Dalton Kincaid Still Skinny

[BigDingus]

Most of the issues can be cleaned up by Kincaid getting better/stronger, but some of it is on Josh. He's got a cannon for an arm, but he just hasn't been good on deeper passes for quite a while now. He had one season where he had above average success on catchable passes downfield, but not so much recently.

 

This guy posted videos compiling all passes of 20+ yards from a clean pocket of many QBs, and you start to see Josh just does not have the touch, timing or accuracy for a lot of these throws. Sometimes we were successful, and sometimes it was the WRs fault (or just a great defensive play), but more often than not, our targets just aren't getting good enough passes thrown to them.

 

But again, Kincaid has bigger issues than JUST passes of 20+ yards. @HappyDays pretty much nailed it describing the miscues. And I wholeheartedly agree about Kincaid needing to be able to come down with difficult catches more often. Not every pass is going to be perfect, but a top-tier TE needs to be able to make those plays in order to be successful (but in this video, you'll notice how good Cooper was at catching those kinds of passes in tight traffic).

Edited 5 hours ago by BigDingus

[Doc Brown]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean that's a hyper-specific stat with a very low sample size across the NFL. Like what am I supposed to take away from that? It doesn't eliminate the year he had which was indeed bad. Below 60% catch rate, low ADOT, 34.5 YPG, 6 yards per target. All that with the NFL MVP throwing him the ball and no elite pass catchers taking targets away. There's no dressing up those numbers. It was bad.

 

The narrative du jour amongst Bills fans is "high uncatchable target rate." Okay... What does that mean? Why are the passes uncatchable? Why is Kincaid the only target Allen has had with that problem? I think there's a lot of blind hope masquerading as analysis.

I'd like to see how many of his targets are throwaways compared to other targets.  This may have been brought up before in this thread but I'm trying to make sense of the low catch rate and him receiving a receiving grade of 76.0 on PFF which ranks him 8th among 72 TE's.  You'd think it would be much lower and I'm wondering if they look at times where he was open and Josh didn't throw it to him.  Or if they excluded plays they deemed as throwaways. 

[Buffalo716]

19 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Most of the issues can be cleaned up by Kincaid getting better/stronger, but some of it is on Josh. He's got a cannon for an arm, but he just hasn't been good on deeper passes for quite a while now. He had one season where he had above average success on catchable passes downfield, but not so much recently.

 

This guy posted videos compiling all passes of 20+ yards from a clean pocket of many QBs, and you start to see Josh just does not have the touch, timing or accuracy for a lot of these throws. Sometimes we were successful, and sometimes it was the WRs fault (or just a great defensive play), but more often than not, our targets just aren't getting good enough passes thrown to them.

 

But again, Kincaid has bigger issues than JUST passes of 20+ yards. @HappyDays pretty much nailed it describing the miscues. And I wholeheartedly agree about Kincaid needing to be able to come down with difficult catches more often. Not every pass is going to be perfect, but a top-tier TE needs to be able to make those plays in order to be successful (but in this video, you'll notice how good Cooper was at catching those kinds of passes in tight traffic).

He' was in year 2 and playing dinged up... If he doesn't take a jump this year it's a valid concern 

 

He runs longer routes than the majority of tight ends .. and he gets more yac than the majority of tight ends 

 

You can build consistency... Guys like gronkowski were playing football since they were six 

 

He's been playing since he was 18.. he still has a lot of room to grow

Edited 5 hours ago by Buffalo716

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Or he's been double bracketed as a rookie which takes time to learn how to play through bracket coverage 

 

Watch the videos I posted above. He isn't getting bracketed on those routes... Come on man. He drifts on routes, he runs past zone windows or stops running before the window, he doesn't make any difficult catches. He looks like someone that is completely overwhelmed by the speed of the NFL. My take is that after two years it's unlikely he's going to suddenly adjust to pro speed. Some players just don't have the instincts and the processing ability. I really hope I'm wrong though.

 

FWIW I was a huge fan of his coming out, he was my draft crush that year and I was psyched when he fell to us. I believe in that year's draft thread I posted "Allen just got his Travis Kelce." But I have to abandon his college profile and be honest about what I'm seeing on the NFL tape. He has a lot to put together for him to even come close to being worth his draft slot.

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He runs longer routes than the majority of tight ends

 

I don't know how you can say that when his own teammate Knox had a higher ADOT than him... And I don't have concrete statistics on this, but my perception was that in the back half of the season Kincaid's ADOT went down while Knox's went up, indicating that the team felt Knox was more effective on those throws and Kincaid's role needed to be simplified. I just don't think he has the nuances of NFL route running. It's one thing to have good footwork and hip flexion which to my eyes Kincaid has, but route running also requires an innate understanding of coverage spacing and leverage. That's where he has fallen way behind and it explains his low catch percentage IMO.

