Trading for a player mid-season...

[boyst]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Exactly. I’m not saying that AJ Brown is available or gettable. Hypothetically though, if the Bills added him tomorrow, what would their record be the rest of the year? Would they lose a game? 

thank god we got 3 starting calibre tight ends though!

 

i don't want to get rid of one.... but we never should have drafted kincaid

[Dunkirk Donski]

18 minutes ago, boyst said:

thank god we got 3 starting calibre tight ends though!

 

i don't want to get rid of one.... but we never should have drafted kincaid

Explain...

[mjt328]

Just a thought about trades in general.  While the overall draft is very important for the foundation of a team, I think the value of most individual picks is vastly overrated.

 

First round picks are considered absolute gold around the league.  But think about what they actually turn into.  Very few turn into superstars outside of the Top 5-10.  Most are solid starters.  A handful are total busts.  After Josh Allen, Beane has spent 1st Round Picks on the following players:

- Tremaine Edmunds

- Ed Oliver

- Greg Rousseau

- Kaiir Elam

- Dalton Kincaid

- Keon Coleman + DeWayne Carter (technically a trade back)

- Maxwell Hairston

 

I would argue that none of these players makes a huge impact on the team.  Every single one of them is tradeable.  If you would have been given the chance to trade that 1st Round Pick for a superstar BEFORE the draft, most would give an emphatic no.  But 1-2 years later, none of these players could be swapped for anyone close to a superstar level.  

 

The one time Beane traded a 1st Round Pick for a player (Stefon Diggs), it gave us a Top 5 WR for three seasons.  Maybe the Los Angeles Rams were onto something a few years ago.  Everyone laughed at them for "mortgaging their future" and trading away all their top picks.  But it resulted in a Super Bowl win, and they were able to keep a solid roster in place by drafting well in the later rounds.

 

[boyst]

13 minutes ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

Explain...

Explain what part? I don't think we had any business drafting a TE with a 1st round pick when we should have had a more thorough plan being that this FO should have had a plan to move on from Diggs or contingency plans to get weapons for Josh not involving Kincaid being picked.

[BigDingus]

I'd be willing to part with 1st & 2nd round picks for AJ Brown or any good CB. 

 

I have more faith in a KNOWN good player than whoever Beane & McDermott spend those picks on. 

 

Out of the last 4 or 5 drafts, who is one 1st or 2nd rounder we've taken that's truly untradeable? James Cook? And even with him, half of yall were all about trading him this off season. 

 

None of those guys are as valuable as the picks we took them with. 

 

1) Groot = Would anyone trade a 1st rounder for him? 

2) Boogie = Taken with a 2nd, traded along with a 7th round pick for a 6th

3) Elam = Taken with a 1st, traded along with a 6th for a 5th + 7th 

4) Cook = ✅️

5) Kincaid = Would anyone trade a 1st for him?

6) Torrence = Probably would command a 2nd round pick ✅️

7) Keon = Would he command a 2nd round pick? 

8 ) Bishop = Nobody would trade a 2nd for Cole

 

Too early to tell if Hairston or TJ Sanders would ever get back equivalent picks.

 

The point is our draft picks are more valuable BEFORE we use them most of the time, so why not leverage that value for ESTABLISHED good players? 

 

It's like if someone offered you $100k, but you passed that up for $100k in lottery tickets hoping to win millions. 

[Dunkirk Donski]

5 minutes ago, boyst said:

Explain what part? I don't think we had any business drafting a TE with a 1st round pick when we should have had a more thorough plan being that this FO should have had a plan to move on from Diggs or contingency plans to get weapons for Josh not involving Kincaid being picked.

I'm more of a both/and guy myself.  Obviously we need more at WR than what we have but Kincaid was totally worth it at pick 25.  

[stlbills13]

I also just want to see a guy like Hancock get a jersey every game and see more snaps. I'm all for making a trade and I'm actually a believer that all contenders always need to make some sort of move to avoid complacency and keep guys on their toes. But a Hancock or Jackson cannot be worse than what we're putting on the field right now

[TheFunPolice]

it's football... Let's not act like it's rocket science. 

 

Give a good NFL player  few weeks to ramp up and he'll be fine for the playoffs especially, which is when it matters. 

[Warriorspikes51]

18 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

it's football... Let's not act like it's rocket science. 

