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If trap games existed, these three would be them according to BillsWire


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26 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

They did this to us last year too. I hate it

 

We literally have one of the most favorable schedules in the NFL in terms of our net rest days versus opponents net rest days and don't play any opponents coming off a bye week.

 

Pretty sure those far outweigh this one instance

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Trap games do exist. The fact that the numbers suggest good teams don't lose trap games very often doesn't mean they don't exist. The definition is simply a game capable of being overlooked.

 

Essentially a trap game is a game against a perceived weaker opposition between two games that are perceived as more significant / against better teams. When I look at this schedule only really the Steelers at home between the Ravens and the Chiefs might count as that. And even then this is still the Pittsburgh Steelers, right? With all that history and no losing seasons since Bush Jnr's 1st term.... I am not sure they are a classic trap game. If the game that week was Detroit or the Jets or the Bears then I'd say classic trap game. 

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15 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I think it is in the eye of the beholder. If you play like crap and beat yourself then it is a trap game.  If you play well but the underdog wins well that is just playing the games.  

 

As for this season, I think it will be Bills at Jets Nov 6.  Buffalo will be beyond the first 6 game gauntlet and coming off a home win over the Packers.  Jets are an improved roster.  Jets 27 Bills 17

 

I don't think any divisional game can be called a trap game. Sure the Bills might lose but they know the importance of winning the division and these games are the most important followed by conference games. 

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17 hours ago, Big Turk said:

But we all know trap games don't exist right?

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/3-trap-games-buffalo-bills-2022-nfl-season/

 

TLDR: 

Week 3 Fins 

Week 5 Steelers 

Week 16 Bears

 

 

At a pro level I don't think there are trap games since the guy you are against is a pro also. At lower levels, especially high school, the trap game is real because you don't plan properly for a bad team who happens to play up for a half. 

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The offensive game plan for the jags game was atrocious. We go in with a banged up offensive line. The best unit on all of Jacksonville is probably their DL.  What does Daboll decide to do? Give Singletary/Moss 11 carries combined and proceed to throw the ball 50 times. Josh Allen was under extreme pressure all day and Daboll never adjusted. It was infuriating to watch. I have a feeling KD would have called a better game. Gauging from FA signings and the draft, it seems we might be adding a dynamic rushing attack w/ more 2 TE packages to the arsenal. These sets will come in handy in games like the jags game. Hopefully we can impose our will when we should be able to. 

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I’ll be honest. At this point, I’ll be surprised if we just keep going down into Miami and beating a solid division opponent. Odds say it’s just not gonna keep happening. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they finally got us this year… and then brace for the narratives and headlines that follow until we see them again and blast them 

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12 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

That doesn't make it a trap game tho...that just means they weren't prepared.

 

They were unprepared for an inferior opponent, thinking that it would be an easy win. That's pretty much the definition of a trap game.

 

 

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18 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Bad teams always have about a 20% chance to win a given game versus good teams...when it happens it's not a trap game, simply the law of averages.

 

The so-called "law of averages" is a fallacy.

 

https://www.coursehero.com/study-guides/boundless-statistics/the-law-of-averages/

https://study.com/academy/lesson/law-of-averages-definition-formula.html

 

 

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I know the schedule is tough early in the year but if the Bills play the way they are capable of then 11-6 to 13-4 is the floor/ceiling for this team. Assuming injuries don't play a factor.

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20 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

Squish the Fish Week is NEVER a trap game. The f***ing stealers beat us last year and might be best us again, it’s not a trap game….

Maybe, “da bears,”  is a trap game.

 

the Steelers SHOULD NOT beat us.  We have a much better roster at nearly every position except RB and OLB/DE (give slight edge to Watt over Von Miller, perhaps it's a push).  Why they generally beat us is bizarre.  And I live in PGH and am quite sick of it!!!!

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Trap games do exist. The fact that the numbers suggest good teams don't lose trap games very often doesn't mean they don't exist. The definition is simply a game capable of being overlooked.

