Elijah Moore Visiting the Bills today (Update: Signed!)

[JESSEFEFFER]

There has always been a debate about the nature vs. nurture as to what a person ever becomes.  As applied to the NFL, is it more on the culture and coaching of the franchise you play for or is it on the what the player brings to the table that defines their career.  If the Bills like him in 2021, there may be something more to gain from his talent here vs. for the Jets and Browns.

[MrEpsYtown]

2 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I wonder how Elijah Moore and Dawson Knox get along.  They over- lapped for one year at Ole Miss.  I always like when a new guy has connections on the team, it helps them get in the rhythm quicker.

 

Moore and Josh Palmer were St. Thomas Aquinas HS teammates in Florida during the 2016-2017 season. So that is another connection on the squad. 

Edited 4 hours ago by MrEpsYtown

[HappyDays]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

The Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl because of their two elite wide receivers. Their defense shut down the Chiefs.

 

I would say it was both. The Chiefs have fallen behind by at least 10 points in every single Super Bowl they've played in, and in all but two their offense eventually found its groove and completed the comeback. But Philly's elite WRs allowed them to build a lead that was insurmountable so by the time KC started moving the ball it was too late. That 2nd half deep TD to Devonta Smith was the dagger that ended any chance of a comeback. Tampa Bay also had an elite WR corps when they beat KC.

 

But the other factor Philly and Tampa had in their Super Bowls was not just one elite pass rusher but waves of pass rushers that they were able to relentlessly send after Mahomes. So in that sense I like the way Beane has attacked the DL this offseason. A lot will depend on how well the three rookies develop and/or DeWayne Carter improves, but right now it looks semi-realistic that we could be 9 or 10 players deep with legit DL talent. That's the formula that has proven successful to harass and ultimately beat Mahomes in the playoffs so on paper at least I like the strategy.

[JP51]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Meaning no disrespect, I think you're misperceiving, more or less completely, what signing Moore is about.  The Bills signed him to be part of their receiver-by-committee approach. They don't expect him to be a 1000-yard receiver - if that happens, great, but that's not what they signed him for.  They signed him to play maybe 30-40% of the wide receiver snaps, get maybe 500-600 yards - just like the receivers did last year. 

 

The way we all used to think about receivers is that the team had three wideouts - like, for example, Diggs and Davis and a slot guy, and the other guys were backups who played only when the Bills went four-wide or when someone got injured.  That isn't how they play any longer.  Now, they want to have, essentially, five starting wide-outs, all of whom play, and all of whom can play pretty much any of the wideout positions. The Bills put them on the field in all kinds of different combinations and different formations. It all changes from play to play. They challenge the defense to get the right personnel on the field, play after play, to match the Bills personnel, and even then the defense doesn't know what positions those receivers will be playing. It's almost impossible to adjust the defensive personnel to be ready for everything and to get the defensive matchups they want everywhere. 

 

So, there's a lot of reason to be excited about Moore, because he certainly could be exactly what the Bills expect - an upgrade to the total talent on the wider receiver committee. I'm excited, because every player who makes the committee better makes the Bills better. If he turns out to be Valdez-Scantling and gets cut, okay, but that's always a risk.

 

He's a good candidate to improve the committee. How do I know that? He was a second-round pick, which means he has the athletic skill set to be a threat on the field.  So, I'm excited. 

 

They aren't expecting the equivalent of Jerry Hughes. I'm not sure why you didn't think the Bills would get production from him - he was a first-round draft pick who didn't fit the Bears' scheme.  I was hoping he'd be a solid player for the Bills when they got him.  But Hughes is irrelevant in the discussion of Moore, because the Bills don't particularly need Moore to be anything like the equivalent of what Hughes became. 

 

 

Shaw... I have followed you for 15 years here (even though I have only posted for 1 yr) I have never seen you ever be disrespectful to any poster... I take none... 

 

With respect to your thoughts, I am not sure where you are getting I am disagreeing with you in fact I cant disagree with a thing you said...

 

I think my commentary was to the extreme opposites of opinion on the board.. from he isnt good why did we sign him  to this is great... 

