WR Candidates - Who Does Beane Keep?

[gjv]

Perhaps Beane is experimenting with WRer by committee. Similar to RB by committee. He might be thinking that there are so many good WRers coming out each year that it makes more economic sense to have a bunch of one to five-million-dollar receivers, than one at 35 mil and a second at 18 mil.

[SCBills]

Coleman

Shakir

Samuel

MVS

 

Hollins

 

Top 4, IMO, will all get legitimate reps each game. 

 

WR5 Hollins will have a smaller role on Offense while playing Special Teams. 

 

WR6 Battle is going to be wild and I honestly have no idea what Shorter is. We thought enough of him to use a draft pick.  He played with an erratic QB at UF, didn't have much in the way of coaching and then redshirted last year.  

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

Sometimes I feel like when we get to the later rounds, Beane seems to be prioritizing how players can contribute on special teams when he selects them, rather than how they can contribute on offense or defense. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge advocate for devoting resources and attention to special teams. I feel that most fans underrate its importance. Exemplary or abysmal special teams play can swing 1-2 games a year. It's important. And your bottom-of-the-roster WRs, LBs, etc, DO need to be able to play special teams to stick.

BUT...I still can't help but wish that, at times, they'd prioritize guys who they think can help on offense and defense first, and then trust their coaches to TEACH them to be good special teams players, the way they trust their coaches to teach raw athletic prospects to be good offensive and defensive players.

Anyway, I bring this up because I feel like it's what resulted in the Bills drafting Justin Shorter over, say, Dontayvion Wicks, Puka Nacua, Trey Palmer, or Demario Douglas -- all of whom were drafted after Shorter. They knew Shorter would be a dynamite special teams player, and that's lovely, but he was never particularly good at actually playing receiver at Flordia, and it sure would be nice right now to have one of the other guys I just listed in the pipeline, instead of a guy who we HOPE can make the team as a gunner.

 

See, i thought shavers was the guy they grabbed for special teams chops, but even so.  Last year the depth chart was Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, Sherfield.  

 

This season I'd say Ulofoshio has a shot in LB depth, they brought in morrow but i think that spot will be open competition to replace matakevich.  Then Hardy in the 6th, who has potential to replace neal - and also potential to be primary return man.  I wouldn't consider either of those to be amazing use of picks, but they have better odds to make the roster than a player who doesn't play special teams, or someone at a position with lots of competition.  

 

10 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

True enough on the QB play but eye test clearly shows Pearsall as an actual dependable WR who runs the route tree and catches the ball with his hands. Shorter looks like a WR in shorts but doesn’t play like one I’d draft in the NFL. 
 

All I’m hoping for is that it’s truly an open competition with no agendas to keep a guy just because Beane drafted him. Who cares. Just get the 6 best WRs for Josh to depend on game day even if it’s some 26 year old Joe Shmoe who was delivering pizzas a week prior lol

Considering the breadth of players I'd have to say that is how the team is lined up.  It's like the same cost to keep anyone outside the top 3-4.  

[Logic]

11 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

See, i thought shavers was the guy they grabbed for special teams chops, but even so.  Last year the depth chart was Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty, Sherfield.  

 

This season I'd say Ulofoshio has a shot in LB depth, they brought in morrow but i think that spot will be open competition to replace matakevich.  Then Hardy in the 6th, who has potential to replace neal - and also potential to be primary return man.  I wouldn't consider either of those to be amazing use of picks, but they have better odds to make the roster than a player who doesn't play special teams, or someone at a position with lots of competition.  

 

Yeah, I hear ya.

I guess my point is that Beane and co seem to love using their early draft picks on really athletic, high ceiling college players and entrusting their coaches to coach those guys up (Allen, Edmunds, Coleman, Elam, etc). I wish they'd apply that same strategy and willingness to late round players, and entrust their coaches to teach those guys to play special teams.

In other words, I think they go about it a little backwards sometimes. They pick players that they already know will be good special teamers, and hope they can coach them into being useful on offense and defense. Sometimes, I wish they'd instead pick players that they think will be useful on offense or defense, and then trust their coaches to teach them to play special teams. As long as a guy has a WILLINGNESS to play special teams, if he's a good athlete, then he can theoretically be taught.

