Notes from the Cinci Game

[Beast]

I like what you said about we aren’t fast as an offense. That is so true and it seems we do nothing to attempt to take advantage of the speed we do have.

 

For instance, it seems we almost always have Cook slip out of the backfield and sit underneath. I have no issue with this as it is a nice 5-8 yard gain as coverage from all angles quickly converge. The point being Cook is stationary when he catches the ball. 

 

Cook is a very fast player. I don’t recall ever seeing him deployed on a wheel route that he may actually be able to just use flat out speed to beat defenders for a big play. I’m not trying to compare era’s but Thurman Thomas was used on these routes very successfully and though Thurman was a better receiving threat than Cook is, Cook is faster than Thurman was. I’d love to see the Bills at least try this. And not ***** can it if it doesn’t work the first time. Give the defense something else to think about.

 

And I won’t even get into the way Harty is not being used.

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Beast

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

It’s frustrating to continually see us playing with zone eyes on these zone blitzes - man match and give your rush a chance.

 

Sounds like a coaching issue, yes? We talk a lot about player execution versus coaching on here, but it seems to me that the former is following from the latter. I don't believe, for example, that a seasoned veteran like Micah Hyde would be making errors like that on his own if he was being prepared the right way. Similarly I don't believe Josh Allen would take a 1v1 deep shot to Deonte Harty if he was being prepared the right away. I think on both sides of the ball there is a big lack of detail from the coaching, and a lack of understanding of each player's strengths/weaknesses, and this is leading to many of these errors that we attribute solely to player execution.

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by HappyDays

[Beck Water]

21 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Both Bengals lines just look stronger and faster on tape

 

I don't know how much of that is due to scheme but it's like they knew they were going to win

 

This is just my opinion, but I thought the Bills played like they didn't want to be in Cincinnati in that stadium playing the Bengals that night.  I think if you looked at different tape of our lines and of the Bengals lines against different opponents, you might think the opposite.

 

I'd love some of the guys here who have played, especially on OL or DL to comment, but I've been told (by players/former players at different levels) that "defense (meaning DL) is a state of mind" and "you win in your mind first" (that from a HOF LT).  That's what's behind Marv Levy's "where else would you rather be than right here, right now" and Poyer's "Be where your feet are".  You have to 100% be in the game, mentally and physically, or you make mental mistakes on your assignment and get physically whupped.  And if you do get physically whupped on a play, you have to flush it and focus on the next play.

 

People think football players are big dumb galoots and maybe there's some of that at the HS and at the lower college level, but professional football is clearly an elite mental game that also involves beating the crap out of the guy you're assigned to beat.  Yes, guys can and will at times be physically overmatched, but at the professional level there's not usually that huge of a difference between backups and starters that an un-dinged backup who is 100% mentally in the game and physically revved up can't hold his own or beat an opposing starter who is a bit dinged (by mid season they all are), hesitant (thinking too much) or mentally, just a little bit somewhere else.

 

I think that stadium and evening right now is Bad Times, Bad Times for the Bills and they're all thinking about it.  They're trying not to think about it - no doubt they've talked things through as a team and in position meetings and their sports psychologists and chaplains have been busy.  But there's a "don't think about elephants" aspect.  Even for players who are not super-stitious but only a "little stitious" it brings back very bad times.  I thought having Damar brought into the locker and into a suite during the Bengals playoff game backfired on the team.  And I think having Damien Harris injured earlier this season and carted off hit them hard and carried over into the following week.

 

I don't know how the coaches get the team over this.  I think this may be one area where McDermott's coaching style of building a family where the players get to know about each other's backgrounds and lives and where he tries also to get to know the players as people and make it clear he's concerned about them and cares about them as people, may work against him a bit vs. a coach who keeps his distance and just chews ass.  And I think McDermott gets a bit overloaded on weeks like this, where he's trying to be HC, DC, and keep an open door for any concerns.

Yeah, the Bengals were there too, but Damar isn't THEIR teammate and brother, and they were shortly afterwards able to get fired up to a froth by the idea of how unfair the league's solution was to them.  Maybe there's a lesson there, in that I'm sure the coaches played their part in "selling" that idea and frothing them up.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Beck Water

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

One of the notes I have from the Cincy game is that the Bills‘s defense didn’t actually start putting the clamps down on the Bengals offense after their first two touchdown drives. What actually happened is the Bengals started committing dumb penalties and killing their own drives.

 

after the two touchdown drives to open the game by the Bengals offense, their next two possessions were both ended on penalties. One possession, I believe, even had multiple offenses penalties that forced them to punt.

 

so in the first half, the Bengals offense scored three touchdowns on five possessions, and in reality the only reason they didn’t score points on all five possessions was due to them shooting themselves in the foot.

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

One of the notes I have from the Cincy game is that the Bills‘s defense didn’t actually start putting the clamps down on the Bengals offense after their first two touchdown drives. What actually happened is the Bengals started committing dumb penalties and killing their own drives.

 

after the two touchdown drives to open the game by the Bengals offense, their next two possessions were both ended on penalties. One possession, I believe, even had multiple offenses penalties that forced them to punt.

 

so in the first half, the Bengals offense scored three touchdowns on five possessions, and in reality the only reason they didn’t score points on all five possessions was due to them shooting themselves in the foot.

 

Yep. After Cincy's 2nd possession I sent my buddy a text saying "McD has no answers. Best we can hope for is Bengals to stop themselves."

 

And then we got lucky on the next 2 possessions as they did exactly that.