 

I am simply saying I am in the middle of the pack in my opinion...  I like the signing, I like we are trying to improve the team and I like the fact there is a potential upside greater than just a moderate contributor even though I am not expecting it... and even more so I like the fact he is taking shots at players with upside over veterans like OBJ etc... so lets call it what it is... this is not supposed to  be a savior signing nor is it a bad one...  Beane is trying to improve the team and add speed... this may work, it may not... but the signing and taking a chance on a cheaper player with upside potential i am not going to disagree with...  like Jerry Hughes.. most thought he would come in and produce...  I just never expected him to have the kind of impact that he did... I was happily surprised...  I this player will come in and make the team fill in as a 4th WR add some speed and make some catches and give us another speed threat that we need. I feel like a nice moderate contribution...  If he become our No 1 or 2 WR threat... awesome! Maybe he will... and thats why I dont mind taking chances from time to time on young players with upside potential... if he flops out... oh well, we took a shot, didnt kill the cap and that means someone in house is better... 

[The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Moore and Josh Palmer were St. Thomas Aquinas HS teammates in Florida during the 2026-2017 season. So that is another connection on the squad. 

Well hopefully they got along while they were there 😆

[eball]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

and before you know it.. you had 3 people that did not agree to this post.. next topic lol.... 

 

It's 10-3, brother...but if everyone agreed with everything around here it'd be a pretty boring place.  Cheers.

 

[Billl]

12 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Moore has had over 100 targets in each of the past 2 seasons.  No other player on the Bills has ever had over 100 targets in a season.

[ColoradoBills]

Welcome to Buffalo Elijah.  Hope it ends up being a great deal for both you and the team.

[Warriorspikes51]

Moore for WR3 in targets

 

Shakir

Palmer

Moore

 

Samuel

Coleman

 

unless Keon takes a leap 

[Low Positive]

46 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

There has always been a debate about the nature vs. nurture as to what a person ever becomes.  As applied to the NFL, is it more on the culture and coaching of the franchise you play for or is it on the what the player brings to the table that defines their career.  If the Bills like him in 2021, there may be something more to gain from his talent here vs. for the Jets and Browns.

I want to agree with this because it makes sense, but I'm having a hard time finding an example of a passcatcher making a big leap in production due to improved QB play. They seem to be who they are. 

[Warriorspikes51]

23 minutes ago, Billl said:

Moore has had over 100 targets in each of the past 2 seasons.  No other player on the Bills has ever had over 100 targets in a season.

& how many of those targets were really bad throws?  Likely 25+

2 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

I want to agree with this because it makes sense, but I'm having a hard time finding an example of a passcatcher making a big leap in production due to improved QB play. They seem to be who they are. 

Diggs

John Brown

Cole Beasley

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

37% were “uncatchable”

 

I don't know how much to read into that to be honest. The catchable targets stat doesn't seem to really indicate anything. Even if you assume the subjective data is accurate, what is there to take away from this chart:

 

Moore is 5th from the top. But not too far below him you have WRs that had very good QB situations and still managed to produce with the catchable targets they had - Dell, Flowers, Jameson Williams, AJ Brown, Worthy.

 

This stat actually reveals Moore's biggest problem. 71.4% catchable targets but only a 59.8% catch rate... That's why he hasn't been able to stick in the NFL, he is not making the most of his opportunities. Poor catch radius and poor adjustments in zone.

[JESSEFEFFER]

17 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

I want to agree with this because it makes sense, but I'm having a hard time finding an example of a passcatcher making a big leap in production due to improved QB play. They seem to be who they are. 

To be fair, there is a third component to the mix and that would be opportunity which can be limited by injury or the strength of a roster.   I'll throw 2 names to the mix to start with.   Wes Welker and Frank Lewis.  I will so some more thinking over lunch.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Plus Cook, Davis, and Johnson sneaking out of the backfield

Yep

 

I don't think we are going to have an elite receiving group. We don't yet have a guy that DCs lose sleep wondering how to cover.

 

What I think the Bills do have is a lot of average to good (some very good) players, and the variety to scheme up an attack week to week based on that teams weaknesses.

 

Are they bad against the run/inclement weather? Break out the jumbo sets and pound it.

 

Do they play heavy zone? Shakir is devastating against zone 

 

Do they play heavy man? Well now we have Palmer and Moore (hopefully Keon) as man beaters.

 

I think that a 11 formation of Moore/Palmer at X, Coleman at Y, Shakir in the slot and Kincaid/Knox at TE and Cook/Davis/Ty is a replicable base offense to attack from

 

[YattaOkasan]

27 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

I want to agree with this because it makes sense, but I'm having a hard time finding an example of a passcatcher making a big leap in production due to improved QB play. They seem to be who they are. 

