Thoughts on the pass defense?

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

GunnerBill knows more than us, just ask him.

 

Actually he probably does, but the eye test is pretty clear too.

 

Tre's Int was a bad read and Tre had position and was a pretty easy int (though a Bills wideout probably drops it as it was into coverage🤣).

 

NFL Live yesterday said that the Bills are going nowhere with the Defense playing like this and pointed out Mac was 17-17 in their scoring drives.  

 

So the question is does GunnerBill know more than those on NFL Live?😉

Gunner Bill is one of my favorite posters here. He is really fair with his assessments and breakdowns. Of course, it's fair not to always agree with his takes. 

 

To be fair, Gunner Bill is on the record saying the defense is a concern. Furthermore, in a post to me he stated the Bills offense is likely going to have the win games vs Cinci and KC.

 

Believe it or not, I don't think there's much distance in their viewpoints. 

6 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

If you guys change the channel when the Bills are on defense, how do you know when the offense is back on the field?

Honestly, I don't know how you can watch a football game like that. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by newcam2012

[Brand J]

For once, I’d like for a QB from a good offense to look dejected in his post game presser and say, “it was like they were in our huddle. They knew everything that was coming.”
 

With Von out, it’s clear we lack difference makers on that side of the ball, so it’s mostly on Frazier to scheme his chess pieces into positions that give them a chance to make a play. When the defense gives up easy TD drives, where receivers are running wide open and/or there’s very little resistance in the run game, I think it’s fair to put that on the coordinator. His call wasn’t the correct one to counter the offense on that play.

I love a well timed blitz that gets a player an unimpeded path to the QB (who doesn’t?) Edmunds had one of those yesterday and we should’ve been awarded an intentional grounding (Mac shouldn’t be able to throw the ball at the feet of a receiver who’s engaged in a block and not a viable outlet). We need more timely calls against the likes of KC and CIN; the frequency to which a defensive coordinator can come up with those calls - or live in the offense’s huddle - is how he’s judged. 

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Gunner Bill is one of my favorite posters here. He is really fair with his assessments and breakdowns. Of course, it's fair not to always agree with his takes. 

 

To be fair, Gunner Bill is on the record saying the defense is a concern. Furthermore, in a post to me he stated the Bills offense is likely going to have the win games vs Cinci and KC.

 

Believe it or not, I don't think there's much distance in their viewpoints. 

Honestly, I don't know how you can watch a football game like that. 

I'm having fun and agree with 80-90% of what GunnerBill says.  Whether he agrees with my takes are something else.

 

I've become an anxious mess watching the Bills as they are so close to the SB.

[section122]

10 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I think this is fools gold here. We said this previously when the Bills had the #1 ranked defense. We all knew the defense was vastly overrated then and couldn't be trusted. They failed to make the stops when they had to. 

 

Fast forward to now. No way do I trust this defense in the playoffs vs KC, Cinci, and LA. They are just too young, injuried, inconsistent, and predictable. I hope I'm wrong but no way would I be confident that this defense in its current can make a big stop to win the game. 

 

Don't get caught up in the stats. They don't paint an accurate picture especially when it comes to playing quality playoff offenses. 

 

I acknowledge that being down to the 3rd string fs and missing von are troublesome.

 

That said....

 

Bills got a goalline stop against the vikings after the 4th and 18 play.  They made the play that would have won the game if not for josh fumbling the snap.

 

They made the stop in the first miami game to get the ball back.  

 

They held the chiefs to their 2nd lowest point total of the year.

 

This defense is good again people are emotional when watching which makes it really hard to compare to other teams.  Additionally a lot of people here don't watch other teams in general.  

 

If you and others are this concerned about the bills defense how do you feel about the chiefs? Or the Bengals for that matter?

 

The chiefs defense has been suspect all year Other than sack numbers.  I did a quick cursory look but couldn't find a single defensive stat the bengals were better than the bills in.

 

Stop being worried about who we have to play.  Those teams have to play us!

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

GunnerBill knows more than us, just ask him.

 

Actually he probably does, but the eye test is pretty clear too.

 

Tre's Int was a bad read and Tre had position and was a pretty easy int (though a Bills wideout probably drops it as it was into coverage🤣).

 

NFL Live yesterday said that the Bills are going nowhere with the Defense playing like this and pointed out Mac was 17-17 in their scoring drives.  

 

So the question is does GunnerBill know more than those on NFL Live?😉

 

"Going nowhere" is open to interpretation. Going nowhere with 3 takeaways? I mean that can get you somewhere. Ultimately it is points and non-scoring drives. 

 

I say this every time we play Kansas City. To have a chance you need to get them off the field 4 times without points. How you do that doesn't matter. Turnovers, punts, 4th down stops, time expiring.... you need to get them off the field without scoring 4 times. If you do that you have a good chance to win. I guess it will be similar with Cincinnati but we haven't seen that matchup of those two teams play out yet so we don't know. 

