Beane Discusses Draft Strategy w/ Pat McAfee

[Alphadawg7]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

My point pertains to this draft. Most drafts won't have this many high quality WR prospects available at the end of the 1st round. I'm not criticizing the Rousseau pick in that particular draft, I'm saying that if we took a Rousseau equivalent while passing on say a Kincaid equivalent we would ultimately be disappointed. And in this draft class specifically there are going to be WRs taken somewhere between 28 and 60 that become high impact starters. I know this almost with complete certainty. I am not nearly as certain that a pass rusher or any other position on defense is going to have a high impact starter taken in that range in the draft.

 

 

I would agree with you if we didn't already have an impressive arsenal of weapons for Josh between Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, and even Cook to throw to.  Like if Diggs had actually been traded (which he isn't going to be) and we needed badly to replace Josh's top weapon.  

 

And lets realistically look at who will be there at 28:  McConkey, Coleman, Franklin, Legette, Pearsall...possibly Mitchell and/or Worthy.  Those are widely seen as the next best 7 WRs on the board in no particular order after the big 4.  That group is all closely graded together...and the order in which they are ranked varies widely based on who you talk to.  So for a visual example...just gonna make up a numbers ranking system of 0.0 to 10.0 that Beane puts as a grade.  

 

What if a player at another position of need (say a DE) has 9.2 grade at 28 and the next best guy at that same position has a 7.9 grade.  Now the best WR left on the board has an 8.7 and of the 7 WR's listed above they are all tightly graded from 8.5 to 8.7 amongst themselves. 

 

Wouldn't you agree that it would be absolutely best to take the 9.2 player and then grab say even the 8.5 WR over reaching for say the 8.7 WR and being stuck with the 7.9 guy at the other position for our first 2 rounds?

 

Not only is reaching a bad draft strategy...but you exponentially compound that mistake when you reach in a draft that is rich at that position with guys will similar grades and potential that can be had a round or 2 later.  

 

That is my only point.  Don't pass up someone you have a much better grade on at another position of need to take a lesser WR, especially in a draft where you can get similar graded WR's a round or 2 later.  

Again, I do want a WR early...I am not advocating against that, only advocating against reaching 

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

So to be clear, I'm not guaranteeing that any WR we draft in the 1st round will be a 1,000+ yard WR. There is obviously a chance they will be a complete and utter bust. That is the risk of any pick.

 

My point is that if you assume you end up decently happy with the 1st round pick - not a bust, not a superstar, just a solid overall 1st round pick - if that player is a WR their impact is likely to be higher than any other position. Ideally a WR we take in the 1st round would get 1,500+ yards in a season at some point, but a good baseline for a decent value pick in that spot would be 1,000 yards by their sophomore season.

 

I'll use Kincaid and Rousseau as examples. Kincaid had a solid rookie season. No one would say he set the league on fire. But that solid rookie season translated into franchise records, a clear measurable impact on the offense, and a TD in a playoff game. Rousseau on the other hand has been a solid player since entering the league. I haven't felt that kind of impact from him yet. His playoff highlight was grazing Mahomes' shoulder on a play that ended in a 1st down.

 

To maximize the likelihood that the 1st round pick will have a measurably high impact on the team, it has to be a WR. Playing in an offense with Allen and a decent mix of supporting talent means their floor will be higher than any other position we can take.

I still think 1,000 yards in their 2nd year is lofty. We have a lot of mouths to feed and Kincaids market share is going to grow especially picking at 28. 
 

2022 draft 

London-No

Wilson- Yes

Olave-Yes

Williams- No

Dotson- No

Burks- No

Watson- No

Metchie- No

Thornton- No

Pickens- Yes

Pierce- No

Moore- No

 

3 out of 12 have hit 1,000 and only 1 would have been available 

 

Most guys who have hit 1,000 yards are guys who have gone in the top 15 of the draft. I went through others 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I still think 1,000 yards in their 2nd year is lofty.

