The Athletic has Bills' D jumping from 12th to 7th this year

[Inigo Montoya]

https://theathletic.com/2747220/2021/08/04/ranking-every-nfl-defense-from-1-to-32-going-into-the-2021-season/

 

This article came out 4 days ago in The Athletic.  The Athletic is a subscription service that I think is the best in the business and the only content I pay for except for the Buffalo News online service.   They believe the Bills' defense is going to make a jump this year and return more to form with previous seasons;

 

7. Buffalo Bills

 

Last season: 12th

 

There’s reason to believe the Bills can take a step forward from where they were last year. Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier have a knack for maximizing the talent available to them. Last year, linebacker Matt Milano played just 31 percent of the snaps because of injury, and defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted out. Both players are back in 2021. Buffalo has spent four first- or second-round picks on defensive linemen in the past three years. Between Ed Oliver, A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham, they’ve given themselves options up front. And Buffalo finished second in pass rush win rate last season.

 

From a scheme perspective, the Bills are going to be zone-heavy and play a lot of Cover-3 (a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders) and Cover-4 (a four-deep zone with three underneath defenders). They need to figure out the corner spot opposite Tre’Davious White but have strong safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Among the 12 Bills defensive players who logged at least 400 snaps last year, 11 are back. Overall, this a well-coached group that has upside if some young players emerge.

 

The Bills' offense averaged 29.9 points per game last year, 3rd best in the league.  The defense allowed 23.3 points per game on average which was 16th best in the NFL.  Even if the Bills' offense take a small step backwards this season from their sensational 2020 campaign, if the defense can regain some of their swag I think it will end up being a net positive for the team overall.

 

One of the things I'm most interested to see is how our defense matches up against the Patriots this year.  Belichick looks like he is trying to recreate his 2011 offense that featured Gronk and Aaron Hernandez by bringing in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry.  They can both catch and they're solid blockers so it will be hard to read whether they are setting up to run or pass.  The Pats also have a great O-line and enter the season with a consensus top 5 unit.  We should continue to see them field a run heavy offense this season.

 

They'll likely spend most of their offensive snaps in 12 personnel, 1 RB, 2 TE, and 2 WR.  This should help mask the Pats' weakness at WR.   If the Bills bring in more heavies to stop the run they can audible at the line and switch to a passing play targeting either or both of their releasing TEs, and vice versa if the Bills bring in more DBs.  One of the Bills' big weaknesses on defense the last few years has been stopping the run.  The Bills have followed the NFL trend of fielding lighter and faster LBs that can drop into coverage and get into passing lanes at the expense of fielding more traditional run stopping thumpers. 

 

Staying in 12 personnel on most snaps should help Newton and Mac Jones too.  They can make an easy pre-snap read on what defense the Bills have out there and only throw against the heavier run stopping defensive fronts increasing the likelihood of an easy completion.  It should be an interesting chess match between Belichick and McDermott / Frazier this season.  As The Athletic article notes above, hopefully the return of Star will clog up the middle of the line and provide a boost to our run defense and a healthy Milano (fingers crossed) will be a difference maker against the run and in the coverage of Henry and Smith.  

 

It's usually nice to catch the Pats early in the season because they typically get off to a slow start.  This year we won't face them until Week 12, but that should give McDermott and Frazier plenty of film to study on the Pats' new offense.  It's anyone's guess who will be their QB by that time.  The Pats have a late bye week this season, Week 13 right after we play them, so that shouldn't factor into a QB change prior to the Bills playing them.

 

If our defense can regain some of their form and our offense can stand pat, or only take a small step backwards in efficiency, the Bills' are going to be even more scary in 2021 than they were last season.

 

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[Kwai San]

Inigo - another very good set of insights.  I find issue with the following;

 

1. The D will regain more than "some" of their form.  I am firmly in the camp that between Star opting out and the loss of lordy I can not remember who it was to the phins caused a lapse that the Bills struggled to regain.  With Star returning, in pretty dam good form and the addition of the rooks....I see a marked improvement for the Bills on D.

2. The Bills will only move onward and upward on the O.  Between the improved (if even possible) chemistry of the WR's and Josh, the addition of Sanders and Jake the Snake, the addition of Hollister and the speed of Brieda the O is taking it to another level.  Just drool over the WR depth.  One goes down another goes in.  The rest of the NFL is looking at the WR corps of the Bills and shaking their heads.

