What kind of season are you expecting from Josh Allen this year?

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Bills aPHILLYate said:

I was torn between better and best of career but went with the latter.

I think his rushing stats will take a dip but I think he will be highly efficient passing and challenge career highs in yds/%/tds

The WR core as it stands I think is arguably the most versatile group he'll play with. 

He operates best when spreading targets out and he becomes exponentially more dangerous when you don't expect the heroics as opposed to relying on them. 

 

I'll say: 4500yds passing, 39tds, 11int, 67comp%, 450yds rushing, 8tds 

 

I don't necessarily agree but really hope this is true!

[MJS]

2 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

If Mahomes doesn't get MVP which I think is a good chance now that he has better weapons, then I expect Josh to potentially get his first.

 

The talk all offseason has been and will be centred around how the Bills have taken a step back without davis and Diggs. If Allen has a great year people will really open their eyes.

 

Without having to feel like he must target Diggs so many times a game to appease him he'll spread the ball around more. Plus I think Brady will incorporate a lot of screens and dump offs to the RBs this season, which will kick up Allen's completion percentage,  reduce ints and result in more YAC plays

It usually goes to the QB on the team with the best record. Or the QB with monster numbers that dwarf all others. That's why Jackson got it despite having worse numbers than Allen and a bunch of other QB's.

 

So, if Josh wants to win MVP, the Bills need to end the season with a 1 seed.

1 hour ago, Bills aPHILLYate said:

I was torn between better and best of career but went with the latter.

I think his rushing stats will take a dip but I think he will be highly efficient passing and challenge career highs in yds/%/tds

The WR core as it stands I think is arguably the most versatile group he'll play with. 

He operates best when spreading targets out and he becomes exponentially more dangerous when you don't expect the heroics as opposed to relying on them. 

 

I'll say: 4500yds passing, 39tds, 11int, 67comp%, 450yds rushing, 8tds 

I think his rushing yards will increase. Maybe not his rushing TD's, because that was an insane number last year. But Allen is with a bunch of unproven or unfamiliar targets now, which to me means he will be more willing to keep the ball in his own hands until he develops the trust and chemistry with his new targets, which might happen fast, but might take a long time, or never...

[Rockinon]

I think Josh will start off slow and gradually get better as the season progresses. He's got a lot of young guys, new guys, to get on the same page with. Might take some time. Hopefully training camp gets the new guys up to speed quick. Maybe he surprises me and has a career year, but that just seems like a tall order. However, I think the running game is going to be fantastic this year. That's going to take a lot of pressure off of Josh.

[DCofNC]

Brand new WR core, first year of Brady as OC in full, more emphasis on running the ball.  I think number wise it will be similar to last year.  Hopefully, he really cuts down the turn overs and potentially runs less often himself.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

...

 

2.  Brady's offense is going to be good, and well suited to Josh and his receivers.   How do I know that?   Because Beane and McDermott are trying to build a winner, they got to see Brady in a tryout half-season, have gotten to know how he thinks about the game and what kind of attack he envisions.  McBeane have had an opportunity to test what Beane offers, and they obviously concluded that Brady can do the job.   They might be wrong, of course - they thought Dorsey could do it, too, but the extended tryout means they are much more likely to have gotten it right this time.  

 

...

 

 

 

Beane and McD are smart, capable people who know football far better than I do.  I'm guessing McD gave Brady the OC job and Beane acquiesced.  So, should I trust their judgment?  Hmm.

 

Let's consider McD's track record with OCs.  He first hired Rick Dennison who he quickly fired.  Then he hired Daboll who left for a bigger opportunity.  Then he promoted Dorsey only to fire him.  I'll call Daboll a win and the other two losses.   McD is batting .333.  

 

That record doesn't exactly inspire confidence. 

 

Neither does Brady's performance as the Bills OC so far.  He put together one good rushing game and spread the ball around more than Dorsey.  But he struggled to scheme guys open and Josh's stats under Brady took a nosedive.  

 

So maybe with different weapons and a full offseason to prepare, Brady will perform better this year.  I certainly hope so.  But my cup isn't overflowing with confidence.  

 

There's a lot of buzz about Diggs' departure and who's going to replace him.  But the man I will watch most closely this year is Joe Brady.  I think the season hinges on him.  