 

The Bills forced the 4th most turnovers in the NFL. They had the 2nd best redzone defense. Those are the elements they will have to rely on in the playoffs because I don't think the secondary without one of its three studs and with the other 2 not at their peak health (Tre working back, Poyer on a torn meniscus) is going to consistently force 3 and outs. 

 

I do not think the Bills can be a defensive led team in these playoffs. But to be honest even at their best I am not sure they could have been. The elite QBs are all in the AFC. They are going to have to play opportunistic defense, take the ball away, make some redzone stands, hang on with their fingernails and then ask their offense to win them football games. They have to try and score 30 the whole way. That will give them a shot.

 

@Billsfan1972 - I know you will claim turnovers have a randomness to them, and of course to an extent that is true. But the Bills have been top 10 in taking the ball away in all 6 McDermott seasons. The last 3 years they have been 3rd, 3rd and 4th. That isn't coincidence or luck. It is good coaching that puts players in the right place to take the opportunities that come their way in ball games. They will need to get their hands on a few if the Bills are going to win the Superbowl... but I wouldn't put it past them at all.

Edited January 11, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Patrick Duffy]

7 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Do you think that Tre's int was pretty much a 50 50 pass?

BINGO!

 

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Yep.

 

While it may have been a 50/50 ball Tre INT, at least he was able to get into position to make a play on it. I would hope that INT might in some way give him a little boost in confidence for him. Would be great to see him turn it up at this perfect time.

 

 

[newcam2012]

58 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I acknowledge that being down to the 3rd string fs and missing von are troublesome.

 

That said....

 

Bills got a goalline stop against the vikings after the 4th and 18 play.  They made the play that would have won the game if not for josh fumbling the snap.

 

They made the stop in the first miami game to get the ball back.  

 

They held the chiefs to their 2nd lowest point total of the year.

 

This defense is good again people are emotional when watching which makes it really hard to compare to other teams.  Additionally a lot of people here don't watch other teams in general.  

 

If you and others are this concerned about the bills defense how do you feel about the chiefs? Or the Bengals for that matter?

 

The chiefs defense has been suspect all year Other than sack numbers.  I did a quick cursory look but couldn't find a single defensive stat the bengals were better than the bills in.

 

Stop being worried about who we have to play.  Those teams have to play us!

 

 

That's very fair. Go back and look at several of my post. I've stated that KC and Cinci will have a hard time stopping the Bills O too. 

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't agree with this post at all. In fact, I think it's pretty disingenuous. I don't care what the stats say. Jones played well, looked good, and was exploiting the Bills secondary. Don't forget to look at the stats of the Pats offense. They are arguably one of the worst offenses in the league. Not a small point to neglect. 

 

 

If you don't care what the stats say, it's because you've got an agenda. Stats don't say it all. But they absolutely do tell a lot of the picture.

 

Jones didn't exploit the Bills secondary. Three INTs. 243 yards. This simply isn't especially good. Did they have some good moments? Yeah. But that's nearly always what even really bad games look like. Some good moments, but not especially effective overall.

 

Saying they went through us like a knife through butter - which is what I was replying to - is just nonsense.

[QLBillsFan]

No excuses on db execution. It’s not been very good. Elam had a penalty and got beat on a great play by Pats. But at least he showed some semblance of tight coverage. I do think some of the Bills overall lack of execution has to do with very limited practices. From before Thanksgiving to the Pats game they haven’t had anything remotely resembling a normal practice routine. Back to back Sunday’s at 1 should really help. Just my thoughts…

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

GunnerBill knows more than us, just ask him.

 

Actually he probably does, but the eye test is pretty clear too.

 

Tre's Int was a bad read and Tre had position and was a pretty easy int (though a Bills wideout probably drops it as it was into coverage🤣).

 

NFL Live yesterday said that the Bills are going nowhere with the Defense playing like this and pointed out Mac was 17-17 in their scoring drives.  

 

So the question is does GunnerBill know more than those on NFL Live?😉

 

 

Um, no. That's really not the question at all. One of many questions might be, does that stat from NFL LIve directly disagree with what Bill said. And the answer would be, "Um, no, of course they don't. Whoever tries to pretend they do is spinning like a centrifuge."

 

Specifically addressing NFL Live's stat that you quote, there are about six or seven relevant questions.

 

Question 1: The most basic question. Is it true that "Mac was 17-17 in their scoring drives." NO. That is false. Take another look at the play-by-play as I did. I've counted at least two INCs so far in those drives and I stopped there. So I guess that at least so far, I'd have to say that apparently NFL Live knows less than just about anybody about the stat they cited (or you misheard or misreported).

 

Question 2: Even assuming they did well in the air on four drives, does that mean they did well in the whole game? Um, that's self-evident. Of course the answer is no.

 

Question 3: How many drives did they have? Eleven.

 

Question 4:  If you did well in four drives out of eleven, does that mean you did well?  Um, duh.

 

Question 5:  Did they do well in the passing game when they managed 234 yards on 40 throws with 3 INTs?  Again, um, duh. Not awful. But certainly not good.

