that's saying very little.  He still isnt getting the type of separation good to great wideouts get in the NFL. 

 

The fact that he is on pace for the exact same season he had last near with another very good QB should tell you a lot about Palmer.    

Exactly.  Having the most separation on a team that is probablly near the worst in that category isn't saying a whole lot

Edited 36 minutes ago by Gunsgoodtime

[Don Otreply]

From what I have read watched etc, getting “open” is one to two strides / steps give or take, if fans are expecting a wideout to be literally by himself, they better not hold their breath, its a matter of the moment that the QB looks at a given receiver, who at that second isn’t “open” and the QB moves on to his second / third read by that time the first read may very well be “open” yet in essence it is to late in the play progression, I suspect this is what is actually happening with our guys… play design could certainly help with this scenario, 

 

any thoughts from our resident football minds

[The BLUES Brothers]

Joe Marino saw metrics that looked Palmer would flourish here, and it is early...but being called the best WR seperator on the Bills (at less than a foot) is like saying I'm a great golfer because I'm the best in our foursome Ha!

 

 

[Brand J]

3 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

From what I have read watched etc, getting “open” is one to two strides / steps give or take, if fans are expecting a wideout to be literally by himself, they better not hold their breath, its a matter of the moment that the QB looks at a given receiver, who at that second isn’t “open” and the QB moves on to his second / third read by that time the first read may very well be “open” yet in essence it is to late in the play progression, I suspect this is what is actually happening with our guys… play design could certainly help with this scenario, 

 

any thoughts from our resident football minds

Yeah, only Lamar Jackson consistently has receivers that are “high school” open. For most in the league the receiver will usually have 1-2 yards of separation and it’s on the QB to either throw them open, or put a pass right on them when they’re open. I do think this offense needs more pick/rub routes and less WR bubble screens. We’re not getting blitzed much so those screens are seeming like wasted downs. Too much horizontal passing for my liking. 

[Nihilarian]

NFL defenses usually don't take long to catch up to what the current NFL offenses or what QBs are doing.

 

When Buffalo had Stephon Diggs as their #1 WR and threw a lot of passes his way, he caught a lot of passes tight up until the playoffs when teams have better players and better schemes.. Then, not so good, in fact, in his last game in Buffalo against the Chiefs had 8 targets for 3 receptions for 21 yards. Pretty crappy for  #1 WR in the playoffs, and this was not the first time he disappeared in the playoffs. 

 

What a lot of Bills fans don't get is that opposing teams pick their poison on how they want to stop an offense like Buffalo. The Bills have a speedy WR in Curtis Samuel, who runs a 4.31-4.37, who has enough speed to catch those deep balls, "IF" Buffalo wanted to throw deep. Palmer is another who can get separation "IF" the Bills choose to throw to him. Right now, Palmer has a completion percentage of 50% which is not that good. 

 

A lot of the Buffalo offense comes down to how much Joah Allen trusts his receivers. Shakir and Coleman both have 29 targets each, and Coleman has a better success percentage in catches at 69%. Shakir is at 55.2, Kincade is at 66.7. Knox at 60%. Moore has a 40%. Whom do you think JA trusts the most?

The Buffalo offense under Joe Brady has become a "run first" offense with a tough, gritty pound-it-out run game. This has improved the offense by keeping turnovers somewhat limited, as Josh doesn't need to put on the cape and take as many chances. Buffalo can still throw the ball better than most, as we go back and watch that fourth quarter against the Ravens.

