Diggs' Drama

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That's the Gabe Davis and Isiah McKenzie sales pitch I heard.  He's not a bad route runner but he's better creating space after the catch than before.  It's why his stats are better against zone coverage.  The arm length thing isn't over exaggerated as he is in the bottom 1% of WR's.  It's why he can't play outside as press man coverage eliminates him from the play.  He also isn't going to win any 50/50 balls down the field.  I was actually pleasantly surprised with the amount of production he had last year down the field on deep throws given his limitations but that usually came on low trajectory deep ball passes or broken plays.  My guess is we'll never have worse outside WR's than we had last year so those opportunities will decline 

 

His strong suit is finding the soft spot in zones and running after the catch.  Allen likes to push the ball downfield so you're never going to see him get Wes Welker like production which we are talking about with over 1,200 yards from a purely slot WR.

 

You are completely missing the question and the point though.  One of the posters said "no chance" he could amass "1200-1400" yards on the same targets we fed Diggs (160).  So the only thing being discussed right now is if he got 60 more targets last year, what would his yards have been.  What you think his strengths and weaknesses are is irrelevant to the math question of how many more yards above the 821 yards would he have had if he received 60 additional targets.   

 

Unless you think he is going to add 0 yards and 0 receptions with those 60 more targets in his role last year, then how many yards he would have on 160 targets is clearly bigger than the 821 yards he got on his first 100 targets.  And based on his actual production last year, that would have been 1313 yards with 60 more targets...and if you used his career averages it would be even higher.  

 

Its not an advocation to give him 160 targets, but for anyone to say there is "no chance" he could get to "1200-1400" yards with 160 targets is pretty silly because he clearly could on that many targets and its honestly not really even debatable.  

 

 

Edited yesterday at 05:53 AM by Alphadawg7

[Doc Brown]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You are completely missing the question and the point though.  One of the posters said "no chance" he could amass "1200-1400" yards on the same targets we fed Diggs (160).  So the only thing being discussed right now is if he got 60 more targets last year, what would his yards have been.   

 

Unless you think he is going to add 0 yards and 0 receptions with those 60 more targets in his role last year, then how many yards he would have on 160 targets is clearly bigger than the 821 yards he got on his first 100 targets.  And based on his actual production last year, that would have been 1313 yards with 60 more targets...and if you used his career averages it would be even higher.  

 

Its not an advocation to give him 160 targets, but for anyone to say there is "no chance" he could get to "1200-1400" yards with 160 targets is pretty silly because he clearly could on that many targets and its honestly not really even debatable.  

 

 

It's a stupid argument then because if he gets 160 targets we're screwed.  Even in your projections you're assuming his catch rate and yards per catch would remain stagnant with 60 more targets.  His yards per catch went from 15.7 yards to 10.8 yards with more than double the targets.  His catch percentage went from 86.7% in 2023 to 76% in 2024.  His total yardage only increased by about 34% despite more than double the targets.  Why would 60 more targets not have the same downward trajectory?  Also, weren't you the one that predicted Shakir would have over 1300 yards receiving with 100 targets before last year or something like that with the idiotic assumption he'd be able to maintain the same yards per catch with the increased role?

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It's a stupid argument then because if he gets 160 targets we're screwed.  Even in your projections you're assuming his catch rate and yards per catch would remain stagnant with 60 more targets.  His yards per catch went from 15.7 yards to 10.8 yards with more than double the targets.  His catch percentage went from 86.7% in 2023 to 76% in 2024.  His total yardage only increased by about 34% despite more than double the targets.  Why would 60 more targets not have the same downward trajectory?

 

First of all, no one is arguing for him to get 160 targets (which I just told you as well in the previous post too).  Someone said there was “no chance” he could reach “1200-1400 yards” on 60 more targets and mathematically it’s simply not true and that is all that was said.  So I don’t know why you want to drag this in all these other directions. 

 

And as for the bold, because he’s a good football player.  His efficiency in 2023 was an outlier on minimal targets, no one expected that not to drop, I mean of course it did.  But it doesn’t drop perpetually either, he’s still a good football player, his efficiency is going to have a floor and to just imply it will forever drop at the same rate is just a ridiculous premise.  And when you have 100 targets, you’ve got a pretty reliable sample size to know pretty much what would be expected at that point.  

