Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[Scott7975]

Gabe is like a #2 WR.  The disconnect comes because we expect a #1 WR opposite Diggs like a few teams have.  Miami kinda has two #1s.  Bengals have two #1s.

 

I dont expect Gabe to demand a contract like Diggs because he is not of that caliber.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Scott7975

[Beck Water]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, Beck, there are millions of fans hooked on pro football.   Some of them are geeks like the guys at Pro Football Reference, who make all this data available. 

 

Just a minor note that I think this is ESPN's brainchild, not PFR.  

 

Other than that, you make some good points with which I overall agree.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

Top WR/TE 2022 Snap Count % and Targets

 

Davis - 85% - 93

Diggs - 77% - 154

Knox (TE) - 76% - 65

McKenzie - 51% - 65

Shakir - 25% - 20

 

Just to compare to the Chiefs:

 

Kelce (TE) - 80% - 151

Valdes-Scandling - 67% - 81

Smith - Schuster - 66% - 101

Grey (TE) - 52% - 34

Watson - 43% - 34

Moore - 27% - 33

Hardman - 26% - 34 (Injured)

 

Anybody see something that sticks out when we talk about the Bills #2 WR?

 

I'll say it again, Davis gets to many snaps and targets and Knox not enough targets.  That's just to start.

 

 

[Beck Water]

52 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Gabe is like a #2 WR.  The disconnect comes because we expect a #1 WR opposite Diggs like a few teams have.  Miami kinda has two #1s.  Bengals have two #1s.

 

I dont expect Gabe to demand a contract like Diggs because he is not of that caliber.

 

I actually think the disconnect may be a bit different.  People go further than saying he's not a #1B, and say he's not a #2 because he's too inconsistent and doesn't help the Bills move the chains reliably.  That opens the question, though, what is Davis being asked to do?

 

I think there are two types of #2 WR, (the #2 being the guy with the 2nd most targets): for want of a better term, I'll call them "move the chains" guys, and "vertical stretch/deep outlet" guys.

 

In 2020, the Bills #2 WR was undoubtedly Cole Beasley.  He was #2 in targets, yards, and ....1st downs with 53

In 2021, Beasley was still the #2 WR in targets and receptions, but his yards and 1st downs took a nosedive to 34.

Cole was absolutely a "move the chains" type #2.

 

People think Dorsey's offense = Daboll's, but Cover1 has made the point that it's the same terminology, but many of the details differed.  Last season, Gabe Davis was not asked to be a "move the chains" type #2 very often.  He was asked to be a vertical stretch or deep outlet guy, bringing in throws with overall lower completion probability.

 

IMHO the real problem for the Bills at WR last year was that we lacked a move-the-chains Beasley type guy.  Some combination of Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir, and Knox were supposed to be That Guy, but it didn't work out for different reasons.  So I'm not sure we need to replace Davis, so much as we need to replace Beasley, and I'm not sure Shakir is that guy - some people don't think he has the quickness to be a slot, and last season I don't think he understood zone coverage enough.

Edited March 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 If y'all really wanted to show appreciation for Gabe, this thread would end on this page. Page 13.

 

[Beck Water]

18 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Top WR/TE 2022 Snap Count % and Targets

 

Davis - 85% - 93

Diggs - 77% - 154

Knox (TE) - 76% - 65

McKenzie - 51% - 65

Shakir - 25% - 20

 

Just to compare to the Chiefs:

 

Kelce (TE) - 80% - 151

Valdes-Scandling - 67% - 81

Smith - Schuster - 66% - 101

Grey (TE) - 52% - 34

Watson - 43% - 34

Moore - 27% - 33

Hardman - 26% - 34 (Injured)

 

Anybody see something that sticks out when we talk about the Bills #2 WR?

 

I'll say it again, Davis gets to many snaps and targets and Knox not enough targets.  That's just to start.

 

Davis gets as many snaps as he does because he was the best blocker of the WR and it isn't close.  He was the WR who stayed on the field in (2,1) sets (2 RB, 1 TE) and blocked downfield, in situations where KC might run a (2,2) set and bring in Grey as their 2nd TE.

