Elam Fairing well in Big D.

[BigDingus]

11 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

1st Round flop gets traded to a crappy team and shines.

STOP THE PRESSES!

 

Um... that didn't happen. It actually would be newsworthy if he did "shine."

 

Maybe you should scroll up a bit & read the thread. 

[Don Otreply]

On 7/24/2025 at 7:54 PM, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Elam will be a probowler this season.

 

But I believe hes the only Bills CB ever to intercept Mahommes once in the regular season and intercept the Dolphins in the playoffs 

 

But that wasn't good enough for McDermott because Elam didn't fit in with McDermotts soft zone cerebral unathletic scheme

Gotta say, you were quite eloquent in your verbiage, lol, 

[Mister Defense]

12 hours ago, boyst said:

Yes I think it was a bad plan. We drafted by need at CB in the first round. Then by BPA later supposedly. Though, it was said BPA in the first round according to Beanie. 

 

 

Round 1, Pick 23: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Round 2, Pick 63: James Cook, RB, Georgia

Round 3, Pick 89: Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor

Round 5, Pick 148: Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State

Round 6, Pick 180: Matt Araiza, P, San Diego State

Round 6, Pick 185: Christian Benford, CB, Villanova

Round 6, Pick 209: Luke Tenuta, OT, Virginia Tech

Round 7, Pick 231: Baylon Spector, LB, Clemson

 

Round 1 we had needs at Center considering we were planning on moving on from Morse (which, well, you'd think we had that plan ahead of time because long term planning). So, Linderbaum was a solid talent and better than Elam as BPA goes. From Cole Strange (G) to Lloyd (LB) there were better BPA available than Elam. Even Breece Hall was a need and BPA and we went RB in round 2. Cook was not going to be an every down back or the talent he became by draft projection. We got a good bargain there.

 

So round 2 we passed up pass rush which we needed. Bitonio was there as was OC Fortner.

 

Round 3 we got Bernard who has respect among Bills fans but we over celebrate him.1.  Got a steal there but it wasn't until round 5 that we projected to actually get someone that was at the time considered a great pick - Shakir.

 

Araiza and Benford; one a punter which ok..whatever. And Benford who we really lucked out with in the 6th.

 

2.  We needed help at CB and double dipped hedging our bets. I don't think that's effective. 

Hindsight is 20/20 so judging the results by the fruit on the vine isn't fair. If you're doing that also count Araiza who is still playing, please 

 

3.  The overall plan was not solid. If we truly went BPA we would have got anyone else but Elam. Let's say we got Breece Hall in round 1. Round 2 BPA is not Cook but Bonitto, a need for us. Round 3 we could still go with Bernard and double dip at LB since Bonitto is a rusher. Or gone with guard, a need taking Parham or Rhyan.

 

So, judging 20/20 to what we ended up by the fruit on the vine doesn't show we had a good plan going in... We drafted BPA and double dipped at CB and took gambled on Benford, Bernard, and a freaking punter.

4.  I never said it was a bad draft. I said it was not planned well.

See above  5.  Words matter.

They went in drafting players saying they were BPA but... They were of need and we got 2 to pan out. Shakir and Cook. Bernard is good but not great. He is also a little light for my liking and durability is a concern. We need a replacement in 2-3 years.

Feelings and such. Cute but we disagree.

Settle down, Dorothy.

 

 

Huh? You are actually trying to make the case that because the Bills did not get the "projected" best players and the ones you wanted, think we need, and  instead they got the players they got  that even though it includes one of the best running backs, slot receivers and corners in the league, and a quality starting linebacker, that the Bills had "no plan" (and you actually said it not me), that  "The year we drafted elam... It was different. Bad draft."

 

How would someone even respond to analysis like this? It is sooo far gone,, bizarre, and off kilter that there is almost nothing to say---just read over his comments, let them sink in....

 

But i will try to briefly hit some of these 'points'...from his post above:

 

   1.  "Got a steal there but it wasn't until round 5 that we projected to actually get someone that was at the time considered a great pick - Shakir."  

 

I am literally laughing, and no offense meant, when I read that sentence again.  For real. Your analysis that it was a "bad draft" with "no plan" is based on this, one of the most bizarre takes ever.  Not good because while the Bills did get three of the best players at their positions, all stars in this league already, and a a quality starting linebacker, it somehow doesn't count. A shocking way to look at this draft, or really, the same can be said for any other area in which this 'logic' is applied. 

