Sean McDermott Ranks 5th Among Coaches on EDJ Sports list

[JohnNord]

Many people have chastised Sean McDermott’s “conservative” decisions with the Bills.  It turns out that he’s one of the best at following what the analytics suggest.  

 

EDJ sports and analytics company created a model to analyze every coaching decisions.  The CCI stat specifically evaluated coaches on 4th down decisions.  

 

McDermott ranks 5th on this list among coaches overall.   14th in CCI and 4th in EPI.

 

Like Greg says below, he’s far from perfect, but he’s also not the Richard Jauron or Doug Marrone that some make him out to be.

 

 

[CaliBills]

but but but......  the era must end cause wahhhhhhh

[Ethan in Cleveland]

This is just one aspect of his job. Ourside of the 4th and 3 call against Tampa I've been moslty ok with his in game decisions.  I dont get too worked by the choice for going for two or an XP.  The percentages aren't that much different. Issues I have with him is roster make-up,  lack of player development, in game adjustments, and overall regression of the team. 

[Nextmanup]

This is an extremely narrow interpretation of his in-game decision making, which by and large has been terrible.

 

And no, he does not do what the math suggests he do, anywhere close to most of the time.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Most fans only look at their team and think the grass is always greener by making a change.

 

McDermott is a solid coach. He's not a top coach. He has to prove longevity still.  But he's right around the bottom of the top 10 easily.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Mr. WEO]

"he's way less bad than other coaches are'!!

 

woo hoooo!!

[CaliBills]

As @Buffalo_Stampede mentioned.  The grass isn't always greener just cause you hit a bit of a rough patch, though we still have a winning record and can still make the playoffs. 

[MrSarcasm]

37 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Most fans only look at their team and think the grass is always greener by making a change.

 

McDermott is a solid coach. He's not a top coach. He has to prove longevity still.  But he's right around the bottom of the top 10 easily.

Yeah which blows my mind. Out of the past 25 years- the grass has only been greener once- THAT WAS WHEN MCD WAS HIRED.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

20 minutes ago, MrSarcasm said:

Yeah which blows my mind. Out of the past 25 years- the grass has only been greener once- THAT WAS WHEN MCD WAS HIRED.

They've earned time. I think once you have back to back winning seasons you must have have back to back losing seasons before  the seat gets hot.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Buffalo_Stampede

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

This is an extremely narrow interpretation of his in-game decision making, which by and large has been terrible.

 

And no, he does not do what the math suggests he do, anywhere close to most of the time.

 

 

Not true, he usually does which is why he’s ranked so highly on the list.  I didn’t like the punts in the 4th quarter but one was a coin flip and the other actually favored for punting.  

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

This is just one aspect of his job. Ourside of the 4th and 3 call against Tampa I've been moslty ok with his in game decisions.  I dont get too worked by the choice for going for two or an XP.  The percentages aren't that much different. Issues I have with him is roster make-up,  lack of player development, in game adjustments, and overall regression of the team. 

 

Yeah I hear you…. I think the bigger issue is the roster and player development.  People have said that the Bills don’t make in-game adjustments when they have.  The adjustments were big failures.

 

To that extent though, I think you have to look Brandon Beane and his staff as well

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Many people have chastised Sean McDermott’s “conservative” decisions with the Bills.  It turns out that he’s one of the best at following what the analytics suggest.  

 

EDJ sports and analytics company created a model to analyze every coaching decisions.  The CCI stat specifically evaluated coaches on 4th down decisions.  

 

McDermott ranks 5th on this list among coaches overall.   14th in CCI and 4th in EPI.

 

Like Greg says below, he’s far from perfect, but he’s also not the Richard Jauron or Doug Marrone that some make him out to be.

 

 

 

 

Yeah I heard Sal and Joe talking about this on WGR this am.

 

14th in 4th down decisions.......coaching a team that isn't built to succeed by being cautious.......has had a significantly large game day impact since his sphincter tightened up in that AFCCG.

 

A good comparison might be Staley versus McDermott on 4th downs.

 

They have very comparable superstar QB talents in Allen and Herbert.........but Staley coaches to win on 4th down and McD has been coaching "not to lose" while having the more talented (but also mistake prone) roster.

 

Belichick ranks 30th in 4th down decision making..........but despite CCI claiming to take a ton of things into account........what it fails to show is that Belichick's team is built to play and win by being conservative.    They are conservative because they aren't dynamic but instead are just excellent in execution on both sides of the ball.

 

The Bills are dynamic but not consistent in execution on either side of the ball.   So over the 10-12 possessions they get per game they are best served trying to separate rather than keep the score close.    

 

Two distinctly different types of teams but McDermott plays it too much like he has the team that is built to win close games,  which he does not.

 

 

[JohnNord]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They've earned time. I think once you have back to back winning seasons you must have have back to back losing seasons before  the seat gets hot.

Thats why the bitching about firing McDermott is beyond me.  You can complain all you want about a coach but firing someone the after he took the team the AFCECG is a joke.  
 

I get the impression that some in the media don’t care for him and heavily criticize him.  

 

Above all else, McDermott has like 4 years left on his deal.  Even if the Bills end up at 7-10 and 6-11 in 2022 he’s still probably keep his job.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, JohnNord said:

Thats why the bitching about firing McDermott is beyond me.  You can complain all you want about a coach but firing someone the after he took the team the AFCECG is a joke.  
 

