Where is the data to suggest that things will change?

[Virgil]

The first week of the season was interesting, to say the least.  There were some scores and performances that were truly head scratchers.  While I could use the term "any given Sunday" for a lot of those games, the Bills game just feels different.  This didn't feel like a fluke game for Josh, the players, and the coaches.  No, this felt like the game right after the Bengals loss.  For me, that's why this game hurts so much.  I don't care that it was against the Jets or on MNF, I care that there is no data to suggest that this team has taken any type of step forward in the areas that matter.  

 

Now, there were positives in this game

• James Cook was clearly the number one back and did well enough in the role.  
• Defensive pass rush with Floyd and Groot looked really good.  However, isn't the Jets offensive line not that great?
• Milano looked like a beast and a true disrupter.  The PF was stupid on his part
• Bass continues to be solid
• Diggs got his touches and broke 100 yards

 

But here's where I'm just plain depressed and am hoping it wears off over the next few days, because right now...I have no reason to be optimistic about this upcoming season

• Dorsey actually looked decent in the first quarter.  Used Harty in a way that made me realize why we signed him.  Ran some power formations that he passed out of.  Overall had some good looks.  Once he ran through his scripted plays, is when things went off the rails
  • Did we run a single 12 man, basic line-up?  I'm talking 5 lineman, 1 TE on both sides, Diggs and Davis on the alternate sides out wide, and Cook in the backfield.  Very simple, very vanilla, just run formation with our guys against yours.  The Jets stayed in the same 4 lineman, 7 in coverage almost the entire game.  The linebackers, 2 or 3 at times, were 4-5 yards off the ball.  Why not just use basic match and say, our 7 guys are going to take out your front 4 and get an easy 3-5 yards each rush.  Run it to every possible gap, and repeat.  Sure, we may not get a first down every time, but do it until the Jets adjust because they would eventually have to.   That's when Josh eats.  This also sets up the play action, so we can use that guy we just spent a number one pick on.  Also, on the game tying drive at by Josh, that was one of the few drives that Josh did well because the Jets started to blitz.  This all seems so obvious to me, but maybe I'm missing something
  • The draw play on the last drive.   Should one play define a coordinators entire game?  No.  But when you run the ball against their best defensive lineman behind your worst offensive lineman, you need to explain that.  Again, maybe I'm stupid, I'm betting on that play to lose 10 times out of 10.
  • Where were the bunch formations?  Jets were in a spread zone and don't move Sauce around.  Bunch the other side of the field and run the tosses, quick screens to that side.  Again, basic math
• For the first time in Josh's career, I feel like he's peaked.  Great, elite QB's, don't do what Josh did tonight.  It's not the 3 interceptions and fumble, but it kind of is.  It's the fact that everyone knew how the Jets were going to play him.  Hell, even Josh knew and admitted it.  What does he do with this information?  The same thing he always does against defenses like this.  Take the underneath stuff to start the game, get frustrated, and then start pushing it downfield.  The first interception, I gave a pass.  He couldn't have ran with it like some people think because alternate camera angles showed a player waiting for him 7 yards downfield.  That interception was basically a punt.  The second interception was just plain stupid and potentially cost us at least 3 points, as we were a first down away from being in range.  The last two turnovers were all Josh and his lack of concentration.  You want to be elite?  We can't be talking about your ability to think in the 4th quarter.
• The big play ratio.  Count the big plays between teams?  The Jets had at least 2 and we had zero.  I'm talking chunk yardage plays.  No matter how much the defense changes we are good for at least two a game and it never changes.
• The big needs.  I've said all offseason that we needed to address OT, MLB, and pass catcher.  We got a pass catcher, but didn't feel the need to use him.  Brown was an absolute liability out there and Dorsey had to give him help on multiple plays.  Bernard got tackled as much by his own feet and teammates as he did the other team.  Dude got absolutely absorbed or blown up on multiple plays.  He did have one good tackle that showed promise, but McD finally stepped up and started bring Rapp into the game more.  Again, I wouldn't be so mad if the obvious weaknesses weren't so damn obvious and we all saw them coming.

 

So here we are, only 0-1 with a whole season ahead of us.  My problem is, what data is there to suggest that this season is going to be any different from the last 6.  Josh isn't taking the next step and adjusting his issues.  Dorsey doesn't know how to call plays to his players strengths, what is happening on the field, or make second half adjustments.  The defense is great, but gives up enough big plays to keep the other team in it.  We are good enough to beat 70% of the teams, but we can't step up in the big games when it matters.  13 seconds might be the best game of this teams era, but we still lost.  Because that's what we do in the big games.  Some part of our team finds a way to lose. 

 

I can't get excited for the Raiders and Commanders, because I still expect to win and it will mean nothing.  There's just no data to suggest that this team is going to take the next step and it became obvious in the first game of the season.  There's no data to suggest that this team can make adjustments.  Until further notice, I'm just meh about it all.  

