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glazeduck

Healthy Skepticism for This Year's Draft Class...

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Fromm's going to make the roster, he's too good of a developmental QB with a chance to be "the guy" should Allen falter for him not too.

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1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

I don't know

Time will tell

 

The cliff notes version...

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53 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I read your

post.  Now I’m responding. 
🚽

 

moss will be a beast.  Don’t worry.  You state “But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums”. 
In other words, you have no idea wth you’re talking about.  You saw in a scouting report someone say that he’s slow.....after hurting his hamstring and still running faster than Singletary.  
 

Hodgins is a 6th rd pick.  Considering he’s a 6th rd pick, I think he has considerable upside for where he was picked.  Josh allen rifles the ball.  Many WRs have problems catching his passes from what I’ve seen.  Hodgins might have the best hands in the draft.  He’s tall. He is a great red zone target, especially vs certain matchups.  Again.....he’s a 6th rd pick.

 

jackson is likely a nickel back for us. And he’s a solid tackles. Taron johnson is the only corner considered and “inside corner”.  Taron johnson is always banged up. Jackson is a perfect candidate for the PS and to bring up if Jonson gets hurt.  This is FAR from a terrible pick......and it’s the 7th round!!  You really know nothing about him, but give him a D+......

 

......and you give the kicker, ranked by most as the best kicker in the draft, an incomplete, because you know nothing about him.....EXCEPT THAT HE’S THE NUMBER ONE KICKER IN THE DRAFT.  Wow.

 

Fromm-  you don’t like him.  Not sure what you don’t like about him, because you didn’t say anything about him.  Because you don’t know anything about him. You read he has a weak arm.  Cool.
 

Doesn’t seem like you know much about any of these guys tbh

You're making a lot of incorrect assumptions here...

 

I've seen Moss play in person 3x, I'm basing my opinion on him on a lot more than just his 40 time. 

I gave the K a "pass" (as in pass/no pass), how else would you recommend I grade a Kicker taken in the 6th rd?

Feel like I said a lot of the same things you said about Hodgins. Great hands are great, but if you can't get open in the NFL, you're not going to get thrown to. Hodgins is going to have trouble separating in the NFL, but he's big and has good hands, cool.

I've seen Fromm play several times as well. Not sure how you can just assume I don't know anything about him because I didn't write anything about him. I didn't write anything about him because I don't feel like there's much to say. Weak armed QBs don't succeed ANYWHERE in the NFL, let alone a place where the wind blows like Buffalo. That's going to be an issue.

 

But apparently you felt like everyone of our picks were going to make the HOF... 

23 minutes ago, familykwi said:

The one thing that I find curious is the organization's stated need to acquire touchdown makers, yet the characteristic that all of these picks share is average to below athleticism.  I'm all for have a tough and smart team, but if we are going to become a more potent offense, or a defense that makes bigger plays, we need guys that stress the opponent.

 

It's not that I don't like the values we found, but I am a little concerned.

 

Just putting it out there.

This was part of what I was trying to get at. It feels like this draft was "safe" in a lot of respects, as opposed to pushing for new/different elements to the team.

 

Moss could certainly help on the goal line, as could Hodgins, potentially, but this is now 2 drafts in a row we've opted for tougher, older-school football players, rather than more dynamic athletes... Which, in today's NFL, is definitely an interesting decision...

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1 minute ago, glazeduck said:

You're making a lot of incorrect assumptions here...

 

I've seen Moss play in person 3x, I'm basing my opinion on him on a lot more than just his 40 time. 

I gave the K a "pass" (as in pass/no pass), how else would you recommend I grade a Kicker taken in the 6th rd?

Feel like I said a lot of the same things you said about Hodgins. Great hands are great, but if you can't get open in the NFL, you're not going to get thrown to. Hodgins is going to have trouble separating in the NFL, but he's big and has good hands, cool.

I've seen Fromm play several times as well. Not sure how you can just assume I don't know anything about him because I didn't write anything about him. I didn't write anything about him because I don't feel like there's much to say. Weak armed QBs don't succeed ANYWHERE in the NFL, let alone a place where the wind blows like Buffalo. That's going to be an issue.