3.  EFF the effing cheatriots.  They will be worried about us.  Why?  The Bills brain trust will have 11 weeks of film to dissect what BB has up his sleeve.  Normally the Bills face the cheats early to their disadvantage.  Those days are over.  Smith and Henry are NOT Gronk and the Criminal.  Jones and doofus are NOT Brady.  Nuff said.

 

Thanks for another good write up.....I am charged - can't tell huh? - for this season to begin!

 

Go BILLS!!

 

[Big Turk]

I don't see the offense taking a step back...I see them taking a step forward if anything

[BADOLBILZ]

 

As much money and draft capital as they've invested in the defense......most money spent on the DL in the NFL and 4 of their first 6 #1 picks invested on the defensive side of the ball.....anything less would be a disappointment.

 

Guys like Edmunds, Oliver and even Wallace should be poised for "career best" kinda's seasons.

 

 

[aristocrat]

The idea is like the colts had. Get an early lead and get sacks when the other team tries to pass to catch up 

[first_and_ten]

If this defense is top 7, look out

[Craig Oi]

1.   Lawson...Last season not only was the middle of the D a problem but so was setting the edge, this is where I hope to see Basham excel. Groot's length and give him some time to get his body right, as mentioned that's a lot of 1st round picks along the DL. This is the 2 Vets last year most likely. I'd still look to deal Hughes(I'd prefer it be Addison, but who wants him?) for a 2cb type, this isn't a knock on Wallace but more the guys behind him an injury to 'Tre and we are hurting.  If Wallace steps up GREAT... If not I think the wise move is to draft one in the 1st, 2 lock down corners w/ this front 7 and IF they develop. Get that big nickel piece and it's lights out!                                                                            I agree about the offense, I think it be will more diversified this season with the new pieces and a more competent run game. I highly doubt Josh will regress, I look for him to be even better. He wants to earn his money and then some, by the end of this contract it will be a bargain.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 As for NE, how can they not be better than last year? I don't see them beating us out of the division, but overtaking the phins that I can see. My enthusiasm is high for this team. I can see really see the pieces falling into place  this year, CB health not withstanding. I remember watching OJ on T.V., then his trade to the 49ers, the 70's dominance of Shula, The Chuck Knox "we're talking proud, bermuda triangle, if it wasn't for Fergy's damn gimpy ankle...Mini drought, Kelly rejection, then parade...Then the golden years but still no brass ring. Then the real drought capped off by Rex,ouch! A miracle Dalton hail mary...Playoffs! No chance of going anywhere but home, then the purge and the drafting of Allen. I MORE than trust the process, would anyone be surprised if say Oliver, Ford, A.J., Edmunds, a Rookie make the leap, some unknown (does Kumerow even count?) ...Hell Yeah I'm pumped...Go Bills!

Edited August 9, 2021 by Craig Oi

[foreboding]

6 minutes ago, Craig Oi said:

Lawson...Last season not only was the middle of the D a problem but so was setting the edge, this is where I hope to see Basham excel. Groot's length and give him some time to get his body right, as mentioned that's a lot of 1st round picks along the DL. This is the 2 Vets last year most likely. I'd still look to deal Hughes(I'd prefer it be Addison, but who wants him?) for a 2cb type, this isn't a knock on Wallace but more the guys behind him an injury to 'Tre and we are hurting.  If Wallace steps up GREAT... If not I think the wise move is to draft one in the 1st, 2 lock down corners w/ this front 7 and IF they develop. Get that big nickel piece and it's lights out!                      I agree about the offense, I think it be will more diversified this season with the new pieces and a more competent run game. I highly doubt Josh will regress, I look for him to be even better. He wants to earn his money and then some, by the end of this contract it will be a bargain.                                                                                                    As for NE, how can they not be better than last year? I don't see them beating us out of the division, but overtaking the phins that I can see.                                                       My enthusiasm is high for these guys...I remember watching OJ on T.V., then his trade to the 49ers. The Chuck Knox "we're talking proud, bermuda triangle, if it wasn't for Fergy's damn gimpy ankle...Mini drought, Kelly rejection, then parade...Then the golden years but still no brass ring. Then the real drought capped off by Rex,ouch! A miracle Dalton hail mary...Playoffs! No chance of going anywhere but home, then the purge and the drafting of Allen. I MORE than trust the process, would anyone be surprised if say Oliver, Ford, A.J., a Rookie make that leap, some unknown (does Kumerow even count?) ...Hell Yeah I'm pumped...Go Bills!

