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qwksilver

Edge in the upcoming draft

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We added some EDGE talent  via FA, a starter Addison and another with some flexibility (Quinton Jefferson). However the EDGE room is quite old outside of Johnson everyone is on the wrong side of 30 (Murphy is 29). I feel this is no longer the biggest need but could be in a year so, my questions to all the draftniks on this site are:

 

1) Does anyone think we take 2 in the draft? Where do you see value?

 

2) What players fit our scheme close to each draft slot we have?

 

Thanks for doing all the heavy lifting.

 

 

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Going by the thread talent you would think Edge is getting out of wrestling and making himself available for the NFL Draft.

 

Where would a tall skinny 47 year old wrestler fall into the Bills plans? 😀

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I think one for sure, depending on value, between 2-4. 

 

I think 2 would depend on how they view Daryl Johnson... If they seem him as a positive development piece, they may not see the need to take another development piece.

 

I think a trade up into the top of the second is possible as well if someone like Gross-Matos, or Baun falls. 

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I feel like 2nd round is in play depending on how the draft plays out. We also NEED RB probably more but can find RBs later. In my opinion EDGE is also more difficult to scout.

 

Edited by qwksilver
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There are a number of players who can play edge at a high level.  We only have only one RB who can play at a high level and the depth there immediately goes down several notches.  We can almost always get good veterans to play defensive end and with a heavy rotation, we can match up skills and fresh legs with the distance/down requirement. If it is 3rd and 25 we can put in a smaller DE to rush, and 3rd and goal at the 2, would be a bigger guy.   ... Teams use running plays between 33% to 55% of the time, as well as being a pass receiver.  He handles the ball the most, just behind the center and QB.  We can't ignore that.

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1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

There are a number of players who can play edge at a high level.  We only have only one RB who can play at a high level and the depth there immediately goes down several notches.  We can almost always get good veterans to play defensive end and with a heavy rotation, we can match up skills and fresh legs with the distance/down requirement. If it is 3rd and 25 we can put in a smaller DE to rush, and 3rd and goal at the 2, would be a bigger guy.   ... Teams use running plays between 33% to 55% of the time, as well as being a pass receiver.  He handles the ball the most, just behind the center and QB.  We can't ignore that.

 

 

We have our #1 RB going forward. They don't need to spend a #2 on RB.  Doesn't make much sense to pay someone more to be a backup/injury insurance. They've noticed that you can get a starter level RB later in the draft than you can most other positions. It's certainly not impossible, but not likely.

 

Also, your statement that "there are a number of players who can play edge at a high level" is questionable. People are always looking for good edge talent, as you can find plenty of replacement-level talent but not much in the way of guys who can pressure the QB. Teams are always looking and rarely finding. In the list of positions at which there are a number of guys who can play at a high level, RB is far higher than edge.

Edited by Thurman#1
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6 hours ago, qwksilver said:

I feel like 2nd round is in play depending on how the draft plays out. We also NEED RB probably more but can find RBs later. In my opinion EDGE is also more difficult to scout.

 


Edge is a good option, but so could be WR.  RB will get chosen in the later rounds.  We added quite a bit 6 of the 7 additions in FA on defense, and if they drop Murphy then maybe.  Both Edge and WR cost a lot in FA as we have seen so using you’re 2nd and 3rd on these two positions make sense.  I’m fine with adding some of those late picks to cash strapped teams to move in either of these rounds.  We can keep one of the pics for a RB like the UCLA kid, or Dillon from Boston.  With maybe 1-2 other picks you just choose the best player available and that’s that.  Well still have a little $ for some UDFA or 2 for depth to at least add to our practice squad.

 

Thats my two cents.

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23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We have our #1 RB going forward. They don't need to spend a #2 on RB.  Doesn't make much sense to pay someone more to be a backup/injury insurance. They've noticed that you can get a starter level RB later in the draft than you can most other positions. It's certainly not impossible, but not likely.

