Beane Discusses Draft Strategy w/ Pat McAfee

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Ok, thanks for the response.   I read it all.   I don't feel much clearer about your opinion.   Like if you think he's an NFL WR1.   Your guesstimates for him are similar to mine but I am maybe not as impressed by that Cole Beasley level production bar from the slot.  He is a really tough evaluation though because there just aren't any comps I can think of so I don't blame you for not really being able to nail it down either.    

 

I don't think he's a WR1.   I just don't see him playing outside full time and most WR1 do.  The only really dedicated slot guy who fits that profile as WR1 is Kupp and how he wins is pretty unique to Kupp.   Obviously Shakir's gift is as a RAC machine which is awesome but I am just not sure how that projects with A LOT more targets as opposed to how Kupp did it when healthy.     I think the Bills did a great job keeping Shakir's throws short to intermediate last year after misusing him as sort of an inside-outside guy as a rookie.   They used Gabe Davis well as a low target option early in his career too though.

 

  I am excited about his potential but I am glad they added Samuel.   Samuel is a much better option to compete in the slot than the tiring Emmanuel Sanders was as a boundary WR.   Sanders was basically a tomato can they set up for Gabe to knock over.    

shakir strikes me as lance moore of saints yesteryear a bit. Both in general skill set and potential usage as a productive WR2-WR3 in am offense with weapons out of the backfield and at TE

 

ideally not the center of attention but super slippery as the non focal point 

I don’t see him as a kupp but think if held in the right role, with the right offense - he could be super productive. I think this era of nfl makes those guys harder and harder to keep in those successful auxiliary roles though as someone wants to pay them more than you can pay as a role player 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, NoSaint said:

shakir strikes me as lance moore of saints yesteryear a bit. Both in general skill set and potential usage as a productive WR2-WR3 in am offense with weapons out of the backfield and at TE

 

ideally not the center of attention but super slippery as the non focal point 

I don’t see him as a kupp but think if held in the right role, with the right offense - he could be super productive. I think this era of nfl makes those guys harder and harder to keep in those successful auxiliary roles though as someone wants to pay them more than you can pay as a role player 

 

 

 

Yeah that's a good call on Lance Moore and that kind of usage.   Forgot all about him.   He was really good in that kinda' role.  

[HomeskillitMoorman]

On 3/26/2024 at 2:37 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

Because he has hit on so many defensive picks esp. The DL and ignored giving our Franchise QB a 1st round talent at WR right?

 

But hey he is here to stay, so it is what it is.

I like Beane but I don’t know if I’d call him one of the best. Obviously he hit big on 17 and Josh has masked a lot of his other shortcomings. 
 

Ultimately with an elite QB, which he did bring in to his credit, we haven’t won anything and have had 3 straight division round exits…the expectation should really be there to better than just stagnant. 
 

But as with McD, I don’t think that exists. If we have a 4th straight early exit disappointment, I think we’ll probably see the same level of support. 

[BADOLBILZ]

On 3/26/2024 at 2:54 PM, Logic said:

One thing is for sure: Even WITH the player exodus and lean free agency period, they won't be using all 11 picks. There's just no way. Expect movement up and down the board.

 

 

 

I also doubt the Bills will use all 11 picks because McBeane like their veteran reserves..........but I think we have become conditioned to just assuming that he will draft a small amount of players without necessarily looking at the potential jobs available:

 

1 RB........this is basically a need

1 QB.......definitely could see a rookie beating out Trubisky,  who I think is toast.

2-3 WR.........this position they definitely need multiple

1 TE

2-3 OL..........I will be disappointed if not AT LEAST 2.   Preferably 3.

1-2 DT........with 3 30 somethings at DT they need youth

1 DE

1-2 LB........I don't think we can count on Spector to stay healthy so need a 5th LB at least

1-2 CB.......this draft is too good at CB to not come away with at least 1 high ceiling guy on day 3

1-2 S.........obvious need

 

I think there are 11 or more potential openings for rookies on this year's cap-strapped roster.    The Rams drafted 14 players last year and made a big jump into contention.   Chiefs took 10 in 2022 and made themselves better largely thru that volume of rookie additions.    The Bills using all those picks isn't Beane's MO but it's a strategy that's been paying dividends for other good organizations.