Jerry was our best rusher last year. 

[Solomon Grundy]

Can’t forget the loss of Lorax as well

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, aristocrat said:

The idea is like the colts had. Get an early lead and get sacks when the other team tries to pass to catch up 

 

Umm...you realize the Bills were mostly blowing people out by halftime last year right?

[Rubes]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Umm...you realize the Bills were mostly blowing people out by halftime last year right?

 

Like the Rams?

 

I was about to post something about the defense earlier and never got around to it. I was looking at the defensive rankings in different categories over the past 3 years, and it was interesting to see the trends. 2018 and 2019 were pretty good defensive years, with the rankings in many categories in the top 10, some in the top 5. Then 2020 came along, which was interesting in that our offense shot through the roof while our defense dropped in most statistical categories to the mid-teens.

 

So what to expect from this coming year? More like 2018/19, or more like 2020?

 

Like the Athletic article, I see us improving on defense. I agree that much of it will come with Star returning, the development of the younger players, and our ability to keep players on the field. I hope we get most categories up in the top 10. You'd think that if we could do that, we could write our ticket at least to the 2nd/3rd round of the playoffs, or further...

 

Personally, I think our success this season hinges a great deal on how improved our defense is.

 

[billsbackto81]

 

They need to figure out the corner spot opposite Tre’Davious White 

-------------- 

Uh Oh!! The Levi Wallace man crush fans here are not going to like this comment. Don't you know only certain Bills fans don't recognize what a "solid" CB2 Wallace is.

[aristocrat]

23 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Umm...you realize the Bills were mostly blowing people out by halftime last year right?

Yup. I heard the stat on nfl radio the other day about that. That’s the idea but they want to be better at it obviously with the high picks on d line.  

[Big Turk]

15 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Like the Rams?

 

I was about to post something about the defense earlier and never got around to it. I was looking at the defensive rankings in different categories over the past 3 years, and it was interesting to see the trends. 2018 and 2019 were pretty good defensive years, with the rankings in many categories in the top 10, some in the top 5. Then 2020 came along, which was interesting in that our offense shot through the roof while our defense dropped in most statistical categories to the mid-teens.

 

So what to expect from this coming year? More like 2018/19, or more like 2020?

 

Like the Athletic article, I see us improving on defense. I agree that much of it will come with Star returning, the development of the younger players, and our ability to keep players on the field. I hope we get most categories up in the top 10. You'd think that if we could do that, we could write our ticket at least to the 2nd/3rd round of the playoffs, or further...

 

Personally, I think our success this season hinges a great deal on how improved our defense is.

 

 

So if our defense doesn't improve we go 9-8? 

 

I doubt it very highly. Our offense is elite, Allen is elite, Diggs is elite...

 

If the defense is improved we could very well be trying Allen in the 4th quarter of most games. If it isn't we will still likely win 12 or 13 games.

 

 

[Rubes]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

So if our defense doesn't improve we go 9-8? 

 

Strange conclusion, but you do you.

We went 13-3 and made it to the AFCC with that middle-of-the-road defense. We looked great in many games, and struggled in several others. Still managed to do enough to get that far, but it wasn’t easy in the playoffs once we faced some of the really tough teams. And we all saw how we fared against the Titans and Chiefs.

 

So yeah, if our defense doesn’t improve from last year’s middling effort, we’ll continue to have trouble with those teams. If we can improve, that will go a long way toward bringing us a championship.

 

[Punching Bag]

8 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

From a scheme perspective, the Bills are going to be zone-heavy and play a lot of Cover-3 (a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders) and Cover-4 (a four-deep zone with three underneath defenders). They need to figure out the corner spot opposite Tre’Davious White but have strong safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Among the 12 Bills defensive players who logged at least 400 snaps last year, 11 are back. Overall, this a well-coached group that has upside if some young players emerge.

 

Quinton Jefferson was the 1 who is not back and had 400 snaps.

 

Josh Norman, Trent Murphy & Dean Marlowe were the other defense players in top 20 / 200+ snaps who are no longer on the team.

