Definition of a #1 receiver

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Loved what I saw out of Kincaid last yr but he's still a ways off from best TE of all time conversations 

 

When I say we need a legit #1 guy I mean I think the Bills need it, not that you generally can't win a SB without one. Imo this specific team w all their attributes benefits most from a wideout of that caliber

Yeah, Kincaid is a ways off, but so was Kelce during his rookie year.  Dude didn’t even play. I doubt he’ll be Kelce but I believe he can be the best TE in the league very soon.
 

I hear ya regarding the 2nd paragraph.  I’d just take an elite pass rusher over an elite WR all day every day.  On this team especially.  I don’t think WR1 is this teams biggest need. Elite pass rusher is.  A absolute game wrecker that makes hall of fame plays in the biggest moments.  What upsets me most is….we had that. Until thanksgiving 2022.  Von was a force with the game on the line.  A true PTPer.  He was our Chris Jones.  And now we don’t one.   
 

We had a true alpha dog elite WR1 and it worked against us.  Maybe that’s on the coaching.  Maybe it’s on Josh.  Or Diggs.  Most likely a combination of all 3.  But for whatever reason, our alpha dog elite WR1 was nowhere to be found in our biggest games 

Edited April 29 by NewEra

[seattlebillsfan]

Lots of thoughtful comments in this thread so I hesitate to weigh in, but I would assert one thing, which is that if your definition of a #1 is someone like Kelce, Moss, Gronk, or Lofton, then you have set the bar really, really high…Clearly most teams won’t have a #1 if that is the bar, because most teams won’t have a Hall of Fame receiver. So it seems either like we need a lower bar, or we need a new label—don’t call the player a #1, call him a HoF wide receiver…

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BruceVilanch said:

Prime Julio was pretty good 

So was Antonio Brown and so is Jefferson, Adams, Chase and many others over the year.  
 

Moss and Julio are candidates for top 5 all time.  You don’t have to be THAT to be WR1

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

The premise of this thread is one poor attempt at some gotcha moment. I'm going to assume you're intentionally being obtuse and are actually smart enough to have an idea what makes someone a #1 WR. 

Nope again.  Look at answers here.  

[Boatdrinks]

I’d liken the answer to this #1 WR question to that Supreme Court Justice’s answer to the definition of porn ; “ I know it when I see it “

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Yards Per Target (YPT) is a good barometer IMO. You want a guy with a YPT over 8.5 at least (the higher the better but anything over 10 is elite) while eating up a lot of targets. Unfortunately, Diggs ate up a lot of targets, 160 or so, and had a YPT of like 7.5, but even worse, that was his YPT for the season. He was far worse down the stretch of the regular season with a YPT in the 5's. And in the two post season games his YPT was below 5. 

 

Now, in both 2020 and 2022 Diggs had a YPT over 9 for the season. 

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I’d liken the answer to this #1 WR question to that Supreme Court Justice’s answer to the definition of porn ; “ I know it when I see it “

 

What would have been your opinion of Diggs this last year as a #1 WR? He certainly looked the part in terms of both volume and production the first half of the season. But the second half of the season he was simply a guy getting a more targets than everyone else but not producing. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Yards Per Target (YPT) is a good barometer IMO. You want a guy with a YPT over 8.5 at least (the higher the better but anything over 10 is elite) while eating up a lot of targets. Unfortunately, Diggs ate up a lot of targets, 160 or so, and had a YPT of like 7.5, but even worse, that was his YPT for the season. He was far worse down the stretch of the regular season with a YPT in the 5's. And in the two post season games his YPT was below 5. 

 

Now, in both 2020 and 2022 Diggs had a YPT over 9 for the season. 

 

What would have been your opinion of Diggs this last year as a #1 WR? He certainly looked the part in terms of both volume and production the first half of the season. But the second half of the season he was simply a guy getting a more targets than everyone else but not producing. 

