How clutch was Josh in 2023? No other QB even came close

[Mikie2times]

 

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Lol I was responding to your post where you said his "career" (AKA regular season) 3rd down numbers weren't good enough. Now I clearly demonstrate that he is in fact elite on 3rd downs and your response is just "regular season doesn't matter"?

 

This is why the conversations around Allen and Mahomes on here are often so difficult. People just say whatever and when confronted with evidence that proves otherwise they have to cop out by jumping to some variation of "winners win, losers lose."

 

Sort of off topic, but everybody should start these conversations with the understanding that QBs individually are responsible for maybe 35% of their own team's success. That's a huge swing for just one player obviously, but the totality of what the other ~65% provides stil ultimately matters more.

 

You're right. This is why people can't have a conversations on this topic. People will steer things how they must to fit whatever narrative they have. My post was talking about his throwing on third down and game winning drives in the playoffs. You were the one that diverted away from what I discussed with something totally different. Historically Allen is not a good passer on 3rd downs. You want to debate that? Historically Allen is good on 3rd downs when you include his running. Not debating that.

32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

sorry I think I misunderstood what you were referencing then

 

where did you get this data?

PFR under career splits. They don't separate success rate for that but it's not hard taking first downs / total attempts. Below is this year. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

You're right. This is why people can't have a conversations on this topic. People will steer things how they must to fit whatever narrative they have. My post was talking about his throwing on third down and game winning drives in the playoffs. You were the one that diverted away from what I discussed with something totally different. Historically Allen is not a good passer on 3rd downs. You want to debate that? Historically Allen is good on 3rd downs when you include his running. Not debating that.

 

So when you said...

 

"Going off script does not deliver the consistency of delivering on script. It produces some incredible moments but isn't as repeatable. You create repeatable actions by throwing on schedule."

 

...what did that mean? Because it appears to me that it means Allen's process is not good enough to be consistently and repeatably successful on 3rd down. Which, again, is blatantly false.

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay, so your answer to my question is "no, I don't know that." So allow me to inform you - the QB does not call plays or set progression.

So what you’re telling me is Allen is like Purdy. No on field decisions whatsoever. Sounds like you don’t give Allen much credit. I, on the other hand, consider Allen elite capable of making independent on field decisions.

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

No on field decisions whatsoever.

 

You're continuing to make a strong case that you don't know how play designs and progressions work.

 

If you want to say Brady/McDermott should have called a series that focused more on winding the clock down and scoring at the last possible second, instead of scoring a TD right there, fine. I don't agree with that take but it is at least defensible and based in something factual. What you're arguing is something else entirely. You, like many people, seem to think QBs are playing Madden and scanning the entire field all at once to find the "most open" receiver. Again I'd like to inform you that this isn't correct. I don't really know what else to tell you.

[GoBills808]

28 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

You're right. This is why people can't have a conversations on this topic. People will steer things how they must to fit whatever narrative they have. My post was talking about his throwing on third down and game winning drives in the playoffs. You were the one that diverted away from what I discussed with something totally different. Historically Allen is not a good passer on 3rd downs. You want to debate that? Historically Allen is good on 3rd downs when you include his running. Not debating that.

PFR under career splits. They don't separate success rate for that but it's not hard taking first downs / total attempts. Below is this year. 

 

 

I don't think converting 4% fewer third down throws than Mahomes means you are not a good passer on third downs, looking around league at third down success% on career splits (🤙for that tip btw) I think he looks pretty good...I mean Brady is only at 42.9%, Rodgers around 44%, Stafford 42%

[Jauronimo]

8 hours ago, nucci said:

why the numerous threads about how great Allen is? We already know this.

We've got certain information, all right? Certain things have come to light. And, you know, has it ever occurred to you that, instead of criticizing us,  given the nature of all this new info, you know, just sayin this could be a lot more complex. I mean, it might not be just such a simple thing here, you get what I'm saying?

 

[Neo]

9 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Last time I checked, football is a team sport. 

From time to time, we talk about individual members of the team.

[msw2112]

8 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

He’s the best in the league and we all know it. Needed to make one more throw and not rely on the field goal. It wouldn’t have mattered anyway with that defense out there crippled.

