If Kincaid can fill the slot role of this team...

[oldschoolfootball1963]

19 hours ago, boyst said:

But you're so negative. Get your reality out of here.

 

I think Kincaid improves this team. No doubt about it. Is it enough? I don't know. I see no reason to think a team won't put a LB and Safety on him. Diggs can be covered 1x1 in most cases because our OL is poor. 

 

We need a legit #2 WR and/or OL to improve to make the difference.

 

Kincaid alone won't be able to do it unless he has a historic season. That'd require an entire change in philosophy & Dorsey succeeding with 2TE sets 

Kincaid is not a TE he is a slot receiver this is where you are wrong. When Knox and Kincade are on the field at the same time. There is only one TE in the game. Kincade might be listed as a TE but he’s playing slot WR. I expect 80 catches for 1k yards and 8 TD catches for Kincade. Beasley was getting basically 1k in yards a year. And around 80 catches which equals 12.5 yards per catch. The bills now have their own Travis Kelce. 

Edited August 10, 2023 by oldschoolfootball1963

[boyst]

58 minutes ago, oldschoolfootball1963 said:

Kincaid is not a TE he is a slot receiver this is where you are wrong. When Knox and Kincade are on the field at the same time. There is only one TE in the game. Kincade might be listed as a TE but he’s playing slot WR. I expect 80 catches for 1k yards and 8 TD catches for Kincade. Beasley was getting basically 1k in yards a year. And around 80 catches which equals 12.5 yards per catch. The bills now have their own Travis Kelce. 

I checked my source again, I may have been wrong... It happened once before...

 

It turns out they were right. Kincaid is a Tight end.¹

 

So saying he is not a tight end and then later saying he is doesn't work well. And the mind bending to say Kincaid is the Bills Kelce is mind broken. Kelce is a HOF worthy TE. Kincaid hasn't even had a snap of professional football.

 

1) Buffalo Bills Roster: Dalton Kincaid, August 10, 2023, BuffaloBills.com ( https://www.buffalobills.com/team/players-roster/dalton-kincaid/ )

[Chaos]

11 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Top 5 still includes # 1 or # 2. 

Well it also includes five meaning a regression.  Why do you think they might regress to five. 

[Dopey]

The offense was fine and will be fine this year. We ended up with a 7-game winning streak to end the regular season, averaging a little over 29 points per game. In those 7 games, Allen's numbers aren't all that great. If you look at those games, we ran the ball better, for the most part. Lions held Josh in check, but we ran for over 160 yds. NE, 223 yds passing, but over 130 yds rushing. Just a couple of examples. We had a stinker vs the Jets at the end of the season. So what?! Still won the game. For an offense to avg. 29 points per game after adjusting to Allen's elbow injury and be called disjointed is something I do not agree with. Just can't. And yes, I watched the games. This isn't just stats I'm throwing out there.

[PBF81]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Not sure why you think KC' s offense isn't as strong? 

 

Mahomes really didn't have much last year and they won it all. To boot, Mahomes was playing on one leg. 

 

I think KC come playoff time will be probably the most dangerous team come playoff time. Mahomes, Kelce, and Andy Reid are just at another level. Clearly, the best of the best. 

 

I'll go one step further and say Mahomes could challenge Brady's record. Reid might be the next Bill Belichick. They sure look special to me. 

 

BTW, you red-x'd my comment, so I've been meaning to ask, here are KC's starting WRs this season.  Which of them do you think is going to carry the water the most on the receiving end, and why, given their performances in the NFL to date?  

 

Kelce's 34 this season and into his back-9.  Tony Gonzalez, the best TE in the history of the modern game began slowing down significantly at 33/34.  

 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling   https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/ValdMa00.htm  

Kadarius Toney   https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ToneKa00.htm  

Skyy Moore https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MoorSk01.htm  

 

What kind of overall receiving numbers do you expect for that group?  ... even with Mahomes throwing.  

 

I hadn't heard of any of them prior to recently in this discussion.  