 

Edited 5 hours ago by HappyDays

[Buffalo716]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Watch the videos I posted above. He isn't getting bracketed on those routes... Come on man. He drifts on routes, he runs past zone windows or stops running before the window, he doesn't make any difficult catches. He looks like someone that is completely overwhelmed by the speed of the NFL. My take is that after two years it's unlikely he's going to suddenly adjust to pro speed. Some players just don't have the instincts and the processing ability. I really hope I'm wrong though.

 

FWIW I was a huge fan of his coming out, he was my draft crush that year and I was psyched when he fell to us. I believe in that year's draft thread I posted "Allen just got his Travis Kelce." But I have to abandon his college profile and be honest about what I'm seeing on the NFL tape. He has a lot to put together for him to even come close to being worth his draft slot.

You certainly did not post a clip of him running 255 routes 

 

You can 20 routes of any player and make them not look that great and that's true 

 

Randy Moss has 20 routes a year where he doesn't look great and so did Terrell Owens 

 

I'm not saying he's an All-Pro , I'm saying without watching all 255 routes you don't get a full view 

 

He also was playing banged up all season and was 7th in the NFL for average depth of target

 

And he certainly was heavily paid attention to since his rookie year.. he was getting bracketed as a rookie at points.. and certainly was bracketed last year at points as well

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know how you can say that when his own teammate Knox had a higher ADOT than him... And I don't have concrete statistics on this, but my perception was that in the back half of the season Kincaid's ADOT went down while Knox's went up, indicating that the team felt Knox was more effective on those throws and Kincaid's role needed to be simplified. I just don't think he has the nuances of NFL route running. It's one thing to have good footwork and hip flexion which to my eyes Kincaid has, but route running also requires an innate understanding of coverage spacing and leverage. That's where he has fallen way behind and it explains his low catch percentage IMO.

 

Knox didn't even qualify though 

 

And Knox is also a good tight end.. but there's plenty of players who put up good stats but they don't even qualify

 

There was 50 plus tight ends who qualified and Kincaid was seventh .. he was also third for average yards after catch

 

That's not poor.. he can improve from that

 

His understanding of zone coverage will come with more repetition ...  he only started playing football as a senior in high school.. Utah and San Diego was all on his talent not football IQ

 

He's learning coverage schemes on the fly... Of course he's not a savant maneuvering zone coverage yet

 

He hasn't even reached his physical and mental peek ... His football IQ has to catch up to his athleticism 

 

But I think with him that's not something I'm worrying about.. I'm willing to give him this year before I get concerned

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Buffalo716

[RoscoeParrish]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

He' was in year 2 and playing dinged up... If he doesn't take a jump this year it's a valid concern 

 

He runs longer routes than the majority of tight ends .. and he gets more yac than the majority of tight ends 

 

You can build consistency... Guys like gronkowski were playing football since they were six 

 

He's been playing since he was 18.. he still has a lot of room to grow

As a Kincaid fan, if he doesn’t take a jump this year, it’s not time to be concerned, it’s time to admit he’s sadly a bust. 

[Richard Noggin]

4 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Will it be pistols at ten paces / Or comedic insults with a keyboard ?

 

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Most of the issues can be cleaned up by Kincaid getting better/stronger, but some of it is on Josh. He's got a cannon for an arm, but he just hasn't been good on deeper passes for quite a while now. He had one season where he had above average success on catchable passes downfield, but not so much recently.

 

This guy posted videos compiling all passes of 20+ yards from a clean pocket of many QBs, and you start to see Josh just does not have the touch, timing or accuracy for a lot of these throws. Sometimes we were successful, and sometimes it was the WRs fault (or just a great defensive play), but more often than not, our targets just aren't getting good enough passes thrown to them.

 

But again, Kincaid has bigger issues than JUST passes of 20+ yards. @HappyDays pretty much nailed it describing the miscues. And I wholeheartedly agree about Kincaid needing to be able to come down with difficult catches more often. Not every pass is going to be perfect, but a top-tier TE needs to be able to make those plays in order to be successful (but in this video, you'll notice how good Cooper was at catching those kinds of passes in tight traffic).

If I'm a defensive coordinator vs Buffalo I would give up more real estate in the 10 yard+ range in the middle of the field. We don't run seam passes to our TE's. We don't seem to run a lot post patterns . Just an area of the field we don't really take advantage of. I think most TE's like that real estate. But all our downfield passes seem to go outside the hashes.