All 22 Review: Bills vs Patriots

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Going to give these a shot.  Likely not going to get too far into the weeds on it because it takes a lifetime to watch these things, but its helpful from a fan perspective to get an idea of the nuts and bolts.   I'll start with the offense and go by half.    If I have time I'll add the defense later on.    

 

1st Half Summary- Blame it on the coordinator

I think it's often too easy to blame coordinators for bad football, especially if you haven't watched the game tape to get a real understanding of what prompted certain calls.   That said, in the 1st half the Bills were essentially running the throw stuff at the wall and see if it sticks scheme.  The personnel groupings and formations were all over the place.  They tried everything from 10 personnel with 4 wide and trips, to 21 and 22 personnel with bunch formations, often using one wideout.   It was like Joe Brady was trying to reinvent the wheel of high school play calling.   Brady came into the game knowing the Patriots run a heavily man-based defense, and most of what they were trying to do was win outside the hashes with wideouts who can't beat man coverage.    The game plan in the first half was lazy, and akin to a coach deciding to watch zero tape of the opposing defense.   

 

Notes:

Its man defense- where are the crossers, digs, and slants?  

Multiple instances of wideouts and tight ends running short of the sticks

Need to start running more out of the shotgun

 

2nd Half Summary- Blame it on the Quarterback

The Bills were in 11 personnel around 25% of the time in the first half.   In the second half they stopped getting cute and ran 11 personnel 72% of the time.    On top of that they finally ran a crossing route!  A lot has been made about the wideouts being bad in this offense.  While they aren't speed demons who can split two high safety or win on go routes, they can produce when asked to do what they do well.    That said, the QB needs to be who he was in the first four games and take what the defense gives him.   Sadly, that's not the QB the Bills got in the second half.  While he was more productive, the All 22 showed he was dead set on doing what he wanted rather than taking what was there.

 

Have screenshots of the plays below but no clue how to post.  

 

5:17 Left 3rd Quarter- Kincaid absolutely smokes the safety at the same time Josh tries the back shoulder to  Shavers.  If he waits a second longer, he likely has Kincaid for 6.

 

11:18 Left 4th Quarter- Crossing route is wide open to Knox.  Josh comes off the read.

 

5:11 Left 4th Quarter- Josh doesnt take the easy outbreaking route to Kincaid.  Instead he throws to Cook on the sideline covered and is lucky to get a PI.

 

5:01 Left 4th Quarter- This one is on Samuel- Call looks to be a Go or a Post.   Corner drops off 10 yards.  Instead of breaking off his route to a out or comeback Samuel keeps running towards the CB.  Would have been an easy 6-yard gain plus space to run.

 

4:52 Left 4th- Josh doesnt take the open crosser to Coleman.  Cook doesnt block free rusher.  Sack

 

2:43 Left 4th- Josh has Cook wide open on the crosser, doesnt take it for an easy 5 yard gain.  Also has Palmer on an outbreaking route for 7 or more. Scrambles, has Knox open coming back towards the hash for a 17 yard pass, doesnt take it.  Launches a pass across the field to Coleman in the back of the endzone.   Out of bounds.

 

2:31 Left 4th- Shakir and Kincaid immediately open on crosser short of sticks.   Johnson has single coverage on a wheel route to the endzone-why isnt Cook in the game!  Samuel wide open at the front of opposite side of the endzone- likely an impossible throw.

 

 

Game Summary- The good news is the Bills beat themselves.  I am not sure what Joe Brady was doing in the first half of the game.  I am also not sure what Josh Allen was doing in the 2nd half.   The Bills need another outside WR, but they arent as hapless there as I thought before I watched the film.   Put this one away, dont shoot yourself in the foot next time you play the Pats.   The Patriots didnt do anything great on defense.  I have every expectation that Allen wont play like this in the second meeting.  

 

Player Grades

 

Bull Market

The Offensive Line- They lost a few reps but otherwise they were fantastic.  Specifically, the left side of the line played very well

 

Kincaid- He had a great night and it would have been even better if he played more reps.  I dont care if its as a slot, outside WR, or either tight end position, he needs to be in the game unless he's injured or needs a breather.   His blocking still leaves a little to be desired.  But outside of Cook or Allen he is the best weapon the Bills have on offense.  

 

Better than I Expected

Dawson Knox- Not flashy but he did his job.   He was open when he needed to be, whether the QB saw him or not.   

 

Josh Palmer- Not a game breaker by any means but he is the best outside receiver the Bills have in terms of understanding leverage and route running.   Needs to be on the field more. 