 

Adam Thielen got 1,000 yards last year, at the age of 33, playing in a hilariously awful passing offense. It really isn't that hard, especially when you have an elite QB throwing you the ball. The Bills just haven't made a serious effort to get a 1,000 yard caliber WR since 2020.

 

By putting together that list of other WRs you're completely missing my point. In our offense with our QB a 1st round WR is most likely to end up being a high impact high value pick. If you draft them to a team led by Sam Howell or Mason Rudolph, probably not.

 

@Kirby Jacksonsaid it best in another thread. If we are going to win a Super Bowl, it will be because of Josh Allen. Not because of our DL rotation. We have to start doing everything we can to maximize Allen's abilities on the field because his career will be gone before we know it. You do that by adding weapons when the opportunity is there. If this 1st round class doesn't represent that kind of opportunity, none of them ever will.

 

FWIW I believe Beane knows this. He can go on McAfee and make a big show about how he's going to wait to take deeper position groups (like WR) later in the draft. His actions tell me otherwise. He called Curtis Samuel a "weapon," not a WR. He hasn't added a legitimate outside WR in FA. He didn't restructure Diggs' contract. They've met with all of the 2nd tier WR prospects. All of this evidence points to him drafting a WR high with the intention of them being our future #1.

[gonzo1105]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Adam Thielen got 1,000 yards last year, at the age of 33, playing in a hilariously awful passing offense. It really isn't that hard, especially when you have an elite QB throwing you the ball. The Bills just haven't made a serious effort to get a 1,000 yard caliber WR since 2020.

 

By putting together that list of other WRs you're completely missing my point. In our offense with our QB a 1st round WR is most likely to end up being a high impact high value pick. If you draft them to a team led by Sam Howell or Mason Rudolph, probably not.

 

@Kirby Jacksonsaid it best in another thread. If we are going to win a Super Bowl, it will be because of Josh Allen. Not because of our DL rotation. We have to start doing everything we can to maximize Allen's abilities on the field because his career will be gone before we know it. You do that by adding weapons when the opportunity is there. If this 1st round class doesn't represent that kind of opportunity, none of them ever will.

 

FWIW I believe Beane knows this. He can go on McAfee and make a big show about how he's going to wait to take deeper position groups (like WR) later in the draft. His actions tell me otherwise. He called Curtis Samuel a "weapon," not a WR. He hasn't added a legitimate outside WR in FA. He didn't restructure Diggs' contract. They've met with all of the 2nd tier WR prospects. All of this evidence points to him drafting a WR high with the intention of them being our future #1.

I mentioned this exact point to you when your 27 WRs and half of them are first rounders argument was about so you could prove your point about taking a 1st round WR instead of another position. I said the exact same thing to you that having a QB who is above average makes WR play significantly better when I said those 27 most of them either had great QB play or were the only viable weapon on their team(Theilen) 
 

If your making my point now , that you brushed over then my argument would be well if we have Josh Allen with our offense than we can wait in a really heavy draft at WR waiting until round 2 and still get an impact WR. 

[billybrew1]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

Bills Scoring Offense rankings the past four seasons:

2nd 

3rd

2nd

6th


Bills Scoring Defense rankings the past four seasons:

16th

1st

2nd

4th

The Bills have won the second most games in the league since 2020.

The Bills have been top 6 in preseason Super Bowl odds the past four seasons.

Winning more games than everyone but the Chiefs, being consistently above average on both offense and defense, and being considered one of the five or six best teams in the league year in and year out seems like an indication that the team's GM is fairly good at his job.

Looking at each move in a vacuum -- "Beane failed to draft impact player X", "Beane failed to burnish positional group X with the draft capital I would've liked" -- ignores the reality of looking at the team as a whole: The Buffalo Bills have been very good for several years now. It also fails to mention the moves he's made that have been SUCCESSES.

