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Bills 2021 Draft - Overall Assessment


Bills 2021 Draft Grade  

403 members have voted

  1. 1. What is your initial overall grade of the Bills 2021 Draft?

    • A
      106
    • B
      210
    • C
      63
    • D
      7
    • F
      2
    • T (for trees). Just kidding. Had to go there!
      15


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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Except that Long hasn't played in the NFL since 2019 and played guard then, sure it's a possibility! But if that's your standard for judging possible happenings, we're likely not going to agree too much.

 

Long was a relatively rare Bills error in judgement IMO.  We kept him and traded Teller because we wanted to have more veteran choices to ensure a quality line in 2019.  Long had better "positional flexibility" in that he'd played C and the Bills wanted to ensure that position, but Teller had the better long-term potential at guard, which is now fulfilled.  There was a bit of "NIH" (not invented here, not chosen by the new coach) with Teller in that judgement I think.

 

I agree that Beane is looking into the future and trying to map a course where the Bills can extend Allen, re-up Diggs, and still stay good.  I do worry that it won't let us improve this season.

 

 

I actually wasn't suggesting anything. I thought maybe @Shaw66 was alluding to this.

 

Right now, I see these OL picks as future (potential) gold. 

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Best draft of my lifetime.  They had a clear, sane strategy that makes perfect sense in today’s NFL where (i) you’ve got a franchise QB about to take up a big chunk of the cap; (ii) you need depth at

I like this draft because I see the intelligence of everything McBeane do.   They're confident and competent.  They're fearless.  They know what they want.   They know they aren't going to solve every

Overall my impression of this offseason in general, not just the draft:   Beane to DL and DL coach:  "You guys had better light your fires and get after the QB, or you're outta here and we'l

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21 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

It depends.  If they're winning and Pegs is compensating them both, there's no reason to leave. 

If this was the case Beane wouldn’t have just signed his extension through the same year as McDernott’s. They both know they have it good, get along and are here long term. What’s higher up than a GM anyway?

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1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

 Could you imagine if Buffalo lands Ertz because he is a cap casualty in Philly?

Yeah, an aging expensive TE with diminishing production is just what we need when are struggling for cap space as it is. 

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45 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

It depends.  If they're winning and Pegs is compensating them both, there's no reason to leave. 

It won't be money.  It will be ego

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38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It won't be money.  It will be ego

 

So you think that picking the coach will be what would make him leave?

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My impression of this draft, is generally 'solid' - in more ways than one. ;)

 

From looking around at a few 'big boards', I thought that we might struggle to find an obvious 'upgrade' at the #30. seemed like there was going to be a bunch of O-Line guys available around there, and while the line isn't perfect, we don't have immediate needs there.

 

The one guy who did intrigue me as a possible pick there, was Rousseau, as I could see where due to not playing last year, he might be available. I thought he was the only DE who could be there at the pick, out of the few that I had seen small write ups on.

 

I think the Bills lucked out a bit there. I also believe he was probably a guy they were thinking of when Beane referenced getting guys who they can develop.

 

I think they got lucky again with the Boogie pick, with value aligning with need nicely there.

 

Between those two, Epenesa, and also the kid we signed as a FA, I do feel we have made an improvement to our pass rush. Maybe not by a huge amount immediately, but I think going forward, we could well have a lot more success in getting to passers.

 

Rousseau's athleticism and sheer length, could quickly become an asset in the disruption of the more mobile QBs, who might well find they have to move further to get out of range of those big mitts.

 

This was a pretty good draft class of O-Line men supposedly, so it shouldn't be a surprise we got some. What was a surprise was how big and athletic they were. Lots of potential there, down the road. It certainly feels good to think that while we already have two good tackles in place and locked up for a few years, we hopefully will have guys primed to either come in, or replace them, as and when.

 

A couple of DBs, a speedy WR who is expected to get return duties, and that was a wrap.

 

I trust McDermott and DB evaluation. He seems to have a knack of finding traits in lower round guys, or udfa's, that he can develop.

 

Tbh, I really didn't know what to expect from this draft. I wouldn't have been unhappy if they had found another CB @ the #30. With Tre inked, if you want to take another CB high, then around now is the time to do it. I don't think you ever pay two CBs the big bucks though.

 

I would not have had a problem with either Harris or Etienne being added, if they had fallen. Harris is an every down back, and Etienne does have the speed to take it to the house. Thing is, in signing Brieda, Beane kept his options open, and was once again, able to 'go with the flow'.

 

I think it's easy to be critical about how much we might have improved with this draft, and if I'm totally honest, I don't think it is by loads immediately. I do think what they've done, is good for the future sustained success we all want to see.

 

At the end of the day, we need to remember, that the Bills at the moment, are a very good football team, and from that starting point, it isn't so easy to make big steps.

 

For those thinking that lots of other possible rivals have made big steps forward, well the short answer to that, is that they need to, to get to where the Bills are currently operating, and their jury is still very much out.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

So you think that picking the coach will be what would make him leave?

