Dr. Who Posted Monday at 12:56 PM Posted Monday at 12:56 PM 56 minutes ago, Jalan81 said: That is absolutely true, and I doubt our defense would have held up any better against Philly, but the point still stands, when needed, the offense didn’t and couldn’t make a first down at a short distance. Mostly because Brady didn’t have the answers when it mattered. Both sides of the ball failed, ultimately, as did coaching. Everyone needs to be better. The D needed more players, but WR is still an issue. 1 2 Quote
Pete Posted Monday at 01:16 PM Posted Monday at 01:16 PM On 5/25/2025 at 12:04 AM, ganesh said: Umm...It was the best ever offense in Bills History. It just did not have enough flashy plays to satisfy your appetite !!! or score a TD when it mattered against KC. Bills D sucked, put gave offense 2 chances to take the lead, and the best offense in Bills History was 0-2 3 Quote
LEBills Posted Monday at 01:42 PM Posted Monday at 01:42 PM 16 hours ago, folz said: Here is where the Bills rank in both passing and rushing attempts and yards over the last 5 years: PASSING RUSHING YEAR Atts Yds Atts Yds 2024 26th 9th 9th 9th 2023 16th 8th 5th 7th 2022 14th 8th 20th 9th 2021 5th 9th 13th 6th 2020 11th 3rd 17th 20th Not quite sure what to make of all of that. You can kind of see the flip in the rushing and passing attempts over the last two years, but the strange thing is that regardless of attempts, our overall ranking in yards has stayed pretty consistent over the last four years (2020 being the only outlier). Bills passing attempts and yards last 5 years (fyi): 2024: 520 for 3,875 2023: 579 for 4,154 2022: 574 for 4,129 2021: 655 for 4,284 2020: 596 for 4,620 Yeah Elijah Moore, and to a lesser extent Curtis Samuel, are the wild cards. I'm an optimistic fan, so I still think Samuel is a really good player and Moore is probably better than he's been able to show with the circumstances he was in (and he hasn't been a slouch as it is). It's just so hard to find enough balls to go around. Which is why I find it funny when people complain about weapons for Josh. We don't have that All-Pro #1 WR, but I think we have a ton of weapons (of course, I'm probably also higher on Keon, Kincaid, and Samuel in particular than some fans at this point). But...Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, Samuel, Moore, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Davis, and Johnson. That's 10 guys that are already proven in the league (well not sure if you would call Keon proven yet, but...). I think it's a pretty strong and solid cast overall. With the "everybody eats" mentality, it may come down to the hot hand, whose playing best at any given time (and also designing certain games for certain players based on opponents). So, for instance, if they think speed would work better against a particular defense, then maybe Moore and Samuel get more snaps than Keon and/or Palmer that particular game. And of course, there is a chance that Moore plays well and demands more playing time. But as it is right now, my guess would be that he and Samuel will be used more situationally (so will be 4th and 5th in WR targets). But who knows. It will be fun to see how they try to use everyone this season. the reason our rushing stats were so good in 21 and 22 was Josh. He had over 760 yards each season and averaged over 6 yards per run. The reason people complain about weapons is because we don’t have a top end player. And even when you look at the efficiency stats, the receiving corp is middling. I’m not here to argue for an upgrade this year because our team is set. But if you look at our current weapons and their yprr (efficiency rather than volume stats). Shakir is by far our best player ranked 16th of all WR (just ahead of ARSB) in 2024. Keon was 43rd, Palmer was 63rd (compared to Cooper at 67th - and Coopers 1.71 yprr with the Bills were equal to Palmers 1.71 year long yprr with the Chargers in 2024), Samuel was 84th, Moore was 110th (compared to Hollins at 90th) Kincaid was 12th and Knox 37th out of all tight ends. So the reason people are down on the group is that we did not really improve the weapons much. Just kinda swapped players that left for similar players. Anyone hoping that Palmer or Moore are going to take the team to a different level are going to be disappointed in my opinion. The real hope for the offense will be with Shakir, Keon and Kincaid. As well as Keon did for yprr for the season. He was worse than Mack Hollins yprr when he returned from injury. So you hope he can improve but it was a very disappointing end to his rookie season. Kincaid is our best hope imo as his efficiency actually improved from year one to year two. If he can stay healthy and figure out things with Josh, that is our most likely route to improvement. And the reason people want to see improvement from pass catchers is because despite our historic offense last year, we are skeptical we can be as meticulous and mistake free as 2024 and want better talent for Josh to make up any regression to the mean there. 3 2 1 Quote