Ultimately, to suggest that the man in charge of building the roster for a team this consistently good is, himself, bad at his job, well...I strongly disagree.



 

The top two reasons we have been so good under McBeane….

1) we got Josh Allen. Which is starting to look like we lucked out as we never drafted another player anything like him since….

And #2 - Beane is very fortunate he has an owner willing to spend way over the cap and this has covered up a myriad of mistakes.

bonus third reason: it seems now that we really lucked out signing Hyde and Poyer and drafting very well in 2017….

Beane is by no terrible but he is by no means great either…. It seems lucky now as we never came close to signing FAs like them again. Morse was really good but he was paid a super amount. And last year Beane did very well with our LG from Dallas….But that signing still doesn’t compare to Hyde and Poyer, not yet at least….

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Adam Thielen got 1,000 yards last year, at the age of 33, playing in a hilariously awful passing offense. It really isn't that hard, especially when you have an elite QB throwing you the ball. The Bills just haven't made a serious effort to get a 1,000 yard caliber WR since 2020.

 

By putting together that list of other WRs you're completely missing my point. In our offense with our QB a 1st round WR is most likely to end up being a high impact high value pick. If you draft them to a team led by Sam Howell or Mason Rudolph, probably not.

 

@Kirby Jacksonsaid it best in another thread. If we are going to win a Super Bowl, it will be because of Josh Allen. Not because of our DL rotation. We have to start doing everything we can to maximize Allen's abilities on the field because his career will be gone before we know it. You do that by adding weapons when the opportunity is there. If this 1st round class doesn't represent that kind of opportunity, none of them ever will.

 

FWIW I believe Beane knows this. He can go on McAfee and make a big show about how he's going to wait to take deeper position groups (like WR) later in the draft. His actions tell me otherwise. He called Curtis Samuel a "weapon," not a WR. He hasn't added a legitimate outside WR in FA. He didn't restructure Diggs' contract. They've met with all of the 2nd tier WR prospects. All of this evidence points to him drafting a WR high with the intention of them being our future #1.

I hope so

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Westside said:

Is this your own view? Did Beane call and tell you his plan? Did you concoct this theory?

My creation based on what he's said year after year.  It's no mystery.  

[MJS]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Not really. He moves up for one of the last remaining players with a 1st round grade. Of  course I believe the Allen trade was different. That's a lot different than saying "I need a ....." and moving up to where they are being taken. He has pretty much stayed true to his board and that's why people here keep yelling about certain picks at spots.

The Elam pick was clearly him targeting a position, in my opinion. And you can make the case for others as well, like Groot and Oliver. I'm sure they had high grades on those players, but they were also positions of need.

[3rdand12]

6 hours ago, wjag said:

Hopefully Center is on their need list...  Repurposing guys who played guard to be center is liking putting putty in dam holes.

It should be

Even if he is in house now

they need to nail that position post Morse

Bigger stronger please

[3rdand12]

6 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

What we think McBeane will do:

 

1st: WR

2nd: S

4th: C

4th: WR

 

What McBeane will do:

 

1st: DT

2nd: DE

4th: S

4th: CB

 

 

 

 

well , perhaps not.

WR is a priority. which one (s) and when ? 

 we shall se what we shall see

DT also might be up there for hims

 

 

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but you have a very unrealistic expectation if you assume any first round WR will be an "easy button to 1000 yard season".  Not only are the odds against that, but its probably more realistic to say a rookie elsewhere has less competition for snaps than any WR we draft who still has to share the targets with Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook, and even Knox.  

 

Let me first be clear...I also WANT us to get a WR early this draft, in fact, I am hoping we make a small move up and go get Thomas.  This is a great shot at getting an heir to Diggs, and I am all for it.  But I also don't want to reach for a WR either for just the sake of taking one.  