 

Which is why many posters on this board have been saying repeatedly that on the final drive against the Chiefs, the Bills should have milked the clock down before taking shots at the end zone, giving them a) an opportunity to get the winning score; and b) keep the Chiefs off the field against that crippled defense.  Allen is awesome, but he could have been even more awesome if he got the first down by hitting Diggs underneath and working the clock down before taking the end zone shots.  I wouldn't trade Allen for Mahomes or any other player in the NFL, but I still think he could have handled that situation better.  The coaches may bear responsibility too, as everyone should have been in synch with the plan.  They even had the 2-minute warning timeout to discuss it.

[Mikie2times]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So when you said...

 

"Going off script does not deliver the consistency of delivering on script. It produces some incredible moments but isn't as repeatable. You create repeatable actions by throwing on schedule."

 

...what did that mean? Because it appears to me that it means Allen's process is not good enough to be consistently and repeatably successful on 3rd down. Which, again, is blatantly false.

This thread is about game winning drives. Which was ironic to me because the Bills were sent home on a failed game winning drive. 

 

I do not feel particularly great as it relates to Allen on game winning drives in the playoffs. He had chances vs Houston before regulation and in OT, a TD wins. He had chances against KC, a TD wins.  In fact name one time in Allen's career the game ended with us scoring a TD? How many times has it even happened under 2 minutes? A few sure, but this is far from a sure thing given he's the "best" at it. Field goals have been different but we didn't just watch Mahomes win on a FG did we? He ties it in such fashion but still needed to do what Allen has never done in his career to win it.

 

I used his 3rd down data to discuss one of the reasons why I feel that way. When you have one singular drive against an elite team I don't think being off schedule benefits you. You can't run like you can in other spots so that process you talk about that works in the regular season gets taken away. We see the same thing with Josh and OT. He is not the guy you want if you need a TD and have one drive to do it. 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're continuing to make a strong case that you don't know how play designs and progressions work.

 

If you want to say Brady/McDermott should have called a series that focused more on winding the clock down and scoring at the last possible second, instead of scoring a TD right there, fine. I don't agree with that take but it is at least defensible and based in something factual. What you're arguing is something else entirely. You, like many people, seem to think QBs are playing Madden and scanning the entire field all at once to find the "most open" receiver. Again I'd like to inform you that this isn't correct. I don't really know what else to tell you.

You know elite QBs are allowed to skip receivers during their progression right? You’re making it seems like Allen is some scrub with no on field decision flexibility whatsoever. 

[msw2112]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're continuing to make a strong case that you don't know how play designs and progressions work.

 

If you want to say Brady/McDermott should have called a series that focused more on winding the clock down and scoring at the last possible second, instead of scoring a TD right there, fine. I don't agree with that take but it is at least defensible and based in something factual. What you're arguing is something else entirely. You, like many people, seem to think QBs are playing Madden and scanning the entire field all at once to find the "most open" receiver. Again I'd like to inform you that this isn't correct. I don't really know what else to tell you.

 

The bolded is the position that I'm taking and stand by.  I don't know what the play's design or intent was, but on the fateful 2nd down play, there were three defenders in the end zone in the vicinity of Shair.  I agree that he had gotten past them and a perfect throw would have resulted in a TD.  That said, Shair's deep route cleared out everything underneath, which left Diggs WIDE OPEN for an easy catch and nobody between him and the first down marker.  Had that play been made, the Bills would have had the opportunity to work the clock and employ the "score at the last possible second" strategy.  That's a wise strategy in a game involving top-flight QBs and offenses that have delivered in the clutch time and time again (Brady's Pats, Mahomes' Chiefs, etc.) where it's highly likely that whoever has the last possession is going to score and win the game.

 

That was the situation at the end of regulation in the Super Bowl and I believe the Chiefs handled it properly.  They got into position to score the winning TD, but if they couldn't score it (which they didn't), they were able to tie the game with an easy chip shot FG, and they left no time on the clock for the 49ers to come back down the field and beat them.  And that was with Brock Purdy on the other sideline, not someone like Allen or Mahomes.

Edited February 17 by msw2112

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, nucci said:

why the numerous threads about how great Allen is? We already know this.

this !!!  Go Bills !