 

2.  "We needed help at CB and double dipped hedging our bets. I don't think that's effective. Hindsight is 20/20 so judging the results by the fruit on the vine isn't fair."

 

So, let me sum this up:  It is "not fair" to judge a draft by the performance of the players picked in that draft,  not fair to judge "the results by the fruit on the vine"  "Isn't fair."  The poster is saying what I point to in #1 above, in an even more direct, bizarre way.  I will just repeat his crystal clear ideas--it is not fair to judge a draft by how the players actually play, but on things like how they were projected to play!

 

Laughing again.  I cannot believe someone can believe these things.  An understatement.

 

3. See his post above--HUH?  Because they did not pick the players you wanted, as YOU had the far superior plan, not the folks who actually had one of the best drafts in the NFL that year, it was a bad draft, no plan.

 

Makes sense--for maybe one person in the world.

 

 

4.  And as for the last point, well, we  could not ask for a better last point to bring these remarkable ideas together sharply. It is is the perfect ending for, well,  a remarkable post, analysis of the Bills 2022 draft. And I am not just saying that to be nice:

 

 " I never said it was a bad draft. I said it was not planned well.See above. Words matter."

 

His actual words, his post, yesterday at 1026 am:   "The year we drafted elam... It was different. Bad draft. The plan sucked."

 

 

5. Yup, I agree words do matter. That is why I responded to the original posts and to this beauty.

 

Truly a striking post and analysis, and from beginning to end.

 

Don't judge that draft, or any draft, by "the results", the "fruit on the vine", by the way the players actually perform, as that is "unfair". Instead, the fair way to judge it is by these other criteria that the poster so painstakingly lays out. If  any other posters believe this, raise your hand right now, please.

 

The one thing I agree with in your post is that "words matter"

 

 

 

Edited September 18 by Mister Defense

[Buffalo Junction]

22 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

I agree, though just wanted to point out that most outside of Buffalo don't consider Terrell Bernard to be a top tier LB.

 

Just to put it in perspective, PFF gave him a 47.6 grade for 2024 (165th among LBs) and just for laughs, he's got a 79 overall rating in Madden 😆

 

I know, I know, we all hate PFF. I'm only bringing up that in a redraft, he likely wouldn't be valued as highly as we value him. 

 

Regarding everything else, I think wasting a 1st round pick on Kaiir Elam kinda sours things a bit. 

 

The Bills have a severe lack of elite talent & play makers, so consistently falling to change that with your 1st round picks reflects poorly on Beane regardless of late round hits.

It’s kind of like the 09’ draft. Most teams would have prayed to have hit on the picks like that…. But…. Maybin instead of Orakpo on top of the Peters trade. 

[Ayjent]

The 2022 draft was really solid but I always considered Elam a real head scratcher from go for the Bills - he didn't seem to have traits that the Bills utilized and in my opinion was not a day 1 or 2 talent - he was a terrible, terrible tackler, was awful at getting off blocks, lost his man way too frequently in coverage, and never seemed to be coordinated with the rest of the secondary (don't get me wrong Napier's teams are poorly coached so there is definitely that).  He did make some great plays from time to time, but he wasn't ever consistent and teams actually went at him knowing this.  Probably one of the most overrated Gator prospects ever (I know, I know Anthony Richardson and Kadarius Toney would like a word). I thought he was a liability watching him play for the Gators and I think the best tape he had was the season before he was drafted, but I'm really surprised so many teams had him rated so highly after an uneven season.  Athletically he has all of the tools, but the evidence of how he used them was there for everyone to see.  I remember being very low on him entering the draft and even calling him the most overrated player in it, and a guy that I hoped the Bills would stay away from.  When they drafted him I trusted that they knew what they were doing and tried to rationalize that Napier's staff were and still are awful at Xs and Os and teaching technique (not so much now on the Defensive side - although they are much more talented than they've been in the past few years), but when they were reluctant to put him out there and started Benford it was clear that they realized pretty fast that it was the player as much as the coaching and other factors. Benford was a great pick, but Elam was an equally awful one.   No one hits every pick, not even close, but it does make you wonder how in depth teams evaluate players, because I'd like to think they are thorough but at times its pretty clear that they might sell themselves on things that are overlooking the obvious.