I’d probably call him a #1 receiver, but that opinion is colored by fandom. Greg Cosell said his film study indicated that Diggs is no longer a #1 WR in the league , even though he was the Bills # 1. The draft compensation was also indicative of his value around the NFL. In reality , I’d have to say he probably isn’t a # 1 anymore , but as fans we get attached to these players. 

[ngbills]

The answer is essentially is there a guy your d needs to focus on, double or triple cover, game plan around etc. or can you just go plain vanilla. If you’re playing kc you plan around Kelce. That helps other guys. You can’t stop them all. Right now there is no one on on the bills other team needs to say oh no we better stop that that guy. Diggs demanded that kind of attention. 

Edited April 29 by ngbills

[Thrivefourfive]

Make this simple. A WR1 is superior in talent to his teammate WRs and his opponents. He makes more plays, because he’s better. Those plays add up in the stats columns, so numbers are a result of superior talent, WR1. 
 

Yes I want one. Kelce and Kincaid’s comp isn’t close to even yet, with one ascending, one descending, it will be a Swift passing, so guess we’ll see if Kincaid is good enough for us to be the Chiefs. But right now, we’re not, and 12 months ago, Kincaid didn’t even exist. So yes, we are and should be continuing our search to REPLACE our WR1.

[Victory Formation]

A #1 WR is someone who makes plays when you need them and the game is on the line.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I keep reading how we have to go find a true #1 WR.  That begs the question:  what is a #1 WR?  A guy that makes X catches a year?  Demands double teams?  What?

 

I ask because the team we keep trying to beat, the team who has won several Lombardis in recent years, doesn’t seem to have a #1 WR.  So how do they win?  They have a #1 TE.  Does that count?  Is so than can Kincaid count as ours?

 

To me you know you have a true number 1 when he is the guy that the other team is focussed on trying to take away. I always go back to the Vikings actually when Diggs and Thielen were there together and Thielen invariably had more production and long before he was a Bill I had arguments on this forum that Stefon Diggs was the #1 there (around the time they both got paid) because when you watched the games he was the guy teams were gameplanning to take away. They were happy to let Cousins have Thielen and move the chains they didn't want him to have Diggs and hurt people. 

 

Kelce has definitely been a #1 for KC. Gronk was a #1 for New England. You can win Superbowls without one though. But I think the collection of attributes you do have better be strong. The Flacco Ravens always spring to mind. They had Torrey Smith as a vertical burner and Anquan Bolden as a big contested catch possession receiver (and a good tight end whose name now escapes me). Smith and Bolden were both #2s but they had such complimentary skillsets that the combination was sufficient. That's what the "draft two, big guy and speedster" advocates in the run up to the draft were on about. If they had taken (for example) Coleman AND Frankin (say in the spot they took Carter) they still wouldn't have a #1 but they'd have two guys with complimentary skillsets. 

 

My issue with where we are is less that we don't have a #1. It is that second only to the Chargers we have the least proven WR corps in the entire league. 

Edited April 29 by GunnerBill

[Buffalo_Stampede]

WR1 is someone that gets open consistently, no matter the coverage.

 

WR1 can come in all shapes and sizes, all speeds and positions. Outside WR is the typical WR1, but slots and TEs can also be WR1.

[BananaB]

I think right now #1 is off the table. Let’s hope Shakir can step up and handle a bigger workload. Beane is an idiot. He put the same faith in McKenzie and Gabe, both were disappointments. He even doubled down on Gabe last year blaming his ankle injury the year before. Total neglect of the WR position at this point. ***** brutal. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 minutes ago, BananaB said:

I think right now #1 is off the table. Let’s hope Shakir can step up and handle a bigger workload. Beane is an idiot. He put the same faith in McKenzie and Gabe, both were disappointments. He even doubled down on Gabe last year blaming his ankle injury the year before. Total neglect of the WR position at this point. ***** brutal. 

Davis was the 3rd or 4th WR after being drafted in 2020. He was developing into WR2 very nicely.

Slot WR was the position most in need of young talent. Beasley turned 31 in 2020. We had nothing behind him. Rondale Moore and Elijah Moore were the hot names in the 2021 draft. Both would’ve been excellent prospects to replace Beasley. They took Rousseau. They probably made the right pick there. 
 