 

That aside, I was saying during the season that Knox needed more targets.  He finished the season with the best catch % on the team.  He was often assigned to chip and then release into short routes though.

[Victory Formation]

56 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Gabe is like a #2 WR.  The disconnect comes because we expect a #1 WR opposite Diggs like a few teams have.  Miami kinda has two #1s.  Bengals have two #1s.

 

I dont expect Gabe to demand a contract like Diggs because he is not of that caliber.

The way I see it, Gabe is on a 1 year deal, the same as all these players we’ve also signed to a 1 year deal this offseason.

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Davis gets as many snaps as he does because he was the best blocker of the WR and it isn't close.  He was the WR who stayed on the field in (2,1) sets (2 RB, 1 TE) and blocked downfield, in situations where KC might run a (2,2) set and bring in Grey as their 2nd TE.

 

That aside, I was saying during the season that Knox needed more targets.  He finished the season with the best catch % on the team.  He was often assigned to chip and then release into short routes though.

 

He's on the field too much for me.  Bills need to use the TEs more.  I got no problem with drafting another TE too.

KC used 2 other TEs (Bell got hurt) and threw to TE over 200 times.  The Bills threw to TEs 77 times.

Modern NFL Offenses use TEs.

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I actually think the disconnect may be a bit different.  People go further than saying he's not a #1B, and say he's not a #2 because he's too inconsistent and doesn't help the Bills move the chains reliably.  That opens the question, though, what is Davis being asked to do?

 

I think there are two types of #2 WR, (the #2 being the guy with the 2nd most targets): for want of a better term, I'll call them "move the chains" guys, and "vertical stretch/deep outlet" guys.

 

In 2020, the Bills #2 WR was undoubtedly Cole Beasley.  He was #2 in targets, yards, and ....1st downs with 53

In 2021, Beasley was still the #2 WR in targets and receptions, but his yards and 1st downs took a nosedive to 34.

Cole was absolutely a "move the chains" type #2.

 

People think Dorsey's offense = Daboll's, but Cover1 has made the point that it's the same terminology, but many of the details differed.  Last season, Gabe Davis was not asked to be a "move the chains" type #2 very often.  He was asked to be a vertical stretch or deep outlet guy, bringing in throws with overall lower completion probability.

 

IMHO the real problem for the Bills at WR last year was that we lacked a move-the-chains Beasley type guy.  Some combination of Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir, and Knox were supposed to be That Guy, but it didn't work out for different reasons.  So I'm not sure we need to replace Davis, so much as we need to replace Beasley, and I'm not sure Shakir is that guy - some people don't think he has the quickness to be a slot, and last season I don't think he understood zone coverage enough.

Interesting argument. I think Josh Downs might be a consideration early if this analysis is shared by Beane.

[HOUSE]

No

[Shaw66]

52 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Davis gets as many snaps as he does because he was the best blocker of the WR and it isn't close.  He was the WR who stayed on the field in (2,1) sets (2 RB, 1 TE) and blocked downfield, in situations where KC might run a (2,2) set and bring in Grey as their 2nd TE.

 

That aside, I was saying during the season that Knox needed more targets.  He finished the season with the best catch % on the team.  He was often assigned to chip and then release into short routes though.

This new take on the problem is interesting.  Thanks to Colorado for coming up with the data.  

 

I like your take, that he's on the field a lot because he blocks.  And that may help explain why he got so many targets.   And, I'll admit, that's where Davis's failings catching the ball become a bit of a problem.  

 

I had the same thought about Knox.  

 

But if the reason Davis is on the field is to block, then Hopkins and Beckham (1) are not going to like being in that role, and (2) may not be  good at it.  

 

So, I still come back to Dorsey.  What is the running game going to look like?  Is a quality blocker necessary (that's why Kumerow brought some value)?  If the running game is going to be the feature, then the Bills need Davis on the field, and if that's why he's playing, then his reception totals actually are great.   Or, would the Bills be willing to tank the running game, get a stud receiver for a year or two to pair with Diggs?   Whatever they do, whichever way they go, it will be up to Dorsey to make it work.   

