Doc Brown Posted May 31 Posted May 31 2 hours ago, NoSaint said: ultimately, it’s a matter of 10 being ceiling vs floor. if he’s a guy that kicks around as average to slightly above - that’s not a particularly great spot to invest heavily if he’s an elite TE that even when beat up is in the top third/quarter of the league - whole different story there’s a real turn at say TE8-10ish where you tip from difference makers to the next 20 being practically interchangeable My fear is he pulls a Wyatt Teller of the 1st round on us. The talent is so obvious watching him play. 38 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: Does this mean he's trucking people to accomplish that or being schemed open? I don't have the answer, but just calling his YAC out isn't the answer either. He's not schemed open. Not sure if Brady's even capable of that. It's the fluidity of his routes that account for his above average YAC as he's already turning up field when catching it. 2 Quote
NoSaint Posted May 31 Posted May 31 49 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: My fear is he pulls a Wyatt Teller of the 1st round on us. The talent is so obvious watching him play. He's not schemed open. Not sure if Brady's even capable of that. It's the fluidity of his routes that account for his above average YAC as he's already turning up field when catching it. oh he’s definitely shown the flashes and we have plenty of time with him in the building the problem is each year we burn waiting just hurts the odds for the overall team. whether we like to say it…. Him not being the dude last year could quite literally be a missed Super Bowl for the team. hopefully he comes back as a reason we do make it. 1 1 Quote
oldmanfan Posted May 31 Posted May 31 12 minutes ago, NoSaint said: oh he’s definitely shown the flashes and we have plenty of time with him in the building the problem is each year we burn waiting just hurts the odds for the overall team. whether we like to say it…. Him not being the dude last year could quite literally be a missed Super Bowl for the team. hopefully he comes back as a reason we do make it. Whether we like to say it or not he was trying to gut it through two bad knees. Whether we like it or not it was a brilliant call by Spags. Whether we like it or not, McD challenged him to get stronger and he spent off-season both rehabbing his knee and working with their folks on a strength program. Whether we like it or not guys like Dawkins who are much closer to the situation say he’ll kill it this year. And whether we like it or not Bills fans have had a predilection to pick out players to vilify for some odd reason, from Richie Lucas through to Dalton/Bishop/Coleman today. 1 1 Quote
Doc Brown Posted May 31 Posted May 31 15 minutes ago, NoSaint said: oh he’s definitely shown the flashes and we have plenty of time with him in the building the problem is each year we burn waiting just hurts the odds for the overall team. whether we like to say it…. Him not being the dude last year could quite literally be a missed Super Bowl for the team. hopefully he comes back as a reason we do make it. I know the Bills love Knox but he might be getting in the way. Look at these splits. Knox only had 311 yards in 16 games last year. The silver lining is if Knox is released next off-season they can give Kincaid one more chance before he's able to hit free agency. Metric Kincaid Knox PFF Grade 76.6 57.1 Route Particiaption 57.7% 48.3% Target Share 18.1% 6.4% TPRR 0.28 0.12 YPRR 1.76 1.18 YAC/Rec 6.36 4.55 YACO/Rec 2.61 1.50 MTF/Rec 0.180 0 First Down/RR 0.091 0.046 FP/G 7.8 3.7 XFP/G 9.9 3.3 XFP/RR 0.51 0.20 1 Quote
Mikie2times Posted May 31 Posted May 31 18 hours ago, Doc Brown said: My fear is he pulls a Wyatt Teller of the 1st round on us. The talent is so obvious watching him play. He's not schemed open. Not sure if Brady's even capable of that. It's the fluidity of his routes that account for his above average YAC as he's already turning up field when catching it. Allen averaged 6.5 YAC per completion last year. His next closest since 2020 was the year prior at 5.1 and after that no season over 5.0. Shakir was #1 in the NFL at 100 targets or more. We run a ton of screens that are basically extensions of the run game. Outside of Shakir, Kinkaid is participating the most in those concepts. So while Kincaid is good at turning upfield after the catch he also doesn't have a lot of lower YAC outcomes in his sample. Very few jump balls/contested catches or comeback routes which yield low YAC. He's always in motion when he catches the ball. All of this is a large result of Brady's offense and scheme. We saw none of this with prior OC's and were consistently one of the worst in the NFL in YAC leaning more into total air yards per attempt. 1 Quote
