4 drives ended by dropped passes

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

There is simply no way to backfill for losing your best players. No GM in the entire NFL has a replacement for Matt Milano sitting on the bench.  

 

Once again I never said that there was.  I am specifically discussing the impact of the replacement, which should be obvious since I've stated it in other terms at least a half-dozen times in this thread so far. 

 

I'll give you some data though to validate the point.  

 

Going from White to Elam is huge.  But the reason is a draft failure.  And once again, we were without White last season so that's not a good comp.  He hasn't been great even when has been on the field and hasn't been classic White since last '21.  

 

Going from Milano to whomever (you fill it in), is also resultant from not having better depth, or even another starting LB at anywhere near that level.   All we have is average.  And all of those claiming how well Bernard has been playing are going to see the impact of Bernard now taking over entirely for Milano and the failure to address the LB situation since Lorax left, ... by none other than Beane since that's his responsibility.  For purposes of argument, if I could attribute it to our equipment guy since I don't care, but if we're going to be honest, that drop in talent level is on Beane.  

 

 

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Oh and Jones is having surgery. That is confirmed. He is done for the year. 

 

Thanks for the heads up!!   

 

We'll see how Ford does in his place, and on that note, that loss isn't nearly as impactful as you make out.  The performance drop from Jones to Ford isn't anywhere near what it's going to be from Milano to whomever.  

 

In fact, if you look at Ford's first five seasons, he has more sacks, nearly double the TFL, and more QB Pressures in 13 fewer starts.  He's also 28 to Jones' 32.  The drop there is hardly what it will be from Milano to whomever.  I'm also far from sold that Jones didn't simply shoot a load in the beginning of the season.  I mean he was on pace for absolutely shattering anything he's ever done, which I would find to be ridiculously unlikely.  It's quite possible that his play for most of the rest of the season would be where it's been throughout his career, namely pretty average.  

 

 

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

And I never changed my view on bottom dwellers. That was always specific to the defense that finished the game yesterday. I was very clear about that. They won't have to put up with that D. They have some guys to come back. But they have lost two first team all pros and another key defensive starter for the year. Show me another unit (offense or defense) in the entire league that has already lost that level of player for the season. 

 

Every team has injuries. Not every team has this. And when teams do they generally struggle to make the playoffs. I will say something you will probably agree with now.... I think the Bills are shooting for a wildcard at this point. These are back breaking injuries on D.

 

OK, on that note, I just looked. 

 

Not one other team in the league allowed more 1st-Downs for their opponent yesterday.  

 

Only one team allowed more yards and that was the pathetic Giants' D which allowed 524 to the Fins.  

 

Only one team allowed a greater Time-of-Possession, that was the pathetic Pats.  

 

So what your'e asking everyone to believe is that our D, as fielded yesterday, was all but literally the worst D in the the league yesterday.  

 

Sorry, no sale!  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So what your'e asking everyone to believe is that our D, as fielded yesterday, was all but literally the worst D in the the league yesterday.  

 

Sorry, no sale!  

 

 

 

By the end of the game - yep it was. I have kept saying it - the D that was on the field by the end of that game (when 14 of the 25 points came) was a bottom dweller type defense talent wise.

 

That is NOT the D they will have to play with the rest of the way. They have some guys, especially up front and Benford, to return. But if that D at the end yesterday was what they had to go with the rest of the way the season would basically be dead already. 

 

And I will give you Elam at this stage looks like a huge bust. That is on the GM. Again, I have never even got close to arguing Beane is blameless. Just that down as many guys as the Bills were yesterday is an injury issue not a drafting one. 

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

By the end of the game - yep it was. I have kept saying it - the D that was on the field by the end of that game (when 14 of the 25 points came) was a bottom dweller type defense talent wise.

 

That is NOT the D they will have to play with the rest of the way. They have some guys, especially up front and Benford, to return. But if that D at the end yesterday was what they had to go with the rest of the way the season would basically be dead already. 

 

And I will give you Elam at this stage looks like a huge bust. That is on the GM. Again, I have never even got close to arguing Beane is blameless. Just that down as many guys as the Bills were yesterday is an injury issue not a drafting one. 

 

We'll see how it unfolds.  Interesting to say the least.   

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

We'll see how it unfolds.  Interesting to say the least.   

 

 

It isn't interesting to me it is gutting. I still think they can make the playoffs but you need elite players to win Superbowls. And for the third year in a row (White in 21, Von in 22, Milano in 23) the Bills have lost an elite player to a season ending injury. What makes it worse is just as Tre was finding his best form (Washington and Miami it was the old Tre) we lost him for the year too. 