 

 

 

[DapperCam]

About the same volume stats except:

 

- Less interceptions and a lower interception percentage. I think this for two reasons: Gabe Davis is gone, offense is going to be more dink and dunk

- Lower YPA

- Lower “air yards”

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Beane and McD are smart, capable people who know football far better than I do.  I'm guessing McD gave Brady the OC job and Beane acquiesced.  So, should I trust their judgment?  Hmm.

 

Let's consider McD's track record with OCs.  He first hired Rick Dennison who he quickly fired.  Then he hired Daboll who left for a bigger opportunity.  Then he promoted Dorsey only to fire him.  I'll call Daboll a win and the other two losses.   McD is batting .333.  

 

That record doesn't exactly inspire confidence. 

 

Neither does Brady's performance as the Bills OC so far.  He put together one good rushing game and spread the ball around more than Dorsey.  But he struggled to scheme guys open and Josh's stats under Brady took a nosedive.  

 

So maybe with different weapons and a full offseason to prepare, Brady will perform better this year.  I certainly hope so.  But my cup isn't overflowing with confidence.  

 

There's a lot of buzz about Diggs' departure and who's going to replace him.  But the man I will watch most closely this year is Joe Brady.  I think the season hinges on him.  

 

 

 

When my grandson was 10, we went out in the driveway, and he made four free throws out of ten.   Now he's 15, and a couple nights ago he made 93 out of 100.  

 

When I was 35, I was a smart young lawyer.  When I was 40, I was a much smarter lawyer.  

 

Point is, people learn and improve, especially motivated and dedicated people. McDermott never hired an OC until seven years ago, and prior to that he had zero training in the subject.  There is every reason to believe that he is getting smarter about all kinds of things head coaches are asked to decide, including hiring coordinators.  There isn't any more reason to think that he will always go 1 for 3 on OCs than I had to think that my grandson always would make only 40% of his free throws.  

 

Having said that, it bothers me that McDermott prefers to hire people he's worked with, particularly promoting from within.  Brady's a William and Mary football player and has a Carolina connection.   It makes me concerned that he doesn't cast a wide enough net.   I get that he likes having confidence in the way a guy works, confidence that comes from working with him, but there are other things that are important, too.   

 

Still, McDermott is desperately about winning and about continuous improvement.   He's not one to repeat the mistakes from the past.   So, I have some confidence that Brady knows what he's doing and that in particular he will take Allen to a higher level.  

[SoTier]

I voted better.  I think that the Bills plan a more balanced offense this season which, hopefully, will take the pressure off Allen to play "hero ball" -- and make fewer mistakes.  I don't think "making receivers better than they are" causes pressure on a QB like Allen (or Mahomes); they do that automatically even with great receivers.

[joshhasbighands]

I guess he just needs to be the winter soldier

 

 

[GoBills808]

it will be very difficult to improve on his 2023 season

 

he was 1st by a lot in Value over avg, 1st in CPOE, 3rd in success rate, 1st by a lot in ELO, 3rd in epa/dropback, 2nd in win%added...it was by far his best season

[ChiGoose]

I’d say about the same. I think Brady having a full offseason to prep will improve the offensive scheme but the WR room as it currently stands is a drop off from last year. 
 

OC environment: Better

WR room: Worse

Net: Probably around the same

[hondo in seattle]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

When my grandson was 10, we went out in the driveway, and he made four free throws out of ten.   Now he's 15, and a couple nights ago he made 93 out of 100.  

 

When I was 35, I was a smart young lawyer.  When I was 40, I was a much smarter lawyer.  

 

Point is, people learn and improve, especially motivated and dedicated people. McDermott never hired an OC until seven years ago, and prior to that he had zero training in the subject.  There is every reason to believe that he is getting smarter about all kinds of things head coaches are asked to decide, including hiring coordinators.  There isn't any more reason to think that he will always go 1 for 3 on OCs than I had to think that my grandson always would make only 40% of his free throws.  

 

Having said that, it bothers me that McDermott prefers to hire people he's worked with, particularly promoting from within.  Brady's a William and Mary football player and has a Carolina connection.   It makes me concerned that he doesn't cast a wide enough net.   I get that he likes having confidence in the way a guy works, confidence that comes from working with him, but there are other things that are important, too.   

 

Still, McDermott is desperately about winning and about continuous improvement.   He's not one to repeat the mistakes from the past.   So, I have some confidence that Brady knows what he's doing and that in particular he will take Allen to a higher level.  

 

This is a cogent argument and not only do I get your point, but I sincerely hope you're right.