 

Bear Market

Keon Coleman- He caught a touchdown but the tape isn't good.   He flat out can't beat corners off the line in man coverage.   The coordinator doesn't put him in advantageous positions.     Much better in the second half because Brady finally started calling crossing routes.  But he is a very limited player at this point in his career.  

 

Shavers- Not to dunk on a kid that barely made the team but for those of you waiting for him to be the savior at WR, stop.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't have all 22 but I will comment some. For your first part when talking about Brady "throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks..." That kind of aligns with what he said in the presser the other day. Im going to paraphrase here but he said something like "they wanted to see how the pats were going to play/attack us" or something to that effect.

As for second half Josh, again I don't have all22, but he didn't have a very good game IMO. I'm sure there are things he would like a redo on and I expect that he will have a better game on the next meetup.

[somnus00]

Single father with a toddler here. I don't have the time to get into this kind of analysis, so thank you guys. I have a genuine question for you.

 

What seems to be the identity of this passing offense? To me, it looks like Brady still doesn't know what he wants the passing offense to be.

 

They're have been a few drives this season where the passing looked quick and decisive. I loved seeing it as I think it opens up the rest of the offense. People say the WR corps is terrible. I don't necessarily agree with that take. Kincaid is elite, Shakir is a good slot. Palmer and Moore have had success as separators. So what's the deal?

 

Anyway, thanks again. 

[BuffaloMatt]

I hated this game in so many ways. 

[PatsFanNH]

3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Going to give these a shot.  Likely not going to get too far into the weeds on it because it takes a lifetime to watch these things, but its helpful from a fan perspective to get an idea of the nuts and bolts.   I'll start with the offense and go by half.    If I have time I'll add the defense later on.    

 

1st Half Summary- Blame it on the coordinator

I think it's often too easy to blame coordinators for bad football, especially if you haven't watched the game tape to get a real understanding of what prompted certain calls.   That said, in the 1st half the Bills were essentially running the throw stuff at the wall and see if it sticks scheme.  The personnel groupings and formations were all over the place.  They tried everything from 10 personnel with 4 wide and trips, to 21 and 22 personnel with bunch formations, often using one wideout.   It was like Joe Brady was trying to reinvent the wheel of high school play calling.   Brady came into the game knowing the Patriots run a heavily man-based defense, and most of what they were trying to do was win outside the hashes with wideouts who can't beat man coverage.    The game plan in the first half was lazy, and akin to a coach deciding to watch zero tape of the opposing defense.   

 

Notes:

Its man defense- where are the crossers, digs, and slants?  

Multiple instances of wideouts and tight ends running short of the sticks

Need to start running more out of the shotgun

 

2nd Half Summary- Blame it on the Quarterback

The Bills were in 11 personnel around 25% of the time in the first half.   In the second half they stopped getting cute and ran 11 personnel 72% of the time.    On top of that they finally ran a crossing route!  A lot has been made about the wideouts being bad in this offense.  While they aren't speed demons who can split two high safety or win on go routes, they can produce when asked to do what they do well.    That said, the QB needs to be who he was in the first four games and take what the defense gives him.   Sadly, that's not the QB the Bills got in the second half.  While he was more productive, the All 22 showed he was dead set on doing what he wanted rather than taking what was there.

 

Have screenshots of the plays below but no clue how to post.  

 

5:17 Left 3rd Quarter- Kincaid absolutely smokes the safety at the same time Josh tries the back shoulder to  Shavers.  If he waits a second longer, he likely has Kincaid for 6.

 

11:18 Left 4th Quarter- Crossing route is wide open to Knox.  Josh comes off the read.

 

5:11 Left 4th Quarter- Josh doesnt take the easy outbreaking route to Kincaid.  Instead he throws to Cook on the sideline covered and is lucky to get a PI.

 

5:01 Left 4th Quarter- This one is on Samuel- Call looks to be a Go or a Post.   Corner drops off 10 yards.  Instead of breaking off his route to a out or comeback Samuel keeps running towards the CB.  Would have been an easy 6-yard gain plus space to run.

 

4:52 Left 4th- Josh doesnt take the open crosser to Coleman.  Cook doesnt block free rusher.  Sack

 

2:43 Left 4th- Josh has Cook wide open on the crosser, doesnt take it for an easy 5 yard gain.  Also has Palmer on an outbreaking route for 7 or more. Scrambles, has Knox open coming back towards the hash for a 17 yard pass, doesnt take it.  Launches a pass across the field to Coleman in the back of the endzone.   Out of bounds.

