A players perspective on the Bengals game

[Beast]

I said they were going to hit a wall after the Hamlin incident. I think that actually happened the week before against Miami and it carried over.

[Einstein]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well you are entitled to do what you want but that is how the valuations are worked by teams. 

 

According to who? Show me the NFL team that has released data on how they value trades. It doesn’t exist. Last we heard, NFL teams have all but scrapped that old chart in favor of proprietary charts they make in house and you don’t have access to.

 

 

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Regardless, no discounting it bumps the overall value of the trade up 1 extra pick. It is still a mid 2nd.

 

No one said it wasn’t a 2nd. You seem to be fighting a battle that isn’t in contention. Though the old chart is useless now since teams have changed it and we don’t know the new values, it probably is *somewhere* around a high to mid 2nd round pick.

 

But all I said was the Chiefs got hosed and I stand by that. The funny part is that if you go to ChiefsPlanet, they say the same thing. Top 5 money and a plethora of picks for a mediocre LT that was the weak link in their line.

 

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Edited March 23, 2023 by Einstein

[BillsPride12]

2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

You look at Bufs previous 25-30 games and that game sticks out like a sore thumb. No team treated us like that , not 1 that beat us up on both sides of the ball. 

Just a bad day at the office

Colts in 2021.  When push comes to shove we just aren't strong enough in the trenches

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

According to who? Show me the NFL team that has released data on how they value trades. It doesn’t exist. Last we heard, NFL teams have all but scrapped that old chart in favor of proprietary charts they make in house and you don’t have access to.

 

 

 

No one said it wasn’t a 2nd. You seem to be fighting a battle that isn’t in contention. Though the old chart is useless now since teams have changed it and we don’t know the new values, it probably is *somewhere* around a high to mid 2nd round pick.

 

But all I said was the Chiefs got hosed and I stand by that. The funny part is that if you go to ChiefsPlanet, they say the same thing. Top 5 money and a plethora of picks for a mediocre LT that was the weak link in their line.

 

.

 

The Rich Hill chart is definitely worth looking at, but that is a chart that tracks what is happening, it isn't used as a starting point. How do I know? Because I speak to people who actually have experience of being in those rooms. The starting point remains the Jimmy Johnson chart and then the deviation from it depends on the strength of the board at that point. 

 

So the last we heard if what we do is a google search is not the same as the reality.

[DrDawkinstein]

18 minutes ago, Beast said:

I said they were going to hit a wall after the Hamlin incident. I think that actually happened the week before against Miami and it carried over.

 

Yeah, they were done after that MNF game.

 

They just happened to "get lucky" and have two more games against floundering divisional opponents who they were so familiar with they could essentially sleepwalk to victories (barely). Once they had to play a "real game" their situation was exposed.

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Taiwan is currently a free agent so it doesn’t benefit him to cover for the coaches as you suggest

Yes it does, what HC wants to sign a guy who throws his former HC under the bus,

[Einstein]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Rich Hill chart is definitely worth looking at, but that is a chart that tracks what is happening, it isn't used as a starting point. How do I know? Because I speak to people who actually have experience of being in those rooms.

 

Well if you’re friends with NFL GM’s then I won’t argue with you. I’ll be skeptical but I won’t argue.

 

But in that case, we should be trading our next years 1st round picks every year for quality NFL players, since it’s only a 2nd round pick. Right?

[SCBills]

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, they were done after that MNF game.

 

They just happened to "get lucky" and have two more games against floundering divisional opponents who they were so familiar with they could essentially sleepwalk to victories (barely). Once they had to play a "real game" their situation was exposed.

 

I think I agree with this.  I remember watching some of Dion Dawkins interviews, and everything he said was perfectly fine given the situation, but thinking deep down that the season was over.  You could tell that the focus and mentality needed to win when it matters wasn't remotely anywhere near where it needed to be going into the playoffs. 

[DapperCam]

17 hours ago, Einstein said:

Excuses.

 

We lost because the Bengals are the better team right now. From coaches to players.

Maybe they are slightly better. But the Bills got blown out and didn’t even show up. Based on roster talent, games vs the Bengals should be a toss up.

 

Saffold said similar things (team was emotionally spent and didn’t have anything left in the tank). Maybe it is an excuse, but it can still be true.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Well if you’re friends with NFL GM’s then I won’t argue with you. I’ll be skeptical but I won’t argue.

 

But in that case, we should be trading our next years 1st round picks every year for quality NFL players, since it’s only a 2nd round pick. Right?

 

I'm not friends with NFL GMs, no. But I do have a couple of former NFL scouts who I am on DM'ing terms with. And they have been in draft rooms and seen the process even if they were not ultimately decision makers. 

 

As for the second line, I mean that was the Rams strategy. They considered themselves in "win now" mode, and valued future picks as being worth less to them in that scenario. 

[Billl]

26 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Trey Smith was taken with the pick you got from Carolina. 

 

You can try to rationalize it because KC selected Bolton, but the fact is that they could have taken Bolton with the #31 pick too.

 

In all, KC gave up a 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in exchange for a medicare LT that gave up 11 pressures in the playoffs a 2nd and a 6th. And they only got that mediocre player for 2 years and one of those years they had to pay him top 5 money.

 

Your own fans at ChiefsPlanet know the trade sucked. There’s a whole thread about it.

