Keon WTF?

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I generally agree with your point here, I am usually very patient with letting young players develop. But as someone that really liked Coleman as a prospect I have to be honest about what he's doing on the field. I don't expect young players to be immediate superstars but you want to see some sort of arc of progress from them. Josh Allen is a classic example - he was a better player by the end of his rookie year and continued showing progress in his sophomore season. Coleman on the other hand ended his rookie season worse than it started, and to my eyes he has shown no improvement this year. Lack of separation I get and anticipated, but he's not even doing the things he's supposed to do well - fighting through contact, catching back shoulder throws, etc. He's not a Skyy Moore level bust who doesn't deserve to be on the field but his performance so far caps him as a WR4 type.

 

Not giving up on him yet but we really need to start seeing progress and I'm losing hope that that progress is going to show up out of the blue this year. He reportedly showed a ton of progress in camp but it hasn't translated to real games. Next year is big for him. He could still follow the Davante Adams/Nico Collins track of breaking out in his 3rd season. This year I just don't see it.

 

He didn't do those things particularly great in college though. That was part of the evaluation on Keon. He doesn't dominate enough at the catch point to compensate for the lack of separation. 

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We shouldn’t overreact to this because there are a lot of good players all over the map. At the same time, there are some extremes in here:

 

 

Beane knows nothing about WRs!  I hate this pick more than Elam

The only WR who is in even in the ballpark vicinity of worst efficiency  is Bub Means- whoever the hell that is

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We shouldn’t overreact to this because there are a lot of good players all over the map. At the same time, there are some extremes in here:

 

 

I have no problem steering away from Ladd, even though he’s great.

 

I just have a problem chasing after our big Kelvin Benjamin clone.

 

also, has anyone else realized the hype from Keon’s offseason probably came from abusing our weak secondary?

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I have no problem steering away from Ladd, even though he’s great.

 

I just have a problem chasing after our big Kelvin Benjamin clone.

 

also, has anyone else realized the hype from Keon’s offseason probably came from abusing our weak secondary?

I think that, paired with the Bills driving the narrative. They desperately needed him to be good so they went all-in on telling everyone that he would be.

[2003Contenders]

At a certain point we have to stop blaming coaches, the front office etc. for Keon's disappointing metrics to date -- and place the blame squarely where it lies: on the athlete himself.

 

We all knew going in then Coleman wasn't the fastest dude on the planet -- but plenty of all time great WRs (Rice, Irvin, etc.) were not blessed with great speed -- but managed to become what they were by an outstanding work ethic, supreme confidence -- and the belief and insistence that when the ball was in the air is was THEIRS.

 

When I watch Keon, I see a dude that runs lackadaisical routes -- and doesn't seem to fight all that hard to bring in the ball on those contested routes. I hate his body language. Given that he has been disciplined now on multiple occasions for conduct issues, his maturity and work ethic definitely have to be questioned.

 

I recall similar concerns about Eric Moulds after his first couple of seasons in the league. Eventually he matured and by year 3 developed into the kind of WR that had initially led the Bills to draft him in the 1st round. It's on Keon to decide himself whether he wants to put in the work and do what he can to rise to that next level. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, 2003Contenders said:

At a certain point we have to stop blaming coaches, the front office etc. for Keon's disappointing metrics to date -- and place the blame squarely where it lies: on the athlete himself.

 

We all knew going in then Coleman wasn't the fastest dude on the planet -- but plenty of all time great WRs (Rice, Irvin, etc.) were not blessed with great speed -- but managed to become what they were by an outstanding work ethic, supreme confidence -- and the belief and insistence that when the ball was in the air is was THEIRS.

 

When I watch Keon, I see a dude that runs lackadaisical routes -- and doesn't seem to fight all that hard to bring in the ball on those contested routes. I hate his body language. Given that he has been disciplined now on multiple occasions for conduct issues, his maturity and work ethic definitely have to be questioned.

 

I recall similar concerns about Eric Moulds after his first couple of seasons in the league. Eventually he matured and by year 3 developed into the kind of WR that had initially led the Bills to draft him in the 1st round. It's on Keon to decide himself whether he wants to put in the work and do what he can to rise to that next level. 

 

This is all fair, but I still say he simply wasn't talented enough to be worth the 33rd pick of a WR rich draft. So while he has to take some accountability too, I think it remains fair to question the selection and the process behind it.