 

2:31 Left 4th- Shakir and Kincaid immediately open on crosser short of sticks.   Johnson has single coverage on a wheel route to the endzone-why isnt Cook in the game!  Samuel wide open at the front of opposite side of the endzone- likely an impossible throw.

 

 

Game Summary- The good news is the Bills beat themselves.  I am not sure what Joe Brady was doing in the first half of the game.  I am also not sure what Josh Allen was doing in the 2nd half.   The Bills need another outside WR, but they arent as hapless there as I thought before I watched the film.   Put this one away, dont shoot yourself in the foot next time you play the Pats.   The Patriots didnt do anything great on defense.  I have every expectation that Allen wont play like this in the second meeting.  

 

Player Grades

 

Bull Market

The Offensive Line- They lost a few reps but otherwise they were fantastic.  Specifically, the left side of the line played very well

 

Kincaid- He had a great night and it would have been even better if he played more reps.  I dont care if its as a slot, outside WR, or either tight end position, he needs to be in the game unless he's injured or needs a breather.   His blocking still leaves a little to be desired.  But outside of Cook or Allen he is the best weapon the Bills have on offense.  

 

Better than I Expected

Dawson Knox- Not flashy but he did his job.   He was open when he needed to be, whether the QB saw him or not.   

 

Josh Palmer- Not a game breaker by any means but he is the best outside receiver the Bills have in terms of understanding leverage and route running.   Needs to be on the field more. 

 

Bear Market

Keon Coleman- He caught a touchdown but the tape isn't good.   He flat out can't beat corners off the line in man coverage.   The coordinator doesn't put him in advantageous positions.     Much better in the second half because Brady finally started calling crossing routes.  But he is a very limited player at this point in his career.  

 

Shavers- Not to dunk on a kid that barely made the team but for those of you waiting for him to be the savior at WR, stop.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think anyone watched the Pats game films should KNOW you attack the D with your TE since our LB are slow as heck.. you don’t challenge the CB who are very good and 1 IMO Elite.. 

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

I think anyone watched the Pats game films should KNOW you attack the D with your TE since our LB are slow as heck.. you don’t challenge the CB who are very good and 1 IMO Elite.. 

Kincaid could have had a bigger game than he did.  He looked fantastic 

[Breakout Squad]

5 hours ago, ScotSHO said:

Josh was likely concussed.  He got his head slapped off the turf early in the 3rd quarter. 

 

Josh is also a pro's pro, so he'll never get pulled unless the lights go out for >10 seconds.

Seriously? I didn’t see that. 

[thenorthremembers]

13 hours ago, somnus00 said:

Single father with a toddler here. I don't have the time to get into this kind of analysis, so thank you guys. I have a genuine question for you.

 

What seems to be the identity of this passing offense? To me, it looks like Brady still doesn't know what he wants the passing offense to be.

 

They're have been a few drives this season where the passing looked quick and decisive. I loved seeing it as I think it opens up the rest of the offense. People say the WR corps is terrible. I don't necessarily agree with that take. Kincaid is elite, Shakir is a good slot. Palmer and Moore have had success as separators. So what's the deal?

 

Anyway, thanks again. 

 

Enjoy Fatherhood.  The hardest, most amazing and rewarding part of life.   

 

On the passing identity, its hard to say.  I think they are still in the process of deciding who their best options are at outside receiver.    The personnel groupings from the last game were all over the place.   Part of me wonders if they are trying to see what they have from Samuel there.   I would say at current their identity is strictly matchup based. 

 

Going forward the Bills passing identity will be determined by two things, how the opposing defenses play them, and how creative they get with Dalton Kincaid.  Kincaid is the only pass catcher they have that can win consistently against man coverage.    Once they get into the playoffs, he shouldn't come off the field for anything but a breather.   They also need to figure out how to get James Cook involved in the passing game.  He is too good to be coming off the field. 

 

Long story short, the Bills are short to intermediate passing game currently missing the ability to hit plays in the deep third-Gos, Posts, and Corners because they lack both ability and speed in their receiving core.   Shakir is a good slot receiver, but he is a zone beater.  When he has to try and beat man he struggles.  He is also being doubled more this year.   Samuel's play speed when space isnt manufactured doesnt look great to me.   Coleman you may as well forget getting seperation. 

 

Teams that continue to play a Cover 2 Shell against them are almost doing them a kindness.  

Edited 2 hours ago by thenorthremembers

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, ScotSHO said:

Josh was likely concussed.  He got his head slapped off the turf early in the 3rd quarter. 