Yes, I think that would be part of it.   Maybe more of a business role, like President and GM.   I don't know, but I've just had this feeling that he's a really competitive guy and wants to be the top dog.   The vision in Buffalo is that there is a team of four people in charge - the Pegs, Beane and McD.  Maybe he will be happy for the long term being part of a winning team.  I just have had the sense that he will want more.

 

McD, on the other hand, is totally a team guy and I have trouble seeing him taking the same approach.   However, we've seen plenty of occasions where coaches have come to disagree with the GM about personnel selections, and I could imagine that happening with McD and Beane.  

 

On the other hand, in his presser Sunday, Beane said something like "you'll see the Bills go after big guys in the trenches as long as Sean and I are here," so what do I know?

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2 hours ago, Arm of Harm said:


Polian didn’t draft Jim Kelly but he did draft Bruce Smith. Polian officially became GM in 1986 (a year after Smith was drafted), but he was in charge of the 1985 draft even though he didn’t have the official GM title. 


Wrong. He was director of pro personnel. 

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I give them a B, but only because of Wildgoose. 
 

I love the Brown pick, but didn’t see the need to grab Doyle. Yeah, I get that Doyle was high on their board. 
 

Loved that we grabbed two DE’s however. Think that was a smart move with Addison and Hughes age. We need to get after the QB and believe both of these young studs will help us there!
 

Hopefully, AJ turns it up a large notch as well. 

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This draft won't be Brandon Beane's best draft work he will ever do. It was ok.

 

I think this was one of the weaker overall drafts in the last couple years. Lots of good players but no generational talent like those early 90s drafts where you had zero hall of famers out of them. 

 

 

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According to this analysis Bills are 5th on ROI%. (Athletic- sub required)

 

 

Quote

we calculated the expected value each team earned on the pick and subtracted the capital of the pick, using an equation that weighs the value of the team’s selections (capital) against the draftees’ rankings in the Consensus Big Board (value). We also take into account positional needs — if a team, for example, drafts a good running back because he’s the highest-ranked player on the board but then never plays that running back because there are five better ones on the roster, that wasn’t a good pick. 

 

Here's the top 7 from the chart, doesn't paste the format well though.

 

 

 

2021 Consensus Big Board Draft Rankings

RANK

  

TEAM

  

CAPITAL

  

VALUE

  

NET

  

ROI

  

1

Chicago Bears

4081.4

8126.1

4044.6

199.1%

2

Kansas City Chiefs

3106.7

5293.2

2186.5

170.4%

3

Denver Broncos

5777

9798.2

4021.2

169.6%

4

Cleveland Browns

5014.6

8490

3475.4

169.3%

5

Buffalo Bills

4083.3

6850.7

2767.4

167.8%

6

Detroit Lions

5764

9162.5

3398.6

159.0%

7

Philadelphia Eagles

5656.9

8944.7

3287.8

158.1%

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Solid A grade.  Great draft building on what we already have with some hard-nose, tough, high character players. Love this draft! 

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4 hours ago, One Buffalo said:

According to this analysis Bills are 5th on ROI%. (Athletic- sub required)

 

 

 

Here's the top 7 from the chart, doesn't paste the format well though.

 

 

 

2021 Consensus Big Board Draft Rankings

RANK

  

TEAM

  

CAPITAL

  

VALUE

  

NET

  

ROI

  

1

Chicago Bears

4081.4

8126.1

4044.6

199.1%

2

Kansas City Chiefs

3106.7

5293.2

2186.5

170.4%

3

Denver Broncos

5777

9798.2

4021.2

169.6%

4

Cleveland Browns

5014.6

8490

3475.4

169.3%

5

Buffalo Bills

4083.3

6850.7

2767.4

167.8%

6

Detroit Lions

5764

9162.5

3398.6

159.0%

7

Philadelphia Eagles

5656.9

8944.7

3287.8

158.1%

Well, I always like seeing my team on the top of lists, saying they're excellent, but really?   Someone thinks they can calculate draft success like this?   I think it's comical.  So much of what goes on in football is subjective, and these people are calculating stuff to five significant digits?   I don't think so.  

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Posted (edited)

The immediate difference in DL pass rush may have to come from growth in Oliver, Epenesa and having Star back.  Perhaps Obada, if he makes the team.  
 

That being said, if Rousseau and Basham can be reliable rotation pieces by the time we hit the playoffs, we may have ourselves a 🔥 pass rush when it matters.  
 

Of course it would be great to have them come on sooner,  but the potential of this DL certainly has taken a massive jump after this weekend. 
 

Edited by SCBills
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9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I always like seeing my team on the top of lists, saying they're excellent, but really?   Someone thinks they can calculate draft success like this?   I think it's comical.  So much of what goes on in football is subjective, and these people are calculating stuff to five significant digits?   I don't think so.  

 

To be honest I agree.  But the "Consensus Big Board" is being referenced on Twitter by many as one of their favorite/most reliable post draft analysis tools.  So I find it interesting.  It apparently compiles the data from 70 "big boards" in the media from "draft experts" to reach conclusions. As you said, so much of this is subjective, I agree.  But it is interesting to me to see a tool like this that attempts to aggregate a wide range of data.  And it is always nice to see the Bills at the top of lists as a bonus.  