 

But apparently you felt like everyone of our picks were going to make the HOF... 

why would we assume Hodgins with have problems separating in the NFL. His 20 td split time (which equates to quickness from a standing position) was best of any WR at the combine. Please elaborate?

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Just now, Turbo44 said:

why would we assume Hodgins with have problems separating in the NFL. His 20 td split time (which equates to quickness from a standing position) was best of any WR at the combine. Please elaborate?

Separation is about a lot more than just explosion, it's ankle and hip agility, it's setting up CBs, it's knowing how to run routes against man v zone, hand placement/fighting, etc. This is why most GMs don't take too much away from the combine, literally no one in the NFL has ever run a straight line in shorts, unguarded in a game.

 

Hodgins had a hard time creating separation against a lot of middling-to-bad DBs in the P12. He's going to have his work cut out for him against NFL CBs. 

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Here’s the simplicity of this draft. 
We got Diggs and moss who can contribute immediately and fill the two positions we had to have. 
This is the first draft in how long that we did not HAVE to depend on the rookie class to produce out of the gate?? Every year we need a rookie starter to come in and play above his experience level because we just don’t have the roster or depth. We don’t need that this year. We don’t need to  judge the class quickly because in all honesty we don’t need any of those guys to produce year one (barring injuries) 

This is the first class in as long as I can remember that we actually don’t need to produce in year one. Moss and Diggs are the only two that should really be involved that much to really make a difference. Espenesa will be in rotation and hopefully have some production. Everyone else is kinda long term progression. Rather any of us like the picks or not it’s going to be hard to see these guys play (barring injuries) 

We drafted pretty smart on the long term effect of things and now have replacements for some aging vets. If the rookie class works out it will be really easy to move on from the likes of jerry Hughes and John brown and Barkley etc etc in the future. We don’t need most of these kids this year, just need them to digest their playbooks and get used to the life as a professional and be ready when it’s their time to shine. Talk about a no pressure situation. 

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While a RB is a lot more than the sum of their measureables, guess who the mystery player (former Bill) is versus Moss...

 

                               Mystery Player                          Zach Moss               

 

40 Yard Dash:                4.47           seconds              4.52
20 Yard Split:                 2.59           seconds              2.63
10 Yard Split:                 1.61           seconds              1.60
Bench Press:                 13 reps       (225 lb)                19 reps

Vertical Leap:                33.0              inches               33.0

Broad Jump:               114.0              inches                N/A

20 Yd Shuttle:               4.21             seconds             4.37

 

Height:                           69.9               inches               70.0

Weight:                           198              pounds                222

Hand Size:                     8.75              inches                9.25

BMI:                              29.18                                       32.62

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For the record, I'm super hopeful all of these guys pan out. Just seeing a lot of posts about how great we did and thought I'd share my perspective. Would love nothing more than to be dead wrong on the ones I'm less than excited about.

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4 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Separation is about a lot more than just explosion, it's ankle and hip agility, it's setting up CBs, it's knowing how to run routes against man v zone, hand placement/fighting, etc. This is why most GMs don't take too much away from the combine, literally no one in the NFL has ever run a straight line in shorts, unguarded in a game.

 

Hodgins had a hard time creating separation against a lot of middling-to-bad DBs in the P12. He's going to have his work cut out for him against NFL CBs. 

Fair enough though 86 catches 1179 yards, 13 yds is impressive, P13 or not.

 

 When discussing him, Beane said hodgins studies Diggs for his route running and he was the best of any wr he saw in college in 2019 at selling the double move.

 

granted , he lasted until late in the 6th so he’s going to be flawed

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

While a RB is a lot more than the sum of their measureables, guess who the mystery player (former Bill) is versus Moss...

 

                               Mystery Player                          Zach Moss               

 

40 Yard Dash:                4.47           seconds              4.52
20 Yard Split:                 2.59           seconds              2.63
10 Yard Split:                 1.61           seconds              1.60
Bench Press:                 13 reps       (225 lb)                19 reps

Vertical Leap:                33.0              inches               33.0

Broad Jump:               114.0              inches                N/A

20 Yd Shuttle:               4.21             seconds             4.37

 

Height:                           69.9               inches               70.0

Weight:                           198              pounds                222

Hand Size:                     8.75              inches                9.25

BMI:                              29.18                                       32.62

Mccoy? Lynch? Henry? 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Mccoy? Lynch? Henry? 

