The 2023 - ??? Edmunds Report

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Again, you need to think about that logic a bit.  I'm not a member of the "MLB don't matter any more" club, butwe all know that QB is the most important player on the team, pass rusher next.  Supply and demand says there aren't enough of either, so teams reach and teams pay guys who are "OK".

 

MLB is not a position like "best QB" or "best pass rusher" where teams are going to pay "market value no matter what", but getting a 5th year option picked up and then huge $$ on the free market for a 2nd contract means a player, any player, was a successful draft pick at a position of significance.

It's not logical to suggest that getting a huge FA 2nd contract means the player wasn't worth that 1st round pick.

He got his fifth year option picked up because the Bills didn’t want to sign him to a long-term deal lol.

 

Again, if MLB isn’t a position you’d pay, then it’s not worth a first round pick. Neither is guard. Bad picks in the first. 

9 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

It’s not the unrealized potential that pits Bills fans against Edmunds, it’s the divisive discussion about what he brings to the defense.
 

If everyone here unanimously (or even mostly) believed Edmunds was a solid yet unspectacular linebacker, there wouldn’t be threads started about him, nor would there be arguments about what a poster’s own eyes are telling them. Edmunds was described in many ways like Star Lotuleile, another divisive player, and the common thread/argument between the two was that both made plays all game long, it just didn’t register on the stat sheet. When you have some telling others what they’re seeing is wrong, then you get a divisive player. In that situation it feels like people are salty toward the player but in actuality they’re salty toward the heated arguments and want nothing more than to be proven right. 

Man you’re right.
 

I hate that people that want nothing more than to be proven right. It just beats a dead horse for no reason at all. Inexplicable. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

And he had 7 TFLs on the season.  Edmunds had 2 in week 1 alone.  Edmunds played well against GB.  Don’t know what else to tell you.  Again, sorry the fact that he doesn’t suck causes such grief around this fan base.  Not sure what he ever did to malign so many Bills fans but whatever it was, I’m sure Terrell Bernard will do better.

 

 

He doesn't have to suck.   He was promoted as a potential Brian Urlacher 2.0 when drafted by the Bills and when that didn't ever come close to happening the narrative switched to "well, he's really good and you guys just don't understand his impact".

 

The reality is that he doesn't make plays.   Couple TFL's in the run game is nice........but it's about the lowest rung on the playmaker ladder for a LB and I wouldn't expect that to continue(though he should lead the NFL in tackles on a defense that may play the most snaps of any defense in football).

 

Here are some staggering stats for Tremaine:

 

He went a season where he blitzed 76 times without creating a single pressure. 

 

He hasn't forced a fumble since early in his rookie season........about 70 games ago.  

 

He strung together back-to-back seasons with over 100 passer rating against while his defenders insisted that teams were afraid to throw in his area.  

 

He had something of a breakout season last year.........but still no plays.........the switch has just never fully gone on for him and at $18M aav that's a problem for the Bears and a bullet dodged by the Bills.    In limited time in the preseason the past two years and a couple games this season the largely uninspiring prospect Bernard has already shown a far greater nose for the football.

 

And mind you.........I loved the Edmunds pick.   Thought Tremaine would make a great, rangy edge rusher........basically replace the highly impactful Lorenzo Alexander in the Bills defense but allow them to play more 3 LB sets with his superior athleticism........a game changing talent.  

 

Being a solid player,  but with clear weaknesses, at a devalued position was NOT a good result.

 

I am also of the belief that he will be back in Buffalo at a fraction of the cost in a couple years and the narrative will turn from "he's a rising star just coming into his own" to "he's going back to where he had his most success". 

[Lane Meyer K12]

He was a prospect that ultimately did not play out. When drafted he was young and physically impressive. His instincts were never good and after all is said and done, he never had the nose for the football or the wherewithal to make big plays (at least to date).

It is really early in the season, but the Bills may actually be better off without him in the lineup.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out as the season goes on. 