 

 

 

 

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I’m curious as to why people think it takes so long for a kid to learn how to rush the passer. It’s seem like it’s a one on one skill for an edge rusher against a Tackle on most plays. Now I realize that NFL Tackles are better than college players but it sure seems like something you can practice at in a month of camp and preseason. Speed, technique and length are the keys...no?

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C+

Teams are getting the ball out faster and faster.

Getting Ends who can rush the passer, yes you need, but when teams are getting the ball out in 2 seconds it wont matter much.

 

 

I'm not building my team from the trenches out.

I'm building from the back end in. 

 

Need cover corners and Linebackers. 

 

I guess we will see how it plays out, not a fan of going DE/DE/DE with your 3 top picks the last 2 years. 

 

 

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19 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

 What’s higher up than a GM anyway?

 

In the Bills structure? The Head Coach.

 

I agree it is kind of moot because they are completely aligned on the direction, have a great relationship and genuinely seem to enjoy working together. The Pegulas get out of the way and leave them to it, as well they should! But Sean McDermott is where the power is invested in this organisation. Brandon was his hand picked General Manager and if for any reason they were to suddenly fall out I believe Sean has the power to ask the Pegulas for a new GM. I don't believe Brandon has the power to ask them for a new Head Coach. 

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1 hour ago, One Buffalo said:

 

To be honest I agree.  But the "Consensus Big Board" is being referenced on Twitter by many as one of their favorite/most reliable post draft analysis tools.  So I find it interesting.  It apparently compiles the data from 70 "big boards" in the media from "draft experts" to reach conclusions. As you said, so much of this is subjective, I agree.  But it is interesting to me to see a tool like this that attempts to aggregate a wide range of data.  And it is always nice to see the Bills at the top of lists as a bonus.  

 

 

 

 

Please don't take the following comments as arguing.  I'm not arguing about it - just talking and making some observations.

 

First, I agree, it's fun and interesting to look at all kinds of rankings.   They're great when they conclude something like Feliciano is the second best pass protecting guard in the league, and they're terrible when they say the Bills had the second worst tackling linebackers in the league, or whatever.  

 

Second, I've always distrusted the talking-head outsiders when they rank anything.  The weekly power ratings are really stupid, in my opinion.  (I still look at them.)   And that goes for especially amateurs who make themselves into professionals, from Mel Kiper on down.  Self-appointed experts.   My distrust was confirmed a few years ago when Kyle Williams was being interviewed and he was told something like he had a 68% efficiency rating on running plays (I just made that up).  Williams asked where that number came from and was told it came PFF or someplace, and he went off.   First, he wasn't even aware of such ratings, which means that his team doesn't rely on that data at all - they generate their own data.  Second, he asked how an outsider possibly could evaluate his efficiency on any play when he doesn't know what his assignment was, how that assignment might have been adjusted in the huddle, what the defense did that might have made executing more difficult than anticipated, etc.   He literally laughed it off.  So, if the pros completely ignore that kind of analysis, why should we pay attention to it?   Still, it's fun.  

 

Third, the teams really, really don't care where their draft ranks among other teams.   All they care about is their own objectives and how well they did against those objectives.   You can tell that Beane just sloughs off questions that suggestion his team didn't get better as much as the Chiefs or the Browns.   He may or may not believe that, but he just doesn't care.  All that matters to him is making his team as good as he can make it.  The Jets made themselves a whole lot better than the Bills did, because they didn't have a quarterback and now they do.   I know, this list actually takes that into account in some way, but so what?

 

Now, it's interesting that this approaches averages a lot of publicly available big boards.  The philosophy is consistent with something I read recently.  Apparently, if you fill a 5 gallon glass jug with gumballs and ask people to guess how many gumballs there are, you get guesses all over the place, some of which are wrong, sometimes by factors of 2, 3, 4.  But if you have 10,000 people guess and you average all their guesses, the average consistently comes out close to the actual number of gumballs.   So, it's possible that that phenomenon is at work here, and even though I think all these amateurs are idiots, maybe the average of all the idiots is actually meaningful.  

 

Now, if you gave me the average of the big boards of the 32 teams, I'd think you'd have a pretty good starting point.  It actually would be kind of cool if the teams all agreed to show their big boards to some trusted third person, like some bigtime accounting firm.  Strictly confidentially, so no one would ever see and be able to identify lists to teams, and let the firm do some number crunching and release the results.   That would be interesting.   For example:

 

Take Rousseau.  It's possible he was #30 on the Bills' board and 29 teams took the guys the Bills had at 1-29.   That's extremely unlikely.   It's much more likely that he was #20 or #25 and some other teams took guys who were over #30.   

 

I don't know exactly how the boards are put together, but obviously the Bills weren't taking a QB with their first pick, so there's five guys who totally objectively may have been a better value than Rousseau but whom the Bills weren't going to take.  If you could analyze those kinds of situations for all of the teams and do some averaging, you could figure out, at least based on the collective judgment of 32 GMs, which team got the best talent in the draft.  I just don't have a lot of confidence in the collective judgment of 70 Mel Kipers - unless the gumball example is actually true

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