 

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

 

  Also, weren't you the one that predicted Shakir would have over 1300 yards receiving with 100 targets before last year or something like that with the idiotic assumption he'd be able to maintain the same yards per catch with the increased role?

Lmao, no I never once projected that, not even close lol.  That’s a false premise a certain someone likes to pretend I said by twisting something out of context to pretend I did.  That reference was made when I pointed out the difference in efficiency between Shakir and Diggs during Diggs final season.  

My actual projection for him was around 90-110 targets and 900-1100 yards which is pretty much what he did when he was healthy.  

 

[GunnerBill]

The point about Shakir is the efficiency would continue to fall because he isn't versatile (or you might say 'complete') enough to be used in the range of ways you would need to use him to get him 160 targets. You'd end up trying to force feed the ball to him in situations where he is not best suited to a) get open and b) make the catch and so the likelihood is the efficiency would drop again. The more you get away from using the particular skillset he has and towards trying to use him as a "do it all" receiver the less efficient he will ultimately be. 

 

I actually think there is a case to be made that the way to get greater production out of Shakir would be to dial his targets back slightly.... not massively... but about a target per game compared to 2024 and to focus those targets better on optimising his skillset. I don't think the Bills are in the position to do that without having a better situation on the boundary, but I am open to the possibility that Shakir ends up having a 1,000 yard season at some stage on fewer targets than the 100 he had in 2024. 

12 hours ago, extrahammer said:

 

I mean, it's clearly some type of drug based on the fact he's not saying it was something else and he IS saying he isn't talking about it. I guess I'm just surprised at how lax the league policy is now about stuff like that. I mean sure, I can't prove exactly what drug it is, but again it's naive to think it wasn't drugs on any level based on the fact he's not clarifying that it's not and he's saying he isn't going to talk about it. In terms of what do I want to happen? Well, they're a rival so of course I want a suspension but it's clear that's not going to happen. It's just crazy to me. 

 

You can't exact league discipline on a player based on gut feel about what it was. The NFLPA would have a field day with it. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The point about Shakir is the efficiency would continue to fall because he isn't versatile (or you might say 'complete') enough to be used in the range of ways you would need to use him to get him 160 targets. You'd end up trying to force feed the ball to him in situations where he is not best suited to a) get open and b) make the catch and so the likelihood is the efficiency would drop again. The more you get away from using the particular skillset he has and towards trying to use him as a "do it all" receiver the less efficient he will ultimately be. 

 

 

 

Yeah @Alphadawg7 is simply so dug in on Shakir being great that he has to keep floating out "I'm just sayyyyyying"  faux projections.

 

Von Miller had 6 sacks on 279 snaps last year.  

 

That projects to 20 sacks over the course of a 930 snaps-played season like he had early in his career.

 

Who thinks Von Miller would have been the NFLDPOY if they just played him 85% of the snaps?

 

Everybody eats only works if everybody is used efficiently.

 

To your point.........less of Shakir was more in 2023 and would probably be so again in 2025 if they can develop or find some boundary talent worthy of targeting instead.

 

[Simon]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

To your point.........less of Shakir was more in 2023 and would probably be so again in 2025 if they can develop or find some boundary talent worthy of targeting instead.

 

 

It doesn't even have to be boundary talent.

If Kincaid can get his head out, the Bills can stress defenses enough between the hashes to create a lot of opportunities for the slot.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

It doesn't even have to be boundary talent.

If Kincaid can get his head out, the Bills can stress defenses enough between the hashes to create a lot of opportunities for the slot.

 

Overall, maybe so.

 

But I think with regard to production in games against better teams they need to threaten more on the boundary to open up the field for the slot/TE routes.

 

We found that out in Baltimore last season.   Shakir missed the Houston game but it was a similar situation........the Texans took away the Shakir/Kincaid area of the field and Allen failed to connect with Hollins and the result was disastrous offense.

 

They needed and got better play on the boundary to beat KC at home and to produce like they did on the road at LAR and Detroit.   They got it but it didn't come easy.   Wasn't the walk-in TD days of Diggs/Brown/Davis.

 

Even on paper it's not a surety that they are better outside.   We hope Coleman is better than Hollins(because that's likely his role) and that Palmer threatens defense's more than Cooper........but teams were legitimately concerned about Cooper because he'd been one of the most explosive outside WR of this era.   

