Beane elaborates on the process of picking Josh Allen

[RoscoeParrish]

36 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Really? In the last four years, you say? I only see one, from 15 up to 13. And a few other small moves a bit further back.

 

The last five years, in which the Bills never won less than 11 games, the Bird had one year when they won four games and one year of 9-8. That helps your draft slots.

 

 

15 wasn’t their pick. It was the Dolphins pick they acquired earlier. That’s what I’m saying. Why hold that draft slot against them?

 

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That bit about the Bills and Eagles evening out the further you go back is only if you go back specifically to 2018. The reason Beane  had high picks in 2018 had a lot to do with McDermott trading way back in 2017 to get higher to be able to pick a QB in 2018.

 

So in 2017 the Eagles picked 14th while the Bills picked 27th.

 

And you can't expect Ford to be All-Pro, he was a 2nd rounder. All-Pro would have been a very significant over-performance. Edmunds at 16 got two Pro Bowls, that's meeting expectations. Oliver has been a bit below expectations, but everyone has some of those.

 

The Chiefs did indeed trade up for Mahomes, from 27th to 10th. And the Bills traded up for Allen. Traded up almost as far, from 21st to 7th in two steps. So if you want to give the Chiefs credit for savvy you have to do the same for the Bills.

 

Yes again, you see the point. We had pick 10 in 2017. We traded back for future firsts. That’s why the further you go back, it evens out. More years of picks and it includes our bad years where those higher picks were used to find supposedly the better players that we can’t seem to find at pick 25.

 

I didn’t say anything about expectations about Cody Ford, I just said that if we had turned those 2 years of picking much higher than we do now into an All-Pro or two, Beane’s resume looks much better. 
 

I think it’s dishonest to say “we can’t find difference makers picking so late” while not considering the years we didn’t pick late. 

[Albany,n.y.]

7 hours ago, chris heff said:

Technically yes, Whaley was a lame duck that they kept until after the daft, but McDermott was making all the decisions. Bean was let go by Carolina in 2016, McDermott knew he was bringing Bean on board, do you think they didn’t talk about Hyde and Poyer?

 

5 hours ago, chris heff said:

Bean’s bio says he was with the Panthers from 1998-2016. McDermott was hired in January 2017, he knew he was bringing Bean to the Bills. Whaley was a lame duck they kept until after the draft. Draft ended on April 29, Whaley and his staff were fired on the 30th. Bean was announced as GM nine days later. Don’t you think that since McDermott knew Bean was going to be the GM and Bean knew he was going to be the GM, that they may have talked about free agency and the draft? Or do you think McDermott was relying on Whaley? You may recall that during that time a reporter asked Whaley what exactly his job was?or more precisely “what do you do?”

He was still with Carolina through the 2017 draft:

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

15 wasn’t their pick. It was the Dolphins pick they acquired earlier. That’s what I’m saying. Why hold that draft slot against them?

 

Yes again, you see the point. We had pick 10 in 2017. We traded back for future firsts. That’s why the further you go back, it evens out. More years of picks and it includes our bad years where those higher picks were used to find supposedly the better players that we can’t seem to find at pick 25.

 

I didn’t say anything about expectations about Cody Ford, I just said that if we had turned those 2 years of picking much higher than we do now into an All-Pro or two, Beane’s resume looks much better. 
 

I think it’s dishonest to say “we can’t find difference makers picking so late” while not considering the years we didn’t pick late. 

 

Well, first, people don't say, "We can't find difference makers picking so late." They say, correctly, that it's harder finding difference makers picking so late. It just is.

 

And if you pick late more years, it will be harder in those years. The Bills did pick later more often. And yet they also found difference makers. All Pros aren't the only difference makers, they just aren't. Aaron Johnson is a difference maker. And an All Pro. Matt Milano is a difference maker. And an All Pro. Dion Dawkins is a difference maker. Spencer Brown looks like he's getting there. Christian Benford is a difference maker. Terrell Bernard too. Josh certainly is, kinda goes without saying. Kincaid showed every sign before the injury, but still has a lot more to prove.

 

There's a reason why in every draft ranking the Bills are listed top six or seven for the length of the Beane/McDermott era despite winning more games than nearly anyone else (including Philly with three SBs in that time including two wins) and thus starting with worse picks. They've done quite well.

 

The last three years both have been really good teams. The years before that Philly did much better with getting losses and higher picks during the years when they brought in guys who are now matured pros.

 

The thing Philly has done a lot better is being pretty bad in years when they didn'T make the Super Bowl. Damn them. Very well run franchise. And the Bills are close.

 

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Hyde was a great Safety. Poyer was a coattail riding pile jumper (see him in Miami).  Beane wasn't involved in signing them.

 

Beane gave up a 1st round pick for predictable headache Diggs.  Predictably, the Bills had enough of him and got a 2nd for him at least.  That's better than he did with Elam--a solid bust who, by his 3rd season, McD hardly played him at all.  Beane turned that 1st round pick into a 5th and 7th.  Nice.

 

Shakir is the second best (really, 1 of 2) decent receivers Beane has drafted in 8 years.  Slot receiver though---he was 5th in YAC (receivers only), not 2nd (the Bills as a team were 2nd).  Not sure of the importance of that 1 stat.  

 

Coleman is a WR3 in a room stuffed now with WR3/4s.  Extrapolation is a meaningless exercise.  In the final 2 games of the season he had 17 targets for 5 catches and 58 yards.  In the next 3 playoff games he had a total of 8 targets, 3 catches for 22 yards.  No reason to believe he was going to get 750 yards if he played every regular season game.