 

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by PBF81

[colin]

On 8/9/2023 at 10:26 AM, Special K said:

Also, the 2 TE formation, a running formation on many teams, will be more of a passing formation for the Bills. This will put added stress on the D because it will be that much harder to figure out what the Bills O is doing.

 

Looking forward to seeing some confused opposing defenses this year!

 

assuming we can run block some and our new big backs and a growing cook give us a bit of power, an EP offense run by josh allen out of a two TE single back set is a scary scary sight. 

 

if diggs and harty are the WRs (won't be a problem of lack of blocking w the big bodies near the line) you have match up speed and agility issues at both TE slots (how many nfl teams can say that?), RB, both WR, and allen himself is a problem.

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Huge dropoff, no. Real dropoff, yes.

 

As you say, the Bills averaged 397 for the year. The Jets game in Week 9 was when Allen was injured and if you look at that game and every one after it, 5 out of 9 are below 357 yards. 

 

And the other four games, the four games where they went over their average of 397, were against the #32, #31, #29 and #18 ranked defenses. The #18 (Fins) defense is a decent ranking, but the other three, well, they weren't good. That's not an average group, all told.

 

I'm with you that I think they're likely to be very good this year, particularly if Josh and the OL stay healthy.

 

 

 

The offense was better and more consistently good than it was Daboll's last year. Check the yardage and point totals.

[NewEra]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

The offense was better and more consistently good than it was Daboll's last year. Check the yardage and point totals.

Over the course of the entire season,

 

watching the games suggests that our offense was running on all cylinders up until the 2nd half of the packer game.  Then things changed.  We suddenly weren’t having the same type of success.  We had success….. but we took a step back from my eye. 
 

I’m not going to look at any stats-  I just watch the games a few times each week. 

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Well it also includes five meaning a regression.  Why do you think they might regress to five. 

Because there are several question marks that are still unanswered. How will Cook play going into his 2nd year? Can Harris stay healthy? Which WR steps up besides Diggs? How will rookie Kincaid contribute? How will the oline gel together? Will Dorsey become a dynamic play caller? Will the Bills commit to the run game? Can they effectively run the ball? Can the offense avoid serious injuries,? Can back ups contribute and not be huge liabilities? Will Allen still be running the ball a lot? 

 

Are implying that a top 5 offense is bad? I'm just not ready to say the Bills offense is going to be #1 in the NFL. Sure it's possible. Thus, I went the safer route to say they will be a top 5 offense so long as Allen stays healthy. I don't think that's unrealistic or a bad thing. 

 

Hope that clarifies my post.

[Big Turk]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Over the course of the entire season,

 

watching the games suggests that our offense was running on all cylinders up until the 2nd half of the packer game.  Then things changed.  We suddenly weren’t having the same type of success.  We had success….. but we took a step back from my eye. 
 

I’m not going to look at any stats-  I just watch the games a few times each week. 

 

Daboll had at least 4 games that had lower points/yardage totals in his last year than any game we had last year.

[newcam2012]

48 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

BTW, you red-x'd my comment, so I've been meaning to ask, here are KC's starting WRs this season.  Which of them do you think is going to carry the water the most on the receiving end, and why, given their performances in the NFL to date?  

 

Kelce's 34 this season and into his back-9.  Tony Gonzalez, the best TE in the history of the modern game began slowing down significantly at 33/34.  

 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling   https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/ValdMa00.htm  

Kadarius Toney   https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ToneKa00.htm  

Skyy Moore https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MoorSk01.htm  

 

What kind of overall receiving numbers do you expect for that group?  ... even with Mahomes throwing.  

 

I hadn't heard of any of them prior to recently in this discussion.  

 

 

I got that and I don't dispute the KC WR group looks weaker than last year. That's not really the point I'm making here. 

 

I'm trying to imply that KC's offense will be excellent primarily due to Mahomes and Reid's play calling. I think it's plug and play for lots of the receivers. A bit simplistic but I think it's accurate at the same time. 