 

Frankly, I think McDermott is all about being balanced, being multiple, That's why they got Harris - McDermott wants to be a better power running team.  And that's why they got Harty - he wants to attack deep.   He wants to be able to do everything.  And that's why they like Davis, because he's a better blocker than most receivers, and he's a better receiver than most blockers (like Kumerow).  

 

All of which says to me that the Bills think Davis is just what they want in the position, and they'll work on his receiving skills.  

[BananaB]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

So, I had to look at the catch percentage data.   I mean, who ever looks at that?   But I was curious.

 

Davis is 186th, at 51%.   See any other names under 60%?  I did.  

 

Names like Deebo Samuel, Courtland Sutton, Elijah Moore, Julio Jones, Davante Adams.   Maybe it's time for the 49ers to move on from Samuel.   

When Davis is a multiple threat like Deebo I’ll turn my head.  Do Julio Jones and Adams have it for last season, or career? Nice try though.  Julio has also been on his last leg for a couple years now. When Gabe faces double coverage like those two have during their career you let me know how it goes. And I don’t give two ***** about Courtland Sutton or Moore.  I also noticed Adams had his first two years in his mid 50s  then improved while Davis had his first two year in mid 50s then decreased. So what are you going on about? Give me some good examples. 

Edited March 30, 2023 by BananaB

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, BananaB said:

When Davis is a multiple threat like Deebo I’ll turn my head.  Do Julio Jones and Adams have it for last season, or career? Nice try though.  Julio has also been on his last leg for a couple years now. When Gabe faces double coverage like those two have during their career you let me know how it goes. And I don’t give two ***** about Courtland Sutton or Moore.  I also noticed Adams had his first two years in his mid 50s  then improved while Davis had his first two year in mid 50s then decreased. So what are you going on about? Give me some good examples. 

I love how you have a little explanation for why your arguments aren't wrong.   Like somehow Davis's horrible catch percentage means he's a problem.   The catch percentage alone.  But Deebo's catch percentage isn't  a problem, for some reason.  I just proved to you that catch percentage is not a good measure of how good a receiver is, but you reject the proof.   

 

You also dismiss that he was 34th in the league in yards receiving, because somehow that stat isn't meaningful for him but it's meaningful for everyone else because Davis isn't "consistent."

 

Sorry, you've failed and you don't even know it.   

[Maine-iac]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This new take on the problem is interesting.  Thanks to Colorado for coming up with the data.  

 

I like your take, that he's on the field a lot because he blocks.  And that may help explain why he got so many targets.   And, I'll admit, that's where Davis's failings catching the ball become a bit of a problem.  

 

I had the same thought about Knox.  

 

But if the reason Davis is on the field is to block, then Hopkins and Beckham (1) are not going to like being in that role, and (2) may not be  good at it.  

 

So, I still come back to Dorsey.  What is the running game going to look like?  Is a quality blocker necessary (that's why Kumerow brought some value)?  If the running game is going to be the feature, then the Bills need Davis on the field, and if that's why he's playing, then his reception totals actually are great.   Or, would the Bills be willing to tank the running game, get a stud receiver for a year or two to pair with Diggs?   Whatever they do, whichever way they go, it will be up to Dorsey to make it work.   

 

Frankly, I think McDermott is all about being balanced, being multiple, That's why they got Harris - McDermott wants to be a better power running team.  And that's why they got Harty - he wants to attack deep.   He wants to be able to do everything.  And that's why they like Davis, because he's a better blocker than most receivers, and he's a better receiver than most blockers (like Kumerow).  

 

All of which says to me that the Bills think Davis is just what they want in the position, and they'll work on his receiving skills.  

