State of the DL (and pass rush)

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Why do we need an extra 2nd to do that? If we have a hole at DT and he's there, just Draft him.

 

I think the point might be about whether he makes it down to our spot.

[PrimeTime101]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Settle is trash. I wouldn't necessarily guarantee Shaq a spot. But Id bring him back on vet minimum and let him compete in camp. 

 

Sure Jones is the priority but he is not a must keep and there should be a price at which they say no and walk away.

 

Floyd disappeared after about week 10. He was our best pass rusher early season. But his effectiveness fell of a cliff down the stretch.

spot on. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Surely you'd let "Never Settle" and "PooPoo Ford" walk too? They are hopeless.

Settle was so bad in the KC game never want to see him on this team again. The Chiefs ran right at him and AJ Klien it was horrible to watch. I'm with you Gunner get Never Settle out! 

[Pete]

DaQuan is a must sign IMO.  He is a local, coming off injury, and you can see the improved D  when DaQuan in the game.  He won't break the bank.

 

AJ.  AJ was having a breakout year, before he suffered injury, which hindered him rest of the season.  AJ is young, knows this system, and his arrow is pointing up.  Do cap gymnastics.  Make it happen.  Von, Roos, AJ- we need pass rushers!

 

We need DL bodies, and we like to roll deep. Settle.  If price is right, yes,   Poona and Joseph both played great when given chance.  Again, right price, yes to all of the above

22 hours ago, Westside said:

It is very troubling to me. Rousseau, Elam, AJE, have definitely not panned out as of yet. Rousseau shows flashes but disappears way too often for someone of his caliber. Same with AJE, flashes but that’s it.

Our drafting has to seriously improve or we will continue to be paper tigers when it comes to the playoffs.

We had 55 sacks last year!  With all of the Bills injuries- we had 55 sacks!  Thats one away from a franchise record!

Edited February 3 by Pete

[noacls]

14 minutes ago, Pete said:

DaQuan is a must sign IMO.  He is a local, coming off injury, and you can see the improved D  when DaQuan in the game.  He won't break the bank.

 

AJ.  AJ was having a breakout year, before he suffered injury, which hindered him rest of the season.  AJ is young, knows this system, and his arrow is pointing up.  Do cap gymnastics.  Make it happen.  Von, Roos, AJ- we need pass rushers!

 

We need DL bodies, and we like to roll deep. Settle.  If price is right, yes,   Poona and Joseph both played great when given chance.  Again, right price, yes to all of the above

We had 55 sacks last year!  With all of the Bills injuries- we had 55 sacks!  Thats one away from a franchise record!

Did they have any in playoffs?

[NastyNateSoldiers]

22 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

The illness isn’t the one year contracts; that’s the symptom. The root cause is swinging and missing at Epenesa and Rousseau. If those two guys were performing at anywhere their top draft potential we’d have a solid three stalwarts when coupled with Oliver, not the rotational grab bag we see now. 

Add Boogie

[NastyNateSoldiers]

This is an excellent opportunity for the Bills to change there philosophy with the DLine. Mcd needs to scrap his heavy rotation because we can't afford it. Paying bkups 6-7 mil per season is not a good recipe for success for the Dline or for the salary cap. U can't continue to use high pks and millions of dollars of cap space for part time players.

 

Obviously u have to have a rotation but there should be a clear totem pole with the starters playing 65-75% of the snaps and bkups coming in to spell them at the 35-25% of the time. Mcd system has not been that type of rotation it's more of a 50/50 split. I believe Oliver played the most last season and he was at around 60% of snaps. If u look at the best teams or most teams in general they don't rotate the way the Bills do. 

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can't buy Greg as a fail for where he was picked. He has only missed 4 starts in 3 years and has been a good starting defensive end. Exceptional against the run good at batting balls vs the pass. Sure he is only a moderate pass rusher but he was not drafted in the top 10. He was drafted #30 overall. If at the end of round 1 you get an above average starter who has started almost every game through three years that isnt a fail. If the point is he isn't an elite difference maker, sure, he isn't. And overall it is agreed Beane hasn't found enough of those. But Rousseau isn't a failed pick. He is a really good football player. 

 

Good synopsis of Rousseau. He’s doing what is asked of the LDE role in McDermott’s defense - setting the edge, keeping contain and getting an occasional sack. I don’t love using the 30th overall pick on a guy that doesn’t have the skill set to ever be a difference maker though. I said it on draft day - even if he works out he will only be here 4 or 5 seasons. I’d be open to giving him a modest extension, but I think he knows he’d get more on the open market. Some team will overpay him. 