 

"Look it up, Thurman..."

 

Edited by Lurker

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2 hours ago, glazeduck said:

A couple quick caveats to this post that hopefully provide enough context to make this a substantive conversation and not come across as simply complaining...

 

1. I'm very much in the camp of trusting Beane and McD, it's been clear to me (up to this point, anyway) that there's been a solid plan in place that they are executing.

2. My draft evaluations/judgments come from 2 places: watching the film and athletic testing

 

First created topic, here goes...

 

I love that most folks -- both on this board, as well as the broader community -- are excited about our draft. That gives me a good amount of hope with this group. That said, I have my reservations...

 

1. Love that we got Diggs. I think he's going to add a great dynamic to the offense. Hard to argue that he's not every bit as impactful as any of the rookies would've been, so job well done BB! A+

 

2. Unquestionably great value with Epenesa at the end of the 2nd. He's never going to be confused with Jevon Kearse but I think he can be a dynamic DE for a very long time. Speaking from personal biases, I would've loved to move ahead of Pittsburgh for Claypool, I loved him as a prospect and I think he would've added a dynamic that this offense is still lacking. That said, letting Epenesa fall into our laps was still a great, value-laden move -- 2/2 -- solid A

 

3. Here's where my skepticism really kicks in.  I love the way that Zach Moss runs, if the Terminator was a RB, I imagine they'd have very comparable styles. But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums. Only time will tell, but it's a concern (that builds into a larger concern, as mentioned be low)... They liked him, obviously, wanting to move up to get him, so I'll gladly be wrong here, but am nervous... Working on the theme above, would've loved to have been able to swoop in and take Mims before the Jets could've. Another big, athletic playmaker who opens up other avenues for the offense or Bryan Edwards.  Incomplete

 

4. LOVE that we went for a WR with some size here, and I love reading about Davis' work ethic, so again, I'm cautiously optimistic that this one will pan out. But he's not overly athletic, he's not explosive, he doesn't run great routes, he's never going to be possibly more than a very slight a mismatch in terms of size/speed/strength... I don't know where he wins. I heard the comment about him winning on double moves, which is interesting, but I'm not convinced that's something that can actively play into an overall strategy. Gandy Golden, either Johnson, DPJ and Coulter all felt like better bets to be impact players. Time will tell, and again, hoping for the best, but I'm afraid Davis is destined to be a career 4th or 5th wr (which, to be fair, is probably what should be expected out of a guy at the end of the 4th...). C

 

5. Not convinced Jake Fromm even makes the roster. Sure he's a great leader, sure he knows football, cool. Unless we're drafting him to groom him as our next QB coach, this felt like a wasted pick to me, especially with the veterans available in FA. D-

 

6a. K is a need, we filled it, cool. I know nothing about the kid but like that most had him as their #1 ranked K and he has a big leg. Pass

 

6b. Really torn here -- I'm married to and Oregon State Beaver so have seen this kid dominate for the past 3 years. My Ducks recruited him but decided not to take him and almost instantly regretted it. If there's going to be a poster boy for ones that can succeed despite not clearing those athletic thresholds, it's going to be Hodgins. Unlike Davis, I love Hodgins' length, body control and catch radius. You can at least see how he can be a box-out type guy like Arcega-Whiteside last year. That said, this kid is REALLY going to struggle gaining separation at the NFL level. He actually tested out better than I expected, but that's a glaring weakness in his game. I think he'll provide some interesting to the end of our roster WRs, but probably not ever be more than a 5th or 6th WR/RZ specialist. Wouldn't have taken much to move up for DPJ, who at least has a chance to turn into something... C+

 

7. It's hard and unfair to really say that a 7th rd pick is ever wasted, but I don't feel like this kid has a chance to make the roster. Frankly not sure what else I would've done, but it's uninspiring ot say the least... D+

 

In the end, they let things come to them, which I see as both good and bad.  It's what the Ravens do every year and they've been one of the most successful franchises for a very long time. It means they're continuing to build on a defensive-minded, control the ball, style offense. I like that they're in sync there and operating with one vision -- that's ULTRA RARE in pro sports. It also means that they didn't take any chances, and as such, didn't make any substantial gains (Diggs' acquisition, notwithstanding). Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Ravens -- arguably our biggest competition out in front both had huge drafts and a number of other teams stocked up on weapons as well. 