There was no “pro bowl quality LT” about it. He’s painfully mediocre and i’m very happy Cinci overpaid him. 

One of us is rationalizing, I'll give you that.  I've taken my kids to two Superbowl parades in the last 3 years, so I suppose we can agree to disagree on which one of us it is.

 

And sure, the Chiefs could've taken Bolton or Creed or Trey at 31, and they'd all look like good picks in hindsight.  Instead, they got all those players PLUS the LT who sucked to bad that the Chiefs hung 552 yards and 42 points on the Bills in the playoffs his first season (I guess Groot and Boogie didn't get the memo that Brown sucks) and 38 on the Eagles in the Superbowl his second year.

 

Maybe the Bills will have more success against the Bengals offensive line next year with Brown than they did this year against a bunch of backups.

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not friends with NFL GMs, no. But I do have a couple of former NFL scouts who I am on DM'ing terms with. And they have been in draft rooms and seen the process even if they were not ultimately decision makers. 

 

As for the second line, I mean that was the Rams strategy. They considered themselves in "win now" mode, and valued future picks as being worth less to them in that scenario. 

That’s the thing. If NFL teams really devalued next years picks, then we would be seeing mass swaps of future picks. Trade next years 1st round pick every year - it’s just a 2nd round pick after all - and load your team with players that have already proven themselves in the NFL. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Einstein said:

That’s the thing. If NFL teams really devalued next years picks, then we would be seeing mass swaps of future picks. Trade next years 1st round pick every year - it’s just a 2nd round pick after all - and load your team with players that have already proven themselves in the NFL. 

 

The reason we don't is the salary cap. 1st round draft picks are 5 years of cost controlled cheap labour of potentially high end talent.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

That’s the thing. If NFL teams really devalued next years picks, then we would be seeing mass swaps of future picks. Trade next years 1st round pick every year - it’s just a 2nd round pick after all - and load your team with players that have already proven themselves in the NFL. 

Didn't the Rams just do this and win a Superbowl?

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

One of us is rationalizing, I'll give you that.  I've taken my kids to two Superbowl parades in the last 3 years, so I suppose we can agree to disagree on which one of us it is.

 

You’re using the false fallacy that the end result means every move before that was good. Orlando Brown was not good. He gave up 11 pressures in the playoffs. That’s almost as many as some LT’s gave up all last season (17 games). 

 

You won the SB despite Orlando Brown. Not because of. Defenders blowing by him and pressuring Mahomes was not the key to victory. Trey Smith was a trade with the Jets. Not Ravens. And you could have taken Bolton AND a LT AND Trey Smith without ever trading for Brown, AND kept $16M in cap.

[Scott7975]

17 hours ago, Einstein said:

Excuses.

 

We lost because the Bengals are the better team right now. From coaches to players.

 

That may or may not be true but you could tell that only a handful of players looked like they wanted to be there and showed up to play.  The rest of them were checked out and wanting to go home.  It was pretty obvious looking at them that they were just going through the motions.  

 

Personally I do not care or like the excuses of "oh we were mentally drained from all the woes that happened during the season."  Most of those excuse marks are normal.  Two of them arent.  Hamlin is not normal but he came out fine.  It should have invigorated them him being in the stadium.  The shooting.  Of course people care and are affected by it but they didnt know any of those people.  Generally when you dont know someone that dies you move past it pretty quick.  Injuries... those happen to every team. Snow game... big deal.  They played in Detroit for a game.  No excuse to show up to that game disinterested when you were the super bowl favorites.  

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The reason we don't is the salary cap. 1st round draft picks are 5 years of cost controlled cheap labour of potentially high end talent.

 

With at least a 50% fail rate. 
Or… teams just don’t see next years picks as devalued by a round.

 

The other side of the coin is that by the devalue logic, teams should be begging other teams to take their good players in exchange for picks. So they can get a bunch of cost controlled players.

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Didn't the Rams just do this and win a Superbowl?

 

 

Philly went a similar route and didn't win it.  Lucky for them, they play in the JV league and their QB isn't falling apart... but they are bleeding talent this off-season. 

[FireChans]

Just now, SCBills said:

 

 

Philly went a similar route and didn't win it.  Lucky for them, they play in the JV league and their QB isn't falling apart... but they are bleeding talent this off-season. 

What.

 

Phlly hasn't NOT picked in the first round since 2018.  And they have 2 picks in the first round this year.

 

Can't think of a worse example of a "similar route"

[Billl]

12 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You’re using the false fallacy that the end result means every move before that was good. Orlando Brown was not good. He gave up 11 pressures in the playoffs. That’s almost as many as some LT’s gave up all last season (17 games). 

 

You won the SB despite Orlando Brown. Not because of. Defenders blowing by him and pressuring Mahomes was not the key to victory. Trey Smith was a trade with the Jets. Not Ravens. And you could have taken Bolton AND a LT AND Trey Smith without ever trading for Brown, AND kept $16M in cap.

WTF are you talking about?  The tackles taken 31 or later were Teven Jenkins (bust), Liam Eichenberg (bust at T and moved to G), Walker Little (bust), Jackson Carmen (bust), Dillon Radunz (bust), and Spencer Brown (LOL).

 

I don't think Reid and Veach are kicking themselves right now over missing out on those slapdicks.