[Pete]

Please do not ever use Keon and Moulds in the same sentence.  Moulds showed many signs of breaking out before his third year.  Moulds and Lee Evan’s are the best Bills WR the past 30 years 

[Brandon]

22 minutes ago, Pete said:

Please do not ever use Keon and Moulds in the same sentence.  Moulds showed many signs of breaking out before his third year.  Moulds and Lee Evan’s are the best Bills WR the past 30 years 

 

Moulds didn't have Josh Allen throwing the ball to him those first two years,  either.  Jim Kelly had a really rough first half to 1996,  leading to his retirement at the end off the season.  Then it got worse,  with Todd Collins,  Alex Van Pelt and Billy Joe Hobert starting games at QB in 1997.  

[DCOrange]

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I generally agree with your point here, I am usually very patient with letting young players develop. But as someone that really liked Coleman as a prospect I have to be honest about what he's doing on the field. I don't expect young players to be immediate superstars but you want to see some sort of arc of progress from them. Josh Allen is a classic example - he was a better player by the end of his rookie year and continued showing progress in his sophomore season. Coleman on the other hand ended his rookie season worse than it started, and to my eyes he has shown no improvement this year. Lack of separation I get and anticipated, but he's not even doing the things he's supposed to do well - fighting through contact, catching back shoulder throws, etc. He's not a Skyy Moore level bust who doesn't deserve to be on the field but his performance so far caps him as a WR4 type.

 

Not giving up on him yet but we really need to start seeing progress and I'm losing hope that that progress is going to show up out of the blue this year. He reportedly showed a ton of progress in camp but it hasn't translated to real games. Next year is big for him. He could still follow the Davante Adams/Nico Collins track of breaking out in his 3rd season. This year I just don't see it.

 Yeah I think this is pretty fair. In the same boat as you, I liked a bunch of the other prospects as well, but I was definitely happy to have Coleman. My hope was that, early on, he could be sort of the break glass in case of emergency type of guy; not the primary read but when plays break down, he can win a 50-50 ball for you. And that he'd just work his ass off and eventually become more than just that.

 

I could nitpick with you a little and say that I do think he's improved from year 1 to year 2 skill-wise (ex: think he's been much better with his releases against press coverage this season), but there's no denying that it hasn't translated into more production. Could also nitpick a little bit that I just don't think Josh has generally thrown the types of passes to Keon that take advantage of the skills that he does possess (the whole point of trusting him to win 50-50 balls is to give him a chance to go up and catch it where DBs can't reach the ball and Josh just doesn't throw the ball that way for whatever reason).

 

But ultimately, the production is what it is. Like you said, it's not like a Skyy Moore situation where he's unplayable but he's at best an okay WR3 right now, and with our roster being what it is, where him, Palmer, and Shavers are the only guys capable of lining up out wide, we're in a bad situation here because our roster essentially necessitates him playing the # of snaps reserved for a WR1 even though he's nowhere remotely close to that caliber right now.

[DCOrange]

51 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

At a certain point we have to stop blaming coaches, the front office etc. for Keon's disappointing metrics to date -- and place the blame squarely where it lies: on the athlete himself.

 

We all knew going in then Coleman wasn't the fastest dude on the planet -- but plenty of all time great WRs (Rice, Irvin, etc.) were not blessed with great speed -- but managed to become what they were by an outstanding work ethic, supreme confidence -- and the belief and insistence that when the ball was in the air is was THEIRS.

 

When I watch Keon, I see a dude that runs lackadaisical routes -- and doesn't seem to fight all that hard to bring in the ball on those contested routes. I hate his body language. Given that he has been disciplined now on multiple occasions for conduct issues, his maturity and work ethic definitely have to be questioned.

 

I recall similar concerns about Eric Moulds after his first couple of seasons in the league. Eventually he matured and by year 3 developed into the kind of WR that had initially led the Bills to draft him in the 1st round. It's on Keon to decide himself whether he wants to put in the work and do what he can to rise to that next level. 