 

Look at what happened when they lost Tyreke  Hill who happens to be one of the best NFL WRs in the game. They didn't miss a beat and won a SB. Most knowledge football fans thought the Chiefs would dearly miss Hill. In short, Mahomes and Reid can make average to below average WRs shine and get them to produce. 

 

Lastly, look at the Chiefs WR core last year. They were below average on paper. This year is similar. Also, your premise that Kelce is older and due to regress is unfounded. There is no evidence the guy is going to regress. Sure it's possible but it's equally possible he still can't be stopped. I still think he's a beast this season; especially playoff time. I don't see the Bills stopping him!

 

Don't get caught up in the talent at the WR position with the Chiefs. Focus more on Mahones and Reid and their abilities to excell. Their system of mixing the pass and run. Keeping defenses off balanced.  (look how they shredded that elite Eagle defense) They are winners and the best in the game! Think Brady/Belichick if you will. For years, Brady had below average WRs and still excelled. Come playoff time, the Chiefs will be ready. 

 

In short, the Chiefs have the best coach, GM, and QB in the league. They look like a dynasty team. A team the Bills have been chasing for years...

Edited August 10, 2023 by newcam2012

[Special K]

42 minutes ago, colin said:

 

assuming we can run block some and our new big backs and a growing cook give us a bit of power, an EP offense run by josh allen out of a two TE single back set is a scary scary sight. 

 

if diggs and harty are the WRs (won't be a problem of lack of blocking w the big bodies near the line) you have match up speed and agility issues at both TE slots (how many nfl teams can say that?), RB, both WR, and allen himself is a problem.

 

We know that this team only goes as far as Josh Allen can take it, so giving him a more diverse set of weapons will be a big help.

 

Like you said, lets just hope the O-line can do a good enough job to let Allen take advantage of all of the "mis-match" opportunities.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Daboll had at least 4 games that had lower points/yardage totals in his last year than any game we had last year.

Not sure what that has to do with my post

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I got that and I don't dispute the KC WR group looks weaker than last year. That's not really the point I'm making here. 

 

I'm trying to imply that KC's offense will be excellent primarily due to Mahomes and Reid's play calling. I think it's plug and play for lots of the receivers. A bit simplistic but I think it's accurate at the same time. 

 

Look at what happened when they lost Tyreke  Hill who happens to be one of the best NFL WRs in the game. They didn't miss a beat and won a SB. Most knowledge football fans thought the Chiefs would dearly miss Hill. In short, Mahomes and Reid can make average to below average WRs shine and get them to produce. 

 

Lastly, look at the Chiefs WR core last year. They were below average on paper. This year is similar. Also, your premise that Kelce is older and due to regress is unfounded. There is no evidence the guy is going to regress. Sure it's possible but it's equally possible he still can't be stopped. I still think he's a beast this season; especially playoff time. I don't see the Bills stopping him!

 

Don't get caught up in the talent at the WR position with the Chiefs. Focus more on Mahones and Reid and their abilities to excell. Their system of mixing the pass and run. Keeping defenses off balanced.  (look how they shredded that elite Eagle defense) They are winners and the best in the game! Think Brady/Belichick if you will. For years, Brady had below average WRs and still excelled. Come playoff time, the Chiefs will be ready. 

 

In short, the Chiefs have the best coach, GM, and QB in the league. They look like a dynasty team. A team the Bills have been chasing for years...

 

I hear ya, but I think we've lost focus of them original point that I made that you took issue with.  My point was that we have no reason not to be better than KC offensively this season, not that KC's O wouldn't be good, which would be an idiotic proposition.  I see no reason why we shouldn't be #1 in the AFC in both points and yards.  I'm sure that KC will be#2 or 3, top-5 worst case.  

 

Otherwise, that step down from Hill to Schuster is a lot different than to what it is now.   I'm not sure I see any of those guys going much over 1,000 if at all.  

 

As to Ken's, again, the point is that he's not going to get better, only worse at 34.  