Even if we wanted forgo running the ball there wasn't a WR who would have replaced Davis last year at the 2 spot.  If we had a Hopkins or OBJ I'm sure they wouldn't think twice about starting them across from Diggs.  I'm not entirely sure they brought Harris here to start.  Cook just might end up being the starter and Harrris might just be here to keep Allen from being our goal line and short yardage back like he has been.  Either way if (IF) we bring in someone more talented than Davis I'll bet they see the field run or no run but so far Davis is still the second best receiver we have.  Currently their best option is to get more production from the slot and TE positions draw some of the coverage away from Davis and hope you get more production.  I personally think he had a bit of a down year and you could see a better year (within reason) especially in a contract year. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

I like your take, that he's on the field a lot because he blocks.  And that may help explain why he got so many targets.   And, I'll admit, that's where Davis's failings catching the ball become a bit of a problem.

 

With respect, I think they’re a bit separate issues.  It’s the difference between Davis being on the field 65-75% of the snaps as a WR vs another 10-20% to block on screens and run plays

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

But if the reason Davis is on the field is to block, then Hopkins and Beckham (1) are not going to like being in that role, and (2) may not be  good at it.  

 

True Dat. But they would likely be on the field 60-ish % of the snaps.  Davis and/or Sherfield will be used as blockers, which is why it’s important Sherfirld showed he can really catch last year.  But he’s a very good downfield blocker

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

So, I still come back to Dorsey.  What is the running game going to look like?  Is a quality blocker necessary (that's why Kumerow brought some value)?

 

Kumerow’s value was minimized because his abilities as a receiver were minimal, so he telegraphed the play 

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

If the running game is going to be the feature, then the Bills need Davis on the field, and if that's why he's playing, then his reception totals actually are great

 

I’ve probably been unclear.  Davis was on the field primarily as WR2.  But he got such a high % of the snaps vs other receivers, because he was usually on the field for 4, 3, and 2 WR sets due to his blocking ability in run plays

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Or, would the Bills be willing to tank the running game, get a stud receiver for a year or two to pair with Diggs

 

Really shouldn’t have to be a choice, but Dorsey might have to stop living in (1,1) personnel.  Gilliam is a legit route runner and receiver for a FB and Morris is a legit route runner and receiver as a TE (his blocking is improving).  So Dorsey has options, where putting a (2,1) or (2,2) set need not telegraph run

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Whatever they do, whichever way they go, it will be up to Dorsey to make it work.   

 

Yep

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Frankly, I think McDermott is all about being balanced, being multiple, That's why they got Harris - McDermott wants to be a better power running team.  And that's why they got Harty - he wants to attack deep.   He wants to be able to do everything.  And that's why they like Davis, because he's a better blocker than most receivers, and he's a better receiver than most blockers (like Kumerow).  

 

All of which says to me that the Bills think Davis is just what they want in the position, and they'll work on his receiving skills.  

 

That may be a legit way of looking at it, but we still IMHO need an upgrade at receiver.  It may be a good reason to draft a rookie WR and not a high price vet who may sulk if his snap and target count aren’t high enough

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Even if we wanted forgo running the ball on wasn't a WR who would have replaced Davis last year at the 2 spot.  If we had a Hopkins or OBJ I'm sure they wouldn't think twice about starting them across from Diggs.  I'm not entirely sure they brought Harris here to start.  Cook just might end up being the starter and Harrris might just be here to keep Allen from being our goal line and short yardage back like he has been.  Either way if (IF) we bring in someone more talented than Davis I'll bet they see the field run or no run but so far Davis is still the second best receiver we have.  Currently their best option is to get more production from the slot and TE positions draw some of the coverage away from Davis and hope you get more production.  I personally think he had a bit of a down year and you could see a better year (within reason) especially in a contract year. 

Someone said when Harris signed that they hope he will be what Moss didn't measure up to - the power back with enough mobility to handle the running game in general.   I think that's right.  McDermott wants to platoon his backs, and as I said, he loves being versatile.  I think he wants to platoon Harris and Cook, sort of Motor-heavy and Motor-light.   The Bills like to pull their linemen and overload the point of attack, and that's the kind of style that Harris can do damage in.   He can move the pile.   So I'm expecting to see Cook probably start, but be spelled on every third series or so by Harris.   Harris will get goal line duty, and Hines will sub in at various times, maybe particularly as the third down back when Harris is on for his shift.  