Paup 1995MVP Posted Monday at 05:14 PM Posted Monday at 05:14 PM 19 hours ago, folz said: Here is where the Bills rank in both passing and rushing attempts and yards over the last 5 years: PASSING RUSHING YEAR Atts Yds Atts Yds 2024 26th 9th 9th 9th 2023 16th 8th 5th 7th 2022 14th 8th 20th 9th 2021 5th 9th 13th 6th 2020 11th 3rd 17th 20th Not quite sure what to make of all of that. You can kind of see the flip in the rushing and passing attempts over the last two years, but the strange thing is that regardless of attempts, our overall ranking in yards has stayed pretty consistent over the last four years (2020 being the only outlier). Bills passing attempts and yards last 5 years (fyi): 2024: 520 for 3,875 2023: 579 for 4,154 2022: 574 for 4,129 2021: 655 for 4,284 2020: 596 for 4,620 Yeah Elijah Moore, and to a lesser extent Curtis Samuel, are the wild cards. I'm an optimistic fan, so I still think Samuel is a really good player and Moore is probably better than he's been able to show with the circumstances he was in (and he hasn't been a slouch as it is). It's just so hard to find enough balls to go around. Which is why I find it funny when people complain about weapons for Josh. We don't have that All-Pro #1 WR, but I think we have a ton of weapons (of course, I'm probably also higher on Keon, Kincaid, and Samuel in particular than some fans at this point). But...Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, Samuel, Moore, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Davis, and Johnson. That's 10 guys that are already proven in the league (well not sure if you would call Keon proven yet, but...). I think it's a pretty strong and solid cast overall. With the "everybody eats" mentality, it may come down to the hot hand, whose playing best at any given time (and also designing certain games for certain players based on opponents). So, for instance, if they think speed would work better against a particular defense, then maybe Moore and Samuel get more snaps than Keon and/or Palmer that particular game. And of course, there is a chance that Moore plays well and demands more playing time. But as it is right now, my guess would be that he and Samuel will be used more situationally (so will be 4th and 5th in WR targets). But who knows. It will be fun to see how they try to use everyone this season. Thanks for the numbers Folz. That’s awesome. Our yards per attempt last year was very high. I am surprised we were that high in the league in yards. I just never thought of our team as an aerial circus. Josh didn’t seem to throw for 300-400 yards every week like Burrow and some other guys. (He certainly could have if our offense was predicated on that ) Can you give me the stats for the 8 teams above us in passing yards last year? A big factor of late has been how defense has changed the past couple years. Lots of prevent type two deep safety looks making teams throw a lot of underneath stuff around the league. I find that boring. I remember years ago on any 3rd and long teams would rush 6-7 guys and try knock the QB out. Now everyone lines up at the 1st down marker and plays prevent giving up 9-11 yards on 3rd and 17. That works a lot, but teams go for it on 4th down a lot more now. So you still need some tight D on 3rd down. With the defensive schemes today, You just don’t see as much deep passing week to week. We do have a lot of weapons. Letting Cooper go was fine. He basically sucked last year and is pretty much shot. He can’t outrun anyone. Hollins had some big plays in the AFCCG. But certainly isn’t dominating anyone week in and week out. Palmer and Moore should be upgrades. I just can’t wait for some real football by this time of the offseason. 2 Quote