[SCBills]

We return:

 

DT: Oliver

 

EDGE: Von, Rousseau, Jonathan

 

Id bring back Shaq Lawson for the vet minimum. 
 

Jones & Epenesa at the right price.  If they get a decent contract offer elsewhere, let them walk. 
 

Floyd was good for 3/4ths of the regular season but faded at the end.   He bridged the regular season gap while Von worked his way back from injury, but didn’t show in the playoffs.  
 

Make sure Allen has everything he needs to be a juggernaut of an offense, which shouldn’t be difficult given we return our OL, TE’s, Diggs, Shakir and Cook.  Just get him WR help and then figure out the Defense.  
 

The strength of this Defense should center around our two stud linebackers next year.  Have to hope Rousseau steps up in a contract year and Von regains 80% of his prior ACL self.

 

If we don’t re-sign Jones, I could see DT at 28.. and while we better get help for Allen.. someone like T’Vondre Sweat next to Ed Oliver could transform the DL for years. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

I see WR round 1, DL,and Safety in rounds 2&3.  Then DL again with lower picks.

 

Jones is the only guy I target in FA.  Here is what we know...all those guys listed,can't consistently get to the QB and disappeared against KC, just like they did against Cincinnati the year before.  You know what you have in them, and we aren't getting it done with them.  

 

Time to bring in new talent.  I hope beane can play moneyball and hit on a couple low cost FA's and his draft picks.

Edited February 3 by SoonerBillsFan

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Good synopsis of Rousseau. He’s doing what is asked of the LDE role in McDermott’s defense - setting the edge, keeping contain and getting an occasional sack. I don’t love using the 30th overall pick on a guy that doesn’t have the skill set to ever be a difference maker though. I said it on draft day - even if he works out he will only be here 4 or 5 seasons. I’d be open to giving him a modest extension, but I think he knows he’d get more on the open market. Some team will overpay him. 

 

They were really keen to take an edge and he was the best edge on the board. I liked Tyson Campbell as well at corner (had him and Groot graded the same), who has probably been a more impactful pro but other than that it is hard to come up with the guy they should have picked in terms of that ability to be a difference maker. 

[BarleyNY]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They were really keen to take an edge and he was the best edge on the board. I liked Tyson Campbell as well at corner (had him and Groot graded the same), who has probably been a more impactful pro but other than that it is hard to come up with the guy they should have picked in terms of that ability to be a difference maker. 

 

DEs that can hold an edge and defend the run but can’t bend the edge or do a very good job getting to QBs on their own are not all that expensive in FA. The opportunity cost was a prospect with real upside albeit at a different position. 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

DEs that can hold an edge and defend the run but can’t bend the edge or do a very good job getting to QBs on their own are not all that expensive in FA. The opportunity cost was a prospect with real upside albeit at a different position. 

 

I understand the point you are making... but I'm saying it isn't like there were a ton of prospects with real upside there. Tyson Campbell is the only guy I can think of who was:

 

1. Available

2. A premium position

3. Has demonstrated difference maker type ability. 

 

Even with the benefit of hindsight I can come up with precisely one name (and he wasn't as good this year either).

Edited February 3 by GunnerBill

[GASabresIUFan]

47 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I see WR round 1, DL,and Safety in rounds 2&3.  Then DL again with lower picks.

I hope for this as well.  

 

However, I don't expect any of the FA DL back.  Maybe Epenesa, but he should get more than we can afford to pay in free agency.  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

They are 100% keeping jones and I suspect will pay him good money, with maybe an out after 2 years. He is a risk with age, but a risk worth taking.

 

Shaq and Phillips probably back on the same 1-year vet deals.

 

i think everyone else walks.

 

[BarleyNY]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I understand the point you are making... but I'm saying it isn't like there were a ton of prospects with real upside there. Tyson Campbell is the only guy I can think of who was:

 

1. Available

2. A premium position

3. Has demonstrated difference maker type ability. 

 

Even with the benefit of hindsight I can come up with precisely one name.

No argument from me for points 1 & 2. The lack of much in the way of other options at that point in the draft is the best defense of picking him there. And you might as well go with a premium position if that’s what you are dealing with. I remember being more and more despondent as players came off of the board that year. I’m not sure what the cost of a trade up was or what options for trading back existed. I would guess not great either way.