It's picking nits, because we're talking about late round players. It's also situationally specific. But in the instance of Justin Shorter, they could've foreseen an upcoming need at WR (with Davis set to become a free agent and Sherfield/Harty on short term deals), and concentrated more on finding a guy that had a potentially bright future on offense (Nacua, Wicks, Douglas, etc). 

Edited May 15 by Logic

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I always look at WR specifically and say - all the guys from last year who didn't play are 1 year older and thus forgotten.  Hamler and Isabella are like 4 years older and completely forgotten. 

 

There were 30+ new WRs added this year in the draft alone, plus additional UDFA's.  When i look at column 2 of this list: https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/wr , I'm having a hard time finding players that would be cut for someone like Shorter.  Obviously injuries can change a lot of things.  

 

And that may or may not prove true on Shorter. All I am saying is we know it is true on Hamler and Isabella so they will not keep those guys over someone they think is a risk to get claimed. In my head if you are looking at receivers that gets you to Shorter and possibly Claypool as the players for the final spot. If you are looking wider they could keep 5 receivers, keep a developmental tackle they like and have 2 or 3 of the vets on the PS. 

[GASabresIUFan]

This is going to be a crazy camp for all the receivers including Coleman, Shakir and Samuel.  Shakir is the only significant9 returnee and he may be playing a new position.  Coleman and Samuel have never played with Josh.

 

Everyone else is new to the organization or in the case of Isabella, Shavers and Shorter, have limited or no actual regular season PT with the Bills.  I honestly don;t know how this will shake out which is why I started the thread.  I do wonder how they will adequately evaluate all these potential targets for Josh while Josh has to work to build chemistry with the starters (Samuel, Coleman and Shakir).

 

The veteran player that most intrigues me is Claypool. He is big and fast, but has worn out his welcome in three previous places.  Still at 25 there is real potential that can be recovered.  2 800 yard seasons are hard to ignore.  
 

 

[sunshynman]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Feel free to wait as long as you need. We can wait. Seriously though, why wait? Everybody knows it's just a semi-educated guess at this point. I promise I won't crucify you if you guess wrong. Go on.

Oh sure you say that, then 

4 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You'd lose your entire 401k.

[sunshynman]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I am officially retired from speaking on the matter any further.

I spent 16 days voicing my concerns. People started to turn on me. I was really harshing their mellow. 

So from now on, I'm just gonna stick with 🤐 and hope for the best. 

I think the angst comes from people saying it looks bleak. I mean it's a valid opinion at this point. But also we just don't know what will happen. We could be pleasantly surprised or extremely disappointed. 

 

I see this as refreshing. Diggs was mailing it in by the end of the year. Plus his attitude. Gabe was bad and him and Allen were not clicking. 

 

Shakir and Kincaid were coming on strong and should be better. Both have higher ceilings then most think. Coleman walks and talks the part. I like is tape. He could thrive in Buffalo. Plus all the other guys are hungry!

 

This could end up being a very exciting group to watch. I am more optimistic than most. And I wanted a double dip at WR in the draft. Always felt a trade was out of the equation anyway. Unless they all struggle, then maybe a trade happens before the deadline.

[billsfan89]

I think the Bills are going to likely carry barring injury the following 5 WR's and I think they will likely carry a 6th WR but that's probably coming down to a battle between Shorter and the vets they are kicking the tires on such as Claypool, Hamler and Isabella. 

 

Top 5 WR's barring any injuries or drastic underperformances. 

1. Shakir
2. Samuel
3. Coleman
4. MVS
5. Hollins

WR's in the mix for a 6th WR spot

1. Shorter
2. Claypool
3. Hamler
4. Isabella

I do think the 6th WR spot is going to likely come down to Claypool vs. Shorter. I think they are going to likely have Isabella and Hamler compete for a vet PS spot.. While the 53 man roster spot comes down to if Shorter can be a special teams ace and show some receiving upside and if that's going to show out more than Claypool's possible receiving upside. 