 

Question 6: Did NFL LIve actually say @the Bills are going nowhere with the Defense playing like this"? Hard to say. You quoted them on two things, and the other one is wrong, and you've got no link for this. Can you produce a link? It's hard to imagine why anyone would say that about a defense that has allowed 17.8 PPG in the last five games and is DVOA's fourth best defense.

 

 

The fact is they had four scoring drives, one of which started from the Bills nine yard-line. 23 points when you had one drive start nine yards away from the goal line just is not very impressive.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Beck Water]

On 1/8/2023 at 9:07 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

You are so right. Epenesa/Basham are truly JAGs. Epenesa is a one trick pony. I've never seen him turn speed into power. No pass rush moves whatsoever. Rousseau was a beast this afternoon. Hopefully Shaq has another game like he had against Dolphins in Buffalo

 

Shaq seems to be revved up against the Dolphins

Phillips likely would be too, but I don't think we'll see him due to injury.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I'm having fun and agree with 80-90% of what GunnerBill says.  Whether he agrees with my takes are something else.

 

I've become an anxious mess watching the Bills as they are so close to the SB.

 

 

This much I can totally agree with. They still look like a really tough team, but without Von Miller I'm considerably less arrogant about their chances. But yeah, I'm nervous every game the last half of the season even though they look really good.

[Beck Water]

13 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

GunnerBill knows more than us, just ask him.

 

LOL.  Love ya Gunner

 

13 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Tre's Int was a bad read and Tre had position and was a pretty easy int

 

Not sure what the point is here. 

QBs make bad reads and DBs get position on NFL WR at times. 

Happens to Allen at times (more than I'd like this year, but that's another story)

 

Is it somehow an indictment of our defense if we are able to exploit this when another QB does so?

 

13 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

NFL Live yesterday said that the Bills are going nowhere with the Defense playing like this and pointed out Mac was 17-17 in their scoring drives. 

 

NFL Live is apparently incorrect, as a moment's perusal of the box score for NE's scoring drives tells us....but in any case, this is an example of what I'd call a "Garbage Can Stat".  It represents a subset that is cherry-picked to sound really significant, but that misrepresents or neglects the Big Picture.  "Did you know that Americans spend more on pet food than baby food?" would be an example of this.  It sounds like Americans prioritize pets over young children, but if you think a minute, babies only eat baby food for a short period of time while pets eat pet food all their lives.

 

When a team scores, they're typically having an efficient drive.  What did Mac Jones do on the 8 drives where the Pats didn't score (7 if you want to give him the end of half)?

 

The answer is:  3 3-and-outs, 3 INTs, 2 plays before end of half, and a 5 and out. 

 

Horrible defense, That.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Beck Water

[AlfaBill]

On 1/8/2023 at 8:10 PM, NickelCity said:

#MICAHWATCH

 Not going to happen. He was asked point blank on OBL and said not a chance. 

[NickelCity]

4 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

 Not going to happen. He was asked point blank on OBL and said not a chance. 

 

And when was this?? Don't break my heart alfa

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

Definitely not confident in our pass defense, but oddly enough, I'm confident in our run defense which I've never experienced under this josh Allen regime. Past years teams could bully us up front and control the game via line of scrimmage.... That's not happening now, it might help cover up the pass weakness.

[Billever76]

16 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Geez seem to be saying that every week.  

 

Oh another QB completing a 50/50 throw (could say the same thing about the first int.  BTW would be nice to see a Bills receiver catch a 50/50 ball.....😉)

 

So again Bills fans are excited about how they played vs. Mac Jones?  

 

Well NE should be even more excited they held Allen to 21 points (and lamenting two long completions) and outscored the Bills offence 23-21. 

To be fair if those returns weren't made and Allen gets 2 additional possessions do you think he scores a big fat goose egg?

[AlfaBill]

7 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

And when was this?? Don't break my heart alfa

I heard Tasker and Brown talking about it today. They mentioned that Hyde was in the studio last week and they asked him about that. He said drs are telling him no chance. 

[Big Turk]

It's about league average now. I know some think it's terrible. But realistically it's league average...it just was so good for so long that it looks terrible in comparison.

 

They are typically much better in the RZ...in fact they are the best RZ D in the NFL.

 

They get INTs. They aren't going to simply shut teams down like they used to anymore tho. Not sure if we get back to that tbh 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Big Turk

[Patrick Duffy]

11 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

It's about league average now. I know some think it's terrible. But realistically it's league average...it just was so good for so long that it looks terrible in comparison.

 

They are typically much better in the RZ...in fact they are the best RZ D in the NFL.

 

They get INTs. They aren't going to simply shut teams down like they used to anymore tho. Not sure if we get back to that tbh 

 

I think that's fair to an extent. They have had some decent games here and there and games they struggled quite a bit. And Hamlin (God bless him) is pretty bad in coverage. Also if you recall Dane Jackson had a streak that was getting a little too long where he had a tough time too. But I agree with you when looking at the big picture, it's around that average I would think