 

And here's the only truly extreme comment I will make about changes.  I like McD and the culture he created.  But he's also no absorbed in the defense and hands off with the offense.  He's allowed Josh to surround himself with a coordinator that Josh likes and back-ups that are Josh's friends.  Josh needs someone who is going to bench his ass, punch him in the mouth, and make him actually accountable in the moment.  That doesn't exist right now except for Diggs.  That's not enough.  Josh isn't going to change on his own and right now, I don't know who else is going to push him.  If there is a downfall of McD, it will be that.

 

Go Bills

[Success]

" Great, elite QB's, don't do what Josh did tonight"

 

I mean, I just started a thread earlier about Peyton Manning throwing 6 picks in a primetime game.  And they all have had games like that.

 

As to the main question of the OP: I was pretty encouraged by literally every other facet of the game for the Bills. I thought the pass rush was way better, the O-line was good, Bernard held up well, Kincaid looked like the guy we hoped he would be, Groot has taken a next step, et al.  

 

This is a better team than last year.  Josh just has to be better than he was last night.

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

Working on it...

 

 

[Virgil]

3 minutes ago, Success said:

" Great, elite QB's, don't do what Josh did tonight"

 

I mean, I just started a thread earlier about Peyton Manning throwing 6 picks in a primetime game.  And they all have had games like that.

 

As to the main question of the OP: I was pretty encouraged by literally every other facet of the game for the Bills. I thought the pass rush was way better, the O-line was good, Bernard held up well, Kincaid looked like the guy we hoped he would be, Groot has taken a next step, et al.  

 

This is a better team than last year.  Josh just has to be better than he was last night.

 

 

The difference is, those games with Peyton and others were flukes and one off games.  My point is that this isn't a fluke for Josh anymore.  He's had the most interceptions total over the past 5 years and continues to perform like this against teams who drop 7 in coverage.  Burrow had a terrible week one, but that's not a typical performance for him.  Josh will do this again against the Jets, or any team where he feels like he has to press

[Einstein]

A lot of blame is (rightfully so) being put on Josh. However, I believe there are several layers to this onion:

 

- Allen’s offensive line has him shook, and has had him shook for about a year now. Allen started the game something like 9 of 10 passing before Spencer Brown was bench pressed into his lap. Then Morse got embarrassingly beat by Quinnen Williams on the deep seam interception which rushed Allen’s throw/decision making. Allen was under pressure close to 50% of his dropbacks (stat below). That is unacceptable.

 

- I believe that there is one mind he respected and trusted in the Bills coaching staff, and that mind is now on the Giants payroll.

 

- My hypothesis is that Diggs emotions, desire to win and desire get the ball has put pressure on Josh that is not conducive to him playing well. It often feels like Josh is forcing the ball to Diggs.

 

- Coaching in general has been poor. Why do we only have 2 linebackers on the field when the Jets are playing 13 personnel? We really want a safety playing pseudo-LB?

 

 

 

 

Edited September 12, 2023 by Einstein

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Working on it...

 

 

The theory. ⬆️

The actuality of the situation. ⬇️

 

[Virgil]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

A lot of blame is (rightfully so) being put on Josh. However, I believe there are several layers to this onion:

 

- I believe that Allen’s offensive line has him shook. Allen started the game something like 9 of 10 passing before Spencer Brown was bench pressed into his lap. Then Morse got embarrassingly beat by Quinnen Williams on the deep seam interception which rushed Allen’s throw/decision making. Allen was under pressure close to 50% of his dropbacks (stat below). That is unacceptable.

- I believe that there is one mind he respected and trusted in the Bills coaching staff, and that mind is now on the Giants payroll.

- I believe that Diggs emotions, desire to win and desire get the ball has put pressure on Josh that is not conducive to him playing well. It often feels like Josh is forcing the ball to Diggs.

 

 

 

 

 

https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1701440484051222921?s=20

 

I don't know which one to believe.  This tweet says he was pressured the 10th lowest of any other QB this week at 26%

Edited September 12, 2023 by Virgil

[PayDaBill$]

15 minutes ago, Success said:

" Great, elite QB's, don't do what Josh did tonight"

 

I mean, I just started a thread earlier about Peyton Manning throwing 6 picks in a primetime game.  And they all have had games like that.

 

As to the main question of the OP: I was pretty encouraged by literally every other facet of the game for the Bills. I thought the pass rush was way better, the O-line was good, Bernard held up well, Kincaid looked like the guy we hoped he would be, Groot has taken a next step, et al.  

 

This is a better team than last year.  Josh just has to be better than he was last night.

 

Are you kidding me? This isn’t a one off performance from JA it’s been a trend.

 

He’s regressing and not improving. He gets flustered his 👀 get the wild look and watch out.

 

Right now he’s an inconsistent unpredictable QB. All one has to do is look at his TO numbers.  
 

 

 

Edited September 12, 2023 by PayDaBill$

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1701440484051222921?s=20

 

I don't know which one to believe.  This tweet says he was pressured the 10th lowest of any other QB this week at 26%

 

He doesn’t cite where he came up with that number, but anyone watching the game could see that Allen was pressured on more than 20% of his dropbacks.

 

I trust PFF’s number of 43%~.