 

But your 1000 yard easy button comments is just not realistic unless injuries pave the way for it.  Not only do we typically bring rookies along slowly unless we have no choice, but Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, Cook, and Knox are all going to get their targets and without injuries creating opportunities, any rookie we draft is most likely to put up 500-700 yards at best this season.  

 

Again, I am also wanting to go WR and even trade up for Thomas.  However, I don't want to reach for someone either at 28 just for the sake of taking a WR, reaching is never a sound draft strategy.  

Stop Making Sense

 any player who is on the board and is dropping , you have to look twice or thrice again.
You said reach

its self explanatory.

get two twos ideally

But its a crazy game ,the draft

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I would agree with you if we didn't already have an impressive arsenal of weapons for Josh between Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, and even Cook to throw to.  Like if Diggs had actually been traded (which he isn't going to be) and we needed badly to replace Josh's top weapon.  

 

And lets realistically look at who will be there at 28:  McConkey, Coleman, Franklin, Legette, Pearsall...possibly Mitchell and/or Worthy.  Those are widely seen as the next best 7 WRs on the board in no particular order after the big 4.  That group is all closely graded together...and the order in which they are ranked varies widely based on who you talk to.  So for a visual example...just gonna make up a numbers ranking system of 0.0 to 10.0 that Beane puts as a grade.  

 

What if a player at another position of need (say a DE) has 9.2 grade at 28 and the next best guy at that same position has a 7.9 grade.  Now the best WR left on the board has an 8.7 and of the 7 WR's listed above they are all tightly graded from 8.5 to 8.7 amongst themselves. 

 

Wouldn't you agree that it would be absolutely best to take the 9.2 player and then grab say even the 8.5 WR over reaching for say the 8.7 WR and being stuck with the 7.9 guy at the other position for our first 2 rounds?

 

Not only is reaching a bad draft strategy...but you exponentially compound that mistake when you reach in a draft that is rich at that position with guys will similar grades and potential that can be had a round or 2 later.  

 

That is my only point.  Don't pass up someone you have a much better grade on at another position of need to take a lesser WR, especially in a draft where you can get similar graded WR's a round or 2 later.  

Again, I do want a WR early...I am not advocating against that, only advocating against reaching 

depends on the fit.
WR is a  broad term.
But yea you know that
 no one wants Beanes to over extend.
But moving up and down for  the second round , well. Hows that sound to ya

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:

depends on the fit.
WR is a  broad term.
But yea you know that
 no one wants Beanes to over extend.
But moving up and down for  the second round , well. Hows that sound to ya

I’m hoping we move up in first and get Thomas…or Odunze it he slides close enough because of an early QB run and someone like Cowboys over drafts Worthy ahead of Odunze.  I’m also ok moving back from 28 and taking a WR and picking up maybe a 3rd in doing so.  I’m also fine going BPA if it’s another position and then maybe trading up in the 2nd to go get our guy.

 

Draft is so deep and rich at WR, so I’m good with a number of scenarios.  I don’t feel like it’s gotta be one particular way this year.

[BigAl2526]

That's pretty much what I would have expected of Beane, and it is the right philosophy.  The question is, what positions are a greater need than WR.  There is one obvious answer to me, safety.  I don't think Taylor Rapp is a viable starter in Buffalo's defense.  He's a big hitter, but he can't cover.  If you start at safety for Sean McDermott, you had better be able to cover.   Cooper DeJean has been primarily a cornerback.  If the Bills see him as a safety, they might feel he has enough value at 

#28. Other than DeJean, some see Tyler Nubin as a first round safety.  I think the value is dubious for him.  He's got decent height, but overall, he's average or below average in a lot of metrics and he has weaknesses in his game.  Frankly, he's a lot like Taylor Rapp. I don't think the Bills pick him.   No other safety is even close to a first round value. 