folz Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Posted Monday at 05:56 PM 24 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said: Thanks for the numbers Folz. That’s awesome. Our yards per attempt last year was very high. I am surprised we were that high in the league in yards. I just never thought of our team as an aerial circus. Josh didn’t seem to throw for 300-400 yards every week like Burrow and some other guys. (He certainly could have if our offense was predicated on that ) Can you give me the stats for the 8 teams above us in passing yards last year? A big factor of late has been how defense has changed the past couple years. Lots of prevent type two deep safety looks making teams throw a lot of underneath stuff around the league. I find that boring. I remember years ago on any 3rd and long teams would rush 6-7 guys and try knock the QB out. Now everyone lines up at the 1st down marker and plays prevent giving up 9-11 yards on 3rd and 17. That works a lot, but teams go for it on 4th down a lot more now. So you still need some tight D on 3rd down. With the defensive schemes today, You just don’t see as much deep passing week to week. We do have a lot of weapons. Letting Cooper go was fine. He basically sucked last year and is pretty much shot. He can’t outrun anyone. Hollins had some big plays in the AFCCG. But certainly isn’t dominating anyone week in and week out. Palmer and Moore should be upgrades. I just can’t wait for some real football by this time of the offseason. Here are the top 10 passing teams from 2024 (by yards): Atts Yards Yds/Att Bengals 652 4,640 7.1 Lions 551 4,474 8.1 Bucs 571 4,257 7.4 49ers 533 4,231 7.9 Falcons 559 4,068 7.3 Vikings 548 4,043 7.4 Ravens 477 4,035 8.5 Seahawks 593 4,020 6.8 Bills 520 3,875 7.5 Rams 559 3,868 6.9 Bills were also tied for 6th in passing TDs, tied for 3rd in fewest interceptions, and were number one in fewest sacks allowed. 3 Quote
folz Posted Monday at 06:13 PM Posted Monday at 06:13 PM (edited) 4 hours ago, LEBills said: the reason our rushing stats were so good in 21 and 22 was Josh. He had over 760 yards each season and averaged over 6 yards per run. The reason people complain about weapons is because we don’t have a top end player. And even when you look at the efficiency stats, the receiving corp is middling. I’m not here to argue for an upgrade this year because our team is set. But if you look at our current weapons and their yprr (efficiency rather than volume stats). Shakir is by far our best player ranked 16th of all WR (just ahead of ARSB) in 2024. Keon was 43rd, Palmer was 63rd (compared to Cooper at 67th - and Coopers 1.71 yprr with the Bills were equal to Palmers 1.71 year long yprr with the Chargers in 2024), Samuel was 84th, Moore was 110th (compared to Hollins at 90th) Kincaid was 12th and Knox 37th out of all tight ends. So the reason people are down on the group is that we did not really improve the weapons much. Just kinda swapped players that left for similar players. Anyone hoping that Palmer or Moore are going to take the team to a different level are going to be disappointed in my opinion. The real hope for the offense will be with Shakir, Keon and Kincaid. As well as Keon did for yprr for the season. He was worse than Mack Hollins yprr when he returned from injury. So you hope he can improve but it was a very disappointing end to his rookie season. Kincaid is our best hope imo as his efficiency actually improved from year one to year two. If he can stay healthy and figure out things with Josh, that is our most likely route to improvement. And the reason people want to see improvement from pass catchers is because despite our historic offense last year, we are skeptical we can be as meticulous and mistake free as 2024 and want better talent for Josh to make up any regression to the mean there. Yeah, thanks. That makes sense (regarding the rushing stats). I didn't weigh Josh into my thinking. He has run a lot less the last couple of years, and therefore helped pad the team rushing stats in '21 and '22 (despite the lower number of rushing attempts overall). And yes, we are pretty much a split fanbase when it comes to the wide receivers. Some think we still need that true #1 and some are all on board with the "everyone eats" (spread the ball around to multiple above average weapons, rather than run through a stud). I know that is a very simplified way of looking at the two sides (some of the division is also on how good we think the guys we have are), but you know what I mean. Some think it worked last year and there should be at least slight improvement in our weapons this year (FA additions/experience for younger players), so we should be fine running it back. But, believe me, I do understand the argument for having a true #1 when it comes to crunch time in the playoffs particularly. And I agree that if you are comparing WRs only with other teams, our group does look middling. But, again, that is why I look at the weapons as a whole (including the RBs). And some might consider Cook a top-end player. Shakir too (not a #1 Wr, but a top-end slot guy). I mean Josh/Cook/Shakir isn't a bad "Big Three" (even though Shakir isn't an outside receiver or have the stats of a true #1). Anyhow, I don't think anyone expects Palmer and Moore to take us to another level. We were happy with the level from last year (for the most part) and I think we are at least slightly improved from last year. Subtractions: Mack Hollins (66.72% snap count in 2024) and Amari Cooper (21.97% snap count in 2024). Those two players combined for 675 yards and 7 TDs last year. Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore, on their respective teams last year, combined for 70.5% snap counts (each) and 1,122 yards with 2 TDs (and Moore was working with some shoddy QB play). So, I feel pretty confident that they can at least match the production that was lost. Overall, I just don't see Amari as a big loss. He played 8 regular season games last year (again less than 22% of the total offensive snaps) and only had more than 3 receptions twice. He had two TDs total on the year. He was injured for part of his time and acclimating to a new team/QB mid-season. In the three playoff games combined, he had 6 receptions for 41 yards and no TDs. And I loved Mack, but Palmer and Moore are both better receivers than he is (more athletically gifted). Other than that, the offense is completely the same as last year (with the addition of a true blocking TE also, albeit a rookie; and experience---Keon going into year two, Kincaid year 3, etc.), so I don't expect to see a drop-off in that area (as far as overall weapons). As to the mistake-free, yes Josh threw the fewest interceptions of his career last year and the offense as a whole protected the ball well. I think the reasons for that are multi-fold: part of that is Josh growing as a player, part of it is having a good offensive line, part of it is having more sure-handed receivers than we had in the past, but I also think that a big part of it is how they ran the offense last year. Heavier run game (49/51 run/pass split). A lot of short, quick throws (slants, screens, outlets to RBs). Not forcing the ball to anyone. Scheming guys open. Etc. I think we will run the offense similarly, the O-line is still good, Josh is at a point in his career where he isn't going to regress, we still have sure-handed receivers (for the most part). So, again, I don't see where we should regress that much. Josh might have a few more interceptions, but I don't think he'll fall off a cliff or anything. Plus, the defense should be better (so, I don't expect a significant drop-off in number of turnovers created---plus a better defense overall should help the offense in many ways---field position, not playing from behind and having to force things, etc.; not that we had to do that a lot in 2024). We both obviously like stats (and I'm not ignoring your yprr data), but I kind of look at it like this (obviously these are my opinions, not any type of solid data): QB: Top 3 (I'd say #1, but...) RBs: Top-5 unit O-line: Top 5-7 unit TEs: Top 10 unit WRs: ? I doubt any team is basically top 5/top 10 across the board in all offensive units. So, even if our receivers are middling as a unit, the overall offense is still very strong. Again, I do understand the WR issue from the other side too, and if the Bills were to get a #1 WR type (in the draft/FA/trade), I wouldn't say no thanks we don't need him, but I also think we can successfully run back the offense that we had last year (with slight improvements even). I don't think it is unrepeatable with what we have. Some may not think we got better/stronger on offense, but I don't really think anyone can argue that we got weaker (or less talented). Obviously, at this point, most people aren't going to change their minds in this debate. And as you said, the team is pretty well set this year (we don't expect Beane to make any big move at the WR position). So, I guess we'll just have to see how the season plays out and then reassess the situation (hoping it hasn't been a big issue/achilles heel, of course). Edited Monday at 06:19 PM by folz 1 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted Monday at 07:58 PM Posted Monday at 07:58 PM 1 hour ago, folz said: Here are the top 10 passing teams from 2024 (by yards): Atts Yards Yds/Att Bengals 652 4,640 7.1 Lions 551 4,474 8.1 Bucs 571 4,257 7.4 49ers 533 4,231 7.9 Falcons 559 4,068 7.3 Vikings 548 4,043 7.4 Ravens 477 4,035 8.5 Seahawks 593 4,020 6.8 Bills 520 3,875 7.5 Rams 559 3,868 6.9 Bills were also tied for 6th in passing TDs, tied for 3rd in fewest interceptions, and were number one in fewest sacks allowed. I think we already touched on this topic earlier in the thread but he Bills were not 9th in passing yardage. They were 17th. The figures you are referencing are "net" passing yards..........which subtracts sack yardage. If you are historically great/lucky at not turning the ball over and your QB never gets sacked that's going to greatly benefit your "net" numbers. But if you are judging the quality of talent in the passing game........remember this........the league DOES NOT subtract sack yardage from QB's individual passing yardage(or the WR's, naturally). @Paup 1995MVP's reaction to your post reflects how misleading including sack data is. By no means was the Bills 2024 passing game an aerial circus. 2 3 Quote