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

He doesn’t cite where he came up with that number, but anyone watching the game could see that Allen was pressured on more than 20% of his dropbacks.

 

I trust PFF’s number of 43%~.

 

I've always wondered how they take into account self-inflicted pressure. There's a few plays where Josh has a clean pocket and then steps out for no reason, and right into a defender

[MasterStrategist]

Here's the simple data:

1. Turnovers (3 or more): teams week 1 in this category went 1-6

2. Turnover differential (-3 or worse): teams went 2-5

 

I honestly felt like this is where we'd improve this season.  The coaches, and Allen in particular, have been harping all offseason about it.  Needs fixed immediately.  And as much as Josh says it's not a "snowballing effect", to me it is.  We can see it all over his face, he needs someone to get keep him "mentally" calm/brush off when mistakes happen.  Bc he will turn the ball over/make dumb decisions, they just need to be limited and not compounded.  It's Kyle Allen/Joe Brady needing to help fill that role on the sideline.

 

Moving on, 1 week doesn't make or break the season.  It's the mental toughness that's needed right now.  You learn that best when in adversity/tough losses, we've seen it before, but we need to snap into a different gear now.

[WhoTom]

19 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Josh needs someone who is going to bench his ass, punch him in the mouth, and make him actually accountable in the moment. 

 

I made a similar comment in another thread. It all comes down to discipline, and Josh played without any.

 

I remember in his first or second season when he threw a bone-headed pick and Daboll went ballistic on him. (I think McD sent Daboll up to the booth for subsequent games.) But that's what Josh needed at the time. Maybe Dorsey should call plays from the sideline and lay into Josh every now and then. We know Dorsey has a temper - Josh needs to see it.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

He doesn’t cite where he came up with that number, but anyone watching the game could see that Allen was pressured on more than 20% of his dropbacks.

 

I trust PFF’s number of 43%~.

 

Allen's created more pressure on himself.  Just because he bails doesn't mean he's pressured.

 

He had zero pocket awareness last night.  He bailed on clean pockets a lot.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

4 minutes ago, PayDaBill$ said:

He’s regressing and not improving. He gets flustered his 👀 get the wild look and watch out.

Happy Feet + Wild Looks = Trouble in River City.

[Process]

10 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1701440484051222921?s=20

 

I don't know which one to believe.  This tweet says he was pressured the 10th lowest of any other QB this week at 26%

43% is probably counting plays where Allen bailed on a clean pocket and ran straight into a d lineman

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

10 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

The difference is, those games with Peyton and others were flukes and one off games.  My point is that this isn't a fluke for Josh anymore.  He's had the most interceptions total over the past 5 years and continues to perform like this against teams who drop 7 in coverage.  Burrow had a terrible week one, but that's not a typical performance for him.  Josh will do this again against the Jets, or any team where he feels like he has to press

Spot on accurate here.  These types of games would be aberrations for any other elite QB.  JA does this MULTIPLE times every year.  This is who JA is.  A gunslinging turnover machine.  JA's aberrations are zero turnover games and 300+ yards.  He's never gonna be Mahomes.....not even close.  Have to accept who he is and embrace it.  If the stars align and the Bills get some lucky bounces, they may win a SB with him...but I don't see it happening for another 3-4 years and that's if he's even still healthy enough to do it.  McD won't be here when it happens and neither will Dorsey.

[Royale with Cheese]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

A lot of blame is (rightfully so) being put on Josh. However, I believe there are several layers to this onion:

 

- Allen’s offensive line has him shook, and has had him shook for about a year now. Allen started the game something like 9 of 10 passing before Spencer Brown was bench pressed into his lap. Then Morse got embarrassingly beat by Quinnen Williams on the deep seam interception which rushed Allen’s throw/decision making. Allen was under pressure close to 50% of his dropbacks (stat below). That is unacceptable.

 

- I believe that there is one mind he respected and trusted in the Bills coaching staff, and that mind is now on the Giants payroll.

 

- My hypothesis is that Diggs emotions, desire to win and desire get the ball has put pressure on Josh that is not conducive to him playing well. It often feels like Josh is forcing the ball to Diggs.

 

- Coaching in general has been poor. Why do we only have 2 linebackers on the field when the Jets are playing 13 personnel? We really want a safety playing pseudo-LB?

 

 

 

 

 

That mind lost 40-0 at home to Dallas on Sunday.

 

I agree with you about Diggs.  Allen was forcing it to him for whatever reason.

 

Allen shouldn't be shook or he needs to toughen up mentally if that's the case.  Joe Burrow, prior to the second half of last year and a much more porous offensive line and he worked his way through it.  He was sacked 9 times in a playoff game once.  He was sacked like 15 times in the first 3 games last year.  He got through it.

[goldenboy81]

Do you think dorsey has allen regressing?

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Process said:

43% is probably counting plays where Allen bailed on a clean pocket and ran straight into a d lineman

.

Yep.

[Einstein]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That mind lost 40-0 at home to Dallas on Sunday.

 

Equating it to the Bills, I think the Giants are in their 2018 season. Last season they overachieved (like the 2017 Bills), this year they regress, and next year they go for a deep playoff run.