 

What other position represent greater need than WR?  One can make a case for defensive tackle.  The top 1 tech, T'Vondre Sweat is probably a second round value, though there's a chance he could go in the first round.  I think the signing of Austin Johnson, who has had less than a stellar career, stems from Buffalo's recognition that the one tech market in the draft stinks.  I think they are gambling that a position change can revive his career.  He's got the size and physical traits to be a solid player.  There looks to be a couple first round worthy 3 tech DTs in the draft.  Byron Murphy is unlikely to be on the board when the Bills pick.  Jer'Zhan Newton may or may not be available when the Bills pick.  The Bills might consider picking him to be in rotation with Ed Oliver. 

 

At defensive end, Buffalo hasn't given up on Rousseau.  They also re-signed Epenesa and renegotiated Von Miller's deal.  None of them set the league on fire in 2023.  I'm thinking the Bills thought the chemistry they lost with the injury to Miller accounts for the less impressive than hoped for performance.    If there were a long, bendy and quick defensive end type with elite potential Buffalo might jump on him.  The closest thing to that who might be available is Chop Robinson.  He's not perfect.  Latu and Verse will be gone.  Robinson is the fastest of the bunch, but he's also the most undersized at 6'3" and not as bendy as you'd like for a smallish DE.  

 

Buffalo could stand to upgrade depth on the offensive line, but hardly sounds like a first round caliber need.  They could stand to have a bit more depth at RB, but that's not happening at #28.  The Bills could always use more at CB.  They've got two starters outside in Benford and Douglas, an elite slot guy in Taron Johnson, disappointing former first round pick Kaiir Elan and utility man Cam Lewis.  They've also got a handful of guys under reserve futures contracts.  The Bills still some hopeful that Elam can overcome the slow start to his career, including the injury bug.  It's a position where the Bills could pick a player who is a compelling value in round 1, but I don't think they're looking for a CB early by any means.

 

That's about it.  I can easily see where circumstances could drop a WR with elite potential in Buffalo's lap.  There will be different opinions on which one.  Some will be enamored of Worthy's combine record 40 time.  His weight scares me.  He had a great freshmen year, but dropped off last season.  There is McConkey.  He's a sub 4.4 guy and had moderate production at Georgia.  I'm guessing he's never been a #1 receiver in college.  I imagine he could be a #1 receiver in the right situation, but he looks more like a perpetual #2.  Most don't think Troy Franklin has a first round value, but he probably has as much claim as some others.   He has good height, though he's a bit skinny.  He doesn't quite have sub 4.4 speed, but he's close, and he was super productive in his last year of college.  I wouldn't be horrified if the Bills picked him.  My pick among the receivers who might be available when Buffalo picks is Adonai Mitchell.  He has home run speed, good size. He's not as polished are receivers who will be picked earlier, but he has plenty of upside I can also imagine the draft falling in a way where Buffalo could pick Jer'Zhan Newton or Cooper DeJean.  There is a chance they'd go for Robinson.  I don't see anything else in the cards.  

[Punching Bag]

10 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Sounded like we're drafting 11 WRs to me.

 

Only if we trade down a few times to get extra picks for we know no UDFA WR will WANT to go to Buffalo with Buffalo weather in fall and a QB who throws so hard.

[Punching Bag]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

Ultimately, to suggest that the man in charge of building the roster for a team this consistently good is, himself, bad at his job, well...I strongly disagree.

 

Don't confuse irrational ranters with logic. I have heard people talk like all of the offense players in draft are better than all of the defense players in draft so if Beane does not use top 5 picks including some they need to trade next years picks for Beane is a finger puppet of Coach McD and just picking defense players for him.  Any offense players picked are going to be converted to defense like George Wilson was.