From just a quick look Deion Branch seems like a great example.  Y/target of 7.9 yards per with NWE and 6.9 with SEA.  Note that he played with NWE before and after SEA.  This includes his rookie and final year numbers.  2010 is very interesting as he had less than 7.0 YPT and after joining Pats he had 9.5 YPT.  

[GreenMtnBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Yep

 

I don't think we are going to have an elite receiving group. We don't yet have a guy that DCs lose sleep wondering how to cover.

 

What I think the Bills do have is a lot of average to good (some very good) players, and the variety to scheme up an attack week to week based on that teams weaknesses.

 

Are they bad against the run/inclement weather? Break out the jumbo sets and pound it.

 

Do they play heavy zone? Shakir is devastating against zone 

 

Do they play heavy man? Well now we have Palmer and Moore (hopefully Keon) as man beaters.

 

I think that a 11 formation of Moore/Palmer at X, Coleman at Y, Shakir in the slot and Kincaid/Knox at TE and Cook/Davis/Ty is a replicable base offense to attack from

 

1000% the offense they are trying to build imo. Relying on their skill players to win matchups when they present themselves rather than just relying on one elite horse to do the heavy lifting. I think one advantage this year's group has over last year's is more WR's that specialize in winning routes and separating. Sure no DC is tearing their hair out trying to gameplan for Moore and Palmer, but both have a strong skillset to win matchups and find space when needed. That is absolutely going to help the offense and give Brady and Josh more ways to keep drives moving and score. Josh and the offense are definitely evolving into the "take what the defense gives you" mindset and willing to bide their time until they got a home run shot play or two. 

[Low Positive]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know how much to read into that to be honest. The catchable targets stat doesn't seem to really indicate anything. Even if you assume the subjective data is accurate, what is there to take away from this chart:

 

Moore is 5th from the top. But not too far below him you have WRs that had very good QB situations and still managed to produce with the catchable targets they had - Dell, Flowers, Jameson Williams, AJ Brown, Worthy.

 

This stat actually reveals Moore's biggest problem. 71.4% catchable targets but only a 59.8% catch rate... That's why he hasn't been able to stick in the NFL, he is not making the most of his opportunities. Poor catch radius and poor adjustments in zone.

Worthy's production as a rookie gets overblown on this board for obvious reasons. He had 98 targets for 638 yards with 7 drops. Keon Coleman, who everyone here assumes is a bust, had 57 targets for 556 yards with 4 drops. And that's with Coleman playing in 13 games while Worthy played in all 17. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

42 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

To be fair, there is a third component to the mix and that would be opportunity which can be limited by injury or the strength of a roster.   I'll throw 2 names to the mix to start with.   Wes Welker and Frank Lewis.  I will so some more thinking over lunch.

More Bills related names.  Haven Moses and Ahmad Rashad.  Add Charlie Joyner.  Damn, I am getting old.

Edited 4 hours ago by JESSEFEFFER

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, Low Positive said:

Worthy's production as a rookie gets overblown on this board for obvious reasons. He had 98 targets for 638 yards with 7 drops. Keon Coleman, who everyone here assumes is a bust, had 57 targets for 556 yards with 4 drops. And that's with Coleman playing in 13 games while Worthy played in all 17. 

🙏

[YattaOkasan]

45 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know how much to read into that to be honest. The catchable targets stat doesn't seem to really indicate anything. Even if you assume the subjective data is accurate, what is there to take away from this chart:

 

Moore is 5th from the top. But not too far below him you have WRs that had very good QB situations and still managed to produce with the catchable targets they had - Dell, Flowers, Jameson Williams, AJ Brown, Worthy.

 

This stat actually reveals Moore's biggest problem. 71.4% catchable targets but only a 59.8% catch rate... That's why he hasn't been able to stick in the NFL, he is not making the most of his opportunities. Poor catch radius and poor adjustments in zone.

I think the big difference with those other players is they have a much higher ADOT.  They are being targeted down the field whereas Moore's uncatchable balls are closer to the LoS.  I didnt have catchable balls in the PFR database so I cant tell what typical catchable % to catch % looks like but Moore's ADOT was lower than most of the others with a similar catch %.  Also of note he only had a 4.9% drop rate so the difference of 11.6% between catchable and catch % is not just on him as PBUs and INT would be included in the catchable % but might not be catchable per se (I dont know exactly how they handle that with the metric, but assume only grosses misses are considered uncatchable).