Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not assuming that he will and I’m not assuming that he won’t. I HOPE he improves. I’m not assuming it or not assuming it. 

 

It's good that you're not assuming because if you were, you'd risk making an ass out of you and ming.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

12 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:

Steve Smith grades Keon and it's not favorable 

 

 

 

 

"He doesn't have the speed."  Case closed.  

[CoudyBills]

9 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

I did say “unscientifically”, to be fair. 
 

Indeed.  I was just being a wise ass, no malice intended.

[Mikie2times]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't that he can't improve. It's that in round 1 (I know Keon was technically #33 but you take the point) you generally want high floor, high ceiling. By the end of the round those guys, inevitably, have gone so your choice is generally high floor, lower ceiling or low floor, high ceiling. Essnetially do you prefer the safe pick of swing for the fences. 

 

The problem with Keon is he is relatively low floor and lower ceiling. The way he has struggled so far in the pros is exactly the way those of us who didn't love him as a prospect thought he'd struggle. And the ways he has had success - screens and slants near the line of scrimmage 'ball in hand' and yards after catch - are the ways we thought he was most likely to succeed. When I first said as far ago as February last year that I thought he was a big slot at the next level I got a ton of pushback. Matt Harmon said the exact same thing 3 weeks later. So far the evidence supports our opinion.

I also think he would be much better fit for the big slot role. But we have Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Moore who are all likely better in the slot than anywhere else. Throw in Keon. Just not a lot of room for Keon to get reps there. 

 

[Richard Noggin]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect…But that really isn’t a fair list to show he has an affinity or type IMHO.  Only Gabe and Keon were drafted to be potential long term starters and were when we had no size in the WR room.  Mack was a bandaid to fill dirty work for the void Gabe left in a season we had $31M dead cap at WR alone.

 

Holmes was a ST player, Duke was a CFL nothing invested PS player, so was Shorter.  And KB was added midseason of a year we weren’t supposed to make the playoffs when we suddenly had a chance to break the drought.  And there were no other WRs traded, so it’s not like he had his pick and chose KB.  

 

Almost all the actual relevant WRs to play real minutes here were smaller.  We had John Brown…then he invested a first and a 4th in Diggs and gave him big money multiple times.  He added guys like Sanders, Samuel, and Shakir to play outside or mix in some outside.  Not

to mention the rest of our WR room had guys like Cole, McKenzie, Crowder, Harty, etc.  
 

So no offense, but I don’t think his type is what you think it is.  Yes went after size and toughness when Gabe left because all we had was a small WR room.  We use blocking at the WR position a lot, and it’s one of the reasons we originally drafted Gabe because we had no size.  Just like Keon, we had no size.  It’s not a “type” it was a hole in the roster when we added Mack/Keon last year and Gabe before them.  Our WR room was known as

midgets prior to Gabe getting here even.  
 

Beane does have a type though IMHO…his type is, and has been, balance.  Right or wrong, that’s his real type IMO.  And he has added some influence and second layer into his type lately too which is toughness as we were not physical enough across the table, not just at WR.

 

And I personally think last year was Allen’s best year playing QB, not the years throwing to small WRs and having the most turnovers in the NFL days.  Again, just my opinion, but I think more people believe 2024 was his best season than don’t.

 

Im personally excited to see what year 2 of Brady’s offense brings and how this team comes together.  

 

Does it change your argument a little if Duke Williams was a playoff starter for the Bills? Or if Davis was a starter for way too many postseasons? I totally agree that none of those listed rag-tag boundary options were ever meant to be the team's best option at the position, but that we ended up there nonetheless. 

[Figster]

On 5/16/2025 at 9:10 PM, LEBills said:

Basically exactly what there college RP was:

 

 

If you double the times targeted on Coleman which is almost what you have to do to get a fair comparison. For one the player targeted twice as much is given a much better opportunity to gel with the QB. In turn completion percentage will go up along with better performance route running in the NFL IMO. Big difference in size and Coleman does need to be used properly. Rookies

 

I also think it's interesting just by doubling the number of times Colemans targeted both players have similar production. Colemans averaging 5 yards more per reception. Mcconkey longest play 60 yards. Colemans, 64 yards

 

Apples and oranges...  