akcash Posted Monday at 07:59 PM Posted Monday at 07:59 PM (edited) I’ll be honest I would not be surprised if 3 starting WRs week one are Samuel, Palmer, Shakir Samuel if healthy could be a nice option. Here is his Reception Perception from ‘23. I believe Samuel is the third highest paid WR too. I think Coleman would slot in nicely at the Mack role/Gabe Davis role before he was WR 2. WR 4 seems to me like a good fit for him until he develops more if he he can. Edited Monday at 08:00 PM by akcash 1 Quote
Paup 1995MVP Posted Monday at 09:12 PM Posted Monday at 09:12 PM 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: I think we already touched on this topic earlier in the thread but he Bills were not 9th in passing yardage. They were 17th. The figures you are referencing are "net" passing yards..........which subtracts sack yardage. If you are historically great/lucky at not turning the ball over and your QB never gets sacked that's going to greatly benefit your "net" numbers. But if you are judging the quality of talent in the passing game........remember this........the league DOES NOT subtract sack yardage from QB's individual passing yardage(or the WR's, naturally). @Paup 1995MVP's reaction to your post reflects how misleading including sack data is. By no means was the Bills 2024 passing game an aerial circus. 17th feels a lot more like where we were just watching us play all our games versus 9th, without even looking at the true numbers. Rushing we seemed like a top 5 unit. Very dominant most weeks. Had a 70’s or 80’s feel to it at times. With Josh Allen we should never be out of the top 10 in passing yardage. But Joe Brady’s offense played heavily into a dominant run blocking O line. And for the most part it was very successful. However, you still have to be able to stretch the field vertically. Because teams will eventually figure out what you are doing. Brady really needs to include some route concepts that make for open throws 20-25 yards down the field on a consistent basis. All of our receivers this year should be able to do that. Because you can not go into a season with the exact same offensive scheme from the year before. There have to be wrinkles and variations. 3 Quote
LEBills Posted yesterday at 01:51 AM Posted yesterday at 01:51 AM 6 hours ago, folz said: And yes, we are pretty much a split fanbase when it comes to the wide receivers. Some think we still need that true #1 and some are all on board with the "everyone eats" (spread the ball around to multiple above average weapons, rather than run through a stud). I know that is a very simplified way of looking at the two sides (some of the division is also on how good we think the guys we have are), but you know what I mean. Some think it worked last year and there should be at least slight improvement in our weapons this year (FA additions/experience for younger players), so we should be fine running it back. But, believe me, I do understand the argument for having a true #1 when it comes to crunch time in the playoffs particularly. And I agree that if you are comparing WRs only with other teams, our group does look middling. But, again, that is why I look at the weapons as a whole (including the RBs). And some might consider Cook a top-end player. Shakir too (not a #1 Wr, but a top-end slot guy). I mean Josh/Cook/Shakir isn't a bad "Big Three" (even though Shakir isn't an outside receiver or have the stats of a true #1). Anyhow, I don't think anyone expects Palmer and Moore to take us to another level. We were happy with the level from last year (for the most part) and I think we are at least slightly improved from last year. Subtractions: Mack Hollins (66.72% snap count in 2024) and Amari Cooper (21.97% snap count in 2024). Those two players combined for 675 yards and 7 TDs last year. Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore, on their respective teams last year, combined for 70.5% snap counts (each) and 1,122 yards with 2 TDs (and Moore was working with some shoddy QB play). So, I feel pretty confident that they can at least match the production that was lost. Overall, I just don't see Amari as a big loss. He played 8 regular season games last year (again less than 22% of the total offensive snaps) and only had more than 3 receptions twice. He had two TDs total on the year. He was injured for part of his time and acclimating to a new team/QB mid-season. In the three playoff games combined, he had 6 receptions for 41 yards and no TDs. And I loved Mack, but Palmer and Moore are both better receivers than he is (more athletically gifted). Other than that, the offense is completely the same as last year (with the addition of a true blocking TE also, albeit a rookie; and experience---Keon going into year two, Kincaid year 3, etc.), so I don't expect to see a drop-off in that area (as far as overall weapons). As to the mistake-free, yes Josh threw the fewest interceptions of his career last year and the offense as a whole protected the ball well. I think the reasons for that are multi-fold: part of that is Josh growing as a player, part of it is having a good offensive line, part of it is having more sure-handed receivers than we had in the past, but I also think that a big part of it is how they ran the offense last year. Heavier run game (49/51 run/pass split). A lot of short, quick throws (slants, screens, outlets to RBs). Not forcing the ball to anyone. Scheming guys open. Etc. I think we will run the offense similarly, the O-line is still good, Josh is at a point in his career where he isn't going to regress, we still have sure-handed receivers (for the most part). So, again, I don't see where we should regress that much. Josh might have a few more interceptions, but I don't think he'll fall off a cliff or anything. Plus, the defense should be better (so, I don't expect a significant drop-off in number of turnovers created---plus a better defense overall should help the offense in many ways---field position, not playing from behind and having to force things, etc.; not that we had to do that a lot in 2024). We both obviously like stats (and I'm not ignoring your yprr data), but I kind of look at it like this (obviously these are my opinions, not any type of solid data): QB: Top 3 (I'd say #1, but...) RBs: Top-5 unit O-line: Top 5-7 unit TEs: Top 10 unit WRs: ? I doubt any team is basically top 5/top 10 across the board in all offensive units. So, even if our receivers are middling as a unit, the overall offense is still very strong. Again, I do understand the WR issue from the other side too, and if the Bills were to get a #1 WR type (in the draft/FA/trade), I wouldn't say no thanks we don't need him, but I also think we can successfully run back the offense that we had last year (with slight improvements even). I don't think it is unrepeatable with what we have. Some may not think we got better/stronger on offense, but I don't really think anyone can argue that we got weaker (or less talented). Obviously, at this point, most people aren't going to change their minds in this debate. And as you said, the team is pretty well set this year (we don't expect Beane to make any big move at the WR position). So, I guess we'll just have to see how the season plays out and then reassess the situation (hoping it hasn't been a big issue/achilles heel, of course). Yes I think there are two camps. One that thinks we can recreate the same offense as last year and that is good enough, and one that thinks we need EITHER a top end WR1 or a wide receiver room with several good WRs. Beane clearly is in the former group. What gets many people upset is that to build a strong WR room, good draft capital has to be used and so it takes several years to develop a strong stable. I do think Allen/Cook/Shakir is a good enough top 3 to get a Super Bowl. But I’ll also add that anyone who believes that should be banging the table to get a deal done for Cook (I am one of those people). I look at efficiency metrics when comparing the FAs leaving - Cooper and Hollins to the FAs coming in - Palmer and Moore because circumstance does affect volume numbers. We are taking a big hit on touchdown percentage going from Cooper (9.1%) and Hollins (16.1%) to Palmer (2.6%) and Moore (1.6%). In addition to basically a wash on yprr, Cooper (1.48) and Hollins (1.08) to Palmer (1.71) and Moore (0.93). And just scheme wise, Palmer will be a fine enough replacement for Cooper but Moore is essentially a backup for Shakir in the slot. Im serious when I say we played mistake free football last year. Yes Josh is great, has matured and the scheme does not need him to make as many risky throws. But we also had only 2 fumbles lost and a historic low sack percentage (again thanks to Josh and the OLine). All together the 2024 Bills had the lowest negative plays (interceptions/fumbles/sacks) in