 

But I disagree on point 3. His college tape showed me nothing other than length that would translate to the NFL. I thought that he carried a lot of risk as a prospect too. He didn’t play for a year (covid) and came to the combine out of shape. He has panned out as well as he could have so I guess I can’t complain about that. Also my preference for the pick at the time was Asante Samuel Jr. due to some of the same reasoning: premium position and need. I also thought he was a safer prospect and had a higher floor and ceiling. I’d have rather gone after a player like that. 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

No argument from me for points 1 & 2. The lack of much in the way of other options at that point in the draft is the best defense of picking him there. And you might as well go with a premium position if that’s what you are dealing with. I remember being more and more despondent as players came off of the board that year. I’m not sure what the cost of a trade up was or what options for trading back existed. I would guess not great either way.

 

But I disagree on point 3. His college tape showed me nothing other than length that would translate to the NFL. I thought that he carried a lot of risk as a prospect too. He didn’t play for a year (covid) and came to the combine out of shape. He has panned out as well as he could have so I guess I can’t complain about that. Also my preference for the pick at the time was Asante Samuel Jr. due to some of the same reasoning: premium position and need. I also thought he was a safer prospect and had a higher floor and ceiling. I’d have rather gone after a player like that. 

 

Samuel was a terrible fit for our scheme.

[BarleyNY]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Samuel was a terrible fit for our scheme.

Wow. I certainly disagree with that. He’s the polar opposite of Elam, who is the terrible fit here.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Wow. I certainly disagree with that. He’s the polar opposite of Elam, who is the terrible fit here.

 

I don't think he is the polar opposite of Elam. I think he is similar. I think he struggles in transitions, gets grabby when beat and is flat out bad in run support. I agree Elam was a terrible fit here. I said that before they picked him too. 

 

I wasn't particularly high on Samuel in general to be honest. He was a late 2nd round grade for me. As I said earlier the corner who was, for me, in that high second round grade range where I had Groot was Tyson Campbell. He was solid as a rookie, had an excellent year in 2022 but wasn't as good this past season. He to me is the only answer for who did they miss the opportunity on at that spot with Rousseau. I had a higher grade on JOK, who just had a brilliant year, but he is an off the ball 'backer so I am not gonna kill them for taking a swing on the higher value position. 

[3rdand12]

On 2/2/2024 at 9:05 AM, Yantha said:

With Settle and Ford, I have them as offering the vet minimum as just in case 3rd stringers....  

 

But in actuality, I'm hoping we sign Jones, and also target a quality DT in the draft, so Settle/Ford (or both) wouldn't make the 53 man roster.

 

FA Targets?

Maybe Christian Wilkins (Miami)?  We'd have a HUGE amount of $$ tied up at the DT position if we sign Jones and Wilkins, but DL is an area of "need" for investment.  Hard call.

This is a brutal situation if we are following Gunner's e v a l. And we are most likely doomed in that case. Need Safeties too.

We need two WR from the draft too. One is a 1A or 1B. and a speed guy for the outside

 Where are these D line player coming from ? Is my concern, and its a big concern with Bills cap

 

if only they could move on from Millers contract ... lol  they cant

and I feel Jones has plenty left and a must sign , as he wont be breaking the budget anyways.

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, noacls said:

Did they have any in playoffs?

 They were out Coached perhaps ?

4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

This is an excellent opportunity for the Bills to change there philosophy with the DLine. Mcd needs to scrap his heavy rotation because we can't afford it. Paying bkups 6-7 mil per season is not a good recipe for success for the Dline or for the salary cap. U can't continue to use high pks and millions of dollars of cap space for part time players.

 

Obviously u have to have a rotation but there should be a clear totem pole with the starters playing 65-75% of the snaps and bkups coming in to spell them at the 35-25% of the time. Mcd system has not been that type of rotation it's more of a 50/50 split. I believe Oliver played the most last season and he was at around 60% of snaps. If u look at the best teams or most teams in general they don't rotate the way the Bills do. 

it seems to be a method that is indulgent financially, at least to me. Even though I like the concept

If it won Bills playoff games I would not question it.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

This is an excellent opportunity for the Bills to change there philosophy with the DLine. Mcd needs to scrap his heavy rotation because we can't afford it. Paying bkups 6-7 mil per season is not a good recipe for success for the Dline or for the salary cap. U can't continue to use high pks and millions of dollars of cap space for part time players.