 

Give a good NFL player  few weeks to ramp up and he'll be fine for the playoffs especially, which is when it matters. 

not very likely under this staff IMO.   Unless he's a legit talented starter.....even then it's  a toss up 

17 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

Bills need AJ. 

the more I think about it.....the more he seems like a player we wouldn't be interested in trading for

He's too much of a headcase.    Olave seems much more realistic 

 

 

 

DT Simmons from Titans would be fantastic.  Him and Oliver together could make a massive difference in the playoffs

I'm guessing the $ makes it unlikely 

Edited 2 hours ago by Warriorspikes51

[Rigotz]

20 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

There is the issue!  You, respectfully, have the wrong objective.  We showed patience in 2017, 2018, and 2019.  The core of the team was built by 2020.   We even endured the purge and reboot. We are no longer patient.

Many (probably the majority at this point) of us are no longer interested in teambuilding.  We really are only interested in a Championship!  I don't care about 2026 or beyond.  The Rams didn't either when they got Von and they won it all. 

We have the MVP of the league, if you are not doing everything to win a championship this year then you are doing a disservice to Allen and to your fans.  We have no idea how long he is going to be able to play at this high a level. 

 

 

Respectfully, I think this is an issue with the fan base... as evidenced by everyone hating my thread!

 

Everyone is starting to get impatient with this window and they're clamoring for bad long term decisions to be made. 

 

The most common theme I've read in this thread was "Rasul was actually really good for half a season!" or "Cooper helped us a little bit!"

 

A 3rd round pick is an opportunity to potentially get a YOUNG SUPERSTAR on a cheap contract.

 

Deone Walker was a 4th round pick and look at the impact he's already having as a rookie. I want as many of those guys as possible.

 

You're all free to disagree, hate, laugh ... whatever you want. I'm on the side of not panicking. 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Rigotz said:

 

Respectfully, I think this is an issue with the fan base... as evidenced by everyone hating my thread!

 

Everyone is starting to get impatient with this window and they're clamoring for bad long term decisions to be made. 

 

The most common theme I've read in this thread was "Rasul was actually really good for half a season!" or "Cooper helped us a little bit!"

 

A 3rd round pick is an opportunity to potentially get a YOUNG SUPERSTAR on a cheap contract.

 

Deone Walker was a 4th round pick and look at the impact he's already having as a rookie. I want as many of those guys as possible.

 

You're all free to disagree, hate, laugh ... whatever you want. I'm on the side of not panicking. 

 

 

But you can’t include Deone Walker without including Landon Jackson. You can’t selectively pick the guy that looks really good without excluding the guy that can’t get a jersey on game day.

 

No one is advocating for bad long term decisions. 🤣🤣 Everyone, that disagrees with you, is saying, “in 2025 teams improve in season via trades. The Bills have a very good shot at the 1 seed and homefield advantage. They should make a move(s) with 2025 in mind before worrying about the future. You never know how long that window is open for. 6 weeks ago the Ravens were the Super Bowl favorites. They may be 1-5 in 3 days. Tomorrow isn’t promised.”

[blitzboy54]

A 3rd for Amari was highway robbery. Beane seems to be on the short end of these deals. Even getting Diggs which was well worth the price was overpaid relative to what Arizona gave up for Hopkins. 

3rd for Douglas was good value for a multi year starter though. 

[Gunsgoodtime]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Just a thought about trades in general.  While the overall draft is very important for the foundation of a team, I think the value of most individual picks is vastly overrated.

 

First round picks are considered absolute gold around the league.  But think about what they actually turn into.  Very few turn into superstars outside of the Top 5-10.  Most are solid starters.  A handful are total busts.  After Josh Allen, Beane has spent 1st Round Picks on the following players:

- Tremaine Edmunds

- Ed Oliver

- Greg Rousseau

- Kaiir Elam

- Dalton Kincaid

- Keon Coleman + DeWayne Carter (technically a trade back)

- Maxwell Hairston

 

I would argue that none of these players makes a huge impact on the team.  Every single one of them is tradeable.  If you would have been given the chance to trade that 1st Round Pick for a superstar BEFORE the draft, most would give an emphatic no.  But 1-2 years later, none of these players could be swapped for anyone close to a superstar level.  

 

The one time Beane traded a 1st Round Pick for a player (Stefon Diggs), it gave us a Top 5 WR for three seasons.  Maybe the Los Angeles Rams were onto something a few years ago.  Everyone laughed at them for "mortgaging their future" and trading away all their top picks.  But it resulted in a Super Bowl win, and they were able to keep a solid roster in place by drafting well in the later rounds.

 

That's because Beane is a horrible drafter and at FA acquisitions.  His strong desire to not draft certain positions and talent evaluation hurts a lot.   You could be blindfolded throwing darts and hit more than Beane

Edited 2 hours ago by Gunsgoodtime

[That's No Moon]

1 hour ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

I'm more of a both/and guy myself.  Obviously we need more at WR than what we have but Kincaid was totally worth it at pick 25.  