 

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Beane WR Freight Train

 

Allen A-Bomb offense ignite

 

60, 128, 2025 1st, 3rd for SEA 16

Diggs, 133, 2025 4th for DAL 24 

 

16. BTJ

24. XL

28. XW 

 

🤯 😏 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I mentioned this exact point to you when your 27 WRs and half of them are first rounders argument was about so you could prove your point about taking a 1st round WR instead of another position. I said the exact same thing to you that having a QB who is above average makes WR play significantly better when I said those 27 most of them either had great QB play or were the only viable weapon on their team(Theilen) 
 

If your making my point now , that you brushed over then my argument would be well if we have Josh Allen with our offense than we can wait in a really heavy draft at WR waiting until round 2 and still get an impact WR. 

 

 

Can you quantify what, exactly, that you are "waiting" for?  

 

And if the process that's brought you to this conclusion is that the Bills can be a great passing team with an average WR corps, think again.

 

The Bills have finished just 9th-11th in passing yards each of the last 3 seasons and as a result JA17 has had to take it on himself to will the team to victory by any means necessary.   He has had to turn into RB2 in the second half of each season since the Bills WR corp peaked in the first half of 2020.  

 

WR is a problem that they should have been more serious about addressing since the END of the 2020 season finished with their undersized receiving corps falling on it's face in the playoffs(due both to wear and tear and their lack of physicality/size at a time when the refs put away the flags).

 

They are at the point now where they need to get an X receiver AND draft a guy to replace Diggs in 2025(or maybe late 2024 if he falls off again).

 

And I know @Alphadawg7 thinks Shakir can just move outside and get 80 more targets and become WR1 but SO MANY others blindly thought the same way about Gabe Davis getting an expanded role.    We just don't know what a 40-50 target guy is going to look like getting double work.   And he's 24 months from free agency too.

 

The reality is that it's long overdue to get serious about adding high-end talent to this WR corps and NOW is the time because it's an excellent WR draft.   

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27 by BADOLBILZ

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And I know @Alphadawg7 thinks Shakir can just move outside and get 80 more targets and become WR1 but SO MANY others blindly thought the same way about Gabe Davis getting an expanded role.    We just don't know what a 40-50 target guy is going to look like getting double work.   And he's 24 months from free agency too.

 

The reality is that it's long overdue to get serious about adding high-end talent to this WR corps and NOW is the time because it's an excellent WR draft.   

 

 

 

 

Lol, except I never once said that Shakir is going to move outside and take on 80 more targets than the 45 he got this year which would mean he would get  125 targets this year…never gonna happen for anyone outside of Diggs unless injuries change the target landscape.

 

I have repeatedly said that for as long as Diggs is here, no one is getting 100+ targets because Diggs is gonna get his and then the ball is gonna get spread around between Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, even Cook plus whatever rookie we draft.  

 

[ndirish1978]

I love Beane. That said, I don't hace confidence that there will be difference making WRs near pick 28 and I don't see us hitting on an early rd DE because frankly I don't have confidence in this FO's ability to identify and draft DLmen. A rotational DT plays 40-50% of the snaps and is involved in every single play they are on the field for. A backup WR, which is what I believe will be left around 28, can run dozens of routes and will realistically affect 4-6 plays with catches and maybe a couple more if they can block well. Unless we get a gift dropped in our lap I don't really see how a top 5-10 WR is better for our team than a rotational piece with upside. We are going to put Shakir, Samuel and Diggs out there half the plays and drop Shakir to put in another TE in 12 personnel. There are realistically 4 WRs that could come in and convince this staff to sit Shakir or Samuel and we're not sniffing them barring a miracle.  

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lol, except I never once said that Shakir is going to move outside and take on 80 more targets than the 45 he got this year which would mean he would get  125 targets this year…never gonna happen for anyone outside of Diggs unless injuries change the target landscape.

 

I have repeatedly said that for as long as Diggs is here, no one is getting 100+ targets because Diggs is gonna get his and then the ball is gonna get spread around between Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, even Cook plus whatever rookie we draft.  

 

 

 

"Lol, expect".........I said you think he CAN.

 

I never said you think that WILL happen.   Not withstanding your opinion that he's blocking Shakir's ascension to WR1.