 

 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

I hear ya, but I think we've lost focus of them original point that I made that you took issue with.  My point was that we have no reason not to be better than KC offensively this season, not that KC's O wouldn't be good, which would be an idiotic proposition.  I see no reason why we shouldn't be #1 in the AFC in both points and yards.  I'm sure that KC will be#2 or 3, top-5 worst case.  

 

Otherwise, that step down from Hill to Schuster is a lot different than to what it is now.   I'm not sure I see any of those guys going much over 1,000 if at all.  

 

As to Ken's, again, the point is that he's not going to get better, only worse at 34.  

 

 

That's fair. I took it a step further. If I can continue that theme. 

 

Whose offense at do you trust more come playoff time? For me, it's KC all day everyday. They are the proven commodity. I didn't think KC could shred that Eagle defense like that. 

 

How did the #1 and #2 ranked Bills defense do come playoff time the last few years? Don't get lost in the stats. Bills O vs the Bengals D? 

 

The Chiefs will gladly take regular season losses to the Bills. It will gladly accept the Bills being the statistically better ranked O. Come playoff time, the Chiefs know how to beat the Bills. They could careless what the stats say or the regular season. 

Edited August 10, 2023 by newcam2012

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

The offense was better and more consistently good than it was Daboll's last year. Check the yardage and point totals.

 

 Yeah, and that was with a healthy Josh Allen in 2021. The offensive line was brutal that year until Ryan Bates started playing in the 2nd Pats game in December.

 

 How bad did the offense get in 2021? Look no further than Josh, 1st 7 games 17 TDs, 3 INTs & on a 5 game streak with at least a 100 QB Rating. The last 10 games 19 TDs, 12 INTs and only 3 games where he topped a 100 QB Rating. And that was against a very easy schedule in 2021.

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Yeah, and that was with a healthy Josh Allen in 2021. The offensive line was brutal that year until Ryan Bates started playing in the 2nd Pats game in December.

 

 How bad did the offense get in 2021? Look no further than Josh, 1st 7 games 17 TDs, 3 INTs & on a 5 game streak with at least a 100 QB Rating. The last 10 games 19 TDs, 12 INTs and only 3 games where he topped a 100 QB Rating. And that was against a very easy schedule in 2021.

 

 

 

 

People forget that because they caught fire in the playoffs having a perfect offensive game against the Pats and then that crazy offensive show with the Chiefs in the 13 second game, but there were games when the offense wasn't great...Jags game especially comes to mind.

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

That's fair. I took it a step further. If I can continue that theme. 

 

Whose offense at do you trust more come playoff time? For me, it's KC all day everyday. They are the proven commodity. I didn't think KC could shred that Eagle defense like that. 

 

How did the #1 and #2 ranked Bills defense do come playoff time the last few years? Don't get lost in the stats. Bills O vs the Bengals D? 

 

The Chiefs will gladly take regular season losses to the Bills. It will gladly accept the Bills being the statistically better ranked O. Come playoff time, the Chiefs know how to beat the Bills. They could careless what the stats say or the regular season. 

 

Yes get the coach to not squib kick it and then play defense like they were guarding against a 100 yard bomb.

[newcam2012]

6 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

People forget that because they caught fire in the playoffs having a perfect offensive game against the Pats and then that crazy offensive show with the Chiefs in the 13 second game, but there were games when the offense wasn't great...Jags game especially comes to mind.

 

Yes get the coach to not squib kick it and then play defense like they were guarding against a 100 yard bomb.

If memory serves me correctly the Bills still had a chance to win the game in OT. The vaunted and highly ranked Bills defense gave up a TD. Never giving the Bills O a chance. This is often a forgotten fact. 

 

Bottom line is the Chiefs won. They followed that up with a SB win a last year. They deserve the accolades. 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by newcam2012

[Big Turk]

18 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

If memory serves me correctly the Bills still had a chance to win the game in OT. The vaunted and highly ranked Bills defense gave up a TD. Never giving the Bills O a chance. This is often a forgotten fact. 