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I also doubt the Bills will use all 11 picks because McBeane like their veteran reserves..........but I think we have become conditioned to just assuming that he will draft a small amount of players without necessarily looking at the potential jobs available:

 

1 RB........this is basically a need

1 QB.......definitely could see a rookie beating out Trubisky,  who I think is toast.

2-3 WR.........this position they definitely need multiple

1 TE

2-3 OL..........I will be disappointed if not AT LEAST 2.   Preferably 3.

1-2 DT........with 3 30 somethings at DT they need youth

1 DE

1-2 LB........I don't think we can count on Spector to stay healthy so need a 5th LB at least

1-2 CB.......this draft is too good at CB to not come away with at least 1 high ceiling guy on day 3

1-2 S.........obvious need

 

I think there are 11 or more potential openings for rookies on this year's cap-strapped roster.    The Rams drafted 14 players last year and made a big jump into contention.   Chiefs took 10 in 2022 and made themselves better largely thru that volume of rookie additions.    The Bills using all those picks isn't Beane's MO but it's a strategy that's been paying dividends for other good organizations.

I agree with the overall point of this post.

I would argue that TE doesn't belong on a list of "potential jobs available", with Kincaid, Knox, and Morris all in-house and them rarely carrying more than three. I can certainly see an UDFA or two for camp or the practice squad, but that's about it.

I'd also be very surprised if they took a QB, and even MORE surprised if that QB beat out Trubisky, given what they're paying him and how much Beane and McD seem to believe in him.

Lastly, while I'd love to see three WRs taken, I think two is the sweet spot there. We can assume Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, and Hollins are locks, and I doubt they're ready to give up on Shorter. Even if they ARE ready to give up on Shorter, I don't see room for more than two rookie WRs on the roster.

That's all picking nits, though. I agree with you that there are more spots available on this roster than usual, and that I wouldn't be against a larger youth movement. Unfortunately, given his history as head coach thus far, I don't think Sean McDermott necessarily shares our willingness to go so youth-heavy.

Edited March 29 by Logic

[OldTimer1960]

26 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

I like Beane but I don’t know if I’d call him one of the best. Obviously he hit big on 17 and Josh has masked a lot of his other shortcomings. 
 

Ultimately with an elite QB, which he did bring in to his credit, we haven’t won anything and have had 3 straight division round exits…the expectation should really be there to better than just stagnant. 
 

But as with McD, I don’t think that exists. If we have a 4th straight early exit disappointment, I think we’ll probably see the same level of support. 

The expectation that they are obviously doing something wrong if they haven’t won a SB is, in my opinion, unreasonable.  They have had one of the best teams in the league for several years.  It’s unfortunate that KC is a dominant team.

 

There have been many outstanding QBs that never won a SB and more that it took a long time to get theirs.  It is very hard to win a championship and the idea that somehow one more big move is all that was needed is questionable.  They might have been right on tack until Von tore up his knee….

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I also doubt the Bills will use all 11 picks because McBeane like their veteran reserves..........but I think we have become conditioned to just assuming that he will draft a small amount of players without necessarily looking at the potential jobs available:

 

1 RB........this is basically a need

1 QB.......definitely could see a rookie beating out Trubisky,  who I think is toast.

2-3 WR.........this position they definitely need multiple

1 TE

2-3 OL..........I will be disappointed if not AT LEAST 2.   Preferably 3.

1-2 DT........with 3 30 somethings at DT they need youth

1 DE

1-2 LB........I don't think we can count on Spector to stay healthy so need a 5th LB at least

1-2 CB.......this draft is too good at CB to not come away with at least 1 high ceiling guy on day 3

1-2 S.........obvious need

 

I think there are 11 or more potential openings for rookies on this year's cap-strapped roster.    The Rams drafted 14 players last year and made a big jump into contention.   Chiefs took 10 in 2022 and made themselves better largely thru that volume of rookie additions.    The Bills using all those picks isn't Beane's MO but it's a strategy that's been paying dividends for other good organizations.

