3rd round draft pick snap counts

[Ethan in Cleveland]

This is a corollary to the Landon Jackson thread so feel free to merge.  

I looked at the top 19 picks in the 3rd round. I don't have much of a life but I do want to get in the workshop tonight so I just did the top half.  That is 19 picks as there were 38 picks.  Bills drafted Landon Jackson with the 8th pick in the 3rd round so just about in the middle of this sample.  

See the table below. These numbers represent snap count percentage for week 4.  Data source link below.  I have no idea how accurate it is. 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=ARI&year=2025&type=snap-counts

Only two other players have been inactive all four games and only one other has been a healthy scratch - a 49ers LB.  The Titans WR has been injured but not on IR.  

Two had season ending injuries in camp and are on IR.

Two had no snaps in week 4 but had snaps in 2 of 4 games. All the others that played in week 4 also played in weeks 1-3.

  

 

 

It is data and you can judge it however you want.  There is a mix of good and bad teams.  There is a mix of positions. 

My take is that it is reasonable to expect a 3rd round pick that is not injured to be dressing on game day and playing in some capacity.  

 

[Snappysnackcakes]

We’re extremely deep with mid-level talent at this position. We’re a contending team and the coaches are seeing that the kid is raw and in need of coaching (my opinion here). The practice reps are important but also few and far between during a season. Don’t overthink being inactive - we don’t need him to produce this season. 

[TFBillsfan]

It’s early, but trading up for Sanders in the 2nd and then selecting Landon in the 3rd are not looking good picks. Hopefully, a light bulb turns on for both soon. 

[Doc Brown]

You don't have a life?  How is looking at the week 4 snap count percentage by the 3rd rounder on each NFL team in the previous draft to point out how disappointing ours has been not a fulfilling life?

[Cray51]

I was particularly interested in drafting Landon Jackson.  I was comfortable taking him at 30th if the board fell into a worst case scenario.

 

From what I was reading, he was struggling with the misdirection and mental side of our system.

 

I'd have liked for him to get some reps, but I'm going to give him time.  He was a guy I was high on, so I may be biased, but I think there is a player there.  Just needs to develop and adapt to the system.

 

AJ looked bad his first year, and has developed into a rotational piece.  I still have that hope for Jackson.

[MikePJ76]

If you really want to have some fun,

 

safety Xavier watts has two interceptions so far this year.  He was taken with the bills third round pick traded for Amari cooper.

 

i will never let this go, it was a major mistake.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

This is a corollary to the Landon Jackson thread so feel free to merge.  

I looked at the top 19 picks in the 3rd round. I don't have much of a life but I do want to get in the workshop tonight so I just did the top half.  That is 19 picks as there were 38 picks.  Bills drafted Landon Jackson with the 8th pick in the 3rd round so just about in the middle of this sample.  

See the table below. These numbers represent snap count percentage for week 4.  Data source link below.  I have no idea how accurate it is. 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=ARI&year=2025&type=snap-counts

Only two other players have been inactive all four games and only one other has been a healthy scratch - a 49ers LB.  The Titans WR has been injured but not on IR.  

Two had season ending injuries in camp and are on IR.

Two had no snaps in week 4 but had snaps in 2 of 4 games. All the others that played in week 4 also played in weeks 1-3.

  

 

 

It is data and you can judge it however you want.  There is a mix of good and bad teams.  There is a mix of positions. 

My take is that it is reasonable to expect a 3rd round pick that is not injured to be dressing on game day and playing in some capacity.  

 

 

 

Your take is that "it is reasonable to expect a 3rd round pick that is not injured to be dressing on game day and playing in some capacity"?

 

Despite the fact that seven others have 0%? Yeah, two of them are IR'd. But would they have played if they weren't on IR? No way to know.

 

Despite the fact that it's historically always been harder to find playing time on better teams? Despite the lack of data on how many of those other snaps might have been special teams, or results of other players being injured? Despite no way to know whether the ones who played played terribly or well, or whether they might have cost their team a game, or been an integral part of a win?

 

Yeah, that is a result of your pre-conceptions. Four games into the career, that is completely nuts.