 

Obviously u have to have a rotation but there should be a clear totem pole with the starters playing 65-75% of the snaps and bkups coming in to spell them at the 35-25% of the time. Mcd system has not been that type of rotation it's more of a 50/50 split. I believe Oliver played the most last season and he was at around 60% of snaps. If u look at the best teams or most teams in general they don't rotate the way the Bills do. 

 

Ed was 70%. Groot was 60%. The rest was a heavy rotation although injuries obviously played a part in that. 

 

As for what the "best teams" do it varies heavily team to team. The Chiefs have 3 guys - Danna, Karlaftis and Jones all at 68 or 69%. Pretty consistent with just the 4th spot a lot more rotated. 

 

The 49ers have Bosa at 75%, Hargrave at 57% and nobody else over 50%. Heavy rotation. 

 

The Eagles last year had Cox and Hargrave in the mid 60s and then heavy rotation after that.

 

I don't think there is a right or wrong on heavy rotation as long as you have a couple of constants. But I DO think the Bills have to be better at finding cheap contributors up there. You can't have only 1st and 2nd round picks plus guys you have paid good money to. They need to find a day 3 guy who can be part of that rotation. 

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ed was 70%. Groot was 60%. The rest was a heavy rotation although injuries obviously played a part in that. 

 

As for what the "best teams" do it varies heavily team to team. The Chiefs have 3 guys - Danna, Karlaftis and Jones all at 68 or 69%. Pretty consistent with just the 4th spot a lot more rotated. 

 

The 49ers have Bosa at 75%, Hargrave at 57% and nobody else over 50%. Heavy rotation. 

 

The Eagles last year had Cox and Hargrave in the mid 60s and then heavy rotation after that.

 

I don't think there is a right or wrong on heavy rotation as long as you have a couple of constants. But I DO think the Bills have to be better at finding cheap contributors up there. You can't have only 1st and 2nd round picks plus guys you have paid good money to. They need to find a day 3 guy who can be part of that rotation. 

Maybe its the LBs   😋 

 

see bolded

Edited February 3 by 3rdand12

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Daquon if the money works.

All the rest can go. 

None of them are worth keeping.

If they bring back Daquon then you have the starting 4. All you need is 5 backups two of which can come from the draft, one will be Joseph, and 2 new bargain free agents. 

[Pete]

21 hours ago, noacls said:

Did they have any in playoffs?

We had 55 sacks last year with multiple huge injuries on the D.

 

Floyd, AJ, Joseph, Jones, Settle, and Phillips are all free agents now.

 

We are $50 million over the cap, and we need to field a 53 man roster, and replenish 6+ DL

 

What is your plan for DL in 2024?

 

I think Beane has done a fantastic job putting together a great roster, top to botttom.

 

The fact is, our D stopped KC the last 3 drives of the game.  3 chances the Bills offense had a chance to score 3 points ,and the Bills offense failed 3 times.

 

 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ed was 70%. Groot was 60%. The rest was a heavy rotation although injuries obviously played a part in that. 

 

As for what the "best teams" do it varies heavily team to team. The Chiefs have 3 guys - Danna, Karlaftis and Jones all at 68 or 69%. Pretty consistent with just the 4th spot a lot more rotated. 

 

The 49ers have Bosa at 75%, Hargrave at 57% and nobody else over 50%. Heavy rotation. 

 

The Eagles last year had Cox and Hargrave in the mid 60s and then heavy rotation after that.

 

I don't think there is a right or wrong on heavy rotation as long as you have a couple of constants. But I DO think the Bills have to be better at finding cheap contributors up there. You can't have only 1st and 2nd round picks plus guys you have paid good money to. They need to find a day 3 guy who can be part of that rotation. 

But we do fall short of other rotations across the league as far as percentages go . Then the assett management is where we both definitely agree can't put all that money and picks on rotation players. There needs to be some cheap talent some late picks in the mix. Pay your top guys but otherwise go cheap. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

20 hours ago, SCBills said:

We return:

 

DT: Oliver

 

EDGE: Von, Rousseau, Jonathan

 

Id bring back Shaq Lawson for the vet minimum. 
 

Jones & Epenesa at the right price.  If they get a decent contract offer elsewhere, let them walk. 
 

Floyd was good for 3/4ths of the regular season but faded at the end.   He bridged the regular season gap while Von worked his way back from injury, but didn’t show in the playoffs.  
 

Make sure Allen has everything he needs to be a juggernaut of an offense, which shouldn’t be difficult given we return our OL, TE’s, Diggs, Shakir and Cook.  Just get him WR help and then figure out the Defense.  
 

