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John from Riverside

Diggs vs the WR field in the draft

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2 hours ago, schoolhouserock said:

With every delay to offseason training, the Diggs trade becomes more and more favorable against having drafted a rookie WR in round 1.


Hopefully we can have a season if people stop being stupid and stay home so the virus doesn’t continue to spread to other states. 

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So much depends on the QB and surrounding cast and coaching situations where these rookies end up. History is filled with great receiver prospects who never got into the right situations. 

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2 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

Lots of them?

 

Not a chance, my friend.


“Lots” wasn’t my main point. I also said “could” though. That was said to drill to my main point, which was that Diggs is what Josh Allen and the Bills needed this season and what they need is a sure thing. That’s something that no rookie can give them. 
 

 

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Posted (edited)

the only 2 in the draft who would compare with Diggs are Jeudy or Lamb. 

 

the advantage with diggs is that he is more of a sure thing - there have been several top 10 busts - john ross, mike williams, corey davis, hey even sammy watkins.

 

the disadvantage is that you don’t get the rookie pay scale with Diggs. even that disadvantage is minimized a bit since he is not paid absurdly and is under contract for 3 more years 

 

Most importantly, even if Jeudy or Lamb are ex-ante better, WE WEREN’T GETTING EITHER WITH #22 (or #18 with the other draft capital surrendered for Diggs).

Edited by IgotBILLStopay

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49 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

imagine if it were possible to have Diggs AND draft a WR.

 

wait ... it is

You bet it is and I hope they do.....but that was not the question :)

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8 hours ago, Rob's House said:

That Diggs himself wasn't taken until the 5th round illustrates the fact that we really don't know who will or won't be better than him.

 

Antonio Brown was drafted in the 6th round. Devante Adams in the 4th. Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, and Kenny Golladay went in the 3rd. Michael Tomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, and Jarvis Landry in the 2nd. Hell, Adam Thielen wasn't even drafted.

 

The point is that if it was easy to determine how good these guys would be none of them would have made it out of the first round.

 

On the other side, Tayvon Austin was a top 10 pick, and went 19 slots ahead of DeAndre Hopkins.

 

As others have said, the value in Diggs isn't that he's necessarily better than whoever we could have drafted, or even that he's better right now, but simply in the fact that you know what you're getting rather than rolling the dice for a bigger score.

 

Even a sure thing prospect isn't always a sure thing. Sometimes it's Sammy Watkins.


 

This exactly - there is no way to compare Diggs versus the field.  There may be one or two guys we had no shot at that are better, but there is a real good chance that a couple of hard working 2nd rd picks or later - land in the right spot and have better careers.  The issue is finding them and is Buffalo the right spot to develop them into that type of receiver.

 

I am very happy with taking a young known receiver at this point to allow JA to grow and progress over a WR in the draft that might work out, but might not.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Billl said:

I would guess that there will be a WR drafted at 22 or later who will be better than Diggs, but there isn’t one specific WR I would take over Diggs.

I agree that this is likely.  But there will be ? 5 WR drafted before #22 and ? 30 drafted after #22.

Not specific to WR but interesting is the following, chance of making an nfl roster:         https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#39821e577495

Quote
Round Freq. Percent Cuml
1 178 29.9 29.9
2 104 17.5 47.4
3 75 12.6 60.0
4 64 10.8 70.8
5 38 6.4 77.2
6 29 4.9 82.0
7 25 4.2 86.2
Undrafted 81 13.6 99.8
Supplemental 1 0.2 100.0
Total 595 100  
   
       

Or in terms of how many players you need to draft at lower round to match a 1st round pick

Round  1               1

2                            1.7

3                            2.4

4                            2.8

5                            4.7

6                            6.1

7                            7.1

     

Note that this is for players who just make a roster- not for starters or all pros.

 

     
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush

Depends upon exactly what you are talking about.

 

Edited by maryland-bills-fan
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As Beane said earlier this week, WR is one of the biggest "bust" positions in the NFL.  You just can't predict how well these guys will function in an NFL offense after playing in such dumbed-down college offenses.

 

I don't know (or care) which WR in the draft will be good/great.  I do know that Diggs is a proven commodity in his prime and I gladly trade our #22 pick and a couple of day 3 selections for him.