 

It sucks. 

[PBF81]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't interesting to me it is gutting. I still think they can make the playoffs but you need elite players to win Superbowls. And for the third year in a row (White in 21, Von in 22, Milano in 23) the Bills have lost an elite player to a season ending injury. What makes it worse is just as Tre was finding his best form (Washington and Miami it was the old Tre) we lost him for the year too. 

 

It sucks. 

 

Here's what I see, namely that the teams that have won it recently, had the 16th ranked D and DFL ranked passing D, but the #1 Offense.  (KC last season) 

 

... and the 15th ranked D in '21 along with the 7th ranked Offense.  (Rams)  

 

And in '20, the 3rd ranked Offense and 8th ranked Defense featuring the 21st ranked passing D and a 43-year old QB.  

 

We should be able to do it with an average D and the #1 offense, a QB in his prime and the most versatile QB in the game today, and I see no reason whatsoever why we shouldn't have the #1 Offense in the league this season given the additions/improvements starting with a solid OL.  

 

Now of Torrence, Diggs, and Dawkins go down, then we can talk further.  

 

Not expecting you to agree, just saying that's what I see.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Here's what I see, namely that the teams that have won it recently, had the 16th ranked D and DFL ranked passing D, but the #1 Offense.  (KC last season) 

 

... and the 15th ranked D in '21 along with the 7th ranked Offense.  (Rams)  

 

And in '20, the 3rd ranked Offense and 8th ranked Defense featuring the 21st ranked passing D and a 43-year old QB.  

 

We should be able to do it with an average D and the #1 offense, a QB in his prime and the most versatile QB in the game today, and I see no reason whatsoever why we shouldn't have the #1 Offense in the league this season given the additions/improvements starting with a solid OL.  

 

Now of Torrence, Diggs, and Dawkins go down, then we can talk further.  

 

Not expecting you to agree, just saying that's what I see.  

 

 

 

I see the point. But I see elite players as more important than overall rankings. If the O got hot and played at its best would we have a chance? Sure. But man those 3 season long losses really hurt.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

so....a SECOND   drop that was negated by penalty was still "game killing"?

 

No. My post was referring to one drop from Davis and one drop from Knox. Repeat offenders killing two drives on simple catch opportunities. I don't know what else to tell you, they were backbreaking mistakes.

 

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

The elite WR1's contested pass ending up as an INT was the actual play that killed them

 

Yeah and I said earlier in the thread Diggs' missed opportunity was the biggest momentum swing of them all. But he is an elite WR1. I'm not saying I expect any player to make zero mistakes, that is totally unrealistic. But when you don't offer much on a play to play basis, the mistakes become more glaring. A WR2 either has to be elite in one area or play fundamentally sound football on an extremely consistent level (a WR1 typically gives you both). Give me Jaylen Waddle or Robert Woods (in his prime). Different types of WR but both give you legit #2 ability. Davis is neither. He's a boom or bust WR that has zero elite traits, doesn't run the full route tree, and misses too many of the easy plays to be a reliable #2 option. In a normal offense with an average QB I honestly think he would be a non-factor.

 

For 3.5 quarters before the game got out of hand Allen throwing the ball to Diggs was pretty much our entire offense. Once again, for the 3rd season in a row, everybody else lower on the depth chart is pitching in a disappointing season with a high degree of inconsistency.

[Coach Tuesday]

That drop by Gabe Davis-Scantling-Bey was an absolute killer yesterday.

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I see the point. But I see elite players as more important than overall rankings. If the O got hot and played at its best would we have a chance? Sure. But man those 3 season long losses really hurt.

 

If KC can do it with only one player that logged more than 6 sacks and only one player that made the Pro-Bowl on D, and on 11 total team INTs and not one DB that logged more than 3, and a defensive roster of relative mediocrity other than for Chris Jones, ranking DFL in pass D, and with only Kelce, Smith-Shuster, and Pacheco as notable names on offense, besides Mahomes of course, then we can do it with what we have here now.  

 

Coaching being equal, I'll take Allen, Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Harris, and Murray any day over what KC had last season.  Any day.  

