Playoff Matchup Probability

[Bferra13]

12 minutes ago, Steptide said:

My brain can't handle anymore "scenarios" today. Just go out and win buffalo and let it take care of itself 

Exactly, just win tomorrow and go from there.

[JoshAllin]

 

Looks like ravens are guaranteed a 5th or 6th spot with a win, so bills want that 2 spot as well

Edited December 28, 2020 by motorj

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

This is pretty crazy.

 

Soooooo if we lose both, likely play MIA. Win both, likely play IND. Lose to NE only, likely play IND. Lose to MIA only, likely play CLE. It appears that losing both might give us best matchup! In that scenario, 6-BAL probably beats 3-TEN, meaning we play PIT in Divisional just the same as other scenarios except game is in PIT.

 

Of course, I want to win both. It's just crazy that losing both COULD be more favorable.

[Royale with Cheese]

Why are people saying the Steelers will probably rest their starters?  They are still playing for the #2 seed.

[Process]

14 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Why are people saying the Steelers will probably rest their starters?  They are still playing for the #2 seed.

Because the 2 seed doesn't matter. TBD is obsessed with it, and can't grasp the idea, but it does not matter. At least as far as being worth risking the health of your starters. Bills will do the same if they win tomorrow. 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Process

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, Process said:

Because the 2 seed doesn't matter. TBD is obsessed with it, but it does not matter. At least as far as being worth risking the health of your starters. Bills will do the same if they win tomorrow. 

 

 

 

 

The #2 seed means two home playoff games I believe....have to win of course.  There is some matter.

[LeGOATski]

11 minutes ago, Process said:

 

 

Why? Because its looking more likely that they'll rest starters? 

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

The #2 seed means two home playoff games I believe....have to win of course.  There is some matter.

And playing a lower seeded/theoretically worse team

[Process]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

Why? Because its looking more likely that they'll rest starters? 

Yes. Obviously if starters are playing the line is not -1.5.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

11 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Good news... so no way we play Baltimore.

There is still a way: Bills beat NE, lose to MIA, and PIT beats CLE

 

18 minutes ago, Process said:

Because the 2 seed doesn't matter. TBD is obsessed with it, and can't grasp the idea, but it does not matter. At least as far as being worth risking the health of your starters. Bills will do the same if they win tomorrow. 

 

What are you smoking? Get #2 and you have 0% chance of playing Baltimore, and you're hosting the Steelers in the Divisional instead of going on the road.

 

Sorry @Royale with Cheese, accidentally quoted you

Edited December 28, 2020 by Giuseppe Tognarelli

[bills6969]

It’s crazy how we could potentially have an 11-5 team miss the playoffs.  When was the last time that has happened.  Meanwhile,  we could have a 6-10 team make playoffs (NFC East champ).

 

 

regardless of who we play in first round,  it will be a tough game.  I would prefer that we don’t play Miami because divisional games are always tough in playoffs.

Edited December 28, 2020 by bills6969

[Process]

19 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

There is still a way: Bills beat NE, lose to MIA, and PIT beats CLE

 

What are you smoking? Get #2 and you have 0% chance of playing Baltimore, and you're hosting the Steelers in the Divisional instead of going on the road.

 

Sorry @Royale with Cheese, accidentally quoted you

🤦‍♂️

[Penfield45]

33 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Good news... so no way we play Baltimore.

not true at all 

 

if we split the next two games and Pittsburg wins we play the ravens 

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

47 minutes ago, Process said:

Because the 2 seed doesn't matter. TBD is obsessed with it, and can't grasp the idea, but it does not matter. At least as far as being worth risking the health of your starters. Bills will do the same if they win tomorrow. 

 

I am curious why you say that. The Pittsburgh newspapers are making the same point, suggesting that the Steelers will rest their starters next week.

 

i would think with re-seeding, the 2 seed guarantees not seeing the chiefs until the AFC championship. That would seem like one reason to play for the 2 seed. 

[Rubes]

29 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

It’s crazy how we could potentially have an 11-5 team miss the playoffs.  When was the last time that has happened. 

I seem to recall the last time the Pats**** were without Brady, they went 11-5 and missed the playoffs.

 

[syhuang]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i would think with re-seeding, the 2 seed guarantees not seeing the chiefs until the AFC championship. That would seem like one reason to play for the 2 seed. 

 
Doesn’t 3 seed also guarantee not seeing Chiefs until AFC championship game?

[Rubes]

2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i would think with re-seeding, the 2 seed guarantees not seeing the chiefs until the AFC championship. That would seem like one reason to play for the 2 seed. 

The other benefit is, if someone happens to knock off the Chiefs, we would have home field throughout.

 

[Big Blitz]

The Browns loss changes everything.

 

If we win out we're the 2 seed. 

 

The Colts will beat the Jags.  Tennessee will beat Houston.  Baltimore is going to win.  

 

So the big game is Cleveland at Pittsburgh.  

 

If Pittsburgh wins and those games go as predicted:

 

1. Chiefs 

2. Bills 

3. Steelers 

4. Titans 

5. Ravens 

6. Dolphins 

7. Colts 

 

 

If the Browns win the Colts are out and the Wild Cards would be:

 

EDIT:  Dolphins would be out if we beat them, forgot that.  

 

5. Ravens 

6. Browns 

7. Colts

Edited December 28, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Process]

4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am curious why you say that. The Pittsburgh newspapers are making the same point, suggesting that the Steelers will rest their starters next week.

 

i would think with re-seeding, the 2 seed guarantees not seeing the chiefs until the AFC championship. That would seem like one reason to play for the 2 seed. 

The 3 seed is also guaranteed not to see the chiefs until the afccg. That's why locking up at least the 3 seed is important. 2 seed is not (this year because no home field advantage). Both bills and steelers are locked into 2 or  3 seeds assuming we win tomorrow. 

1 minute ago, syhuang said:

 
Doesn’t 3 seed also guarantee not seeing Chiefs until AFC championship game?

Yes

Edited December 28, 2020 by Process

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

6 minutes ago, Process said:

The 3 seed is also guaranteed not to see the chiefs until the afccg. That's why locking up at least the 3 seed is important. 2 seed is not (this year because no home field advantage). Both bills and steelers are locked into 2 or  3 seeds assuming we win tomorrow. 

Yes

Doh! You’re right!  

 

Interesting. Given no fans, it seems like possible home field in the AFC championship probably is largely worthless.

[Do The Reich Thing]

21 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

The Browns loss changes everything.

 

If we win out we're the 2 seed. 

 

The Colts will beat the Jags.  Tennessee will beat Houston.  Baltimore is going to win.  

 

So the big game is Cleveland at Pittsburgh.  

 

If Pittsburgh wins and those games go as predicted:

 

1. Chiefs 

2. Bills 

3. Steelers 

4. Titans 

5. Ravens 

6. Dolphins 

7. Colts 

 

If the Browns win the Colts are out and the Wild Cards would be:

 

5. Ravens 

6. Browns 

7. Dolphins 

This is wrong. If we win out and scenario two happens the Dolphins are out.