[corta765]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Yeah that makes total sense lol. If you drafted the best QB in the NFL, you would pay him market value no matter what. Good pick. If you drafted the best pass rusher in the NFL, you would pay him market value no matter what. Good pick. If you draft a “solid” ILB, they will get overpaid by some garbage franchise and aren’t enough of a difference maker to be worth paying. Bad pick.

See above.

 

But that is not the same equation and value in the NFL is determined entirely different per position. Right now after QB the most premium positions in the NFL would be DE/Pass Rushing LB, LT, CB, & WR. A MLB that is not a pass rusher fails in value comparatively to other spots. The Bills literally have paid all of those positions I listed and Edmunds got squeezed out. They clearly gambled last year he would stay at the level he had and instead he had such a good year the market priced him out of what Buffalo could afford. This isn't an apples to apples thing when it comes to money and position of player. Again as I said originally at draft he had the physical tools of an All Pro LB and most GMs would be willing to try that. He certainly was decent to good so it wasn't any failure just economics of a sport with a hard cap and a team that has maxed out its credit card.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

But that is not the same equation and value in the NFL is determined entirely different per position. Right now after QB the most premium positions in the NFL would be DE/Pass Rushing LB, LT, CB, & WR. A MLB that is not a pass rusher fails in value comparatively to other spots. The Bills literally have paid all of those positions I listed and Edmunds got squeezed out. They clearly gambled last year he would stay at the level he had and instead he had such a good year the market priced him out of what Buffalo could afford. This isn't an apples to apples thing when it comes to money and position of player. Again as I said originally at draft he had the physical tools of an All Pro LB and most GMs would be willing to try that. He certainly was decent to good so it wasn't any failure just economics of a sport with a hard cap and a team that has maxed out its credit card.

When Edmunds was drafted, the Bills didn’t have Von Miller, or Greg Rousseau or Stefon Diggs lol. That’s the point. We could have built the team differently. 
 

Not to mention, no team has ever complained about having two great edge rushers or two great receivers.

 

It was predictable that Edmunds would get priced out 5 years down the road because OF HIS POSITION. Because he doesn’t play a big money position so we will have to pay big money at those positions and then not want to pay him. You are acting like there was no way to know they wouldn’t throw money at a devalued position.

 

You can try to draft with a vision for the future. In fact, it’s what good GM’s do. And that’s why the trade up for him was a bad pick. A predictable loss, and a ten to twelve year investment was cut in half. Bad.

 

Would Jaire Alexander still be on this team? Would DJ Moore still be on this team? The answer is yes to both and you know it. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by FireChans

[Nephilim17]

One final Edmunds report? 

 

That's like a crackhead asking his dealer for one final hit.

[Haslett_Stomp]

Is Donte Whitner still in the league?  I haven't seen anyone post on him in awhile.

[corta765]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

When Edmunds was drafted, the Bills didn’t have Von Miller, or Greg Rousseau or Stefon Diggs lol. That’s the point. We could have built the team differently. 
 

Not to mention, no team has ever complained about having two great edge rushers or two great receivers.

 

It was predictable that Edmunds would get priced out 5 years down the road because OF HIS POSITION. Because he doesn’t play a big money position so we will have to pay big money at those positions and then not want to pay him. You are acting like there was no way to know they wouldn’t throw money at a devalued position.

 

You can try to draft with a vision for the future. In fact, it’s what good GM’s do. And that’s why the trade up for him was a bad pick. A predictable loss, and a ten to twelve year investment was cut in half. Bad.

 

Would Jaire Alexander still be on this team? Would DJ Moore still be on this team? The answer is yes to both and you know it. 

 

Correct and the league has changed from 5 years ago also. In 2018 4 LBs were drafted rnd 1, last two years just four in the 1st rnd. No one is disagreeing that these days a MLB is replaceable for the most part unless they are beast pass rusher.

