Dalton Kincaid Still Skinny

[appoo]

10 hours ago, Pete said:

^ Cover 1 episode last night was “Is Dalton Kincaid a bust?”

 

Anthony and his guest say he is not yet a bust- spoiler alert.

 

Kincaid - Anthony gives him a 4 or 5 on scale 1-10 as a blocker- more of an obstruction, but willing.

 

many key drops, despite having good hands.

 

Bills scheduled passing game struggled last year.  Little WR separation.  Josh would go off schedule, and make a play.  Offense still missing X WR

 

PCL sprain was week 10.

 

Kyle Duggar eats Daltons lunch.

 

Anthony says Dalton is not a bust.  That he has a great feel for zones.

 

He says to judge a draft pick, you must give two years to evaluate.  So write off last season, and see if Dalton can build upon rookie season.

 

I don’t hate Dalton or Keon.  I always root for them.  I’m disappointed in both.  But I most definitely would rather be wrong, and have both excel for the Bills.

Keon's advanced metrics are actually fairly good. 

 

I'm on the fence with Kincaid - not because of his size - but because I thought he'd be a bit more explosive in and out of his routes

[appoo]

One thing I'll say about Kincaid and the offense is that I think the brain trust was more grounded on offense this past season to protect the defense.

 

Buffalo had the 7th least passing attempts, 9th most rushing attempts.  They had the 18th most passing 1st downs, and 6th most rushing 1st downs. 

 

They actually have explosive passing metrics (YPR, number of big plays, etc) but I think many of those were sort of manufactured from Josh being Josh.

 

This year, with a significantly more talented DLine and secondary, healthy Milano, I think the Bills are gonna more risk friendly on offense, and thay should help the numbers of folks like Kincaid

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, Pete said:

Sure, Josh says he needs to be better for Kincaid.  In some ways there is truth, but I believe he’s protecting Dalton.  Why is Dalton the outlier on Bills WR catch rate?  Is Dalton getting to his landmarks on time?  Is he getting delayed by a jam?  Did he get deep enough when he sets up in a zone?  

These are all great questions and part of the current Kincaid enigma?  I really didn't expect Josh to have chemistry issues with Dalton 2 years in. I think Dalton's flaws are a reflection of our entire receiving corp. We're not getting enough separation on questionable routes. Regardless, year 3 will be the most important in Kincaid's career.

[Beck Water]

On 5/6/2025 at 11:56 AM, gjv said:

I've gotten the impression that Kincaid plays more like a large wide-out than a tight-end. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

 

If he wants to play like a WR then he needs to work on his freakin' release moves because he can't release like a WR

[appoo]

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

These are all great questions and part of the current Kincaid enigma?  I really didn't expect Josh to have chemistry issues with Dalton 2 years in. I think Dalton's flaws are a reflection of our entire receiving corp. We're not getting enough separation on questionable routes. Regardless, year 3 will be the most important in Kincaid's career.

Eh seperation is a bit different in the NFL than college. It's more about giving a QB windows. You don't see all that much seperation in this league

[Pete]

5 minutes ago, appoo said:

Eh seperation is a bit different in the NFL than college. It's more about giving a QB windows. You don't see all that much seperation in this league

I agree somewhat.  We’ve also witnessed many mediocre TEs get separation against the Bills,  most every game 

[oldmanfan]

32 minutes ago, Pete said:

I agree somewhat.  We’ve also witnessed many mediocre TEs get separation against the Bills,  most every game 

Of course they do

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

2023 counts.

 

80% catch rate (58% in 24).

311 YAC (274 in '24)

4.4% drop rate (8% in '24)

 

When targeted, Kincaid's catchable pass rate was in the 30's, but his open rate was high. 
 

He needs to stay healthy and get on the same page as Allen. His 2024 wasn't as good as we all hoped, but he did plenty of good things and his profile as a whole is still promising. 

 

 

Outside of all the stats and advance metrics, I'm just not seeing Kincaid as a dangerous weapon in our passing game.

Hopefully that changes.  But as of right now...

 

He hasn't been a threat in the red zone. 

He hasn't been a threat downfield.

He hasn't been a reliable target on third down.  

He hasn't been a producer of YAC on short passes.

 

Ignore his drops.  Give him a pass because of the injury.  Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable.

I'm still not seeing a guy that puts fear into the opposing defense.

 

Even if he's not on a Pro Bowl level, Dawson Knox has proven to be superior in all of the above areas.  Even though he's had some drop problems himself, Knox has also made some spectacular catches.  He's a decent red zone threat, and can make plays downfield.  And he's shown the ability to run people over to get extra yards after the catch.  Kincaid has shown virtually nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick.

 

[balln]

38 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Outside of all the stats and advance metrics, I'm just not seeing Kincaid as a dangerous weapon in our passing game.

Hopefully that changes.  But as of right now...

 

He hasn't been a threat in the red zone. 

He hasn't been a threat downfield.

He hasn't been a reliable target on third down.  

He hasn't been a producer of YAC on short passes.

 

Ignore his drops.  Give him a pass because of the injury.  Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable.

I'm still not seeing a guy that puts fear into the opposing defense.