 

If we can't put it together with that offensively speaking, then it's well past time to start looking at coaching, and beyond the OC.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If KC can do it with only one player that logged more than 6 sacks and only one player that made the Pro-Bowl on D, and on 11 total team INTs and not one DB that logged more than 3, and a defensive roster of relative mediocrity other than for Chris Jones, ranking DFL in pass D, and with only Kelce, Smith-Shuster, and Pacheco as notable names on offense, besides Mahomes of course, then we can do it with what we have here now.  

 

Coaching being equal, I'll take Allen, Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Harris, and Murray any day over what KC had last season.  Any day.  

 

If we can't put it together with that offensively speaking, then it's well past time to start looking at coaching, and beyond the OC.  

 

 

 

They had an elite guard and an elite center too. Plus Mahomes, Kelce and Jones. That is 5 elite guys. 

 

We have Allen and Diggs. Maybe Greg, Ed, Von can get to that level. You generally need 4 to 5 genuine elite guys. One us normally (but doesn't have to be) your QB. The positions of the othets matters less.

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They had an elite guard and an elite center too. Plus Mahomes, Kelce and Jones. That is 5 elite guys. 

 

We have Allen and Diggs. Maybe Greg, Ed, Von can get to that level. You generally need 4 to 5 genuine elite guys. One us normally (but doesn't have to be) your QB. The positions of the othets matters less.

 

An elite guard and center on D?  

 

Hmmm ... 

 

Come on now, you know that we were talking about the D here.  

 

But for the record, you're saying now that we're incapable of having the #1 Offense because of our OL then?  
 

Help me understand.  

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

No. My post was referring to one drop from Davis and one drop from Knox. Repeat offenders killing two drives on simple catch opportunities. I don't know what else to tell you, they were backbreaking mistakes.

 

 

Yeah and I said earlier in the thread Diggs' missed opportunity was the biggest momentum swing of them all. But he is an elite WR1. I'm not saying I expect any player to make zero mistakes, that is totally unrealistic. But when you don't offer much on a play to play basis, the mistakes become more glaring. A WR2 either has to be elite in one area or play fundamentally sound football on an extremely consistent level (a WR1 typically gives you both). Give me Jaylen Waddle or Robert Woods (in his prime). Different types of WR but both give you legit #2 ability. Davis is neither. He's a boom or bust WR that has zero elite traits, doesn't run the full route tree, and misses too many of the easy plays to be a reliable #2 option. In a normal offense with an average QB I honestly think he would be a non-factor.

 

For 3.5 quarters before the game got out of hand Allen throwing the ball to Diggs was pretty much our entire offense. Once again, for the 3rd season in a row, everybody else lower on the depth chart is pitching in a disappointing season with a high degree of inconsistency.

 

So a 4 point lead in the beginning of the 3rQ is so insurmountable by these Buffalo Bills that a drop 1 minute into the half is "backbreaking"?  That's laughable!

 

"Out of hand"?  It was 11-7 with 8 minutes left!  Then both teams traded touchdowns--the Bills mainly due to the efforts of Davis/Allen....this can't be disputed---I Iiterally spelled it out for you upstream with each catch listed and the situation at the catch. 

 

Look, I get that you painted yourself into this corner with the totally unforced error of saying Davis was a backbreaker in that game yesterday---and I admire the moxie of willing to senselessly  die on this bizarre hill---but Davis had the most impact in keeping this game within reach down the stretch. HE was clutch in the 4th Q.

 

Hang in there....

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

That drop by Gabe Davis-Scantling-Bey was an absolute killer yesterday.

 

 

I'm thinking we need to add the Alvin Harper reference: Gabe Davis-Scantling-Bey-Harper.  

 

All cut from the same WR cloth. 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

An elite guard and center on D?  

 

Hmmm ... 

 

Come on now, you know that we were talking about the D here.  

 

But for the record, you're saying now that we're incapable of having the #1 Offense because of our OL then?  
 

Help me understand.  

 

 

No. I think you need 4 or 5 elite players to win a Superbowl. I think that matters more than where you O or D ranks statistically. Traditionally that is what Superbowl winners have had. Almost always one of those is your QB. The positions of the rest don't matter as much but you need them. I worry we just lost one of ours and potentially a second of them (if the last game and 3/4s of Tre was really him back to his best). I don't know if Von can get back to elite level this season off an ACL. Which leaves us with two healthy elite players - Allen and Diggs. History tells you to win a Superbowl you need more than 2. Maybe Ed Oliver or Greg Rousseau keep up their fantastic starts and by the playoffs we are talking about them in that category. Maybe Von gets back there. Not sure I see anyone else on the roster who we might talk about in that way by January. Feels like we are now light on elite players compared to the norm for Superbowl winners.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

On 10/8/2023 at 10:21 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

Plenty of other factors from injuries to horrific refs that contributed to this loss, but we had 4 drives ended by dropped passes and that’s all in our control.  Would have been 5 too but a penalty negated the play.  
 