[JP51]

On 9/16/2025 at 2:59 PM, JP51 said:

JD Williams says hold my beer.... 

and Ashton "feelin on" Youbooty says Hold my Strawberry White Claw... 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Ayjent said:

The 2022 draft was really solid but I always considered Elam a real head scratcher from go for the Bills - he didn't seem to have traits that the Bills utilized and in my opinion was not a day 1 or 2 talent - he was a terrible, terrible tackler, was awful at getting off blocks, lost his man way too frequently in coverage, and never seemed to be coordinated with the rest of the secondary (don't get me wrong Napier's teams are poorly coached so there is definitely that).  He did make some great plays from time to time, but he wasn't ever consistent and teams actually went at him knowing this.  Probably one of the most overrated Gator prospects ever (I know, I know Anthony Richardson and Kadarius Toney would like a word). I thought he was a liability watching him play for the Gators and I think the best tape he had was the season before he was drafted, but I'm really surprised so many teams had him rated so highly after an uneven season.  Athletically he has all of the tools, but the evidence of how he used them was there for everyone to see.  I remember being very low on him entering the draft and even calling him the most overrated player in it, and a guy that I hoped the Bills would stay away from.  When they drafted him I trusted that they knew what they were doing and tried to rationalize that Napier's staff were and still are awful at Xs and Os and teaching technique (not so much now on the Defensive side - although they are much more talented than they've been in the past few years), but when they were reluctant to put him out there and started Benford it was clear that they realized pretty fast that it was the player as much as the coaching and other factors. Benford was a great pick, but Elam was an equally awful one.   No one hits every pick, not even close, but it does make you wonder how in depth teams evaluate players, because I'd like to think they are thorough but at times its pretty clear that they might sell themselves on things that are overlooking the obvious.

I really think we wanted mcduffie and kc traded up and stole him so beane traded  up to make sure we got the other corner we had a first round grade on.  Probably didn’t like Elam as much but thought he’d fill the need 

Edited September 18 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I really think we wanted mcduffie and kc traded up and stole him so beane traded  up to make sure we got the other corner we had a first round grade on.  Probably didn’t like Elam as much but thought he’d fill the need 

That's pretty frightening when you think about it, that the Bills had a 1st round grade on Elam.  Not sure what traits they liked about him.  Just watching him on the Cowboys the first two weeks of the season, he plays way off his man and looks like he has no confidence.  

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

That's pretty frightening when you think about it, that the Bills had a 1st round grade on Elam.  Not sure what traits they liked about him.  Just watching him on the Cowboys the first two weeks of the season, he plays way off his man and looks like he has no confidence.  

He had a consensus first/early second round grade.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

That's pretty frightening when you think about it, that the Bills had a 1st round grade on Elam.  Not sure what traits they liked about him.  Just watching him on the Cowboys the first two weeks of the season, he plays way off his man and looks like he has no confidence.  

He doesn’t have any confidence because even HE knows he sucks. 
 

Colossal bust. 

[Breakout Squad]

On 9/16/2025 at 12:22 PM, boyst said:

Imagine having Shakir in slot and then being able to slide Nacua to the big slot position? The motion to do so would be awesome especially considering we now have call me who can go out wide and get the contested balls. 

Those three would be a top trio in the league instantly

Puka was slower than defensive lineman in the 40 at the combine. I don’t think anyone should be blamed for not drafting him. It’s all hindsight now. 

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

That's pretty frightening when you think about it, that the Bills had a 1st round grade on Elam.  Not sure what traits they liked about him.  Just watching him on the Cowboys the first two weeks of the season, he plays way off his man and looks like he has no confidence.  

Draft projection for him was a 1st round pick. He was fast, big and strong. Appeared to be good in man coverage in college.

 

Ended up being an “all tools, but no toolbox” type player. It happens…

 

Someone like Benford has much less in terms of tools, which is why he dropped so much even if he’s a much better football player.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 9/17/2025 at 8:59 AM, boyst said:

Yes I think it was a bad plan. We drafted by need at CB in the first round. Then by BPA later supposedly. Though, it was said BPA in the first round according to Beanie. 

 

 

Round 1, Pick 23: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Round 2, Pick 63: James Cook, RB, Georgia

Round 3, Pick 89: Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor

Round 5, Pick 148: Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State

Round 6, Pick 180: Matt Araiza, P, San Diego State

Round 6, Pick 185: Christian Benford, CB, Villanova

Round 6, Pick 209: Luke Tenuta, OT, Virginia Tech

Round 7, Pick 231: Baylon Spector, LB, Clemson

 

Round 1 we had needs at Center considering we were planning on moving on from Morse (which, well, you'd think we had that plan ahead of time because long term planning). So, Linderbaum was a solid talent and better than Elam as BPA goes. From Cole Strange (G) to Lloyd (LB) there were better BPA available than Elam. Even Breece Hall was a need and BPA and we went RB in round 2. Cook was not going to be an every down back or the talent he became by draft projection. We got a good bargain there.

