How many wins do the Bills get without Josh?

[Gregg]

2 hours ago, Another Fan said:

Do you think Josh means more to the Bills though than Mahomes the Chiefs?

 

I would say yes. 

 

Chiefs have a better HC who has a great offensive mind, a better defense, and a better DC. This is not to say Mahomes isn't important to the Chiefs. Obviously, he is but he gets more help than Allen does. 

[uticaclub]

I think the Bills could be the first 6-11 division champion without Allen

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Another Fan said:

Or I’ll just say for the sake of argument average quarterback play.  
 

I’d say only 8 or 9.  
 

Point being I think too much is still put on his shoulders to carry the team.  

 

I personally think this post is extremely bad juju and should be terminated with prejudice.  But that's just me.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Didn't we just do this?

 

Less than a week ago.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Take away JA17 and this is a 5-6 win team if you are being objective.  The OL is the only unit on the team that is above average and it’s certain that JA pads their stats a little by being nearly impossible to sack.  The WRs are a pathetically weak group, TEs are average (with potential for better), RBs are good, but again, make them the focal point by taking away JA, they aren’t carrying anything. 
 

The defense is mediocre against good teams and if teams felt comfortable running and imposing their will, not fearing JA putting 30+ on them, they get mauled.  I have hopes for the DL being better and helping the LBs be able to move around and be effective again.  Thats all speculation at this point and the secondary is a huge question mark, we know of exactly two guys who would be starters on other teams.  Maybe the draft has made that better, maybe not.  
 

JA makes this team, it’s not a question and it’s not debatable in my eyes.  He IS the most VALUABLE player to any team in the league.  
 

I feel he is worth 2-3 more wins than Mahomes is to KC and I’d say 4-5 more than Jackson for Baltimore.  Baltimore was still reasonable before Henry, with guys that can’t even win back up jobs now.

 

I'd just like to point out that McDermott managed 9 wins and a playoff appearance with Tyrod Taylor at QB, starting Shaq Lawson, Adolphus Washington, Preston Brown, Ramon Humber, and EJ Gaines on D.

 

We did run the hell out of LeSean McCoy though and the OL was good.

[Another Fan]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I personally think this post is extremely bad juju and should be terminated with prejudice.  But that's just me.

We are all entitled to our own opinions 🤷‍♂️

Edited 5 hours ago by Another Fan

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

With Trubisky as QB for the entire season, the Bills would certainly draft in the top ten, if not top 5.

 

Jmo.

 

Yea if the replacement is Trubisky they win somewhere between 5 and 7 IMO. 

 

If it is league average Quarterback - the Geno Smith Test - it's 8 to 10

Just now, Another Fan said:

We are all entitled to our own opinions 🤷‍♂️

 

If only there was a thread where these opinions could be posted.....

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

who cares.

 

Everyone posting in this thread apparently, including myself who considers it bad juju.

 

10 minutes ago, Another Fan said:

We are all entitled to our own opinions 🤷‍♂️

 

Fair comeback.  I will say the problem with the "average QB play" trope is that it's very hard to find a backup who can deliver average QB play.  Kind of by definition, 16 average QBs are starting around the league on any given Sunday.  The ranks of "average QB" serving as backups are thin.

Edited 4 hours ago by Beck Water

[Royale with Cheese]

I mean, I think it depends on who he is replaced with.

 

If he's replaced with Daniel Jones, 6-7 wins.

If he's replaced with Joe Burrow, 11-14 wins.  

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Another Fan said:

Do you think Josh means more to the Bills though than Mahomes the Chiefs?

 

I would say yes. 

 

 

I would say no. 'Bout the same.

 

The fact we have different guesses shows what? Is evidence of what?

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Take away JA17 and this is a 5-6 win team if you are being objective.

 

 

Nah. That's silly. Objectivity has nothing to do with it. It's guesswork. And pessimistic guesswork at that.

 

The statisticians and analysts have said that a great QB is worth roughly five games beyond replacement value, much higher than a great player at any other position. 

 

 

 

 

[Einstein]

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/260284-record-with-and-without-insert-player-here/

 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Gregg said:

Didn't Brady get hurt in week 1 one year and was lost for the season and Belichick still managed to get 10 or 11 wins out of the Pats. I think Cassell was his QB that year. I believe they also missed the playoffs as well. As for the Bills playing without 17, I don't even want to think about it.

 

Well, yeah, but that doesn't show what you think it does. Yeah, the Pats won 11 that year. And 16 the year before. Five less games under Cassel.

 

Brady did get hurt. But the Pats also played a historically easy schedule that year under Cassel. Our division was up against the easiest slates ever, including our own division, as the Bills and Jets who were awful.

 

So easy that the Fins, who had gone 1-15 the year before won 11 games that year and the next year went back down to 7-9.

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/260284-record-with-and-without-insert-player-here/

 

 

 

Yes, just a day or two ago.

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

With Trubisky as QB for the entire season, the Bills would certainly draft in the top ten, if not top 5.

 

Jmo.

I get the sentiment, but I can't agree they would be that bad. 

 

My reasoning is that we have only seen Mitch here in Buffalo late in games when they are running the clock out and in preseason where they are just running basic plays.

 

I have some faith that if we knew Josh was missing the season that Joe Brady can scheme up an offense that goes more to the things Mitch does well.

 

It really wasn't that long ago Trubisky was the QB of not one but two not so good Bears teams that made the playoffs...with Matt Nagy as HC.

 

So IMO, either Mitch is a bit better than we are thinking, or the NFL has severely overlooked Matt Nagy as a legitimate amazing head coaching candidate for a second chance. 

[The Frankish Reich]

It's not hard to do a WOWY ("with or without you") for QB records based on injury games/backup starting. I did it a few years ago and didn't save my results.

 

But the common wisdom seems right. For teams with really good QBs and playoff hopes, it's usually "let's find a backup who can play roughly .500 ball while the starter is out." Of course a lot depends on the quality of the backup, but for most journeyman backups the .500 goal is reasonable.

 

The interesting thing when I dug into this: true "replacement level QBs" aren't nearly as bad as you'd expect. You sign a guy off the street because your starter and backup are hurt. Think Thad Lewis with the Bills in the Tyrod days. Or maybe Joshua Dobbs or Josh Johnson. Those guys aren't useless - they probably win about 1/3 of their games. So that's the baseline. Which is why it amazes me when a team's QB (or QBs) are so awful that they play less than .333 ball (6-11 or so) over an extended time. Think Jets.

[ngbills]

No Allen and its 5-6 wins. Allen carries a much bigger burden of the offense than any QB in the league. The running alone, whether short yardage 1st downs, redzone or scrambles would be hugely missed. Then the passing game relies on Allen adjusting, keeping plays alive or making throws only he makes. The offense lives on Allen's capabilities much more than a system that can perform with anyone.