Before the 2022 season we felt very good about Diggs and Davis as WR1 and WR2 for now and the future. They needed a slot WR now with Beasley finished. They weren’t prepared to replace Beasley. There really wasn’t an opportunity to draft a slot WR early that year. Skyy Moore was talked about a lot in the 2nd. They could’ve traded up in the 2nd for Moore.  Instead they doubled down on edge. They did however draft Shakir that year, but they didn’t play him much. They went with McKenzie after Crowder went down. 

 

In 2022 Davis failed to take a leap forward after his historic playoff game vs KC. His ankle injury definitely covered up his failure. Gave him an excuse. Bills were not aggressive enough to replace him or bring in competition. Instead, in the 2023 draft they took a TE to play in the slot. Still trying to find a slot WR, even though Shakir was here. They liked Shakir, but didn’t trust him yet. McKenzie was popular, maybe that was the reason he played over Shakir.

 

I think they wanted WR Addison but thought he might fall to them. I’m not sure if they saw Addison as a slot or an outside WR though. I don’t think they saw him as a Davis replacement. He was more like Diggs or a slot WR.

 

What I’m saying is I don’t think there was a real opportunity to draft a Davis replacement in the 1st or 2nd without a massive trade up.

They could’ve drafted a developmental guy in the middle rounds, but that probably doesn’t satisfy what people wanted.

2022 free agency was a possibility to add a legit WR. They gave Von $120 million. They definitely could’ve dipped into free agency to replace Davis but at that point he was coming off his historic playoff game. They likely would’ve signed Christian Kirk for the slot if they added a WR. 
 

2023 was probably the best chance to replace Davis with a free agent WR. Hopkins was the opportunity. They didn’t do it for whatever reason.

 

I dont think Davis was a failed WR2. He did produce some decent numbers. I think the biggest failure at WR up until this year was how they handled slot WR.
 

In 2024 they need someone to step up at both outside spots and slot.  We’ll see what happens.

 

 

[BananaB]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Davis was the 3rd or 4th WR after being drafted in 2020. He was developing into WR2 very nicely.

Slot WR was the position most in need of young talent. Beasley turned 31 in 2020. We had nothing behind him. Rondale Moore and Elijah Moore were the hot names in the 2021 draft. Both would’ve been excellent prospects to replace Beasley. They took Rousseau. They probably made the right pick there. 
 

Before the 2022 season we felt very good about Diggs and Davis as WR1 and WR2 for now and the future. They needed a slot WR now with Beasley finished. They weren’t prepared to replace Beasley. There really wasn’t an opportunity to draft a slot WR early that year. Skyy Moore was talked about a lot in the 2nd. They could’ve traded up in the 2nd for Moore.  Instead they doubled down on edge. They did however draft Shakir that year, but they didn’t play him much. They went with McKenzie after Crowder went down. 

 

In 2022 Davis failed to take a leap forward after his historic playoff game vs KC. His ankle injury definitely covered up his failure. Gave him an excuse. Bills were not aggressive enough to replace him or bring in competition. Instead, in the 2023 draft they took a TE to play in the slot. Still trying to find a slot WR, even though Shakir was here. They liked Shakir, but didn’t trust him yet. McKenzie was popular, maybe that was the reason he played over Shakir.

 

I think they wanted WR Addison but thought he might fall to them. I’m not sure if they saw Addison as a slot or an outside WR though. I don’t think they saw him as a Davis replacement. He was more like Diggs or a slot WR.

 

What I’m saying is I don’t think there was a real opportunity to draft a Davis replacement in the 1st or 2nd without a massive trade up.

They could’ve drafted a developmental guy in the middle rounds, but that probably doesn’t satisfy what people wanted.

2022 free agency was a possibility to add a legit WR. They gave Von $120 million. They definitely could’ve dipped into free agency to replace Davis but at that point he was coming off his historic playoff game. They likely would’ve signed Christian Kirk for the slot if they added a WR. 
 