Doc Brown Posted May 31 Posted May 31 2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: Allen averaged 6.5 YAC per completion last year. His next closest since 2020 was the year prior at 5.1 and after that no season over 5.0. Shakir was #1 in the NFL at 100 targets or more. We run a ton of screens that are basically extensions of the run game. Outside of Shakir, Kinkaid is participating the most in those concepts. So while Kincaid is good at turning upfield after the catch he also doesn't have a lot of lower YAC outcomes in his sample. Very few jump balls/contested catches or comeback routes which yield low YAC. He's always in motion when he catches the ball. All of this is a large result of Brady's offense and scheme. We saw none of this with prior OC's and were consistently one of the worst in the NFL in YAC leaning more into total air yards per attempt. True and the reason 2020 sticks out is because teams weren't playing as much two high safeties as they are now. Plus, that was probably the best four WR's we've ever had in a season. Brady's offense is more of a run heavy matriculate the ball down the field type offense to combat that cover 2 shell coverage and screens are a big part of it. I get your point that his YAC is enhanced because he did receive the most screens behind only Shakir. That's why I find yards after contact per attempt also useful. Compared to a top 10 paid TE in the league in Knox, Kincaid averaged 2.61 yards after contact while Knox only averaged 1.5. Only George Kittle had more yards after contact than Kincaid as far as qualifying TE's go last year. Although, even then you had to figure a reason for that is he had more of a running start because of the number of quick screens he caught. I want to see the Bills attack the intermediate area of the field this year. I'm not sure if defenses didn't have enough respect for our outside WR's or it's a deficiency in Brady's play calling/scheme. I guess my overall point is last year was pry Kincaid's floor as a TE could be given his strengths at the position. I'd be shocked if it wasn't a rebound year for him. 1 1 Quote
Buffalo716 Posted May 31 Posted May 31 19 hours ago, Doc Brown said: My fear is he pulls a Wyatt Teller of the 1st round on us. The talent is so obvious watching him play. He's not schemed open. Not sure if Brady's even capable of that. It's the fluidity of his routes that account for his above average YAC as he's already turning up field when catching it. Teller showed zero signs of being an All-Pro in Buffalo He couldn't definitively beat out journeyman guards... And didn't fit the running scheme we were going with and struggled in pass blocking technique He's the case of all NFL players have a lot of talent and he went to the perfect situation that let him blossom I think Kincaid has shown way more than teller did in Buffalo 1 1 Quote
Doc Brown Posted May 31 Posted May 31 6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: Teller showed zero signs of being an All-Pro in Buffalo He couldn't definitively beat out journeyman guards... And didn't fit the running scheme we were going with and struggled in pass blocking technique He's the case of all NFL players have a lot of talent and he went to the perfect situation that let him blossom I think Kincaid has shown way more than teller did in Buffalo It was just an example of us giving up too early on a prospect. You're right in saying it isn't an apples to apples comparison. 2 Quote
Buffalo716 Posted May 31 Posted May 31 12 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: It was just an example of us giving up too early on a prospect. You're right in saying it isn't an apples to apples comparison. I think Kincaid still has lots of room to grow so I agree he is someone I'm not just giving away 2 Quote
dayman Posted June 1 Posted June 1 He could be bigger but I’m pretty sure a PCL tear isn’t something you lift your way out of … ***** happens he’ll be great we’ve all seen him move it’s no joke you can tell he’s different 2 Quote
3rdand12 Posted June 1 Posted June 1 23 hours ago, NoSaint said: oh he’s definitely shown the flashes and we have plenty of time with him in the building the problem is each year we burn waiting just hurts the odds for the overall team. whether we like to say it…. Him not being the dude last year could quite literally be a missed Super Bowl for the team. hopefully he comes back as a reason we do make it. He still sounds banged up and working through it last quote i read from him. Lots of injuries most of the season and fair to assume def might have been looking for him aggressively after his first year on tape But, he must have been a wreck last season as i read it. Still not 100% Offense was likely depending on that skill set and had to pivot away from him hoping he can get back to and exceed his rook year Quote
NoSaint Posted June 1 Posted June 1 On 5/30/2025 at 8:54 PM, oldmanfan said: Whether we like to say it or not he was trying to gut it through two bad knees. Whether we like it or not it was a brilliant call by Spags. Whether we like it or not, McD challenged him to get stronger and he spent off-season both rehabbing his knee and working with their folks on a strength program. Whether we like it or not guys like Dawkins who are much closer to the situation say he’ll kill it this year. And whether we like it or not Bills fans have had a predilection to pick out players to vilify for some odd reason, from Richie Lucas through to Dalton/Bishop/Coleman today. I think he’s been a fine enough nfl tight end and may get to the next level. It’s hardly vilifying him to say he belongs as a starter in the league but he hasn’t separated him from the pack in the second tier of tight ends and that hurt us last year. Hopefully it doesn’t repeat. Quote