 

The amount of arm chair GMs like yourself is hilarious. They have done the data and most GM's hit on a 1/3rd of their picks at best long term meaning that even getting a quality starter forget pro bowl all pro is pretty good and if you hit on a few drafts big time odds are you will have a few average or less down the road. Saying it was a bad pick is just stupid, say you didn't like Edmunds and move on because otherwise he was a solid 5 year starter on a defense that has been in the top 5-10 the entirety of it. I am sure Beane and McD wish Edmunds maxed into the player he did because his tools looked like a do it all LB with sacks/coverage/etc and the economics worked in a way that would've kept him here. If your going to draft a LB 1st rnd he is the type of profile you want to go for because of the physical tools. It is not predictable by any means drafting any player because our QB was the most doubted of the 2018 draft heading into it and he turned into the best of the bunch. TJ Watt was drafted 30th, was he not worth being drafted because he was a LB even at 30? If GMs had the ability to be perfect none would be fired and every team would be loaded. The is room to say Edmunds was a fine starter for 5 years who helped the Bills a lot but you wished he maxed into the full potential he has so paying him max money wasn't a question. That is 100% reasonable and accurate view of the situation.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Correct and the league has changed from 5 years ago also. In 2018 4 LBs were drafted rnd 1, last two years just four in the 1st rnd. No one is disagreeing that these days a MLB is replaceable for the most part unless they are beast pass rusher.

 

The amount of arm chair GMs like yourself is hilarious. They have done the data and most GM's hit on a 1/3rd of their picks at best long term meaning that even getting a quality starter forget pro bowl all pro is pretty good and if you hit on a few drafts big time odds are you will have a few average or less down the road. Saying it was a bad pick is just stupid, say you didn't like Edmunds and move on because otherwise he was a solid 5 year starter on a defense that has been in the top 5-10 the entirety of it. I am sure Beane and McD wish Edmunds maxed into the player he did because his tools looked like a do it all LB with sacks/coverage/etc and the economics worked in a way that would've kept him here. If your going to draft a LB 1st rnd he is the type of profile you want to go for because of the physical tools. It is not predictable by any means drafting any player because our QB was the most doubted of the 2018 draft heading into it and he turned into the best of the bunch. TJ Watt was drafted 30th, was he not worth being drafted because he was a LB even at 30? If GMs had the ability to be perfect none would be fired and every team would be loaded. The is room to say Edmunds was a fine starter for 5 years who helped the Bills a lot but you wished he maxed into the full potential he has so paying him max money wasn't a question. That is 100% reasonable and accurate view of the situation.

You just can’t grasp the difference between strategy vs results and that’s the disconnect. Honestly, lots of GM’s and TBDers can’t either.

 

Again, DJ Moore and Jaire Alexander would still be Bills today.

Edited September 20, 2023 by FireChans

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

30 minutes ago, Haslett_Stomp said:

Is Donte Whitner still in the league?  I haven't seen anyone post on him in awhile.

 

what, are you trying to summon officer Bill?

 

[corta765]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You just can’t grasp the difference between strategy vs results and that’s the disconnect. Honestly, lots of GM’s and TBDers can’t either.

 

Again, DJ Moore and Jaire Alexander would still be Bills today.

 

I am not disagreeing with strategy, I am disagreeing that a perfect plan is possible or predictable heading into every draft. For the record I am not even arguing that Edmunds was worth moving for as they could've just had two picks instead and to me the draft is partially the ultimate lottery so the more picks the better. I am with you on that more than against it. My simple point is Edmunds was not some grand failure and the answer on what he was/is lies in the middle. I would also argue IF you were going to draft a LB you do it for a guy who was as young and freakishly talented physically.

 

On a different note the 2018 draft was loaded across the board that year and it is pretty wild looking at how many quality starters emerged from that draft.

[Capco]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Again, if MLB isn’t a position you’d pay, then it’s not worth a first round pick. Neither is guard. Bad picks in the first. 

I get your point generally I think.  But if going strictly by that logic, then Quenton Nelson and Luke Kueckly were bad draft picks.  

It's not about what position they play as much as it's about how much they are worth.  Guys like Nelson and Kueckly are guys you pay.  Period.  