the Super Bowl era. Even with how great Josh is, that simply will regress to the mean. The Eagles, the team that won the Super Bowl, are stacked across all offensive units. Even Jalen Hurts is probably a top 10 QB when you include the rushing ability. It can be done, but it takes investment in the offense which the Bills have done in many ways, but needed to do more over the past several years at WR imo. I do think that this team is good enough to win a Super Bowl because Josh is otherworldly. But I can’t say the offense got better over this offseason. My gripe will always be not adding WRs to the pipeline to develop via the draft (Keon is literally the only day 1 or 2 pick of Beane’s career) a truly deep above average WR room and instead filling the holes with mediocre to bad free agents. Kincaid and Cook are going to be the key. If Kincaid can be a functional blocker, he can hopefully improve his touchdown percentage which sits as 25th in the league. TDs is basically what separates him from Laporta. Similarly, if Cook can improve as a pass blocker he can be used more on third down where he is our most efficient running back pass catcher (yes better than Ty Johnson). If Kincaid can hit 750 yards and 8 touchdowns and Cook keep his rushing but produce his 2023 receiving stats (basically 500 more receiving yards from the two of them), then that should be enough to make up for our WR room. If Keon can be more consistent, that would help too. We can do it, but the margins are razor thin imo 1 1 1 Quote
SoonerBillsFan Posted yesterday at 02:10 AM Posted yesterday at 02:10 AM 8 hours ago, folz said: Here are the top 10 passing teams from 2024 (by yards): Atts Yards Yds/Att Bengals 652 4,640 7.1 Lions 551 4,474 8.1 Bucs 571 4,257 7.4 49ers 533 4,231 7.9 Falcons 559 4,068 7.3 Vikings 548 4,043 7.4 Ravens 477 4,035 8.5 Seahawks 593 4,020 6.8 Bills 520 3,875 7.5 Rams 559 3,868 6.9 Bills were also tied for 6th in passing TDs, tied for 3rd in fewest interceptions, and were number one in fewest sacks allowed. I would love a 5000 yard, 45+ passing TD season from Josh. But im a geek that way lol Quote
folz Posted yesterday at 08:19 AM Posted yesterday at 08:19 AM (edited) 12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: I think we already touched on this topic earlier in the thread but he Bills were not 9th in passing yardage. They were 17th. The figures you are referencing are "net" passing yards..........which subtracts sack yardage. If you are historically great/lucky at not turning the ball over and your QB never gets sacked that's going to greatly benefit your "net" numbers. But if you are judging the quality of talent in the passing game........remember this........the league DOES NOT subtract sack yardage from QB's individual passing yardage(or the WR's, naturally). @Paup 1995MVP's reaction to your post reflects how misleading including sack data is. By no means was the Bills 2024 passing game an aerial circus. My bad...I used ESPN stats and cross referenced with Pro-Football Reference and Football Database. They all had the same number of yards and the same ranking (9th). They did not denote anywhere that they were "net" passing yards, i.e. that it was minus sack yards (and I wasn't thinking about that). I should have just gone to NFL.com. Thanks BADOL. Anyhow, I'm updating the rankings I posted earlier, using NFL official stats (that does not subtract sack yards lost): Here is where the Bills rank in both total passing and rushing attempts and yards over the last 5 years: PASSING RUSHING YEAR Atts Yds Atts Yds 2024 26th 17th 9th 9th 2023 16th 10th 5th 7th 2022 14th 9th 20th 9th 2021 5th 10th 13th 6th 2020 11th 3rd 17th 20th And just some more data to weigh in: Buffalo Bills Total Yards and Points Last Five Years (Regular Season) YEAR Off Yards Points 2024 6,168 525 2023 6,518 451 2022 6,523 455 2021 6,659 423 2020 6,509 501 On average, we had 384 yards less of total offense than the previous four years (~22.6 yards/game), but it was also our highest scoring year. 🤷♂️ I guess you could chalk that up to fewer mistakes (fewer turnovers and sacks). So, again, the question is can they maintain that (or not fall too far back to the mean in those categories). It could also be a bit that we had some games where they let their foot off the gas in the 4th and/or 3rd quarters due to big leads. Without looking at every game/how many blowouts per year, I thought a quick way to get an idea if there was more of that last year than the previous four years was to look at the Bills' backup QB snap counts: 2024 = 11.22%; 2023 = 3.26%; 2022 = 2.21%; 2021 = 3.08%; 2020 = 4.57%. So, our backup QBs did play a significant more number of snaps last year in blowouts/week17 (so maybe that weighs in too a bit---re: fewer yards). Buffalo Bills Yards/Game and Points/Game (McDermott Post-Season) YEAR Yards/GM Points/GM 2024 380 29 2023 375 27.5 2022 393.5 22 2021 460 41.5 2020 358 22.7 2019 425 19 2017 263 3 [Last year was basically our second best offensive performance in the playoffs, after 2021.] Edited yesterday at 08:21 AM by folz 1 Quote