 

The only real play our Defense made was when Joseph stuffed Burrow on 2nd and 1. And that was just the player doing it himself. Then the wheels came off for the Bengals and they ended up in 3rd and 15 and 4th and 20. All self-inflicted as we just held on for dear life.

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[HoofHearted]

34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sounds like a coaching issue, yes? We talk a lot about player execution versus coaching on here, but it seems to me that the former is following from the latter. I don't believe, for example, that a seasoned veteran like Micah Hyde would be making errors like that on his own if he was being prepared the right way. Similarly I don't believe Josh Allen would take a 1v1 deep shot to Deonte Harty if he was being prepared the right away. I think on both sides of the ball there is a big lack of detail from the coaching, and a lack of understanding of each player's strengths/weaknesses, and this is leading to many of these errors that we attribute solely to player execution.

 

The eye discipline on zone blitzes, yes. The 1v1 from Allen, no. That's just him playing within the scheme and taking the match-up he likes. In McDermott's defense too you can clearly see on film there has been an emphasis on details since he took over. Footwork and eyes have been much improved - you can really see the difference when the back-ups come in.

[HoofHearted]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Thanks for this.  What’s frustrating to me about what you’re describing is that on both sides of the ball, for the most part (excepting Torrence, Kincaid, Dorian), these are players who have been playing in these schemes for quite awhile now.  It seems like they are not practicing the right way.  You’re describing post-snap execution errors not schematic issues.  Are they simply not preparing enough?

I don't think it's a preparation issue. I'll put it this way - it's hard to pre-determine human reactions. What I mean by that is individual player movements post-snap will not look the same every time they do something - there will be variance simply because those guys are human too. So for example - from a pre-snap look a player could have a preconceived idea of what coverage a team is playing. However, if post-snap the defender is slow to react or diagnose what is going on that will delay our receivers post-snap processing which can then throw off the timing of a concept. It's not that our guys are doing the wrong things all the time. More often it's timings that are thrown off.

[HoofHearted]

2 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

Thank you for the write up, this is fascinating stuff and really helps me understand what’s going on.

 

For such a complex offense, it sure does look vanilla though. Maybe that’s why some guys can’t get on the field or are invisible when they do, they don’t have the head for it.

 

Seems to me the burden is on the players to figure out the coverage pre snap, then adjust their routes post snap using 1-4 options depending on where they are when they hit their decision point, then be on the same page with Josh at that decision point. Yikes! Takes a lot of the burden off Dorsey to outsmart the DC. Instead, he has such a complex offense with man/zone beaters built in to most plays that he can say “Hey, if you guys just did these 5 things correctly pre and post snap the play would have been a success”. That’s a lot to ask on every play especially when the explosive plays are taken away and we have to march down the field.

 

 

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

 

It's definitely not as complicated as it sounds. In the simplest form it's run to where the defenders aren't. Is it more to handle mentally than just a pre-determined concept, sure, but from my experience players love it because it gives them the opportunity to be open every time.

1 hour ago, Beast said:

I like what you said about we aren’t fast as an offense. That is so true and it seems we do nothing to attempt to take advantage of the speed we do have.

 

For instance, it seems we almost always have Cook slip out of the backfield and sit underneath. I have no issue with this as it is a nice 5-8 yard gain as coverage from all angles quickly converge. The point being Cook is stationary when he catches the ball. 

 

Cook is a very fast player. I don’t recall ever seeing him deployed on a wheel route that he may actually be able to just use flat out speed to beat defenders for a big play. I’m not trying to compare era’s but Thurman Thomas was used on these routes very successfully and though Thurman was a better receiving threat than Cook is, Cook is faster than Thurman was. I’d love to see the Bills at least try this. And not ***** can it if it doesn’t work the first time. Give the defense something else to think about.

 

And I won’t even get into the way Harty is not being used.

 

 

 

Cook is used on wheels every time we run mesh, and is the first read on that concept the majority of the time. We've also split him out when we go empty to try and get him the ball in the open field. Can they do more of it, certainly, but it's definitely been done to some degree.

[RunTheBall]

27 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, RunTheBall said:

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

I think player execution isn't even the real issue tbh

 

imo we lack offensive players w elite physical traits. OP mentioned it and I have been saying it since week 3 or so that Diggs looks to have lost a half step. The rest of the skill players outside Allen are not physically imposing so scheme has to win too often.

[DrDawkinstein]

34 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

 

It's definitely not as complicated as it sounds. In the simplest form it's run to where the defenders aren't. Is it more to handle mentally than just a pre-determined concept, sure, but from my experience players love it because it gives them the opportunity to be open every time.

 

1 minute ago, RunTheBall said:

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

 

I believe a knock on Dorsey is that he isnt building more out of those same looks.

 

Sure, the idea is to come out in the same look over and over, and once the Defense thinks they know what we are going to do then do something unexpected. But it doesnt seem like we ever get to that second phase of the unexpected.

 

We come out in the same vanilla look and run the same concepts over and over.

 

And I also believe it is to the point that smart Defenses (like Cincy) know what our reads and routes are, and bait Josh into making certain low percentage throws based on giving him certain pre-snap looks. And there is nothing coming from Dorsey to adjust that.

[HoofHearted]

10 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Now that is something I had never considered - that looking vanilla is something you want it to look like to an armchair coach/GM like myself. Makes sense given there are multiply post snap reads/options that can be implemented on each play.