 

Also, your statement that "there are a number of players who can play edge at a high level" is questionable. People are always looking for good edge talent, as you can find plenty of replacement-level talent but not much in the way of guys who can pressure the QB. Teams are always looking and rarely finding. In the list of positions at which there are a number of guys who can play at a high level, RB is far higher than edge.

I see your point, but I do not see Beane yet picking up the backup RB, or new starter  and FA is sort-of over.   I see three to five very good RB's and we should be able to get a top 3 guy at #54.   These guys should be top 10 players at RB within 3 years or so. It just looks like the best way to improve the team the most with that pick.   We will revisit at the end of next month to see how our guesses worked out.

4 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:


Edge is a good option, but so could be WR.  RB will get chosen in the later rounds.  We added quite a bit 6 of the 7 additions in FA on defense, and if they drop Murphy then maybe.  Both Edge and WR cost a lot in FA as we have seen so using you’re 2nd and 3rd on these two positions make sense.  I’m fine with adding some of those late picks to cash strapped teams to move in either of these rounds.  We can keep one of the pics for a RB like the UCLA kid, or Dillon from Boston.  With maybe 1-2 other picks you just choose the best player available and that’s that.  Well still have a little $ for some UDFA or 2 for depth to at least add to our practice squad.

 

Thats my two cents.

Another thought... the BPA at #54 may just well be a RB and we need a top quality 2nd running back.   Walter football 3-24-20 (just for example but a typical draft guess list)  has the following number of positions drafted before our #54

WR                  9

OT                  8

DE                   7

IOL   QB          5

CB    S            4

and 

LB  DT & RB   3.

So if we go Edge, then we are getting the 8th best guy,,,,

     if we go WR we are getting the 10th best guy ...

     if we go RB we are getting the 4th best guy. 

Walter football has Swift going at #14 (Tampa).....Taylor going #18 (Miami) ...... Dobbins going #37(Detriot) .....and Akers going just behind us at #55 (Baltimore).  I think we upgrade by going with the 3rd best player at a position rather than the 10th or 8th best player.

 

Well, we will see.

 

 

Edited by maryland-bills-fan

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Unless Baun slides, there will be some potential names like Weaver or Lewis that could be enticing in the second round. However, if one of the backs like Swift, Taylor, or Dobbins are there, or if there are corners that are there I'd prefer to go that route.

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2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I see your point, but I do not see Beane yet picking up the backup RB, or new starter  and FA is sort-of over.   I see three to five very good RB's and we should be able to get a top 3 guy at #54.   These guys should be top 10 players at RB within 3 years or so. It just looks like the best way to improve the team the most with that pick.   We will revisit at the end of next month to see how our guesses worked out.

Another thought... the BPA at #54 may just well be a RB and we need a top quality 2nd running back.

 

We'll see.

 

 

 

If an RB has a significant fall and is easily the best player on the board, yeah, I'd guess they would make the pick in that case.

 

For ex, if they have JK Dobbins ranked in the 30s and he falls to #54 as talked about in the "Mock with Dobbins" thread, yeah, that would make sense.

 

Oh, but whether you're getting the eighth-best at one position or the absolute best at another has no relevance or importance. What matters is whether another guy available at the time, whatever position he plays, is likely to become a better player. There's a reason they say BPA rather than BPAATP (Best Player Available At That Position, my awkward little acronym for what you're talking about here). In fact, a GM saying he goes BPA strategy - as Beane does - is pretty much saying that BPAATP isn't a factor in how he'll choose.

 

This year is a good year for WRs and a bad year for TEs, they say. GMs, though, won't be saying, yeah, we have this TE as the 55th best player but the 3rd best TE, and this receiver as the 40th best player, but only the ninth-best WR, so let's grab the TE 'cause he's the third-best TE this year. It doesn't matter how a guy ranks in this draft at his position, except that guys at a position that's rich might fall and become the BPA.