Don Otreply Posted June 1 Posted June 1 The doubt and trepidation in this thread is top shelf, worry worry worry, now where was I, ah yes, 🍸🚬 Quote
Captain_Quint Posted July 7 Posted July 7 Man, looks like Dalton lost more weight and now is being investigated for drugs too. Ugh! The season can't get here soon enough to keep these kids out of trouble. 7 Quote
LLCoolCy Posted July 7 Posted July 7 Interesting deep dive by a fantasy analyst. We knew the Allen to Kincaid connection was off last year but this bad is eye opening. Just due to natural regression we should see a marked improvement. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted July 7 Posted July 7 On 5/31/2025 at 11:12 PM, NoSaint said: I think he’s been a fine enough nfl tight end and may get to the next level. It’s hardly vilifying him to say he belongs as a starter in the league but he hasn’t separated him from the pack in the second tier of tight ends and that hurt us last year. Hopefully it doesn’t repeat. Again, the big issue with Dalton Kincaid was just that he was HORRENDOUS in the playoffs. Yeah he hasn't played up to expectations but his regular season play was pretty innocuous. They barely needed him in the regular season. I keep hearing the sob stories about his knee injuries.......well he must have been playing with two sprained hands in the playoffs because the issue wasn't his running it was that he couldn't catch the damn ball. 1 Quote
Not at the table Karlos Posted July 7 Posted July 7 Met him today. I was one of the people that said he needs to gain weight. He def looked bigger than he was last year. 1 4 Quote
DCofNC Posted July 7 Posted July 7 On 5/31/2025 at 4:00 PM, Doc Brown said: True and the reason 2020 sticks out is because teams weren't playing as much two high safeties as they are now. Plus, that was probably the best four WR's we've ever had in a season. Brady's offense is more of a run heavy matriculate the ball down the field type offense to combat that cover 2 shell coverage and screens are a big part of it. I get your point that his YAC is enhanced because he did receive the most screens behind only Shakir. That's why I find yards after contact per attempt also useful. Compared to a top 10 paid TE in the league in Knox, Kincaid averaged 2.61 yards after contact while Knox only averaged 1.5. Only George Kittle had more yards after contact than Kincaid as far as qualifying TE's go last year. Although, even then you had to figure a reason for that is he had more of a running start because of the number of quick screens he caught. I want to see the Bills attack the intermediate area of the field this year. I'm not sure if defenses didn't have enough respect for our outside WR's or it's a deficiency in Brady's play calling/scheme. I guess my overall point is last year was pry Kincaid's floor as a TE could be given his strengths at the position. I'd be shocked if it wasn't a rebound year for him. It was a bad year for a guy of his capabilities, I have to believe it was mostly injury related, but some of it is just plain underperforming. I know if you aren’t 100% neither is your focus, so I’ll give him a pass, but watching that 4th down drop more is just painful. Kelce makes that play 99% of the time, maybe Kincaid does too and that’s the 1%. I don’t know for sure, but I know that was every bit as costly of a drop as Andrews’ in the end zone. After his rookie year, the bar was set pretty high and he rolled under it last season. Hopefully, he’s back healthy, the OC can recognize talent and he gets REAL targets. I’d like to see him and Shakir torture teams over the middle and open up things on the outside for Palmer and Coleman. I think we have the guys to run a very similar offense to the Patriots’ glory days, with an added dimension of JA17 taking off as he sees fit. Is Brady good enough to scheme that? We shall see. 1 Quote
Don Otreply Posted July 8 Posted July 8 On 5/30/2025 at 9:54 PM, oldmanfan said: Whether we like to say it or not he was trying to gut it through two bad knees. Whether we like it or not it was a brilliant call by Spags. Whether we like it or not, McD challenged him to get stronger and he spent off-season both rehabbing his knee and working with their folks on a strength program. Whether we like it or not guys like Dawkins who are much closer to the situation say he’ll kill it this year. And whether we like it or not Bills fans have had a predilection to pick out players to vilify for some odd reason, from Richie Lucas through to Dalton/Bishop/Coleman today. Yeah, but he’s still skinny… 🤣 Quote
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