 

Josh is also a pro's pro, so he'll never get pulled unless the lights go out for >10 seconds.

 

 

I did wonder about that. Far from a sure thing, but yeah, it's possible. He didn't play like Josh, but that does happen sometimes even when non-concussed.

[MJS]

16 hours ago, ScotSHO said:

Josh was likely concussed.  He got his head slapped off the turf early in the 3rd quarter. 

 

Josh is also a pro's pro, so he'll never get pulled unless the lights go out for >10 seconds.

Every time Allen plays poorly, people claim this. Every single time. And it is just such an empty claim. There was nothing to indicate Allen was concussed.

[Marcus Aurelius]

22 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

Enjoy Fatherhood.  The hardest, most amazing and rewarding part of life.   

 

On the passing identity, its hard to say.  I think they are still in the process of deciding who their best options are at outside receiver.    The personnel groupings from the last game were all over the place.   Part of me wonders if they are trying to see what they have from Samuel there.   I would say at current their identity is strictly matchup based. 

 

Going forward the Bills passing identity will be determined by two things, how the opposing defenses play them, and how creative they get with Dalton Kincaid.  Kincaid is the only pass catcher they have that can win consistently against man coverage.    Once they get into the playoffs, he shouldn't come off the field for anything but a breather.   They also need to figure out how to get James Cook involved in the passing game.  He is too good to be coming off the field. 

 

Long story short, the Bills are short to intermediate passing game currently missing the ability to hit plays in the deep third-Gos, Posts, and Corners because they lack both ability and speed in their receiving core.   Shakir is a good slot receiver, but he is a zone beater.  When he has to try and beat man he struggles.  He is also being doubled more this year.   Samuel's play speed when space isnt manufactured doesnt look great to me.   Coleman you may as well forget getting seperation. 

 

Teams that continue to play a Cover 2 Shell against them are almost doing them a kindness.  

Thank you for your analysis. What's bugging me is how the Pats stopped the Bills running game. That was a shocker. What did you see here?

[DapperCam]

10 minutes ago, MJS said:

Every time Allen plays poorly, people claim this. Every single time. And it is just such an empty claim. There was nothing to indicate Allen was concussed.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the games he’s getting knocked around and taking hard hits are some of his worst games.

 

I agree there’s no evidence of a concussion specifically here. I did say during the game “he’s going to need an ice bath after this one.”

Edited 1 hour ago by DapperCam

[MJS]

11 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the games he’s getting knocked around and taking hard hits are some of his worst games.

 

I agree there’s no evidence of a concussion specifically here. I did say during the game “he’s going to need an ice bath after this one.”

Because he starts pressing more and tries to scramble more. He bails from clean pockets, etc.

14 minutes ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

Thank you for your analysis. What's bugging me is how the Pats stopped the Bills running game. That was a shocker. What did you see here?

Well for one thing, the Bills didn't run it as much, and for another thing, they had Cook on the sideline far more. It seemed they wanted to give Cook a lesser workload.

[2003Contenders]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Because he starts pressing more and tries to scramble more. He bails from clean pockets, etc.

I do honestly believe that having Diggs in the house -- and watching him torch our defense -- was a contributing factor in Josh's pressing. All season long, Josh had done a great job of being smart and patient with the ball and taking what the defense gave him. He wasn't horrible Sunday night, but he certainly regressed to "hero ball" Josh on some occasions.

[BCAS Baritone]

14 hours ago, somnus00 said:

Single father with a toddler here. I don't have the time to get into this kind of analysis, so thank you guys. I have a genuine question for you.

 

What seems to be the identity of this passing offense? To me, it looks like Brady still doesn't know what he wants the passing offense to be.

 

They're have been a few drives this season where the passing looked quick and decisive. I loved seeing it as I think it opens up the rest of the offense. People say the WR corps is terrible. I don't necessarily agree with that take. Kincaid is elite, Shakir is a good slot. Palmer and Moore have had success as separators. So what's the deal?

 

Anyway, thanks again. 

I don't think it's possible for them to have an "identity", where they run what they want to run every week and beat you with it.  They need to change it up each week based on the opposition.  "Everybody eats" shouldn't apply within a single game, it does apply across the entire season.  One week it's Kincaid, another it's Shakir, another Palmer, another Coleman.  Any given week somebody should be the primary focus, but it shouldn't be the same guy every week.

[thenorthremembers]

44 minutes ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

Thank you for your analysis. What's bugging me is how the Pats stopped the Bills running game. That was a shocker. What did you see here?