 

Unfortunately, you are shifting my opinion to this is more of a player execution issue than a pure Dorsey issue (although I’m sure it’s a mix of both).  Damn, I really like when I can hate on one guy for all our problems. Ahh well… hahah

It's definitely a mixture of both. We've seen way more man coverage this year than I can remember us seeing in the past and a lot of that has to do with our scheme. The route conversion stuff gets nullified if you don't have a zone defender you can make wrong every snap. I don't think we've done a great job in man coverage from a scheme standpoint from Dorsey's end, but also an execution standpoint from the player side. We're doing a lot of "win your 1v1" instead of scheming guys open using crossers to run away from coverage or using rubs to get guys separation. 

[Beast]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

To your first point - that's exactly what you want. When you watch a game and without understanding what is happening our offense looks extremely vanilla. That's what makes it so hard to defend, because if you come into the game thinking I just need to stop these however many route concepts and then you go out to stop those you won't even see those routes because they'll be converted to something different. Now obviously this isn't the case on every concept, but we do have quite a few that are.

 

It's definitely not as complicated as it sounds. In the simplest form it's run to where the defenders aren't. Is it more to handle mentally than just a pre-determined concept, sure, but from my experience players love it because it gives them the opportunity to be open every time.

Cook is used on wheels every time we run mesh, and is the first read on that concept the majority of the time. We've also split him out when we go empty to try and get him the ball in the open field. Can they do more of it, certainly, but it's definitely been done to some degree.

OK, thanks for that. I don’t have all 22 access or anything like that.

 

Is he getting separation? Is there a reason you feel they aren’t going to him at all? Covered well?

Edited November 10, 2023 by Beast

[HoofHearted]

5 minutes ago, Beast said:

OK, thanks for ghat. I don’t have all 22 access or anything like that.

 

Is he getting separation? Is there a reason you feel they aren’t going to him at all? Covered well?

I dunno, he's been open often on the wheel and Josh just looks him off. It's frustrating at times.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

45 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think player execution isn't even the real issue tbh

 

imo we lack offensive players w elite physical traits. OP mentioned it and I have been saying it since week 3 or so that Diggs looks to have lost a half step. The rest of the skill players outside Allen are not physically imposing so scheme has to win too often.

This is where I'm at. 

 

Hoof Hearted is talking about running to where the defenders aren't. 

 

Who is capable of doing that on this offense? 

 

I think Diggs looks as good as he's ever been. I haven't noticed a step loss. He's sudden, he's shifty, he's precise, he catches everything, and has just enough speed (4.45-4.49ish) to get behind people. Maybe the advanced metrics would show that he used to average a bit more separation, somebody posted he's at ~2.65 yards this year. 

 

But back to the point, is it any wonder that the Bills select a consensus 1st Rounder and in 6-games he's passed everyone else and is now the #2 option in this offense? 

 

I think the All-22, analysis, has shown Allen is turning down the hot reads and check downs sometimes, he's not getting the ball to Cook enough, but even Hoof Hearted and Chris Simms and I just heard Greg Cosell say it as well - this is not a very fast/talented offense. 

 

Could Allen have thrown to the middle of the field more and let Harty run away from Awozie on the coverage? Yes.  

 

But I do think there is a mismatch in the way our QB wants to play and the personnel they've handed him. I get the point that NFL defenses have really made it harder to get deep since Mahomes exploded onto the scene in 2018, but I'm sorry, there hasn't been much investment at WR in Allen's tenure here.

 

Last year the bottom 5 of the WR room was: Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Cole Beasley, John Brown. I'm mean Allen got 35 TDs out of that group with Diggs, Davis and Knox. 

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I dunno, he's been open often on the wheel and Josh just looks him off. It's frustrating at times.

 

It seemed like Josh was hitting Cook immediately in those week 2 and 3 games when our Offense was clicking. Then he gets away from it because... reasons....

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is where I'm at. 

 

Hoof Hearted is talking about running to where the defenders aren't. 

 

Who is capable of doing that on this offense? 

 

I think Diggs looks as good as he's ever been. I haven't noticed a step loss. He's sudden, he's shifty, he's precise, he catches everything, and has just enough speed (4.45-4.49ish) to get behind people. Maybe the advanced metrics would show that he used to average a bit more separation, somebody posted he's at ~2.65 yards this year. 

 

But back to the point, is it any wonder that the Bills select a consensus 1st Rounder and in 6-games he's passed everyone else and is now the #2 option in this offense? 

 

I think the All-22, analysis, has shown Allen is turning down the hot reads and check downs sometimes, he's not getting the ball to Cook enough, but even Hoof Hearted and Chris Simms and I just heard Greg Cosell say it as well - this is not a very talented offense. 

 

Could Allen have thrown to the middle of the field more and let Harty run away from Awozie on the coverage? Yes.  

 

But I do think there is a mismatch in the way our QB wants to play and the personnel they've handed him. I get the point that NFL defenses have really made it harder to get deep since Mahomes exploded onto the scene in 2018, but I'm sorry, there hasn't been much investment at WR in Allen's tenure here.

 

Last year the bottom 5 of the WR room was: Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Cole Beasley, John Brown. I'm mean Allen got 35 TDs out of that group with Diggs, Davis and Knox. 

 

 

 

I have been banging this drum for 3 years now

 

It's a mini miracle imo a collection of 3rd-5th rounders at skill positions on offense have generated as much production as we have

[Straight Hucklebuck]

To me, when you look at the players that are on the field all the time for the Bills, Cook is the next lever that could be pulled for more output in the pass game. He's out there all the time, and his routes are defined. 