 

And I agree about Davis having a down year.  It was his first season as a full-time starter, and I suspect he learned some lessons.   I expect him to have more impact in 23.  

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Interesting argument. I think Josh Downs might be a consideration early if this analysis is shared by Beane.

 

Since I know nothing about the kid, I looked up his draft profile

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-downs/3200444f-5768-6145-dd60-3fbae406310a

 

I kind of did 😬 when I got to "undersized slot with an oversized will".   I'd kind of like to see us have a couple normal-size WR.

 

I do think Harty is on the team now and getting paid pretty well, because the Bills think he can succeed in the slot at least part-time.

 

But you could be right - it seems I've heard other people mention him

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I don't have any major quarrel with this.   I'm not going to be surprised to see the Bills get what they can from Davis and then move on.  Oh, and by the way, I know you weren't saying Davis should go, but others are. 

 

Reading what you said made me think one other thing.   There are very few teams that actually keep their #2s around very long.  Colts did it for a long time, but it's much of a revolving door for teams.   That's because there's a limit to how many players teams can lock up for the long term, and #2 receiver is virtually never a priority, because of needs at more important positions.  So, who the next #2 is going to be is a continuing question for GMs.  What Beane meant when he said he's fine with Davis (whatever his exact words were) was that #2 receiver is not a problem now.   

 

When you have an established #1 you are paying and a QB you are paying it doesn't make sense to pay a #2. My preference has always been the Steelers model in the 00s and 10s. They had Santonio Holmes as their #1 and still drafted Mike Wallace in the 3rd and Emmanuel Sanders in the 2nd in the next couple of years as well as some fella name Antonio Brown in the 6th round. When they transitioned from Wallace as the #1 to Brown as the #1 they still took Markus Wheaton in the 3rd in 2013; then (former Bill ) Dri Archer in the 3rd and Martavius Bryant in the 4th in 2014; then Sammie Coates in the 3rd in 2015; then JuJu in the 2nd in 2017; James Washington in the 2nd in 2018; Deonte Johnson in the 3rd in 2019. 

 

Which meant even when they transitioned away from Antonio Brown they had some pieces in place and Johnson became their #1 (at least by pay and targets), Claypool was taken in the 2nd, Pickens in the 2nd, Calvin Austin in the 4th.... they just continue taking shots. 

 

Not all of those have paid off as you will see looking at the names. But they have consistently had young talented receivers in bulk on the roster and you only need 1 or 2 to break out. It is why I am critical of Beane having been here 5 drafts now and the earliest he has drafted a wide receiver is 4th round. Even with Stefon Diggs on board they should be taking those shots early and often IMO. Not spending day 2 picks on running backs!!

[BananaB]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I love how you have a little explanation for why your arguments aren't wrong.   Like somehow Davis's horrible catch percentage means he's a problem.   The catch percentage alone.  But Deebo's catch percentage isn't  a problem, for some reason.  I just proved to you that catch percentage is not a good measure of how good a receiver is, but you reject the proof.   

 

You also dismiss that he was 34th in the league in yards receiving, because somehow that stat isn't meaningful for him but it's meaningful for everyone else because Davis isn't "consistent."

 

Sorry, you've failed and you don't even know it.   

Do you not know what consistency is? If a guy has one big game then a bunch of below average games, does that big game cancel out the below average ones? In my opinion I don’t think it does and I’m sure the majority of people will agree with me. I’m not dismissing the yards, I’m looking at every game to see where he got those yards.

Edited March 30, 2023 by BananaB

[T master]

I don't believe the Bills do but i think the national media does Beane & Josh feel he is a very good team player that they can depend on to give his all off & on the field & he had a bit of a up & down season last year & i know he's working hard to be better this season .