 

 

[Simon]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Overall, maybe so.

 

But I think with regard to production in games against better teams they need to threaten more on the boundary to open up the field for the slot/TE routes.

 

We found that out in Baltimore last season.   Shakir missed the Houston game but it was a similar situation........the Texans took away the Shakir/Kincaid area of the field and Allen failed to connect with Hollins and the result was disastrous offense.

 

They needed and got better play on the boundary to beat KC at home and to produce like they did on the road at LAR and Detroit.   They got it but it didn't come easy.   Wasn't the walk-in TD days of Diggs/Brown/Davis.

 

Even on paper it's not a surety that they are better outside.   We hope Coleman is better than Hollins(because that's likely his role) and that Palmer threatens defense's more than Cooper........but teams were legitimately concerned about Cooper because he'd been one of the most explosive outside WR of this era.   

 

 

 

I was talking more tactically than strategically.

They can usually hide the hole by running more horizontally than vertically, but it should definitely create some breathing room against better defenses in elimination games if they can find somebody to threaten defenses outside the hashes.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I was talking more tactically than strategically.

They can usually hide the hole by running more horizontally than vertically, but it should definitely create some breathing room against better defenses in elimination games if they can find somebody to threaten defenses outside the hashes.

 

Yea that is the point in the boundary thing. It's not an issue until it is. You can beat 75% of this league within minimal boundary threat. But when it comes to it against the best teams and the best coaches they are going to force you to beat them outside if they don't think you can. It's classic Belichick. I'm going to take away what you do well and make you beat me another way and if you do, fair play to you.

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It's a stupid argument then because if he gets 160 targets we're screwed.  Even in your projections you're assuming his catch rate and yards per catch would remain stagnant with 60 more targets.  His yards per catch went from 15.7 yards to 10.8 yards with more than double the targets.  His catch percentage went from 86.7% in 2023 to 76% in 2024.  His total yardage only increased by about 34% despite more than double the targets.  Why would 60 more targets not have the same downward trajectory?  Also, weren't you the one that predicted Shakir would have over 1300 yards receiving with 100 targets before last year or something like that with the idiotic assumption he'd be able to maintain the same yards per catch with the increased role?

Yeah, that’s right, its stupid, 🤣

[Buffalo Junction]

37 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Overall, maybe so.

 

But I think with regard to production in games against better teams they need to threaten more on the boundary to open up the field for the slot/TE routes.

 

We found that out in Baltimore last season.   Shakir missed the Houston game but it was a similar situation........the Texans took away the Shakir/Kincaid area of the field and Allen failed to connect with Hollins and the result was disastrous offense.

 

They needed and got better play on the boundary to beat KC at home and to produce like they did on the road at LAR and Detroit.   They got it but it didn't come easy.   Wasn't the walk-in TD days of Diggs/Brown/Davis.

 

Even on paper it's not a surety that they are better outside.   We hope Coleman is better than Hollins(because that's likely his role) and that Palmer threatens defense's more than Cooper........but teams were legitimately concerned about Cooper because he'd been one of the most explosive outside WR of this era.   

 

 

Brady did a pretty solid job pressuring the boundary with Cook and Johnson, particularly against Detroit. That’s too much scheme and effort to be perpetually sustained though. Hopefully that Palmer, Coleman and Moore can make enough boundary plays early in the year to create space inside. 

[boyst]

since this pivoted to Shakir; i am not sure Shakir could handle being a 100+ reception guy. i think he has 3 maybe 4 more years at this level as a maximum.

 

the less we feed him the ball the better he will be and we can only do that by giving other targets to Josh

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

since this pivoted to Shakir; i am not sure Shakir could handle being a 100+ reception guy. i think he has 3 maybe 4 more years at this level as a maximum.

 

the less we feed him the ball the better he will be and we can only do that by giving other targets to Josh

 

 

Yeah Shakir takes a beating.   It's his style of play.  He tries to break every tackle and that has really endeared him to us as a fanbase.  Along with Allen's athleticism those things sustain a ton of drives that would otherwise be lifeless because of a lack of gamebreaking difference-making talent in the pass game.