We could have stayed put and taken Sam LaPorta who is an actual Tight End not a slow WR but they gave up pick 130 to move up. In that 5th round the Bills took Justin Shorter. Puka Nacua was on the board for that pick and also would have been on the board at 130.

 

Whether it's Kincaid or the coaches, he hasn't been the game changing player we were sold that night.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

17 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Is there a CB worthy of being traded for out there?

Dallas looking to trade Elam? 🤔

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

 

Respectfully, I think this is an issue with the fan base... as evidenced by everyone hating my thread!

 

Everyone is starting to get impatient with this window and they're clamoring for bad long term decisions to be made. 

 

The most common theme I've read in this thread was "Rasul was actually really good for half a season!" or "Cooper helped us a little bit!"

 

A 3rd round pick is an opportunity to potentially get a YOUNG SUPERSTAR on a cheap contract.

 

Deone Walker was a 4th round pick and look at the impact he's already having as a rookie. I want as many of those guys as possible.

 

You're all free to disagree, hate, laugh ... whatever you want. I'm on the side of not panicking. 

 

 

Trading a 3rd round lottery ticket for a proven NFL player is not necessarily a bad decision. I think you are overvaluing draft picks, while at the same time I am admittedly not caring as much about the future. Its a balance of course. Drafting Cook when they already had a RB looks like a great decision. That said I would still take a half season and a shot at the SuperBowl with Amari Cooper over the chance you draft another Boogie Basham. 

[billsfan714]

1 hour ago, blitzboy54 said:

A 3rd for Amari was highway robbery. Beane seems to be on the short end of these deals. Even getting Diggs which was well worth the price was overpaid relative to what Arizona gave up for Hopkins. 

3rd for Douglas was good value for a multi year starter though. 

Didnt the Diggs pick, just the first pick alone turn into Justin Jefferson?

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, boyst said:

thank god we got 3 starting calibre tight ends though!

 

i don't want to get rid of one.... but we never should have drafted kincaid

 

Who would you have rather drafted than Kincaid? Look at that draft and look at the next 20 picks after Kincaid the best "swap" is either a corner in Joey Porter Jr or another TE in Sam Laporta. I think if you look at the draft in 2023 the Bills simply were drafting too low to get one of the blue chip WR's like Zay Flowers, Addison, JSN, or Q.Johnson (and QJ is only now in year 3 starting to breakout a bit). The Bills were drafting 27th that year. Once Addison got off the board at pick 23 all those WR's were gone. There were from picks 20-23 in that draft a WR taken in 4 straight picks. Hard to say trade up when that's not always easy to do unless you massively overpay to get to pick 18/19 range. 

 

I think Kincaid on a smaller trade up was the right move given how that draft fell. Sometimes getting the right pick is about luck. 

[BillsShredder83]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Pretty sure Douglas led the NFL in havoc plays the rest of the year after he came to the Bills. The Bills scored 7.4 more PPG and threw for 60 yards more per game with Cooper in the lineup than with him out. Attribute that wherever you want but the offense performed significantly better in the games he played. 

 

You have Josh Allen turning 30. There is no more waiting. The league has changed. In season deals weren’t really a thing until the last 3 or 4 years. They happened but not regularly. The line of thinking that you wait until the spring is an antiquated line of thinking. That’s not how it works anymore. 

I know youre more plugged in than 99% here.  Any idea if the bolded is widely thought around NFL FO's as of late?  Obv entire offices arent going to be aligned on everything, but any sense if this logic is picking up steam?  From the outside it appears that way.  Certainly not expecting an NHL type deadline, but hoping it keeps trending upwards this year.  Seems like weve seen a decent amount of moves this early into season already

[billsfan89]

5 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Trading a 3rd round lottery ticket for a proven NFL player is not necessarily a bad decision. I think you are overvaluing draft picks, while at the same time I am admittedly not caring as much about the future. Its a balance of course. Drafting Cook when they already had a RB looks like a great decision. That said I would still take a half season and a shot at the SuperBowl with Amari Cooper over the chance you draft another Boogie Basham. 

 

I also think if you could swap a late 3rd with a bad team's 5th to help you now that's not that much of a draft sacrifice to add a piece to a contending team that could make a difference. The Bills 3rd round pick is likely to be somewhere around picks 88-96. The 10th pick of round 5 is pick is the 145th pick in the draft. That's only dipping 1.5 rounds or so in terms of selections. This Bills regime tends to do OK in terms of finding players in the mid-rounds. So I would gladly take a chance on losing 50-60 slots on a draft pick if it adds a meaningful starting caliber piece.