 

Bottom line is the Chiefs won. The followed that up with a SB win a last year. They deserve the accolades. 

 

 

 

The Bills O never touched the ball in OT. Virtually all rules favor the offense why would anyone think the defense should ever win in those matchups?

 

[newcam2012]

25 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

The Bills O never touched the ball in OT. Virtually all rules favor the offense why would anyone think the defense should ever win in those matchups?

 

The Bills defense could have held the Chiefs to a FG. That's what I was hoping for real time. Or even better the Chiefs would go for it on 4th down and miss. 

 

Sure it was a huge asking for the Bills D. In real time, I was hoping the D could make a big play. The Bills D looked scared, timid, and playing not to lose. 

 

As a result, Hill made a huge play and crushed Bills fans. One for the history books! 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

That's fair. I took it a step further. If I can continue that theme. 

 

Whose offense at do you trust more come playoff time? For me, it's KC all day everyday. They are the proven commodity. I didn't think KC could shred that Eagle defense like that. 

 

Well, LOL, that's a somewhat different matter.  Since you ask in the present, I'll answer in the present.  

 

They are the proven commodity and IMO that's the difference between McD/Dorsey, McD/Daboll, and Reid/Bienemy, with the emphasis on Reid since he's an offensively oriented coach.  As you know, I'm not an apologist of McD.  No need to rehash the details.  However, to the extent that they have the edge, I would say that the dramatic difference is Reid v. McD, and it is dramatic IMO.  

 

Having said that, other than for the Cincy game, offense has not been our problem.  Again, keeping it in the present, I'll use the last two season's playoffs.  Apart from the Cincy game, and I'll defer to the benefit of the doubt on that one re: all the issues we faced last season, but apart from that game, in the other three playoff games over the past two seasons (3 other games), in regulation we averaged 39 Points-per-Game, 25.7 1st-Downs, 312 Passing Yards, and 442 Total Yards.  I'm not sure how anyone could impugn an offense for doing that regularly.  

 

In contrast, in their 6 postseason games over the past two seasons in regulation, KC has averaged 31.7 Points-per-Game, 24.5 1st-Downs, 282 Passing Yards, and 411 Total Yards.  So I fail to see how our offense was the problem, other than for the difference between McD and Reid in situational coaching.  Even then, for us to outproduce them like that is impressive.  

 

Since we were also talking about the dropoff in play between Hill v. Smith-Schuster, but for reference purposes, in the playoffs in regulation, the difference between 2021 (Hill) and 2022 (Smith-Schuster) was 4.7 Points-per-Game, 4.4 1st-Downs, 65 Passing Yards, and 90 Total Yards, which is nothing to sneeze at, nor can it be ignored.  

 

So what's the dropoff this season from Smith-Shuster to Moore or Toney?  I'd say that it'll be significant.  So I don't share that view that losing Smith-Schuster now too won't matter.  

 

 

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

How did the #1 and #2 ranked Bills defense do come playoff time the last few years? Don't get lost in the stats. Bills O vs the Bengals D? 

 

I would argue the same, don't get lost in anything regarding the offense.  The Defense, as you accurately said, was ranked 2nd and 1st the past two seasons respectively going back.  In the 2022 playoffs however, where we had the 2nd-ranked Scoring D on the regular season, for all teams that had at least two playoff games, we ranked 7th out of 8, and embarrassingly behind the first four teams.  And Miami, which we allowed 31 points to, was the second worst scoring team in the divisional round, only the Giants were worse.  So it's not as if we faced the top two scoring teams.  

In 2021 we had the 1st-ranked regular season Scoring D, but in the playoffs, of all teams that played at least two games, we ranked 5th out of 6, and again, embarassingly behind the first three teams, and only the Chiefs were worse. 

 

So from where I sit, that's really the core of the problem, and considering that McD is a Defensively oriented coach .... 

 

Again, this season will reveal much there.   