 

They will have to pace Shakir like a RB because of it though.   And it only takes a fraction of the hits a RB takes to take a toll on a receiver.    One of those 360 spins where he ends up blindly taking a helmet to the chin on the other side is a kind of hit RB's rarely ever take because they can see the defense in front of them when they get the ball.    There isn't any blocking to protect you out there and you don't have a step to give like most RB's do.    Beasley went from excellent to impediment when he lost a half step.

 

Edited 22 hours ago by BADOLBILZ

[BarleyNY]

18 hours ago, Einstein said:

A drug test would prove it.

Unless he carries the drugs around for show rather than for ingestion.

I’ve heard rumors that some people - generally men - will offer drugs to others - generally women - so as to entice them to perform certain favors. Again, just a rumor. 

[ColoradoBills]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It's a stupid argument then because if he gets 160 targets we're screwed.  Even in your projections you're assuming his catch rate and yards per catch would remain stagnant with 60 more targets.  His yards per catch went from 15.7 yards to 10.8 yards with more than double the targets.  His catch percentage went from 86.7% in 2023 to 76% in 2024.  His total yardage only increased by about 34% despite more than double the targets.  Why would 60 more targets not have the same downward trajectory?  Also, weren't you the one that predicted Shakir would have over 1300 yards receiving with 100 targets before last year or something like that with the idiotic assumption he'd be able to maintain the same yards per catch with the increased role?

 

90% of the "arguments" in this place are stupid.  

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah Shakir takes a beating.   It's his style of play.  He tries to break every tackle and that has really endeared him to us as a fanbase.  Along with Allen's athleticism those things sustain a ton of drives that would otherwise be lifeless because of a lack of gamebreaking difference-making talent in the pass game.

 

They will have to pace Shakir like a RB because of it though.   And it only takes a fraction of the hits a RB takes to take a toll on a receiver.    One of those 360 spins where he ends up blindly taking a helmet to the chin on the other side is a kind of hit RB's rarely ever take because they can see the defense in front of them when they get the ball.    There isn't any blocking to protect you out there and you don't have a step to give like most RB's do.    Beasley went from excellent to impediment when he lost a half step.

 

 

The guy I have always said Shakir reminds me of is Ekeler at 27 he was a dynamic dual threat running back putting up 900 rushing and 700 receiving. Two years later he was no more than a return guy. He had a simiar low centre of gravity, try and spin out of every tackle, style as Shakir in the pass game.

[Jauronimo]

22 hours ago, extrahammer said:

 

I mean, it's clearly some type of drug based on the fact he's not saying it was something else and he IS saying he isn't talking about it. I guess I'm just surprised at how lax the league policy is now about stuff like that. I mean sure, I can't prove exactly what drug it is, but again it's naive to think it wasn't drugs on any level based on the fact he's not clarifying that it's not and he's saying he isn't going to talk about it. In terms of what do I want to happen? Well, they're a rival so of course I want a suspension but it's clear that's not going to happen. It's just crazy to me. 

The only thing we know for certain is that he handed a baggie containing a pink powder to some scantily clad sluts on a boat.  I did a keyword search through the NFL bylaws for sluts, pink, powder, baggie, and boats and came up with nothing.  I really do not see what rules he could have violated.

[JP51]

11 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

The only thing we know for certain is that he handed a baggie containing a pink powder to some scantily clad sluts on a boat.  I did a keyword search through the NFL bylaws for sluts, pink, powder, baggie, and boats and came up with nothing.  I really do not see what rules he could have violated.

His bathing suit wasnt NFL approved so they are going to fine him... the rest... no prob... lol 

[Malazan]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

90% of the "arguments" in this place are stupid.  

 

Your percent seems rather low.

[Mr. WEO]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yes he would.  You don’t think Shakir could get 379 more yards on 60 more targets?  Of course he could.   
 

Diggs is the better WR in his prime without question, he was legit top 5.  Shakir isn’t going to put up the same season as Diggs…But to say Shakir has no chance to get to 1200-1400 yards if he saw 160 targets is just not accurate.  

 

160 targets for Shakir? hey why not 200!

 

a grand total of 2 NFL WRs had 160 or more targets last year. There is no reality where he would get 160 on the Bills or any other team in the league.  

 

These extrapolation exercises are alway pointless.