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

I’d bet my entire 401k that Mack Hollins doesn’t make the roster

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think Hollins is a total lock, but I do think he is likely to make it. I certainly wouldn't be betting a single pound against it. 

I would!!  I’d bet $100- whatcha say @Brennan Huff?  😉 

 

I don’t think he’s a lock, but I do think he’s top 6 and a 1.1M dead cap if cut helps his case

[hondo in seattle]

This is a tough call but I think the Bills go with experience (and Coleman) and maybe stash the inexperienced guys on the practice squad.  And I think the Bills keep 6:

 

Coleman.  I think he'll be a starter from Day One. 

Samuels.  Most proven guy on the roster.  

Shakir.  Looked strong in the second half of last season.  

Hollins.  Versatile, process-type guy.  

MVS.  I think McD wants some speed in the WR room and MVS beats out the other field-stretchers (Hamler and Isabella).  Though I wish he had better hands.  

Claypool.  I don't think Beane would roll the dice on this kid if he didn't think there was a good chance he could return to form.

 

This is going to be a very interesting camp battle.  

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, NeverOutNick said:

I don’t think your statement is true at all about Hamler. If not for the injury last year he would’ve been a hot commodity due to his skill set as a burner and returner. Isabella is a much lesser version of him that has proven he’s not much of a difference maker on game day so I agree he would be fine on the PS. I also don’t think teams will go out of their way to roster Shorter either. This was an amazing WR draft class that shorter might not have even been drafted in. Hopefully Beane and McD truly make this an open competition because the contracts reflect that it should be. 

 

 

I don't think it was an amazing day 3 WR class to be honest it was very top heavy, but take the point it was an overall stronger draft and Shorter would not have been a lock to get drafted. This isn't really about Shorter for me, I have been pretty consistent since they drafted him that the chances of someone with that profile making it in the NFL are slim. Size speed guys who underachieve in college almost never break out in the league. The point is that those last few roster spots are about two things:

 

1. Special teams value; and

2. Likelihood to get claimed.

 

I think they feel VERY comfortable that both Isabella and Hamler would not be claimed. Maybe if one tears up pre-season that changes. But right now, they would both make it through to a PS. Hamler was released after injury and medical conditions with the Broncos but he then spent the entire season on the practice squad of the Colts and didn't elevate him once despite a far from stacked receiver room that included Juwann Winfree and DJ Montgomery. There is no reason to put either of those guys on the roster unless they totally dominate pre-season. They will get to your practice squad. Use the 53 protected spots you have on someone who might not. 

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Yeah, I hear ya.

I guess my point is that Beane and co seem to love using their early draft picks on really athletic, high ceiling college players and entrusting their coaches to coach those guys up (Allen, Edmunds, Coleman, Elam, etc). I wish they'd apply that same strategy and willingness to late round players, and entrust their coaches to teach those guys to play special teams.

In other words, I think they go about it a little backwards sometimes. They pick players that they already know will be good special teamers, and hope they can coach them into being useful on offense and defense. Sometimes, I wish they'd instead pick players that they think will be useful on offense or defense, and then trust their coaches to teach them to play special teams. As long as a guy has a WILLINGNESS to play special teams, if he's a good athlete, then he can theoretically be taught.

It's picking nits, because we're talking about late round players. It's also situationally specific. But in the instance of Justin Shorter, they could've foreseen an upcoming need at WR (with Davis set to become a free agent and Sherfield/Harty on short term deals), and concentrated more on finding a guy that had a potentially bright future on offense (Nacua, Wicks, Douglas, etc). 

They drafted Shakir in that range the year prior and is going to be a big part of the offense.  He passed both on the roster last season and positioned for a primary role.  Id argue if Diggs was injured similar to Kupp and Watson Shakir would have made a much larger impact last season.  Nacua and Wicks production was tied to injury creating the opportunity for increased target share.   

[dpberr]

I see Hollins as the new special teams captain, not necessarily a WR that will see game time catching balls barring injury.

 

I see Isabella and Hamler as returners.  Bills will pick one of the two.  

 

I see Claypool and Cephus as solids to their agents. They may have great camps but really this is about the Bills giving them an opportunity. 