Its a valid counter point , and fairly smart thinking

My concern is they have some priorities out of your list. So i agree with your said needs , where they get drafted often defines whether they are starters. and the Bills need a few starters and or soon to be difference makers.

 But who doesn't want a high ceiling CB etc   😇

 

Edited March 29 by 3rdand12

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Its a valid counter point , and fairly smart thinking

My concern is they have some priorities out of your list. So i agree with your said needs , where they get drafted often defines whether they are starters. and the Bills need a few starters and or soon to be difference makers.

 But who doesn't want a high ceiling CB etc   😇

 

 

It's a draft where they could definitely find another Christian Benford type late.   Deeper at CB than that 2022 draft, IMO.

[3rdand12]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's a draft where they could definitely find another Christian Benford type late.   Deeper at CB than that 2022 draft, IMO.

Good ! get two then 👍

[Bills aPHILLYate]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Ok, thanks for the response.   I read it all.   I don't feel much clearer about your opinion.   Like if you think he's an NFL WR1.   Your guesstimates for him are similar to mine but I am maybe not as impressed by that Cole Beasley level production bar from the slot.  He is a really tough evaluation though because there just aren't any comps I can think of so I don't blame you for not really being able to nail it down either.    

 

I don't think he's a WR1.   I just don't see him playing outside full time and most WR1 do.  The only really dedicated slot guy who fits that profile as WR1 is Kupp and how he wins is pretty unique to Kupp.   Obviously Shakir's gift is as a RAC machine which is awesome but I am just not sure how that projects with A LOT more targets as opposed to how Kupp did it when healthy.     I think the Bills did a great job keeping Shakir's throws short to intermediate last year after misusing him as sort of an inside-outside guy as a rookie.   They used Gabe Davis well as a low target option early in his career too though.

 

  I am excited about his potential but I am glad they added Samuel.   Samuel is a much better option to compete in the slot than the tiring Emmanuel Sanders was as a boundary WR.   Sanders was basically a tomato can they set up for Gabe to knock over.    

My comparison for Shakir is basically Robert Woods with a headstart on the QB play caveat. 

 

Not a definitive #1 or boundary WR...

Can lineup in numerous spots...

Has potential to consistently surpass 800yds (even cracking 1000 a couple times) on this team...

Potential to be an outstanding & effective complementary WR especially if he sees about 60+ targets...

 

I'm very high on him and hope he's a part of the WR core for the foreseeable future

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

See, now this is what I am talking about...great response...look at us now ha.

 

And I agree with most of this, this is a lot how I feel about him.  I am not going to say he can't be a WR1, I mean look at someone like Kupp.  No one expected him to emerge into what he is until he actually did a couple seasons ago.  

 

But I think its more likely he establishes himself as top end second WR on a team at some point.  I honestly don't know if he gets that chance in Buffalo, or anyone for that matter, the way Allen and the Bills like to spread the ball around outside Diggs with so many mouths to feed here in Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel and of course what rookie we draft and even Cook out of the backfield.  

 

However, once Diggs is done here (and could be as early as next year depending on how Diggs plays this season) I can see him really being the WR2 opposite whatever Rookie we take in this draft to be the heir to Diggs and Samuel playing out of the slot.  And I do think Shakir has the potential to be an excellent compliment to a WR1 here in the post Diggs era.  

 

Kupp is actually a very good comparison to him, not saying he will reach his level of success, but the type of WR they are.  And it is no surprise either because Shakir studies Kupp and patterns his game after Kupp.  

 

And spot on about about Sanders, agree with everything you said there and about Samuel as well.  

 

Kudos...

I guess had I just scrolled down 2 more posts I could've saved myself the trouble...

 

I completely agree with this take

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Bills aPHILLYate said:

My comparison for Shakir is basically Robert Woods with a headstart on the QB play caveat. 

 

Not a definitive #1 or boundary WR...

Can lineup in numerous spots...

Has potential to consistently surpass 800yds (even cracking 1000 a couple times) on this team...

Potential to be an outstanding & effective complementary WR especially if he sees about 60+ targets...