ClosetFan Posted yesterday at 09:34 AM Posted yesterday at 09:34 AM 15 hours ago, folz said: Here are the top 10 passing teams from 2024 (by yards): Atts Yards Yds/Att Bengals 652 4,640 7.1 Lions 551 4,474 8.1 Bucs 571 4,257 7.4 49ers 533 4,231 7.9 Falcons 559 4,068 7.3 Vikings 548 4,043 7.4 Ravens 477 4,035 8.5 Seahawks 593 4,020 6.8 Bills 520 3,875 7.5 Rams 559 3,868 6.9 Bills were also tied for 6th in passing TDs, tied for 3rd in fewest interceptions, and were number one in fewest sacks allowed. Interesting . . . None of these teams made it to the superbowl. Maybe the passing game is over hyped. 1 1 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted yesterday at 02:47 PM Posted yesterday at 02:47 PM (edited) 5 hours ago, ClosetFan said: Interesting . . . None of these teams made it to the superbowl. Maybe the passing game is over hyped. I posted it somewhere else before but the average SB winner's offensive and defensive ranking over the last decade or so was surprisingly low. I think it was an average of 9th for both. So there isn't really a direct correlation between very high regular season rankings and postseason success. But over the past decade the quality of your second receiving option has been as big of an indicator that you will reach the SB as any. That was true again for the winner this year as Devonta Smith averaged 64 yards receiving per game as option #2 for Philly. AJ Brown averaged 83. Those are big numbers that project over 1,000 in a 17 game season. The bulk totals for Hurts/Brown/Smith were down this year due to games missed to injuries but they easily have the most talented 1-2 WR pair in the NFC. Bills fans often cite the Chiefs as an exception. Like they haven't had high end receiving talent. But 2024 was the only season since 2015 that the Chiefs haven't had two of the top 32 receiving yardage producers in the NFL. The Bills haven't had a top 32 ranked 1-2 punch since Diggs/Beasley in 2020. Basically, the Bills are trying to be a significant outlier. At least the 2023 Chiefs went into camp thinking they had still fringe superstar Kelce and a rising star in Rice.......who was on a 1400+ yard pace prior to his injury. Unless the Bills make an unexpected move this will be the second consecutive year they have entered the season without a receiver who has put up at least 900 yards at some point in their NFL career. For perspective, before that it had been almost 40 years since they started a season without someone who'd at least put up 1,000 in a season. "Everyone eats" or not they are accepting a pretty low standard. Edited yesterday at 02:56 PM by BADOLBILZ 2 1 Quote
Big Blitz Posted yesterday at 03:46 PM Posted yesterday at 03:46 PM 13 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Hopefully a good sign: 2 Quote
KentuckyBillsFan Posted yesterday at 05:15 PM Posted yesterday at 05:15 PM Coleman legit had flashes before his injury... particularly the games against the Seahawks and Titans. I think there is talent there it just needs a lot of polish if he's going to be worth his draft spot. 1 Quote
SoonerBillsFan Posted yesterday at 06:52 PM Posted yesterday at 06:52 PM 1 hour ago, KentuckyBillsFan said: Coleman legit had flashes before his injury... particularly the games against the Seahawks and Titans. I think there is talent there it just needs a lot of polish if he's going to be worth his draft spot. Sometimes a big time wakeup call is needed. Quote
Mat68 Posted 23 hours ago Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said: Sometimes a big time wakeup call is needed. Also the role. Single wr and run heavy formation Coleman will be on the field. He became a beast taking that role from MVS. I think Coleman will have a Marqise Colston or Micheal Thomas type impact and season. Slants from the X and attack the seems from the slot. Coleman was top 5 in the NFL in yards after catch over expectations. For his size he is great after the catch. Him playing 215-220 isnt much but imo noticeable. At the end of the year I think Coleman emerges more so than Kincaid. 1 Quote
The Wiz Posted 23 hours ago Posted 23 hours ago 5 hours ago, HappyDays said: Hopefully a good sign: 5 hours ago, Big Blitz said: 4 1 Quote
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