Edited 7 hours ago by Figster

[Kirby Jackson]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

If he had 3 more catches he would’ve been #2 in the nfl in yards per reception.  Making big plays is what he did in college.  He also made big plays last season.  He posterized a plus tall and lanky corner in woolen. 
 

I expect him to get better.  I think that’s fair to say about many players.  

The yards per reception point is a good one. He was really good after the catch. I should retract my, “he didn’t show anything beyond what was expected” because he did maximize yards at an elite level. 
 

He’s big and physical. There were times when he had the ball and looked like a poor man’s Ja’Marr Chase. Those moments make you salivate. I saw this the other day too and it was really encouraging:

While he wasn’t efficient in terms of a “per target” basis, he was dynamic when he did get the ball. That does give me optimism and hope. I don’t think that he will ever be a high volume usage guy because of his lack of separation but there are multiple signs of him being a big play guy. The Bills have had a need for chunk plays. Coleman looks like he can provide them. If he can be a big play guy, and fill some of the physicality void that left with Mack, Coleman can be a rich man’s Gabe Davis. He can replicate what Gabe did well (block and get down the field) while also adding YAC that those Bills teams lacked. 

 

[ProcessTruster]

Lets see how he does this season.   

 

BTW, I know this is a "Beane sucks" OP, but the McConkey-led Chargers were pretty much hot garbage last season as well.   

[LEBills]

3 hours ago, Figster said:

If you double the times targeted on Coleman which is almost what you have to do to get a fair comparison. For one the player targeted twice as much is given a much better opportunity to gel with the QB. In turn completion percentage will go up along with better performance route running in the NFL IMO. Big difference in size and Coleman does need to be used properly. Rookies

 

I also think it's interesting just by doubling the number of times Colemans targeted both players have similar production. Colemans averaging 5 yards more per reception. Mcconkey longest play 60 yards. Colemans, 64 yards

 

Apples and oranges...  

 

Reception perception looks at each route run by the player and decides when the route is “won” due to separation on all routes ran rather than completion percentage on when a player was targeted. Doubling the routes gives you a greater sample size but isn’t really needed for a comparison. Also, these RPs are from their last year in college when Keon ran 404 routes vs McConkey who only ran 150 due to injury.

 

It is true that they are different players. McConkey game is geared more towards separation than Keon who is more about physicality. That’s why McConkeys score is much higher in the RP at most routes. McConkey did have an 86 yard touchdown in their playoff game. IMO, unless Coleman can become a better route runner to generate separation he will just be a very streaky player. His biggest plays last year were a slant where he broke a tackle and had a lot of free space to run or some scramble drill work. He has a role in an offense that way and as a weapon in the red zone, but that would be more of a WR3 type role than a leading WR.

[balln]

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/chiefs-see-rookie-receiver-jalen-royals-as-a-similar-player-to-rashee-rice
 

chiefs get it. Why can’t Brandon ? Let it go. We don’t need meh rotational backup DL and secondary. MULTIPLES of them 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, balln said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/chiefs-see-rookie-receiver-jalen-royals-as-a-similar-player-to-rashee-rice
 

chiefs get it. Why can’t Brandon ? Let it go. We don’t need meh rotational backup DL and secondary. MULTIPLES of them 

So now a day 3 pick who hasn’t played a down in the league is proof Beane is bad at his job.  I love this time of year.

[LEBills]

2 minutes ago, balln said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/chiefs-see-rookie-receiver-jalen-royals-as-a-similar-player-to-rashee-rice
 

chiefs get it. Why can’t Brandon ? Let it go. We don’t need meh rotational backup DL and secondary. MULTIPLES of them 

The Chiefs have such a type at WR. All the WRs they have drafted over the past 4 years have run a sub 1.5 10 yard split according to their nfl.com combine results (which is elite explosion for the position). Royals isn’t a finished product yet but as a WR3 he could be very dangerous. Would have preferred a different team to draft him. 

