Dalton Kincaid Rookie Stats, reprise

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Low Positive said:

There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

 

I don't think it stems from the Elam situation.  I think it stems from fan frustration with players who weren't really pulling their weight (example: McKenzie as a slot receiver) and having seen a few flashes from Shakir, feeling he was so much better and it was just the coaches being stupid to not play him, instead of observing his drop rate and his low catch % and apparent route running mistakes and having a little faith that the coaches, professionals, might actually make better decisions than we fans.

[Freddie's Dead]

I was way off at 40, 450, 4.  I feel shame.

[Augie]

18 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I was way off at 40, 450, 4.  I feel shame.

 

Don’t feel bad, I had him as the Super Bowl MVP. We both missed, but I might have been a bit overly optimistic.  

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

You were 1 TD away from losing and gave me 4 to 1 odds. I’d take it again.

 

If Knox didn’t get hurt, and Dorsey doesn’t get fired, who knows?

If, if, if, if.  If Trent Sherfield caught that pass vs KC.  If Dawkins held his block vs Chris Jones
 

you guessed less than half of his receptions, just over half of his yards and half of his Tds.  

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If, if, if, if.  If Trent Sherfield caught that pass vs KC.  If Dawkins held his block vs Chris Jones
 

you guessed less than half of his receptions, just over half of his yards and half of his Tds.  

Half of 2 is 1. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Half of 2 is 1. 

Yes…..that’s half, like I said.

 

And half of 73 is 36.5.  You said 31.  31….. 

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Knox will be missing alot more time June 1st, 2025. Other than just 2 tds, I was happy with his numbers and expect them to go up this season.

Kincaid showed a weakness on YAC (or it is Allen's throwing style),  All short yardage redzone TDs went to Allen or Murray.   Cook with ability to get YAC was a more better option in the Red Zone. 

Edited March 22 by ganesh

[hondo in seattle]

8 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I was way off at 40, 450, 4.  I feel shame.

 

Yeah, me too.  44, 444, 4.  

[transient]

11 hours ago, Low Positive said:

There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

I'd argue he was pretty conservative with Cook his first year, as well... and he was also a total dick about his handling of him after Cook fumbled on the first snap of his NFL career... which probably didn't help his confidence any. 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Yeah, me too.  44, 444, 4.  

 

[Nelius]

73 receptions as a rookie is pretty nasty. Kincaid is the future, 100+ soon enough.

[Richard Noggin]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection.   They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit.  (That's what's so shocking about Elam.)

 

I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him.  I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this.  Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls.  That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. 

 

As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit.   Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down.  I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen.  The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley.  I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen.  I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope. 

 

While I'll generally agree that NFL players need to "bulk up a bit" from year one to year two, and "receiving" TEs especially usually need to improve core strength to become more consistent blockers, there is always the annoying example of KC's elite TE who at least APPEARS not to spend much time in the weight room relative to other football players. Maybe there is wisdom in eschewing NFL body building norms, with respect to injury prevention? Total outlier, of course, but compelling and frustrating nonetheless. 

 

Kincaid had a fairly significant back injury in college. I wonder if much of the olympic power lifting used to build core strength is unwise for a guy like him?

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

While I'll generally agree that NFL players need to "bulk up a bit" from year one to year two, and "receiving" TEs especially usually need to improve core strength to become more consistent blockers, there is always the annoying example of KC's elite TE who at least APPEARS not to spend much time in the weight room relative to other football players. Maybe there is wisdom in eschewing NFL body building norms, with respect to injury prevention? Total outlier, of course, but compelling and frustrating nonetheless. 

 

Kincaid had a fairly significant back injury in college. I wonder if much of the olympic power lifting used to build core strength is unwise for a guy like him?

Thanks for this.  I don't know anything about strength building and conditioning, so I certainly won't argue with anything you say here.  