 

You wouldn't have to manufacture touches for him in the same way you would with Deonte Harty seemingly. 

 

Because Harty either runs flat routes or go's. 

 

It's been the two attempted long balls (Jets, Bengals) and the successful one against the Jags. 

 

Otherwise it's been just dump offs towards the sidelines.

[HoofHearted]

17 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is where I'm at. 

 

Hoof Hearted is talking about running to where the defenders aren't. 

 

Who is capable of doing that on this offense? 

 

I think Diggs looks as good as he's ever been. I haven't noticed a step loss. He's sudden, he's shifty, he's precise, he catches everything, and has just enough speed (4.45-4.49ish) to get behind people. Maybe the advanced metrics would show that he used to average a bit more separation, somebody posted he's at ~2.65 yards this year. 

 

But back to the point, is it any wonder that the Bills select a consensus 1st Rounder and in 6-games he's passed everyone else and is now the #2 option in this offense? 

 

I think the All-22, analysis, has shown Allen is turning down the hot reads and check downs sometimes, he's not getting the ball to Cook enough, but even Hoof Hearted and Chris Simms and I just heard Greg Cosell say it as well - this is not a very fast/talented offense. 

 

Could Allen have thrown to the middle of the field more and let Harty run away from Awozie on the coverage? Yes.  

 

But I do think there is a mismatch in the way our QB wants to play and the personnel they've handed him. I get the point that NFL defenses have really made it harder to get deep since Mahomes exploded onto the scene in 2018, but I'm sorry, there hasn't been much investment at WR in Allen's tenure here.

 

Last year the bottom 5 of the WR room was: Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Cole Beasley, John Brown. I'm mean Allen got 35 TDs out of that group with Diggs, Davis and Knox. 

 

 

 

All of them are capable of getting separation on the conversion routes - that's the whole point of them. They are designed so that anyone (regardless of physical skill) has a chance to be open simply by running to green grass as opposed to into a coverage. That's why we've seen so much man this year. Teams have become savvy to it and aren't allowing us to run our conversion routes as often and we do not have the guys to beat man coverage consistently. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I have been banging this drum for 3 years now

 

It's a mini miracle imo a collection of 3rd-5th rounders at skill positions on offense have generated as much production as we have

 

Your WR investment:

 

2019

Cole Beasley, John Brown are FAs. Brown is 29. Beasley is 30.

No WRs Drafted

 

2020

Diggs is de-facto 1st Rounder

Gabe is a 4th rounder. 

Hodgins is a 6th rounder. 

 

2021

Emmanuel Sanders at FA. 34 years old. 1 year deal, retires. 

Marquez Stevenson is a 6th Rounder. 

 

2022

Jamison Crowder is a FA. 29 years old. 1 year deal, leaves team. 

Shakir is a 5th rounder from 2022. 

 

2023

Trent Sherfield is a FA. 27 years old. 1 year deal. 

Deonte Harty is a FA. 26 years old. 

Shorter is a 5th rounder. 

 

 

And we wonder where all the playmaking is. 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

All of them are capable of getting separation on the conversion routes - that's the whole point of them. They are designed so that anyone (regardless of physical skill) has a chance to be open simply by running to green grass as opposed to into a coverage. That's why we've seen so much man this year. Teams have become savvy to it and aren't allowing us to run our conversion routes as often and we do not have the guys to beat man coverage consistently. 

this is what it looks like to amateurs like me on film

 

we don't have the athletes to consistently win vs man when they decide to bracket Diggs

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

All of them are capable of getting separation on the conversion routes - that's the whole point of them. They are designed so that anyone (regardless of physical skill) has a chance to be open simply by running to green grass as opposed to into a coverage. That's why we've seen so much man this year. Teams have become savvy to it and aren't allowing us to run our conversion routes as often and we do not have the guys to beat man coverage consistently. 

The only lever being presented is execute better via Allen taking your check downs more. 

 

The team seemingly doesn't want to use play action more, hurry up, Allen designed runs, modern motion concepts. That stuff comes and goes and both McDermott and Dorsey talk about always changing it up. 

 

Outside of Kincaid expanding his route tree, or Allen pushing even more targets to Diggs, what other real practical buttons does this team have to push that will increase scoring?

 

A lot of it is going to come back on Allen to make even better decisions, increase his completion percentage from 71% to 75%, not turn the ball over at all, and try to squeeze/save an extra scoring drive out per game. 

 

Throws must come out quick, and close to the LOS to mitigate an average Offensive Line and an average run game. 

 

 

[HoofHearted]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The only lever being presented is execute better via Allen taking your check downs more. 

 

The team seemingly doesn't want to use play action more, hurry up, Allen designed runs, modern motion concepts. That stuff comes and goes and both McDermott and Dorsey talk about always changing it up. 

 

Outside of Kincaid expanding his route tree, or Allen pushing even more targets to Diggs, what other real practical buttons does this team have to push that will increase scoring?

 

A lot of it is going to come back on Allen to make even better decisions, increase his completion percentage from 71% to 75%, not turn the ball over at all, and try to squeeze/save an extra scoring drive out per game. 

 

Throws must come out quick, and close to the LOS to mitigate an average Offensive Line and an average run game. 

 

 

Couple things:

 - What do you get out of running play action vs all the man coverage we're seeing?

 - Kincaid runs the entire route tree

 - We just need to be more consistent and stop shooting ourselves in the foot

[Solomon Grundy]

17 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

Your WR investment:

 

2019

Cole Beasley, John Brown are FAs. Brown is 29. Beasley is 30.