[balln]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So now a day 3 pick who hasn’t played a down in the league is proof Beane is bad at his job.  I love this time of year.

It’s the philosophy. They’re doing it right. We’re doing it wrong. Objectively 
 

3 super bowls. 5 appearances
Vs

0 appearances 

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, balln said:

It’s the philosophy. They’re doing it right. We’re doing it wrong. Objectively 
 

3 super bowls. 5 appearances
Vs

0 appearances 

Which WRs made the Chiefs offense a juggernaut the past couple years?

[balln]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Which WRs made the Chiefs offense a juggernaut the past couple years?

Rashee rice and James worthy 

are better by a good amount than 

Shakir and whoever you want to put as #2

 

again this is a philosophy / roster building post. Bills have been ok / good. Cheifs have been better 

Edited 3 hours ago by balln

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, balln said:

Rashee rice and James worthy 

are better by a good amount than 

Shakir and whoever you want to put as #2

James Worthy is a retired LA Laker I believe.  The Chiefs offense is great because they have a first ballot HOF head coach that is great at calling plays, a first ballot HOF QB who is great at executing the offense, and a first ballot HOF TE that has defied coverage schemes for years.  Not because they have great WRs.  
 

Look back at the Chiefs drafts the past few years.  Guys like Skye Moore, Cornell Powell, Mecole Hardman.  Not exactly threats.

Edited 3 hours ago by oldmanfan

[balln]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

James Worthy is a retired LA Laker I believe.  The Chiefs offense is great because they have a first ballot HOF head coach that is great at calling plays, a first ballot HOF QB who is great at executing the offense, and a first ballot HOF TE that has defied coverage schemes for years.  Not because they have great WRs.  
 

Look back at the Chiefs drafts the past few years.  Guys like Skye Moore, Cornell Powell, Mecole Hardman.  Not exactly threats.

Xavier = James in my brain 

 

yes chiefs struck out at the position. The point is they keep swinging 

[Augie]

22 minutes ago, balln said:

Rashee rice and James worthy 

are better by a good amount than 

Shakir and whoever you want to put as #2

 

again this is a philosophy / roster building post. Bills have been ok / good. Cheifs have been better 

 

James Worthy would be great, if we were having a pickup game of hoops. But Coleman played hoops for Michigan St, so he’s no slouch there! 

[Dr. Who]

11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

James Worthy is a retired LA Laker I believe.  The Chiefs offense is great because they have a first ballot HOF head coach that is great at calling plays, a first ballot HOF QB who is great at executing the offense, and a first ballot HOF TE that has defied coverage schemes for years.  Not because they have great WRs.  
 

Look back at the Chiefs drafts the past few years.  Guys like Skye Moore, Cornell Powell, Mecole Hardman.  Not exactly threats.

Naturally, since they emphasize the position in the draft, they will have both more hits and misses. Beane does a lot of things right. I think he needs to up the ante at WR in his overall drafting strategy. This is a criticism based on his entire tenure, not just this year. The view that he does not value WR enough is not equivalent to the view that he was wrong to prioritize defense in the recent draft. He did well, but the FA and draft focus is typically on D.

 

If Coleman and Kincaid have strong years, and if Palmer is better than mediocre, the urgency will subside. If not, Beane may be making another third round pick midseason trade.

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Naturally, since they emphasize the position in the draft, they will have both more hits and misses. Beane does a lot of things right. I think he needs to up the ante at WR in his overall drafting strategy. This is a criticism based on his entire tenure, not just this year. The view that he does not value WR enough is not equivalent to the view that he was wrong to prioritize defense in the recent draft. He did well, but the FA and draft focus is typically on D.

 

If Coleman and Kincaid have strong years, and if Palmer is better than mediocre, the urgency will subside. If not, Beane may be making another third round pick midseason trade.

I agree with most of this.  Beane tends to use FA and of course the trade for Diggs for the WR position.  My point is simply that it is premature at best to write off a guy in Coleman that has been on the field for less than one full season.