 

My comments were based only on my impressions looking at the guy.  He seems a little undersized for a tight end.  Now, of course, his current size allows him to be more mobile than the average tight end, so I don't know if added weight would make him less effective.   Knox isn't your quintessential blocking tight end, but he has a body that seems to be more of the prototype for modern tight ends, and I think it might help Kincaid to build himself up to be at least a bit more like Knox. 

 

I also think a lot of guys come out of college not having built their strength particularly well.   Linemen, particularly, often get to the NFL needing a year or two of learning technique and body building.  I don't know for a fact, but I think there's a big difference between the programs that Alabama, Ohio State and a few other schools run and the programs run by a lot of the other schools.  Kincaid walked on at San Diego State after being primarily a basketball player, and transferred to Utah, which is a nice program but not elite.  So, I wouldn't be surprised if pro weight trainers in Orchard Park looked at him concluded that they could put him on a program that might add weight, or at least redistribute it, and build strength.  They didn't have time to do that in his rookie year; this off-season was the first window they had.  

 

As for Kelce, well, every player is different.   However, according to listed weights, Kelce carries the ten pounds that I think Kincaid might add.  

 

Bottom line for me is that I don't worry about it.   The Bills and Kincaid will figure out what they think is best for him, and he'll work himself into the condition, including weight and strength, that they think is best.  

[MJS]

I predicted:

 

"645 yards, 5 TD's

 

The bulk of that coming in the 2nd half of the season when he ramps up to more playing time."

 

Not too shabby. I didn't predict receptions, though.

[Don Otreply]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

Half of 2 is 1. 

Brilliant!! 😂

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, ganesh said:

Kincaid showed a weakness on YAC (or it is Allen's throwing style),  All short yardage redzone TDs went to Allen or Murray.   Cook with ability to get YAC was a more better option in the Red Zone. 

 

If Kincaid showed a weakness in YAC, why are YAC 46% of his receiving yards?

 

Yes, running backs are better at running (including running after the catch) that's why they're running backs.

[Chicken Boo]

I was expecring about 350-450 yards and less than 50 receptions.

 

A pleasant surprise, the amount of usage he got.  

 

I expect 80+ receptions and around 1,000 yards this season.  

 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

If Kincaid showed a weakness in YAC, why are YAC 46% of his receiving yards?

 

Yes, running backs are better at running (including running after the catch) that's why they're running backs.

He was 18th among TE’s in YAC/reception. 84th among all eligible NFL players.

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

While I'll generally agree that NFL players need to "bulk up a bit" from year one to year two, and "receiving" TEs especially usually need to improve core strength to become more consistent blockers, there is always the annoying example of KC's elite TE who at least APPEARS not to spend much time in the weight room relative to other football players. Maybe there is wisdom in eschewing NFL body building norms, with respect to injury prevention? Total outlier, of course, but compelling and frustrating nonetheless. 

 

Kincaid had a fairly significant back injury in college. I wonder if much of the olympic power lifting used to build core strength is unwise for a guy like him?

 

Core strength can be built in many ways without olympic power lifting.  I know we got guys here who are personal trainers and really into this stuff, hopefully they will speak up.

 

I will also say there's a big difference between having a "dad bod" like Kelce does and "not spending much time in the weight room".  Being "cut" is a lot about having low body fat percentage.  NFL linemen on both sides will say you can be strong AF and not cut because it's covered with a nice fat cushion.

 

OK, last point: Gabe Davis is not very big, but a very effective blocker.  I have been told that a lot of blocking is in the head before the ball is snapped, and then in technique and leverage afterwards.  Anyone who watched FredEx just TEAKETTLE JJ Watt in his prime or Jordan Poyer throw an OLman 3 feet backwards on one of the Bills "guess who is blitzing?" packages should probably get this.

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

He was 18th among TE’s in YAC/reception. 84th among all eligible NFL players.

 

OK, where was he in Y/R?

 

Because the real question with Y/R is "depending on how the guy's being used, how much of what's there is he getting?"  A number of the TE ahead of Kincaid were being used as "big wide recievers" and/or had higher YBC as well, because they were being thrown to more downfield, instead of as Kincaid was used most of the season very close to the LOS.