 

Buffalo, with their bend but don't break defense, means they don't want to give up the big play, so they allow teams to nickel and dime them up the field, with the Bills looking for them to make a mistake along the way. Last season, they did as Buffalo led the league in turnover ratio at +24. Meaning they also didn't turn the ball over on offense by taking chances with low-percentage pass plays. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Low Positive]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

From what I have read watched etc, getting “open” is one to two strides / steps give or take, if fans are expecting a wideout to be literally by himself, they better not hold their breath, its a matter of the moment that the QB looks at a given receiver, who at that second isn’t “open” and the QB moves on to his second / third read by that time the first read may very well be “open” yet in essence it is to late in the play progression, I suspect this is what is actually happening with our guys… play design could certainly help with this scenario, 

 

any thoughts from our resident football minds

Elite WRs get wide open with elite route running. Ja'Marr Chase makes DBs trip over their own feet. But he's one of the best WRs in the history of the game. 

 

[Brand J]

14 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Elite WRs get wide open with elite route running. Ja'Marr Chase makes DBs trip over their own feet. But he's one of the best WRs in the history of the game. 

 

Yeah, guys like a Chase and Jefferson are in the one percentile of receivers in the league. 

[SirAndrew]

I’ve never loved Brady’s offense, but I can’t blame him much for Palmer’s production. Palmer played with Herbert in LA, he didn’t really produce much. Palmer putting up big numbers would have been a surprise imo. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

Who's Michael Palmer?

[LEBills]

6 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Guys:

 

Not sure when there was so much discussion this summer of the synergy between Josh and Palmer, yet not getting targets.  The article purports getting the best separation on the team.  I was curious as to your thoughts and opinions if you read the article.  It’s an easy read and in the main board.

 

Im perplexed as well as I see him separating for defenders.  Anyway, we have some sharp people on the board, so feel free to comment if you have some thoughts.

 

Thanks guys as I normally don’t start many threads, but enjoyed the read.

He is just an ok WR is the reason imo. Palmer can separate, but usually they are on longer developing plays like the long crosser from the pats game. He isn’t fast or even quick so it takes a little bit for him to separate with his route running which is good. He also is not much of a RAC threat. So he has a niche role in the offense and Josh prefers to throw it to Shakir who can break a tackle, Kincaid who separates quickly and Coleman who is the open even if not open receiver.

[Billsfanatic8989]

51 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

NFL defenses usually don't take long to catch up to what the current NFL offenses or what QBs are doing.

 

When Buffalo had Stephon Diggs as their #1 WR and threw a lot of passes his way, he caught a lot of passes tight up until the playoffs when teams have better players and better schemes.. Then, not so good, in fact, in his last game in Buffalo against the Chiefs had 8 targets for 3 receptions for 21 yards. Pretty crappy for  #1 WR in the playoffs, and this was not the first time he disappeared in the playoffs. 

 

What a lot of Bills fans don't get is that opposing teams pick their poison on how they want to stop an offense like Buffalo. The Bills have a speedy WR in Curtis Samuel, who runs a 4.31-4.37, who has enough speed to catch those deep balls, "IF" Buffalo wanted to throw deep. Palmer is another who can get separation "IF" the Bills choose to throw to him. Right now, Palmer has a completion percentage of 50% which is not that good. 

 

A lot of the Buffalo offense comes down to how much Joah Allen trusts his receivers. Shakir and Coleman both have 29 targets each, and Coleman has a better success percentage in catches at 69%. Shakir is at 55.2, Kincade is at 66.7. Knox at 60%. Moore has a 40%. Whom do you think JA trusts the most?

The Buffalo offense under Joe Brady has become a "run first" offense with a tough, gritty pound-it-out run game. This has improved the offense by keeping turnovers somewhat limited, as Josh doesn't need to put on the cape and take as many chances. Buffalo can still throw the ball better than most, as we go back and watch that fourth quarter against the Ravens.

 

Buffalo, with their bend but don't break defense, means they don't want to give up the big play, so they allow teams to nickel and dime them up the field, with the Bills looking for them to make a mistake along the way. Last season, they did as Buffalo led the league in turnover ratio at +24. Meaning they also didn't turn the ball over on offense by taking chances with low-percentage pass plays. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hate this approach:

 

1. The defense is on the field longer. That will have an impact later on in the game. Tired players.

 

2. Less offensive possessions. In turn, that means the offense needs to be darn near perfect with the possessions they do get.