No WRs Drafted

 

2020

Diggs is de-facto 1st Rounder

Gabe is a 4th rounder. 

Hodgins is a 6th rounder. 

 

2021

Emmanuel Sanders at FA. 34 years old. 1 year deal, retires. 

Marquez Stevenson is a 6th Rounder. 

 

2022

Jamison Crowder is a FA. 29 years old. 1 year deal, leaves team. 

Shakir is a 5th rounder from 2022. 

 

2023

Trent Sherfield is a FA. 27 years old. 1 year deal. 

Deonte Harty is a FA. 26 years old. 

Shorter is a 5th rounder. 

 

 

And we wonder where all the playmaking is. 

 

 

I want them to spend some early picks to get playmaking WRs in this upcoming draft. Use 2nd and 3rd and target Xavier Legette and Adonai Mitchell

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Couple things:

 - What do you get out of running play action vs all the man coverage we're seeing?

 - Kincaid runs the entire route tree

 - We just need to be more consistent and stop shooting ourselves in the foot

i dont know if this is correct or not, but there are certain sets we use playaction where Allen is significantly more nonchalant selling the playfake

 

is that due to him reading zone/reduced effectiveness of playaction in man or just sloppiness?

[Scott7975]

23 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

Let me try to explain as best I can. Yes, there are a ton of route conversions within our pass game. Those route conversions are based on post-snap reads. There are defined depths at which you need to have made a decision by (this is called the decision point). So as an example lets use the easiest version of this, a two option concept - as an outside receiver I'm staring at the defender lined up across from me as the ball is snapped - if i get to 10 yards (my decision point) and I can touch the defender I'll keep going vertical and win with speed - if i can't touch the defender then I'll shut it down and hitch back to the QB. So to your point - our receivers don't have the autonomy to run whatever they want - the options are defined as well as the decision point. Route depths, however, can become an issue when first learning the scheme because of post-snap processing time.

 

Now the example I gave is the very simplest form. Our guys can go out there at times with 5 or more options available to them based on the various coverages they are seeing from the defense and where people are (i.e. overhangs, high safeties, etc.). It takes a ton of reps to nail down, but is extremely difficult to stop if executed correctly because you essentially have a built in answer for every coverage. If you want to learn more about it look up Art Briles and the Deep Choice concept he made a living on while at Baylor.

 

Thank you for this explanation, and the write up above of course. These things are better to me than the breakdown videos of a couple plays people do.  This part is what I have been trying to explain but I am football stupid. 

 

In any case... maybe this is possibly why Josh seems to hold the ball sometimes. I think maybe he either expected the receiver elsewhere because he read the play different than the receiver and one of them is wrong, maybe even waiting for the receiver/defender to declare, or things like that (again i'm football stupid. my brain also doesn't function and I often search for words that I know but can't find haha.)  This could also be why we sometimes find multiple receivers garbling up the same area and also puts Josh in a rough spot.

 

The other thing I would like to ask is... a lot of people say this is the same offense that Daboll ran.  I dunno if it is or not but to me it does not look like the same offense. Either way, this offense might be better long term if these guys get the execution down better, but I feel at this point they should back off a bit because it isn't working for them and this season is just going to fall hard if they don't get back to some basics.

23 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think the Bills are already here, maybe by virtue of Knox's injury. 

 

Diggs leads the league in targets - 97 - tied with Hill @ 10.78 per game.

 

Chase is the only one who has more on a per-game basis with 11.6 (93 in 8 games). 

 

But you look at Kincaid in the last 3 games, and he's virtually caught Davis is targets. Kincaid 26 targets in his last 3 games (45 overall) to Davis who has 19 in his last 3 games (49 overall). 

 

Shakir has 14 in the last 3 games. 

 

Next step will be to start breaking up Gabe's snap count. Rotate in Harty and Sherfield. 

 

I thought the Bills correctly ditched the run early in Cincinnati and didn't use it much until the Kincaid fumble drive when Murray converted two 2nd and shorts. 

 

 

 

I think on that last drive that Davis wasn't even on the field.  I dunno if true or not as I didn't pay attention, but I read that somewhere.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Scott7975

[HoofHearted]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

i dont know if this is correct or not, but there are certain sets we use playaction where Allen is significantly more nonchalant selling the playfake

 

is that due to him reading zone/reduced effectiveness of playaction in man or just sloppiness?

I'd imagine sloppiness. You're not going to want it to look any different regardless of coverage.

[Scott7975]

23 hours ago, boyst said:

That flea flicker should have absolutely been schemed to the reverse man since they run man coverage so tight. 

 

One thing I will say about that play is it actually looked smooth.  A lot of times I see them run some play like that it looks clunky and fails just because of that. Yes, they should have just went with the reverse though. It was there.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

13 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Couple things:

 - What do you get out of running play action vs all the man coverage we're seeing?

 - Kincaid runs the entire route tree

 - We just need to be more consistent and stop shooting ourselves in the foot

1. We're in agreement that there is a general lack of size and speed across the full roster of Bills receivers. And Orlovsky has said the lasting image of the Bills offense is a static 2 x 2 shotgun. Against the Bengals we ran 12% play action. Since we're not going to utilize motion, and there is no real running threat in our RPO because Allen doesn't/isn't allowed to keep the ball, what is another lever in the quick passing game to buy a half second of hesitation inside? 

