Captain Caveman Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Ok, with all of the past discussion about win% against playoff teams, I think it's worth a fresh look at this season now that we're more than halfway through, looking at the teams we've played and their chances to make the playoffs (according to ESPN this morning.) W Jets - I'm not gonna look it up, for teams who are out of it let's say 0% W Dolphins - 50% chance to make the playoffs, right now they would be the last wild card team in Rams - 67.2% chance to make the playoffs, currently 7th seed Raiders - 59.6% chance to make the playoffs, currently the 6 seed Titans - 85.5% chance to make the playoffs, currently the 4 seed Chiefs - 99.9% chance to make the playoffs, currently the 2 seed Jets - 0% Patriots - 0% Seahawks - 93.6%, currently the 2 seed So that's 4-2 against playoff teams this year. Let's also recognize that 6 of our 9 games have come against playoff caliber teams, and this team hasn't wilted. I'm excited about the rest of this season, and hope we're still building steam and will peak at the right time. 7 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Seattle's defense is very bad, and was also very banged up in the back end , so Bills took advantage of that. Josh and the offense still needed to do it, and they did. All of this really boosts the the thought that every week is a new week, teams go from healthy to banged up and back, and that game predictions are fairly useless because past roster performance is a lousy predictor of future roster performance as the roster actually on the field can change drastically from month to month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 WRONG,The Jets could sneak in there... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Yeah but what about point differential. Obviously Miami is going to take the division because of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said: Seattle's defense is very bad, and was also very banged up in the back end , so Bills took advantage of that. Josh and the offense still needed to do it, and they did. All of this really boosts the the thought that every week is a new week, teams go from healthy to banged up and back, and that game predictions are fairly useless because past roster performance is a lousy predictor of future roster performance as the roster actually on the field can change drastically from month to month. Likewise we were missing a lot of key players in the Chiefs and Titans game (not to mention the weird circumstances around the Tennessee game and how that might have impacted things.) Anyway, I think earlier in the year it seemed like the first half of our schedule would be the easier portion and the second half would be really difficult, but looking at it with fresh eyes this week I think the degree of difficulty is pretty similar for both halves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Undefeated on Sundays. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said: Likewise we were missing a lot of key players in the Chiefs and Titans game (not to mention the weird circumstances around the Tennessee game and how that might have impacted things.) Anyway, I think earlier in the year it seemed like the first half of our schedule would be the easier portion and the second half would be really difficult, but looking at it with fresh eyes this week I think the degree of difficulty is pretty similar for both halves. Yep. And if we have a pile of guys go down with Covid or other injuries, the degree of difficulty of our remaining schedule just went up.... potentially by a lot.. We'll see how we do against a much better Az. defense this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUBSTER Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, HOUSE said: WRONG,The Jets could sneak in there... Just switch them over to the NFC East... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Very impressive. I had the Raiders and Seahawks games down as losses when the schedule was announced last spring... those were nice surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said: Yep. And if we have a pile of guys go down with Covid or other injuries, the degree of difficulty of our remaining schedule just went up.... potentially by a lot.. We'll see how we do against a much better Az. defense this week. Arizona's defense is better than Seattle (pretty much all of them are) but on the whole they haven't been great this year. After giving up 34 to Miami last week I like our odds to put up 35+ this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Jauronimo said: Undefeated on Sundays. That’s actually interesting. Let’s fly under the radar and keep winning in our typical early game time slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hebert19 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said: Arizona's defense is better than Seattle (pretty much all of them are) but on the whole they haven't been great this year. After giving up 34 to Miami last week I like our odds to put up 35+ this week. Key here is we won't have to deal with the elements so I expect the offense to have another big day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Having said that....it looks like we only have TWO games left that are 1:00 kick off times on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorkScrewHill Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Captain Caveman said: Likewise we were missing a lot of key players in the Chiefs and Titans game (not to mention the weird circumstances around the Tennessee game and how that might have impacted things.) Anyway, I think earlier in the year it seemed like the first half of our schedule would be the easier portion and the second half would be really difficult, but looking at it with fresh eyes this week I think the degree of difficulty is pretty similar for both halves. Actually .. following the OP post .. 6 of the 9 first games were against currently positioned playoff teams. Only 3 of the 7 remaining games are against playoff contenders (Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Miami). That lends itself to a strong finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corta765 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 6 hours ago, ProcessTruster said: Seattle's defense is very bad, and was also very banged up in the back end , so Bills took advantage of that. Josh and the offense still needed to do it, and they did. All of this really boosts the the thought that every week is a new week, teams go from healthy to banged up and back, and that game predictions are fairly useless because past roster performance is a lousy predictor of future roster performance as the roster actually on the field can change drastically from month to month. Bingo truest words ever. I have also been trying to tell people that Josh has been good to great since Jets game on. Just because he didn't throw for a billion TDs didn't mean his play wasn't a huge cause for the Bills success. He would have two more TD passing to Gabriel Davis if Davis didn't drop one and have a penalty called on the other. The Bills are winning because of Josh at this point not in spite which is a huge stride. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Looking at the remaining games, I only see two games that will be real tests for us down the stretch. This week's game vs. the Cardinals could be a tough one but it's hard to tell what Cardinal's team will show up. They've lost to Detroit, Carolina and Miami this year and won a squeaker at home against Seattle. I like our odds now that it appears Josh's shoulder is finally healthy. Pittsburgh is the one expected loss I see left on our schedule. Miami could be tough by Week 17 but we're at home. We'll see how Mr. Hawaii plays in the snow in December. Bills finish 13-3! (fingers crossed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 6 hours ago, HOUSE said: WRONG,The Jets could sneak in there... Yes, Adam Gase has a seat at the table for anyone who wants to jump on the Jets bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 5 hours ago, RiotAct said: Very impressive. I had the Raiders and Seahawks games down as losses when the schedule was announced last spring... those were nice surprises. we caught both of the them very shorthanded in the middle of big injury hits; that stuff usually evens out over a full season.... we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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