This is the really disappointing part to me. In college, his film was littered with examples of him playing hard, bullying guys as a run blocker (not to mention the low-percentage highlight reel catches). I think the staff likely saw a lot of Josh in him: a guy that the metrics hated, but a guy with physical traits that couldn't be taught and a mean-streak on the field that would ultimately lead to him maximizing his potential. He has simply not been that guy in the NFL; I tend to be pretty harsh on Beane but I don't think there's any chance he would have drafted Coleman if he had any inkling he'd be a guy that we have to discipline for being late, not trying hard enough, etc.

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Please do not ever use Keon and Moulds in the same sentence.  Moulds showed many signs of breaking out before his third year.  Moulds and Lee Evan’s are the best Bills WR the past 30 years 

Got to put Diggs ahead of Lee Evans. Unless you only mean drafted by the Bills

[Billl]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We shouldn’t overreact to this because there are a lot of good players all over the map. At the same time, there are some extremes in here:

 

 

Cornelius Johnson, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Tahj Washington, Xavier Weaver, Javon Baker, Ainias Smith, Johnny Wilson, Jordan Whittington, and Tayvion Robinson are all complete and total busts to this point.  A few of them have literally never taken a snap in the NFL.  Tahj Washington is on the chart right between Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. despite having played 3 career snaps without registering a stat.  This chart is a complete fabrication.

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He didn't do those things particularly great in college though. That was part of the evaluation on Keon. He doesn't dominate enough at the catch point to compensate for the lack of separation. 

 

I just thought he had the traits to develop the ability to do those things more consistently. I didn't expect him to be an immediate hit. And to be fair there was brief evidence of that development last year - in the two game stretch of Tennessee to Seattle he showed the run blocking, the fighting through contact, the ability to make difficult catches, the YAC. I was very excited about his development track at that point, but I haven't seen that player show up since then and I'm at a loss as to what happened.

 

I don't think it's lack of effort... I know he has been penalized twice by the team, but I also know through my usual source he really attacked the offseason both before and during camp and the team was very happy with where he was at. Everything is earned under McDermott so it's no coincidence Coleman has led the WR room in snaps since the beginning of the season. That wouldn't have happened if they weren't satisfied with his progress in the offseason. But ever since that injury last year he has looked much softer on the field than I ever would have expected.

 

Oh well. I can forgive Beane for isolated mistakes of player evaluation. What I can't forgive him for is the more fundamental mistake of team building strategy. Skyy Moore is always my go to example because he was an absolute bust, much worse than what even Coleman has been for us. He was KC's Boogie Basham. But because they continually threw resources at the position, they eventually got a big hit with Rashee Rice and all of a sudden their passing offense looks scary again. The isolated mistake of picking Skyy Moore meant nothing in the end. Beane on the other hand put all his eggs in one basket. We entered the season with Coleman as the only possible X on the roster which was a massive mistake that has been compounded by Coleman's lack of development.

 

I know I'm preaching to the choir here but it's just crazy how Beane approaches the WR position compared to every other premium position on the roster. We draft a CB in the 1st round but we also draft a backup option in the 6th round and sign Tre White as a baseline starter. We draft three defensive linemen high but we also sign Bosa, Hoecht, and Ogunjobi to meaningful contracts. At WR we say here you go Keon, the job is yours. No competition, no backup option. Good luck. Why do they continue to leave themselves no margin for error at that one position? I just don't get it.

[colin]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

Cornelius Johnson, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Tahj Washington, Xavier Weaver, Javon Baker, Ainias Smith, Johnny Wilson, Jordan Whittington, and Tayvion Robinson are all complete and total busts to this point.  A few of them have literally never taken a snap in the NFL.  Tahj Washington is on the chart right between Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. despite having played 3 career snaps without registering a stat.  This chart is a complete fabrication.

 

ya Billl (3 Ls, which i hope is the ceiling of how many Ls our team has this season) you make a good point on this.

 

keon is like middle of the pack of where he should be based on his numbers and the numbers of the wr's in that same draft and where he was taken (ladd is a slam dunk tho, which makes it sad we didn't draft him but such is life).  as i mentioned in another thread, to me the big issue is the disconnect between what players our gm got and how our coaches (brady mostly) use them.  keon or palmer out wide with 22 or 13 or whatever big personnel seems to be nasty work, but we seem to insist to have him 1 on 1 vs a good corner fielding fades and back shoulder throws.  we are using our rooks like bishops and our pawns like knights at times out there, makes me insane! 