 

So I'm left with this weird feeling of not being unhappy but also not being super excited about this draft. Certainly part of it is that the Diggs trade went down a few weeks ago and we didn't get fanfare for it on Thursday. But another part of it is really questioning if we're being innovative and forward-looking enough, or if we're erring on the side of stubborn old-man football that is going the way of the Dodo. Is it healthy skepticism? Pessimistic optimism? Not sure, but I've definitely seen plenty of posts on here of folks whose expectations need to be seriously tempered...

Imo it sounds like you are more willing to take a risk on an athlete.  NFL football is not easier than college football.  They got very good football players.  If they had a more ideal athletic profile they wouldnt have been available at the positions they were drafted.  The Bills have a fairly complete roster.  With the lack of a #1 I feel like Beane went safe in the draft.  With covid-19 the rookies wont get the normal coaching.  Come September there isnt going to be a vast improvement.  I think Beane feels each can compete and play tomorrow in the proper role if needed.

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Posted (edited)

I don’t hate your idea of trading up to take a 2nd tier WR,  but it doesn’t seem like Beane was high on Mims. 
 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t he say he didn’t have him graded in the 2nd?

 

In regards to Hodgins, I think they view him as a “big slot”.   Less of a need for separation and more benefit to his size and hands if we have him playing inside. 
 

 

Edited by SCBills

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24 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

You're making a lot of incorrect assumptions here...

 

I've seen Moss play in person 3x, I'm basing my opinion on him on a lot more than just his 40 time. 

I gave the K a "pass" (as in pass/no pass), how else would you recommend I grade a Kicker taken in the 6th rd?

Feel like I said a lot of the same things you said about Hodgins. Great hands are great, but if you can't get open in the NFL, you're not going to get thrown to. Hodgins is going to have trouble separating in the NFL, but he's big and has good hands, cool.

I've seen Fromm play several times as well. Not sure how you can just assume I don't know anything about him because I didn't write anything about him. I didn't write anything about him because I don't feel like there's much to say. Weak armed QBs don't succeed ANYWHERE in the NFL, let alone a place where the wind blows like Buffalo. That's going to be an issue.

 

But apparently you felt like everyone of our picks were going to make the HOF... 

This was part of what I was trying to get at. It feels like this draft was "safe" in a lot of respects, as opposed to pushing for new/different elements to the team.

 

Moss could certainly help on the goal line, as could Hodgins, potentially, but this is now 2 drafts in a row we've opted for tougher, older-school football players, rather than more dynamic athletes... Which, in today's NFL, is definitely an interesting decision...

-Than I guess I don’t agree with your judgements. Moss is just fine athletically.  You will see.

 

-why is grading a K any different than grading any other position?  Doesn’t make any sense.  We got the best kicker in the draft in the 6th rd.  Isn’t that where the best kickers in the draft are usually taken?  It’s not like we took him in rd 2-4.  

 

-Hodgins- he couldn’t get separation in college, yet he still dominated.  We drafted possibly the best hands in the draft in a tall lanky frame that is a known red zone threat.... in rd 6.  And it’s a c+?  
 

fromm-  you didn’t write anything about him, but he’s a wasted pick. fromm threw 52 mph.  Herbert, who has a cannon, threw 55.  He’s a hard worker.  He’s a 5th rd qb that most people thought would be off the board when we picked.  We took a flyer on a QB in rd 5.....i don’t see the problem.  Most grades I’ve seen on fromm were extremely positive.  He’s a competitor and McBeane wants competition.  Whether it be with JA or MB, now there’s some competition.  They know he’s gonna come in and give his all.  Because that’s what he does, win QB competitions, vs QBs that are better than him.  
 