Cook, Knox, Diggs, Davis all dropped passes that killed our drives which would have been first downs, with Davis having a second drop for a first down erased off the stat sheet by a penalty.

 

Feels like the only people who showed up to play with any fire today was Allen, Diggs and AJE.  Milano and Daquan get a pass as they were hurt.

 

But the dropped passes in a game where refs were working against us were just killers.

I think, lost in all of this is the fact that our offense of line did not play well against the jags
 

This surprised me, because I really thought that the bills did pretty well against the dominant lions. We have faced so far like the Jets and Washington commanders.

 

I think what Dorsey is trying to do. The running game is directly involved in that this year. If we are not balanced, then we have problems we want to run the ball.

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is simply no way to backfill for losing your best players. No GM in the entire NFL has a replacement for Matt Milano sitting on the bench. 

 

Oh and Jones is having surgery. That is confirmed. He is done for the year. 

 

And I never changed my view on bottom dwellers. That was always specific to the defense that finished the game yesterday. I was very clear about that. They won't have to put up with that D. They have some guys to come back. But they have lost two first team all pros and another key defensive starter for the year. Show me another unit (offense or defense) in the entire league that has already lost that level of player for the season. 

 

Every team has injuries. Not every team has this. And when teams do they generally struggle to make the playoffs. I will say something you will probably agree with now.... I think the Bills are shooting for a wildcard at this point. These are back breaking injuries on D.

I have more hopes for Milanos back up the most. I realize that he’s just a rookie, but I loved him coming out of college and think that he is going to be a very good player in time. Is he ready right now to completely filled with Milano did for us Sadly no I don’t think so but I think he can give us some of it but he’s not gonna get any better by sitting on the sideline they have to play him

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

 

I have more hopes for Milanos back up the most. I realize that he’s just a rookie, but I loved him coming out of college and think that he is going to be a very good player in time. Is he ready right now to completely filled with Milano did for us Sadly no I don’t think so but I think he can give us some of it but he’s not gonna get any better by sitting on the sideline they have to play him

 

Sure. Williams isn't a lost cause because he struggled on Sunday. But you are losing the BEST cover linebacker in football right now. You can have the best general manager on the planet and you still won't have a day 1, direct replacement for a player like that. 

 

That is my point in this. Championship teams have a handful of elite players. When they don't they are not championship teams even if they still have a decent roster overall. The Bills have 5 guys on this roster that have been first team all pro in their careers. Four of them with the Bills (Von with Denver). Of those five we have just lost two in two weeks to season ending injuries. 

[Shemp]

I see the complete failure of the running game as the culprit vs. Jacksonville.It reduced the Bills to a one dimensional team and that's never good, especially with all the injuries on d.

[Bermuda Triangle]

22 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

lol "a killer"...with 13;52 left in the 3rd Q down by 4???

 

this place...

In a one possession game, every mistake is magnified, and each and every drive killing play is huge.

[Solomon Grundy]

8 minutes ago, Shemp said:

I see the complete failure of the running game as the culprit vs. Jacksonville.It reduced the Bills to a one dimensional team and that's never good, especially with all the injuries on d.

HOME RUN!! The Bills offense, the past couple of weeks, seemed to be more potent with a running game threat. I'd honestly would like to see Harris/Murray start a game than Cook. Those DBs don't want to tackle the more powerful RBs on a consistent basis

[Pete]

On 10/8/2023 at 1:21 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Plenty of other factors from injuries to horrific refs that contributed to this loss, but we had 4 drives ended by dropped passes and that’s all in our control.  Would have been 5 too but a penalty negated the play.  
 

Cook, Knox, Diggs, Davis all dropped passes that killed our drives which would have been first downs, with Davis having a second drop for a first down erased off the stat sheet by a penalty.

 

Feels like the only people who showed up to play with any fire today was Allen, Diggs and AJE.  Milano and Daquan get a pass as they were hurt.

 

But the dropped passes in a game where refs were working against us were just killers.

4 Josh drives ended by drops.  Inexcusable.

Bills had 19 missed tackles.  Jacksonville had 3.

 

Football 101.  If you can’t catch and if you can’t tackle, you are going to lose, even if you are fortunate to have Josh Allen as your QB