Road to the Playoffs

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

 

Yeah this is true.  Equally important was the Denver loss last night that also made this possible

[Jrb1979]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah this is true.  Equally important was the Denver loss last night that also made this possible

11-6 only happens if they win out. I don't see it. I don't get it. All these other teams the Bills are chasing are going to lose more than they win, yet the Bills are going to win 5 straight. 

 

 

[Scott7975]

46 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

11-6 only happens if they win out. I don't see it. I don't get it. All these other teams the Bills are chasing are going to lose more than they win, yet the Bills are going to win 5 straight. 

 

 

 

If we win today I think we will.  I don't think we lose any of the rest of our schedule.  Today is going to be tough though.  What kills me is all the people that still think this team has a great shot to get a WC if we lose today because NYT odds.  I don't get those odds at all.  Sure, you can find a wc in the simulator at 10-7 but in those scenarios, any one of 3 or 4 games goes the other way and we are out.  That doesn't seem like good odds to me.

[Jrb1979]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If we win today I think we will.  I don't think we lose any of the rest of our schedule.  Today is going to be tough though.  What kills me is all the people that still think this team has a great shot to get a WC if we lose today because NYT odds.  I don't get those odds at all.  Sure, you can find a wc in the simulator at 10-7 but in those scenarios, any one of 3 or 4 games goes the other way and we are out.  That doesn't seem like good odds to me.

I don't see them winning today. Their offense is still that much better than it was under Dorsey. They still only scored 20 points last week and didn't make any adjustments after half time.  I think they will have a let down game somewhere in the next 3

[Scott7975]

Just now, Jrb1979 said:

I don't see them winning today. Their offense is still that much better than it was under Dorsey. They still only scored 20 points last week and didn't make any adjustments after half time.  I think they will have a let down game somewhere in the next 3

 

We going to find out in a few hours.  First team this year that has scared me really.  They have the pass rushers, they have the back end coverage.  They have the best offense in the NFL right now.  A lot of talent on that team. We going to need Diggs, Davis, Cook, and Allen to all go off.  No dropped passes. At least it's at home.

[Rew]

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If we win today I think we will.  I don't think we lose any of the rest of our schedule.  Today is going to be tough though.  What kills me is all the people that still think this team has a great shot to get a WC if we lose today because NYT odds.  I don't get those odds at all.  Sure, you can find a wc in the simulator at 10-7 but in those scenarios, any one of 3 or 4 games goes the other way and we are out.  That doesn't seem like good odds to me.

The challenge you are having is you over value several teams and have a hard time finding all of the scenarios where we get in at 10-7.   There are a lot of paths for 10-7 to get us in, but there are also many paths where we miss.  Best odds are if we go 3-0 against AFC.  Before today's games we really do have better than 50/50 shot at wc if we end 10-7.  I'm not happy with 50/50 (or even 60/40), and would much rather win out so we don't have to worry about it, but you seem to be oblivious to the real chance that we get in at 10-7.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Rew

[DBilz2500]

3 minutes ago, Rew said:

The challenge you are having is you over value several teams and have a hard time finding all of the scenarios where we get in at 10-6.   There are a lot of paths for 10-6 to get us in, but there are also many paths where we miss.  Best odds are if we go 3-0 against AFC.  Before today's games we really do have better than 50/50 shot at wc if we end 10-6.  I'm not happy with 50/50 (or even 60/40), and would much rather win out so we don't have to worry about it, but you seem to be oblivious to the real chance that we get in at 10-6.

10-7*. 17 game season now 

[DapperCam]

16 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If we win today I think we will.  I don't think we lose any of the rest of our schedule.  Today is going to be tough though.  What kills me is all the people that still think this team has a great shot to get a WC if we lose today because NYT odds.  I don't get those odds at all.  Sure, you can find a wc in the simulator at 10-7 but in those scenarios, any one of 3 or 4 games goes the other way and we are out.  That doesn't seem like good odds to me.

 

I think Bills get in at 10-7. I just think the teams tied/ahead of us are going to lose games.