 

There were a few things I thought went into the poor run game.  Collinsworth mentioned one on the broadcast.   The Bills personnel and where the Quarterback lines up under center tips the defense off to whether its run or pass.   Against the Patriots 80% of the snaps they took from under center were run plays.   Even the personnel groupings were a bit of a tip off.  78% of the run plays came out of 11 or 13 personnel.  Essentially, Brady didnt make them guess enough. 

 

Joe Marino mentioned the Bills ran a lot of 11 personnel.  Which is true.  But when they ran in 11 personnel, even if they had trips to one side, they ran the receivers tight to the tackles rather than outside the hashes.     The Bills ran 46% of their run plays out of some sort of bunch formations.  Which means in those instances they were facing some variation of an 8, 9, or even 10 man boxes.  Even if the line plays well, which they did, its hard to make progress against stacked boxes.   Further evidence the Patriots were not very worried about play action or the wideouts ability to beat anyone over the top.  Next time they play a team like this it would be helpful to show more runs out of shotgun and spread formations.  Right now Brady is tipping his hand. 

 

Lastly, give the Patriots credit, their linebackers are extremely patient in the run game.   They are sound with their gap integrity and dont overrun plays.   Brady needs to make teams like this more uncomfortable with misdirection.   They ran that jet sweep, but never set it up with fakes, or motion across from one side to the other.  Daboll was a master at this.   He could show you three plays out of the same look and just build and build on it.  I miss that aspect of his coaching. 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by thenorthremembers

[thenorthremembers]

16 minutes ago, BCAS Baritone said:

I don't think it's possible for them to have an "identity", where they run what they want to run every week and beat you with it.  They need to change it up each week based on the opposition.  "Everybody eats" shouldn't apply within a single game, it does apply across the entire season.  One week it's Kincaid, another it's Shakir, another Palmer, another Coleman.  Any given week somebody should be the primary focus, but it shouldn't be the same guy every week.

Fully agree.  They dont have a guy who can consistently beat teams week in and week out without help from the coordinators plan.   

[chris heff]

15 hours ago, somnus00 said:

Single father with a toddler here. I don't have the time to get into this kind of analysis, so thank you guys. I have a genuine question for you.

 

What seems to be the identity of this passing offense? To me, it looks like Brady still doesn't know what he wants the passing offense to be.

 

They're have been a few drives this season where the passing looked quick and decisive. I loved seeing it as I think it opens up the rest of the offense. People say the WR corps is terrible. I don't necessarily agree with that take. Kincaid is elite, Shakir is a good slot. Palmer and Moore have had success as separators. So what's the deal?

 

Anyway, thanks again. 

I don’t have an answer, Just more questions. Am I missing something with Moore? Everyone keeps saying Bills can’t stretch the field, doesn’t Moore have like 4.32 or 4.34 speed? Is Shavers so important on special teams that he should be active rather than Moore? 

[Mat68]

The “deep diving” into this game is way too much.  The coaches are bad, the defense is bad, the wrs are bad. 2 flukey fumbles don’t happen the game is over by half time.  That isn’t even including the redzone pick Allen has never thrown.  No different than the, Jets, Dolphins, or Saints games.  Going into the game, how do those teams win?  Multiple turnovers.  The Patriots got them and Buffalo lost a game they shouldnt.  NE is closer to NO than they are close to Buffalo.  Deep dive, dont beat yourself by being careless with the rock.  The end. 

[Roundybout]

13 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

. 

 

Lastly, give the Patriots credit, their linebackers are extremely patient in the run game.   They are sound with their gap integrity and dont overrun plays.   Brady needs to make teams like this more uncomfortable with misdirection.   They ran that jet sweep, but never set it up with fakes, or motion across from one side to the other.  Daboll was a master at this.   He could show you three plays out of the same look and just build and build on it.  I miss that aspect of his coaching. 

 

 

This is 100% a Vrabel thing and it shows. We historically struggle against him. 

[finn]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

Teams that continue to play a Cover 2 Shell against them are almost doing them a kindness.  

Right. I mentioned elsewhere that the Pats are the first team to figure out that if you stop Cook, you stop the Bills. Allen could have eaten a sandwich on some of those pass plays, and even then his receivers evidently couldn't get open, or at least not when Allen was looking their way. 

 

Take-away: Elite receivers make so much money for a reason: They really do make a difference. "Everyone eats" is happy talk for "Our wide receivers are mediocre." Yes, the offense can and will still carry the defense to win a lot of games, but what an appalling waste of Allen's prime. It's like making Usain Bolt race wearing mud boots.