 

Even if he's not on a Pro Bowl level, Dawson Knox has proven to be superior in all of the above areas.  Even though he's had some drop problems himself, Knox has also made some spectacular catches.  He's a decent red zone threat, and can make plays downfield.  And he's shown the ability to run people over to get extra yards after the catch.  Kincaid has shown virtually nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick.

 

Yea disagree a lot. Has he been Kelce? No. That was my hope 

 

but he’s good. They hit him deep on long developing over routes. Takes time and everything sort of has to work for it to go right. I believe ten game he had 2 of those. The intermediate / deep middle is non existent in our O. Part is how D played us. We don’t have any alphas on outside. And I really don’t think Josh likes throwing and threading needles on seam balls 

 

pit playoff game td was the only exception to above 

 

he has great yac #s believe it or not

 

he’s a bigger Cole Beasley. Hes possession guy. Button and stick routes. Quick turn around and get upfield. 
 

and your red zone point is valid. But come on - read the room. Our O philosophy changed massively last year. We’re gonna pound the rock or Josh is gonna run it in. Basically gonna take Kincaid off the field everytime

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

Outside of all the stats and advance metrics, I'm just not seeing Kincaid as a dangerous weapon in our passing game.

Hopefully that changes.  But as of right now...

 

He hasn't been a threat in the red zone. 

He hasn't been a threat downfield.

He hasn't been a reliable target on third down.  

He hasn't been a producer of YAC on short passes.

 

Ignore his drops.  Give him a pass because of the injury.  Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable.

I'm still not seeing a guy that puts fear into the opposing defense.

 

Even if he's not on a Pro Bowl level, Dawson Knox has proven to be superior in all of the above areas.  Even though he's had some drop problems himself, Knox has also made some spectacular catches.  He's a decent red zone threat, and can make plays downfield.  And he's shown the ability to run people over to get extra yards after the catch.  Kincaid has shown virtually nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick.

 

Film watchers routinely say defenses pay lots of attention to Kincaid. 
 

In terms of "we can find TEs in round 2-3 who have put up better numbers", the only guys who are off to a better start and drafted in rounds 1-3 the last two years are Brock Bowers (1-13) and Sam Laporta (2-2). 
 

I won’t comb through all 29 TEs drafted in 2023 and 2024, but no names really jump out. Even the big names in this MB the last few years. 

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, appoo said:

Eh seperation is a bit different in the NFL than college. It's more about giving a QB windows. You don't see all that much seperation in this league

See : Cole Beasely ( Sp )

Edited Wednesday at 09:24 PM by 3rdand12

[TheyCallMeAndy]

6 hours ago, Pete said:

So he can make it through a season healthy.  Not to mention, I can’t recall Dalton breaking thru a tackle.  It seems the first guy hits Dalton and he goes down.  So added muscle would help him break tackles 

Cover 1 says the opposite 

[Pete]

9 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Cover 1 says the opposite 

Of what?  That Dalton can break a tackle?  Link please

 

imo Dalton can stay at weight, get leaner, thicker, and faster 

Edited yesterday at 08:55 AM by Pete

[Pete]

16 hours ago, appoo said:

Keon's advanced metrics are actually fairly good. 

 

I'm on the fence with Kincaid - not because of his size - but because I thought he'd be a bit more explosive in and out of his routes

Please post Kincaids advanced metrics that show he’s good

 

[Gigs]

Man, y'all are jealous of a kid 🤣 🤣 🤣 

[Pete]

On 5/14/2025 at 4:47 PM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Film watchers routinely say defenses pay lots of attention to Kincaid. 
 

In terms of "we can find TEs in round 2-3 who have put up better numbers", the only guys who are off to a better start and drafted in rounds 1-3 the last two years are Brock Bowers (1-13) and Sam Laporta (2-2). 
 

 

I’ve heard Joe Marino say that Dalton draws attention.  A large reason IMO is the lack of an X WR.  Give Josh a speedy X WR, and attention then goes to X, not Dalton.  In turn, the middle opens up, enabling Dalton success.

 

Trey McBride is a stud TE, drafted in the 2nd round in 2022.

 

Loveland and Warren are going to be beast NFL TEs.

[Buffalo716]

13 hours ago, Pete said:

Please post Kincaids advanced metrics that show he’s good

 

He had a good amount that I posted and I'm not the person you were talking to though 

 

People say we don't use him correctly.. but I don't think people understand how modern tight ends are used ... They say he only runs check Downs 

 

But he was 2nd in deep targets on the season 

 

Top 8 in yards per route ran

 

3rd in yards after catch per reception

 

And he played hurt so you can expect more

[boyst]

On 5/14/2025 at 2:19 PM, Beck Water said:

 

If he wants to play like a WR then he needs to work on his freakin' release moves because he can't release like a WR

This is the biggest part of it. Folks claiming he's just an extra WR ignore his lacking skillset as a TE. Can't block (or doesn't), poor seam cutting routes, doesn't excel at finding open spaces in zone, does not breakaway or release from man coverage.

 

If he was a pure WR he would not have gone first round. Maybe 3rd.

[oldmanfan]

14 hours ago, Pete said:

Please post Kincaids advanced metrics that show he’s good

 

Above you said mediocre TEs do well against the Bills.  A subjective opinion.  But when it comes to Kincaid and someone offers a subjective opinion you demand data.  Can you explain why?

[streetkings01]

Seems like every season we find a whipping boy around here…..for 2025 it’s Kincaid.