 

MVS, Shorter and Shavers are my picks for that WR4 position at this juncture, with a lean towards the guys who've been here.  Bills have had every opportunity to move on from Shorter and Shavers and have not.  

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

They drafted Shakir in that range the year prior and is going to be a big part of the offense.  He passed both on the roster last season and positioned for a primary role.  Id argue if Diggs was injured similar to Kupp and Watson Shakir would have made a much larger impact last season.  Nacua and Wicks production was tied to injury creating the opportunity for increased target share.   

I'll grant you the Shakir point.

As for Shorter over the others last year, I'd argue that it was more than just injury in front of them creating opportunity. Nacua and Wicks (and Demario Douglas, Trey Palmer, and AT Perry) all had more productive college careers than Shorter. They all seemed to possess traits that were more readily projectible into NFL offenses.

Shorter, by comparison, wasn't a particularly good receiver even at Florida, and he seems more like what would come out if you typed "give me a lifelong NFL gunner" into ChatGPT.

 

[NeverOutNick]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think it was an amazing day 3 WR class to be honest it was very top heavy, but take the point it was an overall stronger draft and Shorter would not have been a lock to get drafted. This isn't really about Shorter for me, I have been pretty consistent since they drafted him that the chances of someone with that profile making it in the NFL are slim. Size speed guys who underachieve in college almost never break out in the league. The point is that those last few roster spots are about two things:

 

1. Special teams value; and

2. Likelihood to get claimed.

 

I think they feel VERY comfortable that both Isabella and Hamler would not be claimed. Maybe if one tears up pre-season that changes. But right now, they would both make it through to a PS. Hamler was released after injury and medical conditions with the Broncos but he then spent the entire season on the practice squad of the Colts and didn't elevate him once despite a far from stacked receiver room that included Juwann Winfree and DJ Montgomery. There is no reason to put either of those guys on the roster unless they totally dominate pre-season. They will get to your practice squad. Use the 53 protected spots you have on someone who might not. 

Agree to disagree on the draft class. I believe it was it was amazing throughout. 3 top WRs that would’ve been top 10 picks in any draft class and then at least 20 guys after them that will be good NFL pros. You don’t get that most years.

 

Maybe you’re right on Hamler being able to hide on the PS.  He did have the heart scare that I’m sure a lot of teams wanted to do their due diligence with. He’s got unbelievable upside so personally I wouldn’t risk putting him on the PS again especially since I believe if healthy he will be one of the top 5 WRs on this team. But we will see soon enough 

[TheBrownBear]

I see it like this.  Obviously, top three of Coleman, Samuels, Shakir.  Then:

 

WR4: X role/field stretcher: MVS vs Claypool

WR5/ST gunner: Hollins vs. Shorter/Shavers/Cephus/Claypool

WR6?: Speed/Gadget/Return guy (we always seem to keep one of these): Hamler vs. Isabella (Could forego this and keep Claypool instead if he really shows something on special teams and we find a returner among our other players)

 

In the end, like most others, I think we end up with a room of Coleman, Samuels, Shakir, MVS and Hollins.  If we keep a 6th (instead of just utilizing the PS), I think it's an upside guy like Hamler or Claypool.

Edited May 15 by TheBrownBear

[Brennan Huff]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

 

I would!!  I’d bet $100- whatcha say @Brennan Huff?  😉 

 

I don’t think he’s a lock, but I do think he’s top 6 and a 1.1M dead cap if cut helps his case

I will put 5 dollars on it

[hondo in seattle]

Looking at this group, I don't think many opposing DBs are going to say, "Man, playing the Bills is going to be a huge challenge.  They have All-Pros running routes all over the field!"   We don't have any All-Pros or Pro Bowlers.  A skeptic might argue we only have one legit starter in our WR room.

 

But I'm hoping one or two of these guys surprises the critics.  There is some potential here.  And I think the diverse wideout skillset, combined with the talents of our TEs and RBs, give Brady enough to create a viable passing attack.  

[mrags]

If they keep Hollins over both MVS and Claypool I’ll be sick to my stomach.