 

Is Andy Reid still talking about drafting Mahomes?  Roseman going on about Hurts?--one or both of them have played in 5 of the past 6 SBs

 

 

Power was a terrific safety. Yes, the last half of a year here he was a shell of himself and in Miami he didn't look like he'd recovered a bit. But he was excellent through most of his career here.

 

Diggs was a great pickup. Great. No, things didn't end well. And you can certainly argue the extension near the end. But he helped Josh become Josh Allen.

 

Elam was a bad pick. It's not like other teams don't screw up sometimes. They do. Every single one of them does. 

 

Yes, Reid still talks about Mahomes, when he's asked about it. And yes, Roseman goes on about Hurts when he's asked about it. Beane was asked.#3, fine. But the fact is that he was playing like a lower-level #2 -- as a rookie -- until the injury. And yes he had some drops late. Think the wrist injury might have had something to do with  that?

 

He might easily have gotten 750 if he'd played without an injured wrist. No way to say for sure, but in the first 8 games he put up 396 yards. And in the last games before the injury on Nov. 3rd he'd averaged 64 yards a game, We don't really know what he'll be but there's a pretty decent chance he'll be quite good indeed.

[RoscoeParrish]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Aaron Johnson is a difference maker. And an All Pro

Not sure who this player is. Maybe Taron Johnson?

 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Matt Milano is a difference maker. And an All Pro

Not drafted by Beane.

 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Dion Dawkins is a difference maker

Not drafted by Beane.

 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Spencer Brown looks like he's getting there. Christian Benford is a difference maker. Terrell Bernard too

These guys are all drafted by Beane.

 

The conversation was about comparing Beane’s drafting to other teams. That’s why we started in 2018.

 

I think Beane is a very good GM, personally. I think, again, if you stack up his resume against the Niners, Chiefs or Eagles (basically all the teams to play in multiple Superbowls since he’s been here), he’s closer to the bottom of that grouping instead of the top.

[GaryPinC]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

That's not enough for the 99.9% of inaccurate QB's coming from College. All the work in the world doesn't fix that. You think guys like Lance and the many, many big arm athletic QB's who were inaccurate simply didn't work hard enough?

 

There's a reason Richardson is training with Josh Allen this offseason. He's done something that no one else has ever done. And for anyone else not named Josh Allen, what he can show them most likely won't matter.

Back in 2019 or 20, Darnold was training with Jordan Palmer and Allen.  I remember an article where a source discussed the difference between Darnold and Allen.  Darnold would repeat a drill several times and move on.  Allen would repeat a drill as many times as needed until he mastered it.

 

Allen's base and throwing posture also changed significantly on the field.

 

I'm sure a number of the big-armed inaccurate QB's simply didn't work as hard as Josh Allen at it.  Saying a QB does offseason work doesn't speak to the quality of it.

[CarolinaBillsFan]

Eisen said "I can confirm, it worked".  Love it!!

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, chris heff said:

George Allen almost did.

 

Diggs was worth the gamble, Bills could have not traded and picked WR Jalen Reagor in the 2020 draft, like the aforementioned Howie Roseman did.

Extrapolation is a form of prediction, kind of like drafts.

 

Reid and Roseman didn’t have two podcasters, that both wanted the Bills to draft Josh Rosen again questioning Beane and his staff. I knew nothing about Josh Allen, but I was pretty sure Rosen was a bum, I wanted to Jackson.

 

Which QB did you want in that draft?

 

 

George Allen was a HC, not GM.

 

Not sure what the Reagor comment means--a dig a a bad pick? That pick really slowed them down, lol.  2020 Bills draft brought Epenesa/Moss/Davis/Fromm/Hodgins/Bass.  the only "keepers" (as it were) were Epenesa and Bass.  Roseman's Eagles would go to 2 SBs after that draft.  The Bills would be bounced by the Chiefs 4 of the next 5 years.....

 

Drafts are generally very poor forms of prediction, thanks for confirming my point.

 

I don't know who the Philly podcaster would be or if Roseman even talks to such.   The Beane interview was with Rich Eisen, not some local yokels, questioning Beane.

 

I thought Allen was a risky pick because he didn't play much high level college ball.  He was raw and seemed pretty poorly coached at Wyoming. Lots of bad habit left uncorrected.  I liked him better than the predictable disaster that was Manuel a few years before.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Power was a terrific safety. Yes, the last half of a year here he was a shell of himself and in Miami he didn't look like he'd recovered a bit. But he was excellent through most of his career here.

 

Diggs was a great pickup. Great. No, things didn't end well. And you can certainly argue the extension near the end. But he helped Josh become Josh Allen.

 

Elam was a bad pick. It's not like other teams don't screw up sometimes. They do. Every single one of them does. 

 

Yes, Reid still talks about Mahomes, when he's asked about it. And yes, Roseman goes on about Hurts when he's asked about it. Beane was asked.#3, fine. But the fact is that he was playing like a lower-level #2 -- as a rookie -- until the injury. And yes he had some drops late. Think the wrist injury might have had something to do with  that?

 

He might easily have gotten 750 if he'd played without an injured wrist. No way to say for sure, but in the first 8 games he put up 396 yards. And in the last games before the injury on Nov. 3rd he'd averaged 64 yards a game, We don't really know what he'll be but there's a pretty decent chance he'll be quite good indeed.

 

 

Diggs by the end had totally messed up Josh.  Forcing him throws just to shut him the F up.  This was all predictable. Josh made Diggs--not the other way around.  

 

Again, players get injured--that's why extrapolation is a completely meaningless exercise.  Coleman had a decent first half of the season--although nearly 1/3 of his 8 game output came in 1 game.  Take out that clear outlier and you get a more accurate picture of what he did.