 

I'm very high on him and hope he's a part of the WR core for the foreseeable future

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you told me I could get a healthy Robert Woods who played with Josh Allen his whole career at 28 I’d take it

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Bills aPHILLYate said:

My comparison for Shakir is basically Robert Woods with a headstart on the QB play caveat. 

 

Not a definitive #1 or boundary WR...

Can lineup in numerous spots...

Has potential to consistently surpass 800yds (even cracking 1000 a couple times) on this team...

Potential to be an outstanding & effective complementary WR especially if he sees about 60+ targets...

 

I'm very high on him and hope he's a part of the WR core for the foreseeable future

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

don't see woods at all tbh

 

amendola is who he reminds he of

[Bills aPHILLYate]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

If you told me I could get a healthy Robert Woods who played with Josh Allen his whole career at 28 I’d take it

Tell me about it. I remember how I felt as soon as he had that 3 or 4 year run with the Rams. 

He turned out to be everything I was hoping for in Buffalo 

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

If you told me I could get a healthy Robert Woods who played with Josh Allen his whole career at 28 I’d take it

 

Well the good news is he is already on the team

 

Although not the same style of WR, but essentially talking about role potential, production, value, etc.  I actually think Shakir's ceiling is higher than Robert Woods overall career.  No guarantees he gets there, but I think he can have a better career than Woods potentially.  

Edited March 29 by Alphadawg7

[Bills aPHILLYate]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

don't see woods at all tbh

 

amendola is who he reminds he of

Fair enough. I was just trying to think of guys who were in the WR matrix of criteria; in which they aren't a 1, could be a 2 but not necessarily capped at a 3 or even a slot

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Bills aPHILLYate said:

Fair enough. I was just trying to think of guys who were in the WR matrix of criteria; in which they aren't a 1, could be a 2 but not necessarily capped at a 3 or even a slot

I think Woods' build/frame allowed him leverage that the stockier guys have to make up somewhere else...allowed him to play bigger and win in a diversity of situations

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

don't see woods at all tbh

 

amendola is who he reminds he of

 

 

I see Khalil Shakir wearing Robert Woods same uniform number.    And I think that's a big part of the reason we get Woods comps for him.   Woods was quite a deep threat at USC.   He tracks the ball well downfield but as a pro he had to settle for being more of an intermediate route runner due to modest size/speed.    Shakir doesn't track it well down field but is notably faster and is much better wrt YAC than Woods.   He's like a RB once he gets the ball.   I'd have to go back and watch Amendola.   

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I see Khalil Shakir wearing Robert Woods same uniform number.    And I think that's a big part of the reason we get Woods comps for him.   Woods was quite a deep threat at USC.   He tracks the ball well downfield but as a pro he had to settle for being more of an intermediate route runner due to modest size/speed.    Shakir doesn't track it well down field but is notably faster and is much better wrt YAC than Woods.   He's like a RB once he gets the ball.   I'd have to go back and watch Amendola.   

yeah there's a fluidity to Woods game that makes (i guess made now lol) him a really presentable target in that intermediate/MOF area

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

yeah there's a fluidity to Woods game that makes (i guess made now lol) him a really presentable target in that intermediate/MOF area

 

 

Robert Woods was literally the perfect WR for Jared Goff.   Goff knew he would be open on those intermediate routes so he could throw with anticipation confidently.   Woods was getting killed in Buffalo with EJ delivering late "hospital balls".    Had Woods talking to himself on the sideline like a lunatic.

[SoonerBillsFan]

9 hours ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

I like Beane but I don’t know if I’d call him one of the best. Obviously he hit big on 17 and Josh has masked a lot of his other shortcomings. 
 

Ultimately with an elite QB, which he did bring in to his credit, we haven’t won anything and have had 3 straight division round exits…the expectation should really be there to better than just stagnant. 
 

But as with McD, I don’t think that exists. If we have a 4th straight early exit disappointment, I think we’ll probably see the same level of support. 

I agree. Fans cling to him, but he hasn't hit on all the capital put into the DL, traded away an eventual all pro guard and passed on an all pro Center in the draft who was able to start as a rookie.

 

I really wish we had brought in different scouts this offseason, but it is what it is.