 

2. Kincaid's longest catch on the year is 22 yards. So if he's catching deep passes, I've missed it. Doesn't mean he's not running them though, I haven't seen Next Gen charting on Kincaid's routes. Since Week 7, Kincaid has a 76.3% route run rate, a 21% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. So a lot of routes that still require his YAC ability. 

 

3. Yeah, this is squeezing more blood out of the stone. Allen can process better, take the check downs more and play death by 1000 paper cuts more. Progression would be Diggs (already at 10.8 targets per game - maybe get that to 12?), Kincaid (88.9% catch rate), Shakir (95% catch rate) and Cook (85% catch rate). 

[HoofHearted]

6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thank you for this explanation, and the write up above of course. These things are better to me than the breakdown videos of a couple plays people do.  This part is what I have been trying to explain but I am football stupid. 

 

In any case... maybe this is possibly why Josh seems to hold the ball sometimes. I think maybe he either expected the receiver elsewhere because he read the play different than the receiver and one of them is wrong, maybe even waiting for the receiver/defender to declare, or things like that (again i'm football stupid. my brain also doesn't function and I often search for words that I know but can't find haha.)  This could also be why we sometimes find multiple receivers garbling up the same area and also puts Josh in a rough spot.

 

The other thing I would like to ask is... a lot of people say this is the same offense that Daboll ran.  I dunno if it is or not but to me it does not look like the same offense. Either way, this offense might be better long term if these guys get the execution down better, but I feel at this point they should back off a bit because it isn't working for them and this season is just going to fall hard if they don't get back to some basics.

It's a little of everything with Josh as far as holding onto the ball to long. There have certainly been times him and the receiver haven't been on the same page that have forced him to hold onto it, there are also times where he just waits for them to work to a bigger window, and then there are others where he just needs to recognize the play is dead downfield and take the checkdown before it disappears on you too.

 

It's the same base system. I'm sure the terminology is all carry over as well as a lot of the pass game. What has been different is the run game. Dorsey has put his own spin on that for sure.

[HappyDays]

28 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

What do you get out of running play action vs all the man coverage we're seeing?

 

So I get what you're saying that there is no inherent schematic advantage there. But if you look at his 2023 splits...

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/splits/2023/

 

...he is performing much better in play action.

 

-127.3 passer rating and a 1.7% sack percentage in play action

-93.3 passer rating and a 4.5% sack percentage in non play action.

 

So something is going on there. I notice that his under center passer rating is 130.7 and his shotgun passer rating is 93.8. I would guess most of our play action comes from under center. So maybe it isn't about play action at all, maybe that's just a correlative positive stat to under center passing?

 

One theory I have had is that Allen is more in rhythm and comfortable throwing the ball in play action and/or from under center. It might not be a schematic advantage at all, but is it possible that Allen for whatever reason simply peforms better when going through that mechanics cycle?

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said:

1. We're in agreement that there is a general lack of size and speed across the full roster of Bills receivers. And Orlovsky has said the lasting image of the Bills offense is a static 2 x 2 shotgun. Against the Bengals we ran 12% play action. Since we're not going to utilize motion, and there is no real running threat in our RPO because Allen doesn't/isn't allowed to keep the ball, what is another lever in the quick passing game to buy a half second of hesitation inside? 

 

2. Kincaid's longest catch on the year is 22 yards. So if he's catching deep passes, I've missed it. Doesn't mean he's not running them though, I haven't seen Next Gen charting on Kincaid's routes. Since Week 7, Kincaid has a 76.3% route run rate, a 21% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. So a lot of routes that still require his YAC ability. 

 

3. Yeah, this is squeezing more blood out of the stone. Allen can process better, take the check downs more and play death by 1000 paper cuts more. Progression would be Diggs (already at 10.8 targets per game - maybe get that to 12?), Kincaid (88.9% catch rate), Shakir (95% catch rate) and Cook (85% catch rate). 

So against the Bengals it was apparent selling playaction was not effective

 

LBs did not come down on run keys at all...it may still work against other defenses but it really does seem like their defense is perfectly situated to dictate to our offense and imo it stems from how dominant they are able to be w a 4man front seemingly not worried about winning on downs where run/pass are both available to offense

[Scott7975]

Just now, HoofHearted said:

It's a little of everything with Josh as far as holding onto the ball to long. There have certainly been times him and the receiver haven't been on the same page that have forced him to hold onto it, there are also times where he just waits for them to work to a bigger window, and then there are others where he just needs to recognize the play is dead downfield and take the checkdown before it disappears on you too.

 

It's the same base system. I'm sure the terminology is all carry over as well as a lot of the pass game. What has been different is the run game. Dorsey has put his own spin on that for sure.

 

Thanks. Maybe just Beasley, Brown/Emanual Sanders executed it better or defenses are just better prepared for it today. Josh seemed to execute better back then too though. At least to me.  I know we had clunkers with Daboll as well but nothing like this 5 game stretch in a row since rookie Josh.

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

1. We're in agreement that there is a general lack of size and speed across the full roster of Bills receivers. And Orlovsky has said the lasting image of the Bills offense is a static 2 x 2 shotgun. Against the Bengals we ran 12% play action. Since we're not going to utilize motion, and there is no real running threat in our RPO because Allen doesn't/isn't allowed to keep the ball, what is another lever in the quick passing game to buy a half second of hesitation inside? 