 

So round 2 we passed up pass rush which we needed. Bitonio was there as was OC Fortner.

 

Round 3 we got Bernard who has respect among Bills fans but we over celebrate him. Got a steal there but it wasn't until round 5 that we projected to actually get someone that was at the time considered a great pick - Shakir.

 

Araiza and Benford; one a punter which ok..whatever. And Benford who we really lucked out with in the 6th.

 

We needed help at CB and double dipped hedging our bets. I don't think that's effective. 

Hindsight is 20/20 so judging the results by the fruit on the vine isn't fair. If you're doing that also count Araiza who is still playing, please 

 

The overall plan was not solid. If we truly went BPA we would have got anyone else but Elam. Let's say we got Breece Hall in round 1. Round 2 BPA is not Cook but Bonitto, a need for us. Round 3 we could still go with Bernard and double dip at LB since Bonitto is a rusher. Or gone with guard, a need taking Parham or Rhyan.

 

So, judging 20/20 to what we ended up by the fruit on the vine doesn't show we had a good plan going in... We drafted BPA and double dipped at CB and took gambled on Benford, Bernard, and a freaking punter.

 

I never said it was a bad draft. I said it was not planned well.

See above. Words matter.

They went in drafting players saying they were BPA but... They were of need and we got 2 to pan out. Shakir and Cook. Bernard is good but not great. He is also a little light for my liking and durability is a concern. We need a replacement in 2-3 years.

Feelings and such. Cute but we disagree.

Settle down, Dorothy.

 

I think you can make the linderbaum argument in the first - he was a consensus first round guy.  After that its a crapshoot.  

 

Round 2 - Cook leads all players in the 2022 draft in rushing yards, and is 3rd in rushing TDs.  Hall in the 1st would be a worse use of resources.

 

Round 3 - Starting MLB for the team after his rookie year, and one of only 2 team captains the last 2 seasons.  I'm not sure there is anyone after that that projects to be your captain.

 

Round 5 - Shakir was projected higher, and was a comparable prospect to someone like Moore that KC got in the 2nd.  He was just the odd man out in a deep class so he 

 

Buffalo got a Starting RB, MLB, WR, and CB out of 8 picks, with only 3 in the top 100.  Thats a good draft.  

[HappyDays]

 

[boyst]

27 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think you can make the linderbaum argument in the first - he was a consensus first round guy.  After that its a crapshoot.  

 

Round 2 - Cook leads all players in the 2022 draft in rushing yards, and is 3rd in rushing TDs.  Hall in the 1st would be a worse use of resources.

 

Round 3 - Starting MLB for the team after his rookie year, and one of only 2 team captains the last 2 seasons.  I'm not sure there is anyone after that that projects to be your captain.

 

Round 5 - Shakir was projected higher, and was a comparable prospect to someone like Moore that KC got in the 2nd.  He was just the odd man out in a deep class so he 

 

Buffalo got a Starting RB, MLB, WR, and CB out of 8 picks, with only 3 in the top 100.  Thats a good draft.  

i get it. and the other guy and i are not going to agree.

 

but my point is if we were truly drafting bpa there were better players available then elam in the first and that would have done a whole lot for later in the draft which would not have gave us Cook perhaps. and it's hard to judge now or then if bernard or benford were bpa.  shakir surely was. many in the league came out saying it after.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Breakout Squad said:

Puka was slower than defensive lineman in the 40 at the combine. I don’t think anyone should be blamed for not drafting him. It’s all hindsight now. 

 

is he a slot receiver though?  He seems to line up outside quite a bit.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

13 minutes ago, boyst said:

i get it. and the other guy and i are not going to agree.

 

but my point is if we were truly drafting bpa there were better players available then elam in the first and that would have done a whole lot for later in the draft which would not have gave us Cook perhaps. and it's hard to judge now or then if bernard or benford were bpa.  shakir surely was. many in the league came out saying it after.

 

You can't always do BPA though.  In 2022 for example - they just extended morse, and linderbaum was too small (6'2 295) to play guard.  So you're either cutting morse, and his cap hit is probably higher in 2022, or you would have been drafting a player in the first that will be firmly on the bench.  