Browns - Bears, at Texans, Jets, at Bengals (have to go 2-2)
Colts - at Falcons, Raiders, Texans (have to go 2-1)

Texans - at Titans, Browns, Titans, at Colts (have to go 3-1)
Steelers - Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens (have to go 3-0)

Bengals - at Steelers, at Chiefs, Browns (have to go 2-1)
Broncos - Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders (have to go 3-0)
Bills - Cowboys, at Chargers, Pats, at Dolphins (have to go 3-1)

The only 2 teams I feel confident will reach 10-7 are the Colts and Browns. Steelers are done, no way they win out. Texans will likely drop 2 more with Stroud out. Broncos probably won't win out. That leaves the Bengals. They will lose to KC, but we need them to either drop the Steelers or Browns game.

[Rew]

2 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

10-7*. 17 game season now 

Ty

[CodeMonkey]

15 hours ago, DapperCam said:

NYT playoff simulator says 71% chance of playoffs if we win tomorrow and the Dolphins lose with today’s results. Texans or Browns losing bumps it up to 75%.

 

Seems like this model considers the division to be our best path.

 

 

What else ya got

[HappyDays]

So let's assume we win out but Miami beats the Cowboys and Ravens. For us to get in as a wildcard we need 2 of these teams to drop to 7 losses:

 

Browns (currently at 5 losses)

Bengals (6 losses)

Colts (6 losses)

Texans (6 losses)

 

Browns play the Texans and Bengals still. We should root for them to win out.

 

Texans and Colts still play so that is a freebie to knock one of them down to 7 losses.

 

Bengals still play the Chiefs and Browns. I'd be shocked if they win both of those.

 

So basically if we win out we are all but guaranteed a wildcard spot.

[bills6969]

Just now, HappyDays said:

So let's assume we win out but Miami beats the Cowboys and Ravens. For us to get in as a wildcard we need 2 of these teams to drop to 7 losses:

 

Browns (currently at 5 losses)

Bengals (6 losses)

Colts (6 losses)

Texans (6 losses)

 

Browns play the Texans and Bengals still. We should root for them to win out.

 

Texans and Colts still play so that is a freebie to knock one of them down to 7 losses.

 

Bengals still play the Chiefs and Browns. I'd be shocked if they win both of those.

 

So basically if we win out we are all but guaranteed a wildcard spot.

There’s no question that we will make the playoffs if we win out.  Bengals and Browns play each other and so do Texans and Colts, it’s guaranteed that there will be at least two more team with at 7 losses that are currently log jammed at 8-6.

[Warcodered]

 

We're at the door let us in.

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

There’s no question that we will make the playoffs if we win out.

 

There is technically a path for that not to happen, but it's less than .1% likely. Basically the Dolphins would have to beat the Cowboys and Ravens, Bengals would have to win out, Colts would have to win out, Browns would have to lose to only the Bengals but win their other 2 games. And probably some other games would have to go a certain way too.

[DapperCam]

In theory the Bills could be in a playoff spot next week and control their own destiny to take the #2 seed.

 

Starts tonight with the Ravens knocking off the Jags.

[zow2]

There’s just no way if we win out we’re not in.   But there is also a scenario the Bills beat Pats and LAC but lose at Miami.  i don’t know if that knocks us out entirely or not?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

So let's assume we win out but Miami beats the Cowboys and Ravens. For us to get in as a wildcard we need 2 of these teams to drop to 7 losses:

 

 

 

0.001% chance of that happening. at least 65% chance the Dolphins lose both those games. They should be thrilled to get a split. 

[bills6969]

I think we’re on a collision course for the Dolphins game to be for the division.  Winner takes the division, the loser possibly doesn’t get a wildcard spot (which is scary to think about)

[zow2]

We need the Raiders to step up and gonna root hard for KC to smother Cincinnati in a couple weeks.

[BigDingus]

So the Week 15 playoff scenario I predicted that would still allow the Bills to make the 7th seed played out nearly perfect.

 

I was trying to predict worst case scenarios that still allow us a path without winning the division, but we're already ahead of schedule with a win today!

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills  ❌

-Bengals def. vs Vikings ✅

-Colts def. vs Steelers ✅

-Lions def. Broncos ✅

-Texans def. Titans ✅

-Browns def. Bears ✅

-Dolphins def. Jets ✅

 

Now the Bills just need to take care of business against the teams they're expected to beat, and things are looking very good.