 

3. The strategy will probably work against average QB's. Elite QB's normally make less mistakes. Meaning, TD's instead of FG's. 

 

The strategy overall hasn't worked when it matters most. Get guys on D who can get a pick six here and there.

Edited 34 minutes ago by Billsfanatic8989

[Buffalo716]

Shakir is top 8 in separation per route average and Coleman is above Jamar chase 

 

The offense is fine and will also progress.. we have guys getting open 

 

Josh has not been able to get into a rhythm since week one we run the ball more than any team in the NFL

[KOKBILLS]

36 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

NFL defenses usually don't take long to catch up to what the current NFL offenses or what QBs are doing.

 

When Buffalo had Stephon Diggs as their #1 WR and threw a lot of passes his way, he caught a lot of passes tight up until the playoffs when teams have better players and better schemes.. Then, not so good, in fact, in his last game in Buffalo against the Chiefs had 8 targets for 3 receptions for 21 yards. Pretty crappy for  #1 WR in the playoffs, and this was not the first time he disappeared in the playoffs. 

 

What a lot of Bills fans don't get is that opposing teams pick their poison on how they want to stop an offense like Buffalo. The Bills have a speedy WR in Curtis Samuel, who runs a 4.31-4.37, who has enough speed to catch those deep balls, "IF" Buffalo wanted to throw deep. Palmer is another who can get separation "IF" the Bills choose to throw to him. Right now, Palmer has a completion percentage of 50% which is not that good. 

 

A lot of the Buffalo offense comes down to how much Joah Allen trusts his receivers. Shakir and Coleman both have 29 targets each, and Coleman has a better success percentage in catches at 69%. Shakir is at 55.2, Kincade is at 66.7. Knox at 60%. Moore has a 40%. Whom do you think JA trusts the most?

The Buffalo offense under Joe Brady has become a "run first" offense with a tough, gritty pound-it-out run game. This has improved the offense by keeping turnovers somewhat limited, as Josh doesn't need to put on the cape and take as many chances. Buffalo can still throw the ball better than most, as we go back and watch that fourth quarter against the Ravens.

 

Buffalo, with their bend but don't break defense, means they don't want to give up the big play, so they allow teams to nickel and dime them up the field, with the Bills looking for them to make a mistake along the way. Last season, they did as Buffalo led the league in turnover ratio at +24. Meaning they also didn't turn the ball over on offense by taking chances with low-percentage pass plays. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is exactly correct and what the Bills want to do... 100%...

However, all that being said, I don't think the Bills want to stall out on these drives and put themselves into longer down and distance. Penalties aside which always seem to rear their ugly head from time to time. 

At the risk of beating a dead horse... The Bills have become one of the best run offenses in the NFL... They have earned that... So... every time they get a team into base defense...that is earned. They Drafted Dalton Kincaid...at least I imagine...for exactly this...mismatches... So when a team like NE presents the Bills with base defense 14 times in a game, they are basically saying...we are going to give you a mismatch...probably a LB on a TE... we dare you to take it... And the Bills instead ran into that base D 12 out of the 14 times. The 2 times they passed it... 2-2...43 yards...

These passes vs base D are generally not going to be field stretching passes to WR's, because most of those times the Bills will be in 12 or 13... They will be chain movers mostly... Probably designed... Watch around the NFL you will see this constantly... In fact NE is very efficient at this with their TE's, especially Henry... I think if they can just bump that % in a game like Sunday night's from 14% to 50%, you're going to see a HUGE improvement. Teams will be on their heels more in base D, and probably more reluctant to use it, which means the run game is even more effective...

In theory of course... 

[Kornfed]

Doesn’t matter if Palmer is getting separation if he’s the 3rd or 4th read on play called. Didn’t seem as though there was time to read that deep last week. 

Edited 19 minutes ago by Kornfed