You say I make a lot of incorrect assumptions, than say that I feel that all of our picks are hall of Famers.....ironic.

 

Beane> you.  Fosho

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31 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

 You're making a lot of incorrect assumptions here...

 

I've seen Moss play in person 3x, I'm basing my opinion on him on a lot more than just his 40 time. 

I gave the K a "pass" (as in pass/no pass), how else would you recommend I grade a Kicker taken in the 6th rd?

Feel like I said a lot of the same things you said about Hodgins. Great hands are great, but if you can't get open in the NFL, you're not going to get thrown to. Hodgins is going to have trouble separating in the NFL, but he's big and has good hands, cool.

I've seen Fromm play several times as well. Not sure how you can just assume I don't know anything about him because I didn't write anything about him. I didn't write anything about him because I don't feel like there's much to say. Weak armed QBs don't succeed ANYWHERE in the NFL, let alone a place where the wind blows like Buffalo. That's going to be an issue.

 

But apparently you felt like everyone of our picks were going to make the HOF... 

This was part of what I was trying to get at. It feels like this draft was "safe" in a lot of respects, as opposed to pushing for new/different elements to the team.

 

Moss could certainly help on the goal line, as could Hodgins, potentially, but this is now 2 drafts in a row we've opted for tougher, older-school football players, rather than more dynamic athletes... Which, in today's NFL, is definitely an interesting decision...

 

Time will tell. Who are you to say? Meant in a nice way, but serious question. I’ve sat thru hundreds of games in a lot of sports. That doesn’t make ME an expert in anything I’ve seen. I just have opinions, like the rest of us. But you can say who is correct and who is not?  Here is where MY skepticism comes in.  

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31 minutes ago, Lurker said:

While a RB is a lot more than the sum of their measureables, guess who the mystery player (former Bill) is versus Moss...

 

                               Mystery Player                          Zach Moss               

 

40 Yard Dash:                4.47           seconds              4.52
20 Yard Split:                 2.59           seconds              2.63
10 Yard Split:                 1.61           seconds              1.60
Bench Press:                 13 reps       (225 lb)                19 reps

Vertical Leap:                33.0              inches               33.0

Broad Jump:               114.0              inches                N/A

20 Yd Shuttle:               4.21             seconds             4.37

 

Height:                           69.9               inches               70.0

Weight:                           198              pounds                222

Hand Size:                     8.75              inches                9.25

BMI:                              29.18                                       32.62

 

Kevin Hart? 

 

 

:)

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2 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

 

your D+ rated 7th rd pick Was the 8th rated CB in the draft and his coach said he was the best CB he has ever had. I’ll take that in the 7th

I don't know a lot about scouting prospects, but I've heard too many claims about him potentially being the "steal of the draft" to accept the terrible grade the OP gave the pick.

 

Also bad grades for players who had great college production and great observable skills, I don't get it.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, glazeduck said:

2. My draft evaluations/judgments come from 2 places: watching the film and athletic testing

 

That said, I have my reservations...

 

1. Love that we got Diggs. I think he's going to add a great dynamic to the offense ... A+

 

2. Unquestionably great value with Epenesa at the end -- solid A

 

3. Here's where my skepticism really kicks in.  I love the way that Zach Moss runs, if the Terminator was a RB, I imagine they'd have very comparable styles. But I'm a big proponent of there being minimum thresholds of athleticism that one needs to perform at their relative position, and have seen some who feel that Moss doesn't meet those minimums. Only time will tell, but it's a concern (that builds into a larger concern, as mentioned be low)... They liked him, obviously, wanting to move up to get him, so I'll gladly be wrong here, but am nervous... Working on the theme above, would've loved to have been able to swoop in and take Mims before the Jets could've. Another big, athletic playmaker who opens up other avenues for the offense or Bryan Edwards.  Incomplete

 

4. LOVE that we went for a WR with some size here, and I love reading about Davis' work ethic, so again, I'm cautiously optimistic that this one will pan out. But he's not overly athletic, he's not explosive, he doesn't run great routes, he's never going to be possibly more than a very slight a mismatch in terms of size/speed/strength... I don't know where he wins. C