 

RB at #54 remains unlikely IMO. As you say though, we'll see.

Edited by Thurman#1

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This can be addressed over the next several drafts and fa periods. The players we have will be fine this season and it will be difficult to roster any more without cuts, which would likely result in a loss of production vs the vet. Taking one with potential at some point in the draft makes sense, but there's no reason to force the issue. 

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Unless the Bills sign a RB, I could see them drafting a RB in round 2.  They have short term answers at DE, CB, and WR so the needs there aren't as strong but BPA could be in play especially if they sign a veteran RB.  Safety is another possibility.

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3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:


Edge is a good option, but so could be WR.  RB will get chosen in the later rounds.  We added quite a bit 6 of the 7 additions in FA on defense, and if they drop Murphy then maybe.  Both Edge and WR cost a lot in FA as we have seen so using you’re 2nd and 3rd on these two positions make sense.  I’m fine with adding some of those late picks to cash strapped teams to move in either of these rounds.  We can keep one of the pics for a RB like the UCLA kid, or Dillon from Boston.  With maybe 1-2 other picks you just choose the best player available and that’s that.  Well still have a little $ for some UDFA or 2 for depth to at least add to our practice squad.

 

Thats my two cents.

I agree. RB tends to drop in the draft. WR, OT, and DE are needs and will go quickly. I like Claypool but doubt he gets to 54. Matt Peart OT from UConn could be there at 54 but probably not at 86. Edge guys go quickly and Baun, Okwara, Gross-Matos are likely long gone before 54. Lewis from bama missed a lot of time due to injuries but has a lot of upside. Jaylon Johnson the cb from Utah could be there at 54 as he was to have shoulder surgery. Lots of options beyond RB, for sure.

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I expect one (anywhere from round 2 to round 4).  I'd be surprised by 2.

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

If an RB has a significant fall and is easily the best player on the board, yeah, I'd guess they would make the pick in that case.

 

For ex, if they have JK Dobbins ranked in the 30s and he falls to #54 as talked about in the "Mock with Dobbins" thread, yeah, that would make sense.

 

Oh, but whether you're getting the eighth-best at one position or the absolute best at another has no relevance or importance. What matters is whether another guy available at the time, whatever position he plays, is likely to become a better player. There's a reason they say BPA rather than BPAATP (Best Player Available At That Position, my awkward little acronym for what you're talking about here). In fact, a GM saying he goes BPA strategy - as Beane does - is pretty much saying that BPAATP isn't a factor in how he'll choose.

 

This year is a good year for WRs and a bad year for TEs, they say. GMs, though, won't be saying, yeah, we have this TE as the 55th best player but the 3rd best TE, and this receiver as the 40th best player, but only the ninth-best WR, so let's grab the TE 'cause he's the third-best TE this year. It doesn't matter how a guy ranks in this draft at his position, except that guys at a position that's rich might fall and become the BPA.

 

RB at #54 remains unlikely IMO. As you say though, we'll see.

Agreed. Unless one of the top 3 has a significant slide, I think RB is not in play at 54. It is easier to plug and play a later round RB than other positions. 

 

1 hour ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Gotta grab Kenny Willekes

But what round is he projected to go?

 

I've also seen Greenard from Florida mentioned as well as Anae from Utah. I just need more info on them all.

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1 hour ago, qwksilver said:

Agreed. Unless one of the top 3 has a significant slide, I think RB is not in play at 54. It is easier to plug and play a later round RB than other positions. 

 

But what round is he projected to go?

 

I've also seen Greenard from Florida mentioned as well as Anae from Utah. I just need more info on them all.

Greenard, Anae and Alton Robinson were guys mentioned meeting with Buffalo.

 

Greenard has a late rd 2 / 3 grade, Anae Rd 3 same with Robinson.

 

CB is a need as well Jaylon Johnson from Utah. Rd 2 grade

 

RBs- Dobbins, Akers and Zack Moss

 

Any of those guys seem to be rounds 2-4 Grades..... and have met with the Bills.