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

You're right. This is why people can't have a conversations on this topic. People will steer things how they must to fit whatever narrative they have. My post was talking about his throwing on third down and game winning drives in the playoffs. You were the one that diverted away from what I discussed with something totally different. Historically Allen is not a good passer on 3rd downs. You want to debate that? Historically Allen is good on 3rd downs when you include his running. Not debating that.

PFR under career splits. They don't separate success rate for that but it's not hard taking first downs / total attempts. Below is this year. 

 

 

The stats you reference here for Allen are indeed true for this season. They are also a total outlier compared to the three seasons prior from 2020 to 2022. 
 

Allen had a lot of 3rd and long INT’s this year leading to his 1:1 ratio of TD’s to INT’s this last season. I’d even go a step further and say that eliminating 4 out of his 7 3rd down INT’s this year could have been the difference in the turnover narrative this year and may have cost him the MVP. Basically 4 plays may have cost Allen the MVP. 

 

One of the below is not like the others. 

 

2023 7TD 7INT 72 rating 41.4% success rate

 

2022 9TD 4INT 95 rating 50.4% success rate

 

2021 15TD 6 INT 92 rating 44.5% success rate 

 

2020 7TD 2INT 102 rating 50.8% success rate
 

Historically Allen is not good on 3rd downs? That’s just not true based on the above data. 
 

By strictly passer rating splits, in 2020 Allen was worse on 2nd down than 3rd down. In 2021 he was worse on 1st down than 3rd down. In 2022, Allen was worse on 1st down than 3rd down. In none of the three years was 3rd down Allen’s worse split of the three downs.

This year was a totally different story. Allen sucked butt on 3rd down. About 30 points lower than both 1st and 2nd down. I mean his rating was like 25 points lower than his average over the previous three seasons on 3rd down. 
 

Total freaking anomaly. 
 

 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

4 hours ago, msw2112 said:

 

Which is why many posters on this board have been saying repeatedly that on the final drive against the Chiefs, the Bills should have milked the clock down before taking shots at the end zone, giving them a) an opportunity to get the winning score; and b) keep the Chiefs off the field against that crippled defense.  Allen is awesome, but he could have been even more awesome if he got the first down by hitting Diggs underneath and working the clock down before taking the end zone shots.  I wouldn't trade Allen for Mahomes or any other player in the NFL, but I still think he could have handled that situation better.  The coaches may bear responsibility too, as everyone should have been in synch with the plan.  They even had the 2-minute warning timeout to discuss it.

I was there and as soon as they got the ball with like eight minutes left I must’ve told my wife like three times we have to get this down to under a minute score touchdown and force the Chiefs to use both timeouts. They were like two places away from doing it.

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, finn said:

This with a single top receiver--and even he dropped off a cliff midseason.

Screw the defense. Give this man three top receivers, good protection, and a run game, and he will score 75 points a game. 

 

 

It ain't like three quarters of the league has two top receivers.

 

Pretty much everyone has one top receiver. There are exceptions, like the Bengals for one, but they are few and far between. The Chiefs certainly only have one top receiver to go with their Lombardi trophy.

 

Yes, Josh is terrific. It can't be reasonably argued that he isn't.

 

But you don't judge how good a QB is from how he does at the end of the game. It's about the whole game, it really is. A QB who does well throughout the game eliminating clutch situations entirely is doing better than a guy who does well in the clutch, allowing another QB who does well in the clutch that day from going back and forth with you and having whoever had the ball last to win.

 

Much better to be better in the clutch than worse. Far far better still to be better over the course of all parts of your game.

 

And when you're looking at a total of 30 or 40 minutes over the course of one season, statistical significance is quite questionable. I do think he's clutch, I think we all feel that. But how much so being determined by this look at five minutes from a few games in one season is very questionable. And so is how well other QBs did during the same type of very limited looks.

Edited February 17 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The stats you reference here for Allen are indeed true for this season. They are also a total outlier compared to the three seasons prior from 2020 to 2022. 
 

Allen had a lot of 3rd and long INT’s this year leading to his 1:1 ratio of TD’s to INT’s this last season. I’d even go a step further and say that eliminating 4 out of his 7 3rd down INT’s this year could have been the difference in the turnover narrative this year and may have cost him the MVP. Basically 4 plays may have cost Allen the MVP. 

 

One of the below is not like the others. 