 

5. Not convinced Jake Fromm even makes the roster. Sure he's a great leader, sure he knows football, cool. Unless we're drafting him to groom him as our next QB coach, this felt like a wasted pick to me, especially with the veterans available in FA. D-

 

6a. K is a need, we filled it, cool. I know nothing about the kid but like that most had him as their #1 ranked K and he has a big leg. Pass

 

6b. Really torn here -- I'm married to and Oregon State Beaver so have seen this kid dominate for the past 3 years. He actually tested out better than I expected, but that's a glaring weakness in his game. C+

 

7. It's hard and unfair to really say that a 7th rd pick is ever wasted, but I don't feel like this kid has a chance to make the roster. D+

 

In the end, they let things come to them, which I see as both good and bad.  It's what the Ravens do every year and they've been one of the most successful franchises for a very long time. It means they're continuing to build on a defensive-minded, control the ball, style offense. I like that they're in sync there and operating with one vision -- that's ULTRA RARE in pro sports. It also means that they didn't take any chances, and as such, didn't make any substantial gains (Diggs' acquisition, notwithstanding). Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Ravens -- arguably our biggest competition out in front both had huge drafts and a number of other teams stocked up on weapons as well. 

 


I’m happy to discuss pessimism, it’s how we think critically instead of being a pom pom waiver.

 

I think you have to consider how active the Bills have been in Free Agency. 
 

When you lose Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips, but then bring in Jefferson, Butler and Addison and draft Espenesa, there isn’t much value in drafting an additional lower round lineman. You have three other DEs in Murphy, Hughes and Johnson.

 

Same at Corner. Bills signed Norman and Gaines, lost Johnson. But have Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, White, and resigned Marlowe.
 

I thought the Bills draft followed a logical path outside of the fact that they didn’t draft a linebacker. 
 

Beane said Frank Gore played last year because of his physical nature. So the Bills had success drafting a 22-year old 3rd Rounder last year, so they went ahead with a proven college producer in that physical mold. Huge college production, high broken tackle rate. Instead of over paying old veterans whose best days are behind them like Ivory, Tolbert and Gore, the Bills have moved forward and learned their lesson.

 

Same thing at WR. The Bills have set up a system of competition. Diggs, Brown and Beasley are set. But the Bills are smart to not rely on Foster one game and Duke Williams in another and Isaiah McKenzie in another. They  now have Foster, Williams, Roberts, McKenzie, Davis and Hodgins competing for three spots. It will heat up Training Camp. Mims would have been redundant. 

 

One of the blind spots for McDermott and Beane has been backup QB. Peterman, McCarron, Anderson and even Barkley to a degree are poor options. So try again with an SEC QB with three years of starting experience. The Bills could have brought Winston in, but they would face the prospect of Allen facing real pressure. 
 

Again the Bills could have tried a 5th Round Guard, but how likely were they to crack the 8-man OLine.


That’s one aspect of the Draft I liked. The Bills got guys with huge college production. Both WRs improved their numbers every season, Espensa was a double digit sack guy, Moss had over 4,000 yards rushing. And in all cases they’re young, 21 or 22. Not 23, 24 with missionary visits. 
 

And kicker, well if Bass can put 50-yarders back on the map it helps this offense. But most times kickers have to get cut and bounce around some before sticking. 


I think the Bills should have worked in a linebacker. It’s one of the few positions we’re still thin.  


 

 

 

Edited by Straight Hucklebuck
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If AJ become an above average starting DE, Moss is a good RB, and one other player in the draft becomes a high end role player this team will have nailed the draft. The Bills are at a point where they are close to serious contention with a good team, they don't need to find 3-4 starters and 2-3 role players in the draft. They just need to get a couple of long term starters and one or two role players to have this draft service the needs of a hopefully contending team. 

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If you're married to someone who went to OSU I imagine you watch your fair share of pac 12. I don't know how much of Moss you got to watch but every time he touched the ball he was productive, I think his balance and instincts more than makeup for his numbers from the combine. I think Moss will be a great compliment to Motor. 

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