 

Essentially a trap game is a game against a perceived weaker opposition between two games that are perceived as more significant / against better teams. When I look at this schedule only really the Steelers at home between the Ravens and the Chiefs might count as that. And even then this is still the Pittsburgh Steelers, right? With all that history and no losing seasons since Bush Jnr's 1st term.... I am not sure they are a classic trap game. If the game that week was Detroit or the Jets or the Bears then I'd say classic trap game. 

 

Except studies going back many years looking at exactly these type of situations show NO such phenomena occurring.  In fact, teams had a slightly better record in these so called "trap games" than they did in similar "non-trap games".

 

If this was an actual thing, it would be borne out over a lengthy period of time in actual statistics showing there was a greater chance of losing these type of games.  There is no such correlation to note. In fact, the opposite.

Edited by Big Turk
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20 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

After Jacksonville I’ll put a bit of weight on the trap game concept. 

I would add that the Jacksonville game should be used by coaches and team leaders for years to come as motivation to perform in EVERY SINGLE GAME.  That loss cost us home field advantage in the divisional playoff round vs. KC and probably the Lombardi Trophy.  And a side note to McD ... when the day isn't going your way, take the effing 3 points when you can.  Appreciate the bravado in going for TDs, but we lost 9-6 and had several opportunities for 3 points and came away with nothing.

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23 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Except studies going back many years looking at exactly these type of situations show NO such phenomena occurring.  In fact, teams had a slightly better record in these so called "trap games" than they did in similar "non-trap games".

 

If this was an actual thing, it would be borne out over a lengthy period of time in actual statistics showing there was a greater chance of losing these type of games.  There is no such correlation to note. In fact, the opposite.

 

You misunderstand my point. Teams don't need to lose trap games for there to be trap games. The meaning of trap game is just a game you could overlook between two more significant games. That is it. It doesn't mean teams DO overlook them. The evidence suggests they don't. But that doesn't mean trap games as a concept are not a thing. It is just a term to define a perceived less important game between two perceived important games. 

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4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You misunderstand my point. Teams don't need to lose trap games for there to be trap games. The meaning of trap game is just a game you could overlook between two more significant games. That is it. It doesn't mean teams DO overlook them. The evidence suggests they don't. But that doesn't mean trap games as a concept are not a thing. It is just a term to define a perceived less important game between two perceived important games. 

 

It would be interesting to see how teams performed in relation to how they did the remainder of the season...ie, were they closer games than what would be suggested by their records/point spreads, etc.

 

A team could win the game, but still not perform well in it and do so because they overlooked the opponent.

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27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You misunderstand my point. Teams don't need to lose trap games for there to be trap games. The meaning of trap game is just a game you could overlook between two more significant games. That is it. It doesn't mean teams DO overlook them. The evidence suggests they don't. But that doesn't mean trap games as a concept are not a thing. It is just a term to define a perceived less important game between two perceived important games. 

If there is little statistical evidence of results being affected due to teams overlooking their next opponent, then it is a theoretical concept only. Which means that trap games dont exist, just the concept does. 

 

I look to the KC loss against the Bengals. It meets all the definitions of  trap game yet I dont believe they overlooked the Bengals. They had dug deep into their reserves to beat the Bills and were unable to replenish in time for their next game. 

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12 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

If there is little statistical evidence of results being affected due to teams overlooking their next opponent, then it is a theoretical concept only. Which means that trap games dont exist, just the concept does. 

 

I look to the KC loss against the Bengals. It meets all the definitions of  trap game yet I dont believe they overlooked the Bengals. They had dug deep into their reserves to beat the Bills and were unable to replenish in time for their next game. 

 

I'm not sure an AFCCG could ever qualify as a trap game. One of the components that has to be there is that your opponent has to be vastly inferior to you.  Don't see how you could make a case that a team playing in the AFCCG meets that criteria.

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