I mean there's only so man ways an offense can line up. 2x1, 2x2, 3x1, 4x1, or some version of an over set. In general most teams sit in a 2x2 as it puts the most stress on a defense because the entire field is a threat because there are concepts being run on both sides. The shifts and motions are a double edged sword - when we use them we use them effectively to scheme guys open. Not sure we'd get the same results if we did them all the time because teams would prepare for them. On the other hand using shifts and motions force defenses to talk and CoS shifts/motions force teams to shift or bump at one of the three levels in their defense (this is what I'd like to see more of).

 

On RPO's Allen is the run threat in the first place. We've primarily run these from a Dart concept this season, but we've also used inside zone and mid-zone to RPO off of as well. IMO they're at their most effective when using some type of gap scheme and determining which gap scheme to use would depend on what the backers are keying. Your back is the run threat in those situations, but again, the way to nullify the RPO is by playing man coverage.

 

One thing I mentioned in the OP was I'd like to see them use Gabe like they did in the Bucs game - in condensed sets running, essentially, spot routes off of linebacker drops. We got in condensed and marched down the field multiple times on the Bucs just running Curl/Arrow and Gabe just worked over top the backer drop and curled inside him for a quick and easy 8 yards. He doesn't need to be overly twitchy to win those match-ups - just have to be able to work off of a backer. Condensed sets also force most teams into zone coverage/zone concepts on that side of the ball.

 

14 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

2. Kincaid's longest catch on the year is 22 yards. So if he's catching deep passes, I've missed it. Doesn't mean he's not running them though, I haven't seen Next Gen charting on Kincaid's routes. Since Week 7, Kincaid has a 76.3% route run rate, a 21% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. So a lot of routes that still require his YAC ability. 

We haven't targeted him a bunch downfield, but he definitely runs the entire route tree.

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So I get what you're saying that there is no inherent schematic advantage there. But if you look at his 2023 splits...

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/splits/2023/

 

...he is performing much better in play action.

 

-127.3 passer rating and a 1.7% sack percentage in play action

-93.3 passer rating and a 4.5% sack percentage in non play action.

 

So something is going on there. I notice that his under center passer rating is 130.7 and his shotgun passer rating is 93.8. I would guess most of our play action comes from under center. So maybe it isn't about play action at all, maybe that's just a correlative positive stat to under center passing?

 

One theory I have had is that Allen is more in rhythm and comfortable throwing the ball in play action and/or from under center. It might not be a schematic advantage at all, but is it possible that Allen for whatever reason simply peforms better when going through that mechanics cycle?

 

Would love to see those splits broken down by coverage - think that'd be very telling.

14 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Thanks. Maybe just Beasley, Brown/Emanual Sanders executed it better or defenses are just better prepared for it today. Josh seemed to execute better back then too though. At least to me.  I know we had clunkers with Daboll as well but nothing like this 5 game stretch in a row since rookie Josh.

Teams have definitely adjusted. We weren't seeing this amount of man coverage before.

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is just my opinion, but I thought the Bills played like they didn't want to be in Cincinnati in that stadium playing the Bengals that night.  I think if you looked at different tape of our lines and of the Bengals lines against different opponents, you might think the opposite.

 

I'd love some of the guys here who have played, especially on OL or DL to comment, but I've been told (by players/former players at different levels) that "defense (meaning DL) is a state of mind" and "you win in your mind first" (that from a HOF LT).  That's what's behind Marv Levy's "where else would you rather be than right here, right now" and Poyer's "Be where your feet are".  You have to 100% be in the game, mentally and physically, or you make mental mistakes on your assignment and get physically whupped.  And if you do get physically whupped on a play, you have to flush it and focus on the next play.

 

People think football players are big dumb galoots and maybe there's some of that at the HS and at the lower college level, but professional football is clearly an elite mental game that also involves beating the crap out of the guy you're assigned to beat.  Yes, guys can and will at times be physically overmatched, but at the professional level there's not usually that huge of a difference between backups and starters that an un-dinged backup who is 100% mentally in the game and physically revved up can't hold his own or beat an opposing starter who is a bit dinged (by mid season they all are), hesitant (thinking too much) or mentally, just a little bit somewhere else.

 

I think that stadium and evening right now is Bad Times, Bad Times for the Bills and they're all thinking about it.  They're trying not to think about it - no doubt they've talked things through as a team and in position meetings and their sports psychologists and chaplains have been busy.  But there's a "don't think about elephants" aspect.  Even for players who are not super-stitious but only a "little stitious" it brings back very bad times.  I thought having Damar brought into the locker and into a suite during the Bengals playoff game backfired on the team.  And I think having Damien Harris injured earlier this season and carted off hit them hard and carried over into the following week.

 

I don't know how the coaches get the team over this.  I think this may be one area where McDermott's coaching style of building a family where the players get to know about each other's backgrounds and lives and where he tries also to get to know the players as people and make it clear he's concerned about them and cares about them as people, may work against him a bit vs. a coach who keeps his distance and just chews ass.  And I think McDermott gets a bit overloaded on weeks like this, where he's trying to be HC, DC, and keep an open door for any concerns.

Yeah, the Bengals were there too, but Damar isn't THEIR teammate and brother, and they were shortly afterwards able to get fired up to a froth by the idea of how unfair the league's solution was to them.  Maybe there's a lesson there, in that I'm sure the coaches played their part in "selling" that idea and frothing them up.

 

A lot of emotionally driven word salad to theorize that Buffalo is still damaged from that Week 16 game 10 months ago.  I remember the Hamlin injury, at least in part, also cited on TBD then as a major cause for their post-season swoon versus Miami and again hosting Cincinnati.         