 

Four games in, about all that can reasonably be taken from any data about this, really, is that stuff happens. That mountains can be made from data that is statistically insignificant. And that within three years or so we'll know how the picks turned out.

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Thurman#1

[Allen2Moulds]

One of the things we have to factor is who is being activated in his place, and right now that's Solomon. By all accounts, Solomon has been horrible. I don't see how Landon Jackson can by any worst, and if he is, even at this early juncture, it's concerning.

I'm not one that cares about being right, especially when it comes to the Bills. I rather be wrong. That being said, Landon looked extremely stiff in College. Not sure how that gets better in the NFL. He will need to win with sheer size, power, and technique, if he's going to succeed. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

30 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

I was particularly interested in drafting Landon Jackson.  I was comfortable taking him at 30th if the board fell into a worst case scenario.

 

From what I was reading, he was struggling with the misdirection and mental side of our system.

 

I'd have liked for him to get some reps, but I'm going to give him time.  He was a guy I was high on, so I may be biased, but I think there is a player there.  Just needs to develop and adapt to the system.

 

AJ looked bad his first year, and has developed into a rotational piece.  I still have that hope for Jackson.

You had me until you said AJ has developed...

 

I too still have hope for Jackson.  It's obviously incredibly early in his career. We probably had hope for Basham as well though...  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

25 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Your take is that "it is reasonable to expect a 3rd round pick that is not injured to be dressing on game day and playing in some capacity"?

 

Despite the fact that seven others have 0%? Yeah, two of them are IR'd. But would they have played if they weren't on IR? No way to know.

 

Despite the fact that it's historically always been harder to find playing time on better teams? Despite the lack of data on how many of those other snaps might have been special teams, or results of other players being injured? Despite no way to know whether the ones who played played terribly or well, or whether they might have cost their team a game, or been an integral part of a win?

 

Yeah, that is a result of your pre-conceptions. Four games into the career, that is completely nuts.

 

Four games in, about all that can reasonably be taken from any data about this, really, is that stuff happens. That mountains can be made from data that is statistically insignificant. And that within three years or so we'll know how the picks turned out.

 

 

As I pointed out there are good and bad teams. Bills, Steelers, Lions, Chiefs, and Colts are among the league's best teams 

 

It's just data like I said.  And yes your point about whether it is special teams or offense//defense is a good one.  I gues the counter to that is Jackson isn;t een able to dress to play special teams.  Yes I have pre-conceptions but the data in my opinion validates them.  Most 3rd round picks are playing in some capacity and at a decent rate.  Only 1 other healthy player has not played.  I never implied anything about Jackson's long term outlook.  

 

It would probably be very interesting to look at the fourth round snap counts.  Walker might lead the league for all I know.  

 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

Not every rookie can be like my man Deon Walker.

[Cray51]

13 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

You had me until you said AJ has developed...

 

I too still have hope for Jackson.  It's obviously incredibly early in his career. We probably had hope for Basham as well though...  

I think AJ is a decent player.  Maybe not championship starting D-line calibar, but he is a rotational D for most teams.  If Jackson can be that as a cost controlled asset for a few years, I dont have any issues with the pick.

 

If I judge the players I wanted who were available but not selected over Jackson:

Jaylin Noel - 3 catches for 9 yards this year

Xavier Watts - 17 tackles, 2 interceptions

 

Watts has played well, but I dont know that he would have started over Rapp or Bishop.  Noel has been a nothing-burger so far.

 

Fingers crossed on Jackson, but even if he doesn't pan out, the picks of Walker/Strong/Hawes have shown to be solid enough for me to forgive his selection.

[Mikie2times]

Preseason doesn't matter

It takes time for a rookie to develop

Beane can't hit on everybody

I'm sure he will be fine

 

[NeverOutNick]

1 hour ago, TFBillsfan said:

It’s early, but trading up for Sanders in the 2nd and then selecting Landon in the 3rd are not looking good picks. Hopefully, a light bulb turns on for both soon. 

We’re such a good FO with our late round picks. It’s actually very impressive and also maddening because they SUCK (outside of cook) in the 2nd/3rd round. I wish they’d just get playmakers early. Trading up was fine but what if you did it for Luther Burden to help Josh out instead of another who cares DT, 2 years in a row Carter over Troy Franklin and Sanders over Burden. I honestly believe it’s only because we have a defensive HC that we keep going to this well early in the draft while neglecting the WR position by just throwing cash at scrubs who haven’t done anything in league like Samuel and Palmer. 