The strength of this Defense should center around our two stud linebackers next year.  Have to hope Rousseau steps up in a contract year and Von regains 80% of his prior ACL self.

 

If we don’t re-sign Jones, I could see DT at 28.. and while we better get help for Allen.. someone like T’Vondre Sweat next to Ed Oliver could transform the DL for years. 

I like Sweat but u don't use a high picks in the draft on run stuffing 2 down players. He's not a Ngata type. DJ Reader is a free agent and he won't break the bank go sign him instead.

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

But we do fall short of other rotations across the league as far as percentages go . Then the assett management is where we both definitely agree can't put all that money and picks on rotation players. There needs to be some cheap talent some late picks in the mix. Pay your top guys but otherwise go cheap. 

 

I think we would probably be somewhere in the top 3rd rotation wise. But I think you'd find a lot of good teams in that area too. I just looked at the Ravens as well. Madubuike is at 65%. Two guys mid 50s everyone else below. The good teams generally have depth up there and are heavy rotations. The teams who rotate least tend to be that way because they lack good backups and it makes them vulnerable at the end of games because their pass rushers are gassed. 

 

The main question is can the Bills build that depth cheaper than they have thus far. The Von contract obviously hurst. So the likely answer for next year is - no. But from 2025 and beyond they need to look at how they stock that unit. They probably are due another early pick on the DL (they haven't made one in the past two drafts) but then they have to be cleverer on the vet market.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I like Sweat but u don't use a high picks in the draft on run stuffing 2 down players. He's not a Ngata type. DJ Reader is a free agent and he won't break the bank go sign him instead.

 

Man I wanted them to draft Reader so bad that year. The view at the time was DT was not a need but he was pretty much a certain long term starter for a day 3 pick. Ugh. Spotrac has him making upwards of $14m AAV based on the Dalvin Tomlinson contract (which I am certain will be a starting point for his agents) so I think he probably is beyond us now. If he doesn't get what he wants in the first wave and is a dust settles guy I could see it but I suspect he will get a good contract.

 

On Sweat I think he is more than just a two down run stuffer. I know his sack production in college isn't fantastic but on tape he wins a lot of his pass rush reps. If he was there at the end of the 2nd I'd strongly consider him. He won't be though. And he definitely isn't worth a round 1 pick. I think he will go somewhere in the top half of the second round. He has enough pass rushing ability to justify a 2nd round pick I think.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Man I wanted them to draft Reader so bad that year. The view at the time was DT was not a need but he was pretty much a certain long term starter for a day 3 pick. Ugh. Spotrac has him making upwards of $14m AAV based on the Dalvin Tomlinson contract (which I am certain will be a starting point for his agents) so I think he probably is beyond us now. If he doesn't get what he wants in the first wave and is a dust settles guy I could see it but I suspect he will get a good contract.

 

On Sweat I think he is more than just a two down run stuffer. I know his sack production in college isn't fantastic but on tape he wins a lot of his pass rush reps. If he was there at the end of the 2nd I'd strongly consider him. He won't be though. And he definitely isn't worth a round 1 pick. I think he will go somewhere in the top half of the second round. He has enough pass rushing ability to justify a 2nd round pick I think.

I loved Reader as well that yr. I agree Sweat will go in the 2nd Rd. 

Just now, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I loved Reader as well that yr. 

 

Edited February 4 by NastyNateSoldiers

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I loved Reader as well that yr. I agree Sweat will go in the 2nd Rd. 

 

 

 

Beane tried to get Reader in free agency but he chose Cinci.  

 

Denico Autry is another guy they tried to get in UFA but failed.  

 

If TN decides they want to get younger there I could see the Bills pursuing Autry in UFA again because he could give them a combination DE/3T.

 

I'd think the cap healthy Titans would retain him coming off an 11.5 sack season but at age 34 sometimes teams turn their back on those guys.

 

[The Jokeman]

33 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Beane tried to get Reader in free agency but he chose Cinci.  

 

Denico Autry is another guy they tried to get in UFA but failed.  

 

If TN decides they want to get younger there I could see the Bills pursuing Autry in UFA again because he could give them a combination DE/3T.

 

I'd think the cap healthy Titans would retain him coming off an 11.5 sack season but at age 34 sometimes teams turn their back on those guys.

 

I've heard some mention we get another former Titan, Bud Dupree to play on the edge.