Do I think Edmunds belongs in the NFL as a starting MLB?  Absolutely.  Do I think he's worth as much as he was paid?  No, but I do think he's good enough to be worth ~$10mil per year.  I would've loved to have him back at that price, but I'm also glad we are not paying him what Chicago is.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Capco

[LabattBlue]

2 hours ago, FLFan said:

Yes, and just as childish.  I think it might be time to move on.  He does not play for us anymore.  

…or don’t click on a thread you have no interest in.  I for one would like to know how Edmunds is doing with Chicago. 

[34-78-83]

Edmunds is a good player, but not a great player. He priced himself out of Buffalo with his FA market value. That's all, plain and simple. There's really nothing more to it. Those that claim he sucked are wrong and those that thought he was a true year after year pro bowl type player are wrong as well.

[Steve O]

On 8/27/2023 at 10:23 AM, Augie said:

He is making about $18 Million more than I am this year. You can call me any names you want for that. 😋

since he's making 22 million this year I'd say you're doing quite nicely as well (disclaimer: this thread is 15 pages long, this was posted almost a month ago, I didn't check to see if this has already been posted. Apologies if I'm being redundant.)

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I am not disagreeing with strategy, I am disagreeing that a perfect plan is possible or predictable heading into every draft. For the record I am not even arguing that Edmunds was worth moving for as they could've just had two picks instead and to me the draft is partially the ultimate lottery so the more picks the better. I am with you on that more than against it. My simple point is Edmunds was not some grand failure and the answer on what he was/is lies in the middle. I would also argue IF you were going to draft a LB you do it for a guy who was as young and freakishly talented physically.

 

On a different note the 2018 draft was loaded across the board that year and it is pretty wild looking at how many quality starters emerged from that draft.

It was still a bad pick. I didn’t call it a grand failure, but when, as you said, it’s ultimately a lotto ticket, maximizing your hits and minimizing your misses is the only way to go. Which is why it was a bad pick. Because it didn’t do that. Even if Edmunds was a better player for 4 years and still got priced out, it would’ve been bad. The only way it would’ve been a good pick is if Edmunds was the best LB in the NFL for a decade. And even then, it would be about the result, not the strategy.

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, Capco said:

I get your point generally I think.  But if going strictly by that logic, then Quenton Nelson and Luke Kueckly were bad draft picks.  

It's not about what position they play as much as it's about how much they are worth.  Guys like Nelson and Kueckly are guys you pay.  Period.  

Do I think Edmunds belongs in the NFL as a starting MLB?  Absolutely.  Do I think he's worth as much as he was paid?  No, but I do think he's good enough to be worth ~$10mil per year.  I would've loved to have him back at that price, but I'm also glad we are not paying him what Chicago is.

Quentin Nelson probably WAS a bad draft pick, strategically. Great player. HoF player. but what has that resulted in?

Luke Kuechly same thing. Great player. HoF. But he’s been sitting on the couch for a few years. You know who isn’t? Fletcher Cox, interior rusher. He’s played in two Super Bowls. Hell, even Gilmore is still playing.

 

ILB guys don’t play at a high level for 12 years. They are the defensive equivalent of running backs. And just because some are great and some have success and some win Super Bowls, doesn’t make it good strategy. The Chiefs took CEH over Tee Higgins. Terrible pick, terrible strategy. They won the Super Bowl again anyway. doesn’t mean the pick wasn’t still bad.
 

 

[ngbills]

The funny thing about this board is everything has to be extreme. The Bills did not sign Edmunds so he has to suck, be worse than Bernard, Bears are stupid, etc. It cant be that he is a good player, the Bills would have love to keep him, just were not wanting to spend $20M on him or any MLB. If they signed him we would still have an anti-Edmunds group but many that now say he is not worth the money or Bernard is fine would be celebrating how we got him for less than Roquan Smith. Its ok for him to be good and not be on the Bills anymore. 

[gobills404]

Day in the life of @FireChans

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

Day in the life of @FireChans

Lmao