 

2023 7TD 7INT 72 rating 41.4% success rate

 

2022 9TD 4INT 95 rating 50.4% success rate

 

2021 15TD 6 INT 92 rating 44.5% success rate 

 

2020 7TD 2INT 102 rating 50.8% success rate
 

Historically Allen is not good on 3rd downs? That’s just not true based on the above data. 
 

By strictly passer rating splits, in 2020 Allen was worse on 2nd down than 3rd down. In 2021 he was worse on 1st down than 3rd down. In 2022, Allen was worse on 1st down than 3rd down. In none of the three years was 3rd down Allen’s worse split of the three downs.

This year was a totally different story. Allen sucked butt on 3rd down. About 30 points lower than both 1st and 2nd down. I mean his rating was like 25 points lower than his average over the previous three seasons on 3rd down. 
 

Total freaking anomaly. 
 

 

 

 

While I agree with nearly all of what you're saying here, it wasn't a "turnover narrative."

 

It was the actual occurences of turnovers and particularly interceptions. He actually had more INTs than anyone but Sam Howell. That's not a narrative, it's a stat.

 

Agreed on what you're saying about 3rd downs.

 

I wonder if it's not a result of longer yardages. Teams this year started to treat our second downs like third downs, taking more risks like blitzing and hidden coverages. Did that result in longer 3rd down yardages? Not sure. If I had more time I'd try to research it.

[pennstate10]

15 hours ago, DJB said:

 

So, I'm going to double down, and say that not only is this graph useless, the entire premise of "clutch" QB is not really useful.

 

Lets consider football vs baseball.  Football is a team game.  Baseball is a series of 1 on 1 (pitcher vs batter) competitions.  

 

So, yes, baseball may have "clutch" players.  But, as a team game, football has clutch TEAMS, not QBs.

 

The current KC Chiefs and the 2000-2020 Pats were clutch TEAMS.  The Bills, sad to say, are not currently a clutch TEAM.  They may be in the future, but they are not now.

 

To consider how silly it is to talk about a clutch QB, lets think about SB XXV.  If Norwood hits a field goal (which, basically, was the same as flipping a coin), then Kelly is suddenly a "clutch" QB who guided his team to a last minute SB victory.  But Kelly has nothing whatsoever to do with Norwoods kick.  Hes watching on the sidelines, just like the rest of us.

 

Or as discussed above, if McD defense performs better in 13 sec in 2021, then Josh is suddenly a better, more clutch QB.  Really?  Or if Diggs catches a long ball in 2023, Josh is suddenly a better QB.  It makes far more sense to talk about clutch TEAMS, not players.

 

The facts are that Allen is an excellent QB, who typically gives his team a chance to win.  So is Mahomes.  Yet this graph suggests that Josh is unicorn good, while Mahomes is well below average.  One of the 3 very worst QBs in the league, per this graph. 

 

Does no one else have a problem with this?  The chart is simply garbage, but because good old Kurt has GraphPad prism to make fancy charts, this is all of a sudden the gospel truth.  

 

SMH

[CoudyBills]

15 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

But in the NFL, QB is BY FAR the most important position, and that one player can make WORLDS of difference. See Tom Brady with the Bucaneers, for example.

The loaded bucs team that he led to a superbowl?

[msw2112]

3 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

I was there and as soon as they got the ball with like eight minutes left I must’ve told my wife like three times we have to get this down to under a minute score touchdown and force the Chiefs to use both timeouts. They were like two places away from doing it.

 

I was watching it on TV and kept saying the same thing over and over ("they need to milk the clock down to next to nothing before they score....") and finally someone told me to "shut up already."  And yet I'm STILL saying it!

 

The truly unfortunate part is that they were in perfect position to do this (with Diggs wide open underneath on 2nd down, for an easy first down), but Allen decided to throw to the end zone (incomplete, as we all know) instead.

Edited February 17 by msw2112

[H2o]

This is what we've all seen since day 1 when Josh stepped on a field in a Bills uni. He's always had that "it" factor, his teammates love him, and you know he's going to leave everything on the field. In most instances he walks off the field having led his team to a lead, or put them in position to take it, or at least tie (unless we're already up substantially). Those with a basic understanding of football know he's clutch if they watch him play. The 🤡's on TV can nitpick all they want, and try to claim lesser QB's are better, but the eye test doesn't lie. Josh is not the reason we're out here losing games.