 

But let's say, for the sake of argument, that you graduated law school when you were 35.  Needless to say, you'd be a much smarter, better attorney at age 40.  The first few years are the ones when the learning is most intense.  

 

McD became the Bills HC at age 43.  He was a first-time head coach but he had been around football nearly his entire life, including 16 years in the NFL.  You'd think by then, he'd have a good idea of who would be a good OC. 

 

After some time, the learning curve flattens.  Your grandson went from 4 out of 100 free throws to 93 out of 100.  (Congrats!)  But now that he's been at it for some years, he's not likely to get much better.  I think I recall McD using the expression, "growth mindset" in the past but I have to wonder how much he's learning and growing anymore.  A little, for sure, but maybe not a lot.  In retrospect, promoting Dorsey was a mistake.  After the Dorsey misfire, did McD experience some tremendous epiphany and suddenly uncover the secret attributes of a great OC?  Or is he still operating under his same old paradigms?  I don't know.  

 

Brady's lackluster tryout doesn't help my confidence.  The offense wasn't prolific when he called the shots last year.    

 

But, man, I really want you to be right.  

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

This is a cogent argument and not only do I get your point, but I sincerely hope you're right.

 

But let's say, for the sake of argument, that you graduated law school when you were 35.  Needless to say, you'd be a much smarter, better attorney at age 40.  The first few years are the ones when the learning is most intense.  

 

McD became the Bills HC at age 43.  He was a first-time head coach but he had been around football nearly his entire life, including 16 years in the NFL.  You'd think by then, he'd have a good idea of who would be a good OC. 

 

After some time, the learning curve flattens.  Your grandson went from 4 out of 100 free throws to 93 out of 100.  (Congrats!)  But now that he's been at it for some years, he's not likely to get much better.  I think I recall McD using the expression, "growth mindset" in the past but I have to wonder how much he's learning and growing anymore.  A little, for sure, but maybe not a lot.  In retrospect, promoting Dorsey was a mistake.  After the Dorsey misfire, did McD experience some tremendous epiphany and suddenly uncover the secret attributes of a great OC?  Or is he still operating under his same old paradigms?  I don't know.  

 

Brady's lackluster tryout doesn't help my confidence.  The offense wasn't prolific when he called the shots last year.    

 

But, man, I really want you to be right.  

McDermott believes in the growth mindset, and I do, too.  Not only was I a better lawyer at 40 than 35, but I was better at 50 than 40.  And not just a little better, a lot better.  

 

Last time Lebron won an NBA championship, Van Pelt asked him, "You're 37.  You won you first championship at 27.  If 27-year-old Lebron was sitting next to you, what would you say to him?"  Lebron said something like, "27-year-old Lebron, you don't have a clue."   It was Lebron's way of saying that he was so much better at 37 that it was hard to explain.   

 

I have no doubt McDermott is better at being a head coach today than he was a year ago, and he was better then than the year before that. 

 

Now, there are limits, as you say, and for intellectual growth, which is what we're talking about, natural intelligence limits growth.  For some people, it's either impossible or extraordinarily difficult to learn nuclear physics.  Without at all meaning to demean the man, but it's certainly possible that McDermott has maxed on his growth as a head coach.   I seriously doubt it, but it's possible.  

 

I think Brady is going to be fine, and because he will grow, too, he'll get better in coming seasons.   Problem is that if he has a lot of success he'll be sucked off to some head coaching job, and McDermott will have to choose again.  

[HOUSE]

How the hell should I know?

[Maine-iac]

I voted better.  I don't think his stat line will pop compared to his usual stats.  Probably similar yards and TD's.  Still making plays no one else makes but I'm hoping Allen has better command this year.  Less interceptions and less head scratching plays.  The same level of dangerous but lower levels of foolish.

[<bills4life>]

Wow!! 95 % polled expect Allen’s stats to be every bit as good or better. In what world does a qb who loses both of his starting wrs have better stats.  I hope all of you are right.  I love Kincaid and shakir.  Not sure about the rest of them. 

[gjv]

I'm guessing the Bill's Offense will be predicated on a tough smash-mouth ball control scheme. I don't see a WRer making this roster who is not a willing hard-nosed blocker, strong-contested catch fighter, and tough to bring down after the reception. Perhaps McDermott is finally going to get an offense that suits his personality.

[MasterStrategist]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The same as what though? 

His TD and yardage difference in averages under Dorsey v. Brady were pronounced.  

 

People, not necessarily you, seem to be taking Allen's entire season numbers while ignoring the quite significant drop in passing production under Brady into any account whatsoever.  