[Kirby Jackson]

16 minutes ago, Billl said:

Cornelius Johnson, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Tahj Washington, Xavier Weaver, Javon Baker, Ainias Smith, Johnny Wilson, Jordan Whittington, and Tayvion Robinson are all complete and total busts to this point.  A few of them have literally never taken a snap in the NFL.  Tahj Washington is on the chart right between Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. despite having played 3 career snaps without registering a stat.  This chart is a complete fabrication.

This was from their last year of college. Obviously you have to factor in level of competition, physical traits, total number of targets, etc… That’s why I said “don’t overreact.”
 

At the same time, this chart says, “here’s how impactful these players were when they were targeted.” We shouldn’t just dismiss it because the guy we drafted had horrible metrics. It’s not the ONLY thing that should be looked at but it certainly should be looked at…

[zow2]

I mean it’s very simplified but the Bills just might get better, with less Keon on the field.  

[DCOrange]

32 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I just thought he had the traits to develop the ability to do those things more consistently. I didn't expect him to be an immediate hit. And to be fair there was brief evidence of that development last year - in the two game stretch of Tennessee to Seattle he showed the run blocking, the fighting through contact, the ability to make difficult catches, the YAC. I was very excited about his development track at that point, but I haven't seen that player show up since then and I'm at a loss as to what happened.

 

I don't think it's lack of effort... I know he has been penalized twice by the team, but I also know through my usual source he really attacked the offseason both before and during camp and the team was very happy with where he was at. Everything is earned under McDermott so it's no coincidence Coleman has led the WR room in snaps since the beginning of the season. That wouldn't have happened if they weren't satisfied with his progress in the offseason. But ever since that injury last year he has looked much softer on the field than I ever would have expected.

 

Oh well. I can forgive Beane for isolated mistakes of player evaluation. What I can't forgive him for is the more fundamental mistake of team building strategy. Skyy Moore is always my go to example because he was an absolute bust, much worse than what even Coleman has been for us. He was KC's Boogie Basham. But because they continually threw resources at the position, they eventually got a big hit with Rashee Rice and all of a sudden their passing offense looks scary again. The isolated mistake of picking Skyy Moore meant nothing in the end. Beane on the other hand put all his eggs in one basket. We entered the season with Coleman as the only possible X on the roster which was a massive mistake that has been compounded by Coleman's lack of development.

 

I know I'm preaching to the choir here but it's just crazy how Beane approaches the WR position compared to every other premium position on the roster. We draft a CB in the 1st round but we also draft a backup option in the 6th round and sign Tre White as a baseline starter. We draft three defensive linemen high but we also sign Bosa, Hoecht, and Ogunjobi to meaningful contracts. At WR we say here you go Keon, the job is yours. No competition, no backup option. Good luck. Why do they continue to leave themselves no margin for error at that one position? I just don't get it.

To the first point, I do wonder if they've been more strict with Coleman than they would be with some other guys because they view him as such an important potential building block that they have to get right. Probably wishful thinking on my part but it is a thing I wonder a little about.

 

To the latter, I think I've mentioned it here before, but yeah, I really wish we had double dipped in 2024 (though I'm not sure my preferred choice, Troy Franklin, would have been meaningfully better at this point and my second choice, Javon Baker, obviously would not have been). I personally did not like the 2025 class very much, though I did think Elic Ayomanor would have been a nice fit for us. We did obviously trade for Amari last season, which was considered a blockbuster as far as in-season trades go and Palmer and Samuel have been our two biggest free agent signings of the past two seasons I believe. I don't think we've ignored the position as much as we have with the safety spot for example. But at the end of the day, facts are facts: we have 3 guys on the roster right now that are capable of lining up outside and none of them are actually good.

Edited 1 hour ago by DCOrange

[Pete]

Yo Beane get us a real wide receiver like Eric Moulds- not these tomato cans you draft and find from scrap heaps. This is what real WR does in the playoffs-

https://youtu.be/D3C8hLa6i0I

 

[In Summary]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

 

Moulds didn't have Josh Allen throwing the ball to him those first two years,  either.  Jim Kelly had a really rough first half to 1996,  leading to his retirement at the end off the season.  Then it got worse,  with Todd Collins,  Alex Van Pelt and Billy Joe Hobert starting games at QB in 1997.  

Moulds would be a stud on this team.