2 hours ago, turftoe said:

I agree. RB tends to drop in the draft. WR, OT, and DE are needs and will go quickly. I like Claypool but doubt he gets to 54. Matt Peart OT from UConn could be there at 54 but probably not at 86. Edge guys go quickly and Baun, Okwara, Gross-Matos are likely long gone before 54. Lewis from bama missed a lot of time due to injuries but has a lot of upside. Jaylon Johnson the cb from Utah could be there at 54 as he was to have shoulder surgery. Lots of options beyond RB, for sure.

One of my best friends was Jaylon Johnsons high school coach in Fresno Ca.  3x Section titles last 3 years, won 5A Ca state Championship this year.  Said Jaylon Johnson was the best and smartest football player hes ever coached. Work ethic is out the roof and is a film study non stop kid.

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The Bills have 9 defensive lineman on their roster right now.  Why sign all of them give them signing bonuses only to turn around and cut some. 

 

And I'm sure I'll get many responses back to cut Murphy but there's also other threads and articles stating he's valuable to the team, admittedly somewhat overpaid, but you're not likely to get a better return once you take the cap hit on him and sign someone else in particualr a rookie filling the shoes of  the defensive lineman who played the most snaps last season.

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I think we get a Rd. 4 edge.  I don't envision one in the 2nd.  There do not seem to be many consensus high-value Edge players in this draft.  Like WR, they also appear to take some time to develop.  

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4 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I think we get a Rd. 4 edge.  I don't envision one in the 2nd.  There do not seem to be many consensus high-value Edge players in this draft.  Like WR, they also appear to take some time to develop.  

That's my point. Everyone in the clubhouse is 30+ (minus Johnson) so we will need to add some youth some where. The questions are who and how many? Maybe draft 1 this year and 1 in the next or more FAs next year. It's not a screaming need today but will be sooner than later. 

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Khalid Kareem is my kind of guy and the kind of guy I think McDermott would target. Long arms, nice size and strength, good run defender. Still has upside.  
 

Guys like Baun to me are too small for this scheme. Short arms etc...he’s a 3-4 OLB in my opinion. 

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

If an RB has a significant fall and is easily the best player on the board, yeah, I'd guess they would make the pick in that case.

 

For ex, if they have JK Dobbins ranked in the 30s and he falls to #54 as talked about in the "Mock with Dobbins" thread, yeah, that would make sense.

 burie

Oh, but whether you're getting the eighth-best at one position or the absolute best at another has no relevance or importance. What matters is whether another guy available at the time, whatever position he plays, is likely to become a better player. There's a rea t, a GM saying he goes BPA strategy - as Beane does - is pretty much saying that BPAATP isn't a factor in how he'll choose.

 

This year is a good year for WRs and a bad year for TEs, they say. GMs, though, won't be saying, yeah, we have this TE as the 55th best player but the 3rd best TE, and this receiver as the 40th best player, but only the ninth-best WR, so let's grab the TE 'cause he's the third-best TE this year. It doesn't matter how a guy ranks in this draft at his position, except that guys at a position that's rich might fall and become the BPA.

 

RB at #54 remains unlikely IMO. As you say though, we'll see.

Well, Do you really think that there are 10 defensive ends and offensive tackles out there this year?    I can not see taking the 10th best defensive end and seeing him buried on the practice squad or being a backup to a 3 or4 man rotation at DE.  A RB can play right away and a top one might become the starter or, at least, take a third of the running play snaps.  There are about 130 plays a game- maybe 50 offensive scrimage plays a game,  maybe 20 to 25 running plays... so you might expect this guy might get 7 or 8 carries a game.  He will be the only one carrying the ball on those plays. A back up DE might get 3-4 plays a game and he is only one of 11 defenders.  Which position do you feed with your top remaining draft pick?

Edited by maryland-bills-fan

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