[Brand J]

I don’t like the argument that we’re such an “extremely deep playoff team” that cracking the lineup is an arduous task for a high pick. It’s not like the players ahead of those high picks are all pro talents. If the rookies could play, or more accurately, if the coaches believed Landon or anyone else in his rookie class was ready to play, that player would be on the field - either in a rotation, or ahead of some average to below average NFL players.

[Steve Billieve]

Why on earth would you only look at the top 19? Are we purposely trying to avoid seeing what other competent teams are doing?

 

Regardless, we brought in a lot of competition for our dl.

[Shortchaz]

1 hour ago, Cray51 said:

I was particularly interested in drafting Landon Jackson.  I was comfortable taking him at 30th if the board fell into a worst case scenario.

 

From what I was reading, he was struggling with the misdirection and mental side of our system.

 

I'd have liked for him to get some reps, but I'm going to give him time.  He was a guy I was high on, so I may be biased, but I think there is a player there.  Just needs to develop and adapt to the system.

 

AJ looked bad his first year, and has developed into a rotational piece.  I still have that hope for Jackson.

This is exactly it. Edge players coming to our system expecting to rush the passer have to learn that we don’t do that here. We have a very sophisticated system that requires a heavy rotation and is poor at both stopping the run and rushing the passer. 
 

 

I kid, I kid 

[Rochesterfan]

7 hours ago, Allen2Moulds said:

One of the things we have to factor is who is being activated in his place, and right now that's Solomon. By all accounts, Solomon has been horrible. I don't see how Landon Jackson can by any worst, and if he is, even at this early juncture, it's concerning.

I'm not one that cares about being right, especially when it comes to the Bills. I rather be wrong. That being said, Landon looked extremely stiff in College. Not sure how that gets better in the NFL. He will need to win with sheer size, power, and technique, if he's going to succeed. 

 

Why is Solomon active - perhaps it is the fact that he is a core Special teamer due to his athleticism and Jackson would not be.

 

Perhaps it is because - per Sal - they have Solomon doing things that the Bills plan to do with Hoecht - not playing a true DE, but moving around and playing some cover and some blitz.  This is a new role and Solomon is learning and Jackson can’t play it.  
 

Jackson isn’t playing because he needs to play Bosa,, Groot, and/or AJ’s spot and he is not there yet.

 

Jackson was never drafted for what he could do this year - this is a draft pick to fill depth in year 1 and become a replacement when AJ or Bosa leave after the season.  Whatever we get this year is gravy?

 

It is just like Cook, Shakir, Bernard, and many other 3-6 round picks - they look at the upcoming holes and try to fill early.  Get them in and trained and ready to go when it is their turn.

 

 

[Pete]

My takeaway from Landon is a horrible Offside in preseason, and I haven’t seen much, if any of Landon playing time, since 

[Rochesterfan]

6 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

We’re such a good FO with our late round picks. It’s actually very impressive and also maddening because they SUCK (outside of cook) in the 2nd/3rd round. I wish they’d just get playmakers early. Trading up was fine but what if you did it for Luther Burden to help Josh out instead of another who cares DT, 2 years in a row Carter over Troy Franklin and Sanders over Burden. I honestly believe it’s only because we have a defensive HC that we keep going to this well early in the draft while neglecting the WR position by just throwing cash at scrubs who haven’t done anything in league like Samuel and Palmer. 

 

Dude - you can not be this poor of a fan overall right - you are trolling - you have to be.

 

2021 - Spencer Brown

2022 - James Cook

2022 - Terrel Bernard

2023 - Torrance

2024 - Coleman

2024 - Bishop

 

Yep - every year they just can’t draft anyone in the 2nd and 3rd round!

 

Do you know what most of them have in common - most of them sat and got few snaps other than special teams as rookies - they were given a chance to learn and grow physically and mentally and they slid in full by year 2.  Some like Torrance fit the need and took right off, but others like Brown needed that time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Rochesterfan