Edited September 18 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[boyst]

6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

You can't always do BPA though.  In 2022 for example - they just extended morse, and linderbaum was too small (6'2 295) to play guard.  So you're either cutting morse, and his cap hit is probably higher in 2022, or you would have been drafting a player in the first that will be firmly on the bench.  

Sure, I get the idea but we should have had a better plan knowing we were releasing Morse after the year - to plan a succession. Like we did w hangartner and wood.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

On 9/17/2025 at 8:59 AM, boyst said:

Yes I think it was a bad plan. We drafted by need at CB in the first round. Then by BPA later supposedly. Though, it was said BPA in the first round according to Beanie. 

 

 

Round 1, Pick 23: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Round 2, Pick 63: James Cook, RB, Georgia

Round 3, Pick 89: Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor

Round 5, Pick 148: Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State

Round 6, Pick 180: Matt Araiza, P, San Diego State

Round 6, Pick 185: Christian Benford, CB, Villanova

Round 6, Pick 209: Luke Tenuta, OT, Virginia Tech

Round 7, Pick 231: Baylon Spector, LB, Clemson

 

Round 1 we had needs at Center considering we were planning on moving on from Morse (which, well, you'd think we had that plan ahead of time because long term planning). So, Linderbaum was a solid talent and better than Elam as BPA goes. From Cole Strange (G) to Lloyd (LB) there were better BPA available than Elam. Even Breece Hall was a need and BPA and we went RB in round 2. Cook was not going to be an every down back or the talent he became by draft projection. We got a good bargain there.

 

So round 2 we passed up pass rush which we needed. Bitonio was there as was OC Fortner.

 

Round 3 we got Bernard who has respect among Bills fans but we over celebrate him. Got a steal there but it wasn't until round 5 that we projected to actually get someone that was at the time considered a great pick - Shakir.

 

Araiza and Benford; one a punter which ok..whatever. And Benford who we really lucked out with in the 6th.

 

We needed help at CB and double dipped hedging our bets. I don't think that's effective. 

Hindsight is 20/20 so judging the results by the fruit on the vine isn't fair. If you're doing that also count Araiza who is still playing, please 

 

The overall plan was not solid. If we truly went BPA we would have got anyone else but Elam. Let's say we got Breece Hall in round 1. Round 2 BPA is not Cook but Bonitto, a need for us. Round 3 we could still go with Bernard and double dip at LB since Bonitto is a rusher. Or gone with guard, a need taking Parham or Rhyan.

 

So, judging 20/20 to what we ended up by the fruit on the vine doesn't show we had a good plan going in... We drafted BPA and double dipped at CB and took gambled on Benford, Bernard, and a freaking punter.

 

I never said it was a bad draft. I said it was not planned well.

See above. Words matter.

They went in drafting players saying they were BPA but... They were of need and we got 2 to pan out. Shakir and Cook. Bernard is good but not great. He is also a little light for my liking and durability is a concern. We need a replacement in 2-3 years.

Feelings and such. Cute but we disagree.

Settle down, Dorothy.

I agree with most of your post but the only push back I'd give is I don't mind them double dipping at a position if one of those picks is a day three pick like Benford was.  Trading up for Elam is an example of the danger of having a gaping hole on your team which is where we were with our outside CB position.  Dane Jackson was our best CB at the time we had at the time with White still rehabbing from injury.  It was bad process trading up for Elam created by not adequately addressing the position the last couple of years before that relying on guys like Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson opposite Tre White.  

[boyst]

Just now, Rochesterfan said:

 

But no one does strict BPA.  There are always exceptions based upon the positional value, how deep a position is, how you grade people at that position, and your need nd depth.

 

The rare time someone drafts strict BPA is if someone unexpected falls a long way and the value is greater than everything else.

 

For example - Drafting Hall - the Bills may have had Hall and Cook rated similar and therefore Hall has significantly less value at the Bills pick in the first round.  The fall off at CB (a much higher positional value pick) may have been greater in their eye.

 

Additional you talk about drafting interior lineman - much lower positional value - and they had a plan that worked fine in McGovern and Edwards.

 

The thought process just makes no sense - teams rank their plays into various tiers based on a ton of criteria and then make decisions based upon a ton of factors - sometimes someone interviews incredibly and that brings them up boards and they get over drafted - I think Elam fits that.  Sometimes the interviews are terrible and guys fall - see Sanders.  
 

 

I get it. It's always a slippery slope with 20/20 hindsight.