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9 hours ago, Rob's House said:

That Diggs himself wasn't taken until the 5th round illustrates the fact that we really don't know who will or won't be better than him.

 

Antonio Brown was drafted in the 6th round. Devante Adams in the 4th. Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, and Kenny Golladay went in the 3rd. Michael Tomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, and Jarvis Landry in the 2nd. Hell, Adam Thielen wasn't even drafted.

 

The point is that if it was easy to determine how good these guys would be none of them would have made it out of the first round.

 

On the other side, Tayvon Austin was a top 10 pick, and went 19 slots ahead of DeAndre Hopkins.

 

As others have said, the value in Diggs isn't that he's necessarily better than whoever we could have drafted, or even that he's better right now, but simply in the fact that you know what you're getting rather than rolling the dice for a bigger score.

 

Even a sure thing prospect isn't always a sure thing. Sometimes it's Sammy Watkins.

 

Devante Adams was a 2nd rounder. But point is taken. 

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10 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

He's a really good player but benefited from Cooks and Woods pulling a lot of the coverage.  He seldom faces the top corner from the opposition and works primarily out of the slot.  He isn't the same type of player as Diggs.  Kupp isn't a guy that can stretch the field or command double coverage.  Comparing him to Diggs is like comparing apples and oranges.  Even with all of that said, I'd be really excited if the Bills could add a player like Kupp to the roster.  He doesn't drop passes, blocks in the run game, and makes good plays with the ball in his hands.

Kupp has shown ability to make huge plays down field as well as after getting the ball. We know Woods doesn't drop balls but Kupp takes it to another level, I don't think Woods commands double teams either, I think it was more Cooks speed that gained respect. If Kupp keeps being the go to guy however, I guarantee he will start commanding double teams and he will still make the big plays, there is no stopping him. Looking forward to when we get to bring him to where he belongs!

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19 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Kupp has shown ability to make huge plays down field as well as after getting the ball. We know Woods doesn't drop balls but Kupp takes it to another level, I don't think Woods commands double teams either, I think it was more Cooks speed that gained respect. If Kupp keeps being the go to guy however, I guarantee he will start commanding double teams and he will still make the big plays, there is no stopping him. Looking forward to when we get to bring him to where he belongs!

 

Kupp isn't close to Diggs. 

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Kupp isn't close to Diggs. 

:cry: Well I hope he holds off on surpassing Diggs until he gets here

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There is plenty of potential in the draft, but nobody who is likely to be more effective in his rookie season than Diggs is right now.  And after Jeudy, Lamb, and Ruggs the risk creeps in a little more that they might never be as effective as Diggs, who is a known commodity.  Denzel Mims is an immense physical talent, for instance, but was not a sophisticated route runner at Baylor.  He might well learn, but the fact that he hasn't been carries some risk, and he certainly isn't going to run routes in his rookie season the way Diggs does now.

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14 hours ago, PIZ said:

I think lots of them could end up better than Diggs in a few years, but for the 2020 season, Diggs is what Josh Allen and the Bills needed. This is our year, and Josh Allen and the Bills needed a sure thing at WR, and Diggs gives that to them. I think that they’ll add a WR in the draft as well, to build on the WR group though. 
 

 

I don’t know if LOTS of them could end up better then DIGGS , according to many Diggs is one of if not the best rout runner in the NFL with good hands and for his size makes contested catches, IMO he’s a total package!!

If Allen shows ( this year ) that he’s our long term answer this offense could be a top 3 in the AFC !!! 

I know I’m not alone when I say this 

but not winning the AFC East this year would be a HUGE disappointment ...

GO Bills !!!!!

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14 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

I know he isn't a rookie but Kupp is the WR I really see being able to compete with and surpass Diggs

Dude you have been on this train for months.. Kupp is a very good WR(top 15) but he is not elite. Diggs is and you take him any day of the week!

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47 minutes ago, Rad Likes The Bills said:

Dude you have been on this train for months.. Kupp is a very good WR(top 15) but he is not elite. Diggs is and you take him any day of the week!

I'll always be on the Kupp train!!! Choo choo he's full steam ahead to elite town and I'm the conductor...:wub:

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Just imagine if we'd drafted Kupp instead of Zay...

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6 minutes ago, 947 said:

Just imagine if we'd drafted Kupp instead of Zay...

 

Or Godwin.  Or JuJu.  Or Golliday. 

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