2023 was probably the best chance to replace Davis with a free agent WR. Hopkins was the opportunity. They didn’t do it for whatever reason.

 

I dont think Davis was a failed WR2. He did produce some decent numbers. I think the biggest failure at WR up until this year was how they handled slot WR.
 

In 2024 they need someone to step up at both outside spots and slot.  We’ll see what happens.

 

 

Shakir is in the exact same situation as Davis was 2 years. The only difference in this situation is we don’t have a legit #1 WR like we did two years ago. If this doesn’t work out it’s gonna be worse than the past 2 years.  The draft was heavy at WR and they took one. If Coleman has a slow transition this team is *****. 
 

Terrible management 

 

Davis was a failed #2. He was super inconsistent despite having a few big games. 

Edited April 29 by BananaB

[SoonerBillsFan]

11 hours ago, Herc11 said:

A better term would be #1 target. As we know, Brady had Gronk and Pat had Kelce. They aren't WR, but they give the same benefit as a #1 WR. 

 

A true #1 target is someone another team has to scheme for. This person is open even when they are not open. Contested catches, reliable week in and week out. Routinely beats their coverage. They are going to get you 1200+ yards and ~10 TDs a year.

 

Is there even any examples of this actually being done?

Great post.  And I think the Ravens did it last year?

 

I agree with where the OP is going. If you have 5-6 targets totalling 4500-5000 yards, it's still 5000 yards.  Let's say Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Kincaid all get 800 yards each it's 4000 yards.  And it makes it a gripe to game plan on just one guy, because on any play they can all switch positions.  And that's not counting yards from our RB Corp.  

[oldmanfan]

29 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Shakir is in the exact same situation as Davis was 2 years. The only difference in this situation is we don’t have a legit #1 WR like we did two years ago. If this doesn’t work out it’s gonna be worse than the past 2 years.  The draft was heavy at WR and they took one. If Coleman has a slow transition this team is *****. 
 

Terrible management 

 

Davis was a failed #2. He was super inconsistent despite having a few big games. 

Again, what is a “legit # 1 WR”?    I look at the two teams in the Super Bowl last year.  Did either of them have a WR that was a legit #1 WR?  Or did they have a great TE like the chiefs, or a good collection of WRs and a good TE like the Niners?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

31 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Shakir is in the exact same situation as Davis was 2 years. The only difference in this situation is we don’t have a legit #1 WR like we did two years ago. If this doesn’t work out it’s gonna be worse than the past 2 years.  The draft was heavy at WR and they took one. If Coleman has a slow transition this team is *****. 
 

Terrible management 

 

Davis was a failed #2. He was super inconsistent despite having a few big games. 

I really felt trading Diggs was the right move but I also felt if they traded Diggs it meant they were going all out to replace him. Meaning double dipping at WR in the 1st and 2nd, or trading up.

 

I agree, Shakir is in a similar spot as Davis. Right now it’s scary because we don’t have a known dependable top target either. I do think Kincaid can be that guy. He can be a 100 catch 1100 yard target. But who knows. He has that type of ability though.

[Fan in Chicago]

17 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Again, what is a “legit # 1 WR”?    I look at the two teams in the Super Bowl last year.  Did either of them have a WR that was a legit #1 WR?  Or did they have a great TE like the chiefs, or a good collection of WRs and a good TE like the Niners?

This question has been more than adequately answered by @Beck Water @GunnerBilland @Thrivefourfive. 

 

I am sensing that you are looking for some sort of support that Kincaid is that player. He isn't and shouldn't be. We need a WR who is fast enough and gains separation down the field to challenge defenses. Kincaid will be a good one but not a substitute. Just because the Chiefs made it work (more out of necessity) doesn't mean we should strive to emulate them

[Governor]

9 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

Prime Julio was pretty good 

Yeah he was pretty good. When I think of Randy Moss I go back to that Thanksgiving Dallas game (his rookie season 98?) where he just exploded on them.