I get the impression that some in the media don’t care for him and heavily criticize him.  

 

Above all else, McDermott has like 4 years left on his deal.  Even if the Bills end up at 7-10 and 6-11 in 2022 he’s still probably keep his job.  

I think most people like him. He hasn't face adversity. This is the 1st his coaching staff and the players have faced adversity from local fans and media. We're finding out how they handle it.

 

 

[Roundybout]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

This is an extremely narrow interpretation of his in-game decision making, which by and large has been terrible.

 

And no, he does not do what the math suggests he do, anywhere close to most of the time.

 

 

 

"Aaaaaah my priors!"

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Many people have chastised Sean McDermott’s “conservative” decisions with the Bills.  It turns out that he’s one of the best at following what the analytics suggest.  

 

EDJ sports and analytics company created a model to analyze every coaching decisions.  The CCI stat specifically evaluated coaches on 4th down decisions.  

 

McDermott ranks 5th on this list among coaches overall.   14th in CCI and 4th in EPI.

 

Like Greg says below, he’s far from perfect, but he’s also not the Richard Jauron or Doug Marrone that some make him out to be.

 

 

 

 

I don't care what metrics were used, this ranking is an utter joke.  You are your record.  McD has a team that has perhaps the best QB in the NFL and cannot construct, develop, and/or coach in-game a roster to take advantage--as a result, we are looking at a likely wildcard at best. 

 

Also demonstrating that this is a joke/clickbait:  Harbaugh only at 10, he lost his 100 starting RBs and is still in the AFC North race.  

Bellicheat at 17, really?  Might win the AFC East with an average QB.  Built a roster perfect for such a QB.  And Arians just beat McD, and won the SB last year.  

Edited December 16, 2021 by RyanC883

[FilthyBeast]

LOL this chart means as much as it did having the Bills as the vegas SB favorites up until a few weeks ago.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

A good comparison might be Staley versus McDermott on 4th downs.

 

They have very comparable superstar QB talents in Allen and Herbert.........but Staley coaches to win on 4th down and McD has been coaching "not to lose" while having the more talented (but also mistake prone) roster.

 

Staley has killed his team's chances in a couple games this year because he has been over aggressive. There is a new trend of head coaches predicting the future and trying to win games in the first half. The rules of football may have changed somewhat over the last few years but the fundamentals are still the same - it's a 60 minute gauntlet and points are hard to come by.

 

I hated McDermott's decision to punt on 4th and 3 against the Bucs in real time, but maybe it was the right decision. If we failed to convert the Bucs would have had a short field and we would have lost all momentum. Instead they were backed up and even though they had a good drive it only ended in 3 points. At the end of the day his decisions left us with the ball inside the 10 yard line and a chance to score a game winning TD, and getting the ball in overtime with another chance to win. If he coached like Staley the game might have been a blowout loss in regulation.

Edited December 16, 2021 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

Not surprising. Bills are all in on analytics and I believe McDermott has Dennis Lock in his ear on game days for EPA analysis at critical junctures.

[Logic]

When Sal posted this on Twitter, SO MANY people replied calling it nonsense and ragging on McDermott.

The only thing is, 99% of their arguments were, well....not really arguments at all.

While you may not agree with Edj Sports' list or their reasoning, it's at least based on a quantifiable set of statistics that are based on how each decision affects win likelihood percentage. In other words, there is at least method to their madness.

By contrast, the people who want to crap on the list and say it's nonsense don't really have anything to back up their claims other than their subjective opinion, their gut feeling, or their lingering upset over recent Bills losses. 

Put differently: Who is more likely to have an accurate read on this situation? The unbiased, statistical analysis based study, or the angry Bills fans that call into radio shows? I know who I'm going with.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I heard Sal and Joe talking about this on WGR this am.

 

14th in 4th down decisions.......coaching a team that isn't built to succeed by being cautious.......has had a significantly large game day impact since his sphincter tightened up in that AFCCG.

 

A good comparison might be Staley versus McDermott on 4th downs.

 

They have very comparable superstar QB talents in Allen and Herbert.........but Staley coaches to win on 4th down and McD has been coaching "not to lose" while having the more talented (but also mistake prone) roster.

 

Belichick ranks 30th in 4th down decision making..........but despite CCI claiming to take a ton of things into account........what it fails to show is that Belichick's team is built to play and win by being conservative.    They are conservative because they aren't dynamic but instead are just excellent in execution on both sides of the ball.

 

The Bills are dynamic but not consistent in execution on either side of the ball.   So over the 10-12 possessions they get per game they are best served trying to separate rather than keep the score close.    

 

Two distinctly different types of teams but McDermott plays it too much like he has the team that is built to win close games,  which he does not.

 

 

I think that’s fair but there’s a flip side to a Brandon Staley as well.  I saw a LAC game earlier this year again Baltimore.  LAC fell behind and Staley went for it on fourth down a few times before the half and then once in third.  These were aggressive moves.  They didn’t convert them and ended up getting blown out.  Game was over in the 3rd.    
 

I think McDermott could take a few more chances.  I didn’t like the punts - but some of the criticism he takes about being overly conservative is overblown.