[TH3]

17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

https://theathletic.com/2747220/2021/08/04/ranking-every-nfl-defense-from-1-to-32-going-into-the-2021-season/

 

This article came out 4 days ago in The Athletic.  The Athletic is a subscription service that I think is the best in the business and the only content I pay for except for the Buffalo News online service.   They believe the Bills' defense is going to make a jump this year and return more to form with previous seasons;

 

7. Buffalo Bills

 

Last season: 12th

 

There’s reason to believe the Bills can take a step forward from where they were last year. Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier have a knack for maximizing the talent available to them. Last year, linebacker Matt Milano played just 31 percent of the snaps because of injury, and defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted out. Both players are back in 2021. Buffalo has spent four first- or second-round picks on defensive linemen in the past three years. Between Ed Oliver, A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham, they’ve given themselves options up front. And Buffalo finished second in pass rush win rate last season.

 

From a scheme perspective, the Bills are going to be zone-heavy and play a lot of Cover-3 (a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders) and Cover-4 (a four-deep zone with three underneath defenders). They need to figure out the corner spot opposite Tre’Davious White but have strong safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Among the 12 Bills defensive players who logged at least 400 snaps last year, 11 are back. Overall, this a well-coached group that has upside if some young players emerge.

 

The Bills' offense averaged 29.9 points per game last year, 3rd best in the league.  The defense allowed 23.3 points per game on average which was 16th best in the NFL.  Even if the Bills' offense take a small step backwards this season from their sensational 2020 campaign, if the defense can regain some of their swag I think it will end up being a net positive for the team overall.

 

One of the things I'm most interested to see is how our defense matches up against the Patriots this year.  Belichick looks like he is trying to recreate his 2011 offense that featured Gronk and Aaron Hernandez by bringing in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry.  They can both catch and they're solid blockers so it will be hard to read whether they are setting up to run or pass.  The Pats also have a great O-line and enter the season with a consensus top 5 unit.  We should continue to see them field a run heavy offense this season.

 

They'll likely spend most of their offensive snaps in 12 personnel, 1 RB, 2 TE, and 2 WR.  This should help mask the Pats' weakness at WR.   If the Bills bring in more heavies to stop the run they can audible at the line and switch to a passing play targeting either or both of their releasing TEs, and vice versa if the Bills bring in more DBs.  One of the Bills' big weaknesses on defense the last few years has been stopping the run.  The Bills have followed the NFL trend of fielding lighter and faster LBs that can drop into coverage and get into passing lanes at the expense of fielding more traditional run stopping thumpers. 

 

Staying in 12 personnel on most snaps should help Newton and Mac Jones too.  They can make an easy pre-snap read on what defense the Bills have out there and only throw against the heavier run stopping defensive fronts increasing the likelihood of an easy completion.  It should be an interesting chess match between Belichick and McDermott / Frazier this season.  As The Athletic article notes above, hopefully the return of Star will clog up the middle of the line and provide a boost to our run defense and a healthy Milano (fingers crossed) will be a difference maker against the run and in the coverage of Henry and Smith.  

 

It's usually nice to catch the Pats early in the season because they typically get off to a slow start.  This year we won't face them until Week 12, but that should give McDermott and Frazier plenty of film to study on the Pats' new offense.  It's anyone's guess who will be their QB by that time.  The Pats have a late bye week this season, Week 13 right after we play them, so that shouldn't factor into a QB change prior to the Bills playing them.

 

If our defense can regain some of their form and our offense can stand pat, or only take a small step backwards in efficiency, the Bills' are going to be even more scary in 2021 than they were last season.

 

 

Man  -  Are these freaking rankings getting tiresome or what? Flicking through the channels this weekend and Mike Lombardi blathering on about his QB "Tiers". 

 

Like they actually mean anythiing. I get it - lots of time and you gotta fill it up with some content...but at this point...they are starting to come across as nothing but self important blah blah blah.....

[Inigo Montoya]

21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

As much money and draft capital as they've invested in the defense......most money spent on the DL in the NFL and 4 of their first 6 #1 picks invested on the defensive side of the ball.....anything less would be a disappointment.

 

Guys like Edmunds, Oliver and even Wallace should be poised for "career best" kinda's seasons.

 

 

 

I agree that this is the year for someone to step up and make some noise on the D-line.

 

We have Oliver, Obada, Epenesa, Basham, and Rousseau.  If just one of those five can round into a dominant pass rusher then this Bills' roster is complete. 

[HOUSE]

Nice try but I'm still not paying for the Athletic

[Punching Bag]

34 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Nice try but I'm still not paying for the Athletic

 

Don't blame him.  Malpractice insurance costs so much with his mistakes.