 

 

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The Chiefs will gladly take regular season losses to the Bills. It will gladly accept the Bills being the statistically better ranked O. Come playoff time, the Chiefs know how to beat the Bills. They could careless what the stats say or the regular season. 

 

That's true, but every season is a different season as we shall see.  IMO, other than for OL, we have better skill position talent than the Chiefs do.  Coaching of course may once again be our undoing.  We'll see, but we nearly beat them in 2021 and should have, it wasn't the players that lost that game much less the Offense.  

 

I simply disagree with this notion that no matter who KC's receivers are, their offense is still the best in the league.  (n fact, in their two first playoff games in the Division and Conference Championship rounds, KC only averaged 25 PPG which was only 3 points above-average on the season, and 360 YPG, only about 20 YPG better than average on the season.  Those were against the 21st and 28th ranked Scoring Ds, and the 7th and 24th ranked Yardage Ds.  We shall see.  

 

 

[T master]

On 8/9/2023 at 9:16 AM, Cray51 said:

Our offense will hum like it did to start the year.

 

When you go back and watch the first quarter of last year, the guy that consistently jumps out as making big time plays was - Isiah McKenzie.  They used him in the slot role, and he was an outlet Josh looked to multiple times throughout the game.  As the year went on, Isiah made some mistakes (thinking of that fumble against the Chiefs) and started to struggle.  All of a sudden, Diggs wasn't generating as much, Davis looked poor, and our offense looked disjointed.

 

This team benefits from having a true slot option.  Josh can play pocket passer more frequently if so.  If Kincaid can come in and force teams to truly defend the slot, the rest of our offense opens up BIG time.

 

I think it's the single biggest question mark on offense going into the year.

 

Well they have been looking for someone to do what Beasley did for Josh while he was here . Since they got rid of Bease the offense has lacked that dependable go to guy, so if he can do what Beasley did and add to that his YAC yards yes this offense will be very scary .

 

Put on top of that the improvement IMHO of the running game O M G this could be vewy vewy exciting .

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, T master said:

 

Well they have been looking for someone to do what Beasley did for Josh while he was here . Since they got rid of Bease the offense has lacked that dependable go to guy, so if he can do what Beasley did and add to that his YAC yards yes this offense will be very scary .

 

Put on top of that the improvement IMHO of the running game O M G this could be vewy vewy exciting .

I hear you. Very valid data and analysis. 

 

I just can't get out of my mind how a one legged QB led his team to the SB. Along the way he beat an upcoming team and an elite and dangerous Cincinnati team. How he shredded the elite Philly D. 

 

I may be wrong but I'm pretty convinced Mahones and Reid will excell no matter who their WRs are. Don't overlook how good their oline is. That's really a key piece to their success. Can we say the same for the Bills? 

 

Agree 100 percent on your coaching comments. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by newcam2012

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The Bills defense could have held the Chiefs to a FG. That's what I was hoping for real time. Or even better the Chiefs would go for it on 4th down and miss. 

 

Sure it was a huge asking for the Bills D. In real time, I was hoping the D could make a big play. The Bills D looked scared, timid, and playing not to lose. 

 

As a result, Hill made a huge play and crushed Bills fans. One for the history books! 

 

Based on how the game had gone up to that point what have you any confidence that either defense would have done that? Whoever had the ball first in OT was winning that's game.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Big Turk

[newcam2012]

8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Based on how the game had gone up to that point what have you any confidence that either defense would have done that? Whoever had the ball first in OT was winning that's game.

Agree but that didn't mean that either defense couldn't have made a big play. 

 

I'm pretty sure you still had hope even after the Bills lost the coin toss. 

[Punching Bag]

If Kincaid plays receiver more than tight end and at end of contract Bills try to tag him he may argue he needs to be tagged at the higher WR price.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Agree but that didn't mean that either defense couldn't have made a big play. 

 

I'm pretty sure you still had hope even after the Bills lost the coin toss. 

 

Obviously had hope but realistically I knew it was over.

[Royale with Cheese]

If Kincaid can fill the slot role very well, James Cook is going to explode in the run game as well.