 

Maybe there is a team-wide emotional matter, particularly playing in Cincinnati.  But if that's true, it's more because generationally-speaking people aren't taught how to handle grief and tragedy.  I think you theory is offered because culture at large now has a penchant for always trying to find excuses when problems appear.  We can see the adversity, acknowledge it, grieve over it, but still continue.  

 

I was at the Kevin Everett game in '07 and in the ensuing days and weeks don't recall his injury being suggested  here or elsewhere as a potential consideration for team play. In fact, that Bills team went 5-3 afterward and considering they played Pittsburgh and New England the following weeks, one of those losses was the Dallas MNF game and DJ was HC, that's pretty good.  That was about a generation ago, meaning players were later Gen X'ers to early millennials.   

 

Heck, Darryl Stingley was paralyzed in a pre-season game in 1978 and New England went 8-2 to start the season.  And one of those games was at Oakland where the injury happened...a NE win.  

 

As to the general assumption that people think the players are "big dumb galoots" I and many other educated fans around here obviously do not believe that.  Game prep has always been key at the pro level and it seems as though certain players aren't taking it as seriously.  That's a work-ethic issue, not that players are "galoots."  There will always be hard working lower talented players.  There will be less hard working better players.  And there will be the hard-working types with top-end talent.  If there's a work-ethic issue, that's something on management who select and coach the players.  

 

On both issues, it kind of mirrors society at large where people don't have mechanisms to cope with grief nor work as hard as previous generations, including NFL players.  

 

And for the record I'm a late Gen X'er and not playing the "in my day-itis" card.  

 

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Thank you @HoofHearted for sharing your insight.

 

question for you and for all:

 

You believe that we’ve seen more man this season because teams have become savvy to our conversion routes that allow for skill players to run to green grass. Man coverage effectively nullifies that. 
 

So if this is the case, are we not recognizing man coverage pre-snap and getting into man beaters?

 

Is Allen unable to make these kinds of checks?

 

Is this why we’ve seen split field reads of man beaters vs conversions or two man route combinations? 
 

If the conversion philosophy is designed so that we are to have the advantage regardless of physical traits, when teams are taking that away with man coverage, we should be heavily utilizing means to scheme guys the ball in space. 

[HoofHearted]

1 minute ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Thank you @HoofHearted for sharing your insight.

 

question for you and for all:

 

You believe that we’ve seen more man this season because teams have become savvy to our conversion routes that allow for skill players to run to green grass. Man coverage effectively nullifies that. 
 

So if this is the case, are we not recognizing man coverage pre-snap and getting into man beaters?

 

Is Allen unable to make these kinds of checks?

 

Is this why we’ve seen split field reads of man beaters vs conversions or two man route combinations? 
 

If the conversion philosophy is designed so that we are to have the advantage regardless of physical traits, when teams are taking that away with man coverage, we should be heavily utilizing means to scheme guys the ball in space. 

This mostly - but we have to win those match-ups. Outside of Diggs (and possibly Shakir going forward?) we struggle to win those matchups. We've got to scheme them open vs man. Also Josh has to recognize it. He missed one this past game where he read the zone side against man coverage and our man beater backside (I believe it was Shakir on a slant under a rub route) was wide open.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

17 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

One thing I mentioned in the OP was I'd like to see them use Gabe like they did in the Bucs game - in condensed sets running, essentially, spot routes off of linebacker drops. We got in condensed and marched down the field multiple times on the Bucs just running Curl/Arrow and Gabe just worked over top the backer drop and curled inside him for a quick and easy 8 yards. He doesn't need to be overly twitchy to win those match-ups - just have to be able to work off of a backer. Condensed sets also force most teams into zone coverage/zone concepts on that side of the ball.

Tampa certainly looks like an outlier. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviGa01/gamelog/

 

Gabe's played 56 games has a total of 267 career targets. 

 

That's 4.77 targets per game. Career catch rate is 55.8%. 

 

9 catches on 12 targets. The 12 targets is the second most in his regular season career and he's only had 10 or more targets 4 times in his career. 

 

The 9 receptions is the most in his career (6 was he previous high). 

 

 

So with this Coaching Staff I'm not surprised that we see something that works, and then it disappears the next game and you'll only get "game flow" and trying to mix it up as reasons why from Dorsey. 

 

 

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Tampa certainly looks like an outlier. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviGa01/gamelog/

 

Gabe's played 56 games has a total of 267 career targets. 

 

That's 4.77 targets per game. Career catch rate is 55.8%. 

 

9 catches on 12 targets. The 12 targets is the second most in his regular season career and he's only had 10 or more targets 4 times in his career. 

 

The 9 receptions is the most in his career (6 was he previous high). 

 

 

So with this Coaching Staff I'm not surprised that we see something that works, and then it disappears the next game and you'll only get "game flow" and trying to mix it up as reasons why from Dorsey. 

 

 

Without going through all of Cinci's A22 film and figuring out how they play condensed sets I don't have an answer for you either, unfortunately. I was really encouraged by how we used Gabe in that TB game though.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

16 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Without going through all of Cinci's A22 film and figuring out how they play condensed sets I don't have an answer for you either, unfortunately. I was really encouraged by how we used Gabe in that TB game though.

It would be schematic shift from both the way Daboll and Dorsey have employed Davis to shorten his split to the OT (and then possibly have someone - probably Sherfield?) play the X. 

 

I've never seen much of our coordinators choosing to put Gabe anywhere but outside. Even in a 4 wide arrangement.