 

 

 

That will be both the key to his as well as the team's season.  

 

If he succeeds to a significant extent it'll end up being a monumental development for him.  

 

 

You've made a lot of posts, comparing offensive production (and now Allen), Dorsey vs Brady for 2024.

 

You're analyzing/compiling the stats correctly, no doubt on that.

 

But I think it's way too early to compare success with Brady at the helm.  

 

At least let Brady install "his offense" and have a full offseason in charge, before anything else.

 

Again your stats are accurate, but isn't it an injustice to Brady and the entire offense to try extrapolating any stats at this juncture?

 

There was a reason Dorsey was let go, this is definitely one of those situations of "let it play out".

 

*******

Re: QOD

I thought Josh had one of his worst seasons, from a decision making/reading defenses perspective.  

 

Alot goes hand in hand with Bradys offense install/playcalling, and also WR play, but I'm very hopeful on both aspects.

 

Yards: 4,300-4,500

TDs: 36

Ints: 10

 

Overall a much more efficient season.

Edited May 20 by MasterStrategist

[Bills aPHILLYate]

58 minutes ago, <bills4life> said:

Wow!! 95 % polled expect Allen’s stats to be every bit as good or better. In what world does a qb who loses both of his starting wrs have better stats.  I hope all of you are right.  I love Kincaid and shakir.  Not sure about the rest of them. 

Diggs disappeared after the first 1/3 of the season...

Gabe was pretty much non existent for the entire season and has never topped 50 catches in a season...

If you simply get some form of consistent production to the tune of 50yds a game; that replaces Gabe. I wholeheartedly believe Samuel will surpass that.

Diggs stats are replaced by a combination of the other wide outs and Kincaid (who I think will top 1000 or at minimum 900+)

If you keep the context of how those starting WRs performed then the task of replacing them doesn't seem as daunting. 

At least not to me 

 

 

[PBF81]

10 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

You've made a lot of posts, comparing offensive production (and now Allen), Dorsey vs Brady for 2024.

 

You're analyzing/compiling the stats correctly, no doubt on that.

 

But I think it's way too early to compare success with Brady at the helm.  

 

At least let Brady install "his offense" and have a full offseason in charge, before anything else.

 

Again your stats are accurate, but isn't it an injustice to Brady and the entire offense to try extrapolating any stats at this juncture?

 

There was a reason Dorsey was let go, this is definitely one of those situations of "let it play out".

 

Thank you.  

 

It may be too early to come to a final decision, but is it too early to start connecting some dots.  

 

This obsession with "complimentary football" is worrysome and seems misplaced given that we have Allen.  The point behind it all is that Brady has zero experience in the role.   The odds are even greater that he's not that good than, that he is that good.  Allen will make him look better than he would otherwise as he has with everyone in the role.   Allen would make any OC look better than they are.  But a good OC would be able to get him to play to his ceiling, not to his average or worse.  

 

Having said what you said, it's at least equally remiss to insist that Brady's the solution, again, given that this was not the case under him at the end of the season.  Sure, worst case for Brady was that it was Dorsey's offense, but Brady was an integral part of it, shouldn't he have been able to make more out of it than Dorsey if he's truly the better option?   Everyone said, in creating the narrative, that Brady was better in terms of getting production (from both Allen and the O) than Dorsey was.  But that's been proven mathematically and factually false.  So now for that narrative to be true, other supporting evidence needs to come into play.  

 

Why the plummeting of Allen's metrics towards career worst then?    It makes no sense if that's the case.  

 

Again, all we are left with between now and then is to discuss it.  

 

 

10 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

*******

Re: QOD

I thought Josh had one of his worst seasons, from a decision making/reading defenses perspective.  

 

Alot goes hand in hand with Bradys offense install/playcalling, and also WR play, but I'm very hopeful on both aspects.

 

Yards: 4,300-4,500

TDs: 36

Ints: 10

 

Overall a much more efficient season.

 

That's an unjustifiably optimistic expectation.  It would mimic Allen's best season ever, but with a game that's focused on the running game and shorter high-percentage passing game, under which Allen's efficiency metrics are his worst.  

 

It doesn't make much sense that he'll rival his career yardage and TD production with an increased emphasis on running the ball and a shorter passing game generally speaking.  Right?  

 

BTW, still happy to discuss Coleman.  If you go thru that video again, just note the timestamps of the great catches that he made.  We can discuss further thereupon.