The Big Win Effect - Dolphins Beware

[billsfanmiamioh]

6 hours ago, PonyBoy said:

 

We had back to back Goldens. My vet told us once there's dog's and then there are Goldens. Very true.

Have a Vizsla/ Golden mix. Unbelievable temperament! 

 

6 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m on my 7th and 8th Goldens. I’ve had them all my life. Our son married a girl who came from a huge family (one of 6 daughters) all owning at least one labradoodle, so they got one of those. They BOTH agree the next dog will be a Golden. 

My wife grew up with goldens and we’re on our first. They’re simply the best. Our girl will be 2 in a couple weeks, prob add another into the mix within a year or so.
 

Our 15 year old cat has even learned to accept the dog and while they won’t lay ON each other, I’ll regularly find them laying pretty close to each other. 
 

 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

Miami scored 24 against a good New England Defense. That game is more of a comparable, as are the thriller three—-Bills-Dolphins from 2022. These teams will score 75–combined. The Denver game is an outlier. Denver is now officially playing for a first overall pick. The Russ trade will go down historically as Hershel Walker part two, or the New Orleans 99 draft class for Ricky Williams, or heck —-Rodgers to jets. This is a better Bills defense. If it’s combined with a patient offense, everybody at stadium gets a tuna melt on Sunday 😕

[Utah John]

Also working against the Dolphins is the fact that they won't have the opposing team sitting in the baking sun while they're in the shade.  The same thing that happened to the Bills last year caught the Broncos last Sunday.  

 

If the Dolphins expect the Bills to be too wiped out to play well, they could be a little too overconfident.  

 

What's the over/under on sacks of Tua?  (It would be bad form to ask for the o/u on Tua concussions, wouldn't it?)

[Peace Frog]

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, theRalph said:

There's an old saying about scoring too many points—beware, you made need some of those points next week. This is an example of the early big-win effect, a subject that's been deeply studied by psychologists.  An early-season big win, without losses to aggravate the effect, creates a super-high with the team (its a huge dopamine effect). 

 

A good hit of dopamine is the best chemical high a human or a team can experience, but it's a double-edged sword, because the human or team will want the high again, but the standard for it was set at 70 points. Now, Miami didn't intend on scoring 70 vs. Denver, but since they did, that's their standard. They will try to repeat that performance—which based on the history of the league, is highly unlikely. This will cause frustration. Had their 70-point win occurred in, say, week 13, there would be a feeling on that team of having worked toward that pinnacle. Because it was achieved so early in the season that won't happen. 

 

This not to predict a Bills' win, but Miami will spend the season trying to reproduce the "mile-high" feeling they got at sea level in the stadium formerly known as Joe Robbie.

 

 

While I do agree wtih this, 37-3 isn't exactly a squeaker either.

[SoMAn]

For a long time I've theorized this phenomenon may be a contributing factor for things like the infamous 'Sports Illustrated Cover Curse'. There are always going to be ebbs and flows.

Naturally, when an athlete or team has a remarkably outstanding performance, they get cover stories, but they're also statistically bound for a lull. There are valleys between mountains.

Sports books make a living off of gamblers playing 'follow the leader' with an unexpected fail by a highly touted competitor.

I like the Bills chances this weekend.

[The Gravytrain]

21 hours ago, Beast said:

Bills 51-3.

 

Then SB 25.

 

 

I don’t think Miami will be over confident.

 

If anything, they’ve had this game circled after the playoff game last season.

 

I expect Miami’s best effort.

 

And a Bills victory.

 

Sounds vaguely familiar to the AFC Championship game blowout score over the Jay Schrader led Raiders. Go Bills!

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by The Gravytrain
left out championship

[theRalph]

On 9/28/2023 at 5:03 PM, Limeaid said:

NFL has points made as factor in ties for standings so I do not think it is bad karma unless someone gets hurt especially on a scoring celebration.

When you're up three or four scores in the 4Q, you DON'T keep sticking it in the other team's ass. It is most certainly bad Karma.

[Punching Bag]

17 minutes ago, theRalph said:

When you're up three or four scores in the 4Q, you DON'T keep sticking it in the other team's ass. It is most certainly bad Karma.

 

If you have backups in there who have not got much playing time and they can score you score.

If opposing team is down and is scoring or close to scoring the team needs to ensure opponent that will not have opportunity for easy scores.

[Prospector]

21 minutes ago, theRalph said:

When you're up three or four scores in the 4Q, you DON'T keep sticking it in the other team's ass. It is most certainly bad Karma.

I don't think this counts for backups... It's like when the Bills had Matt Barkley throw a bomb on the Dolphins in the blow out a couple years ago. They also tried just running, but those were going for TD's also. But the Dolphins have bad karma for just being the Dolphins.

[bobobonators]

This thread has aged like a fine wine. So much of sports at this level is purely psychological. You’re dealing with teams who, for the most part, are fairly evenly matched on talent. The psychology/mindset of it all is so important. 

[TheBrownBear]

1 minute ago, bobobonators said:

This thread has aged like a fine wine. So much of sports at this level is purely psychological. You’re dealing with teams who, for the most part, are fairly evenly matched on talent. The psychology/mindset of it all is so important. 

Yep, now the Bills need to watch their back and mindset.  They are on the emotional high right now.

[AlfaBill]

On 9/28/2023 at 1:17 PM, Dopey said:

48-28 the good guys!!

You win!

[Beast]

23 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

This thread has aged like a fine wine. So much of sports at this level is purely psychological. You’re dealing with teams who, for the most part, are fairly evenly matched on talent. The psychology/mindset of it all is so important. 

I disagree with, “for the most part, teams being fairly evenly matched on talent.”

 

There’s a reason why teams are always seeking more talented players. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Beast