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qwksilver

Edge in the upcoming draft

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2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

True the question is then how do you ever get young?  They are in decent shape at tackle with Phillips and Oliver and even Jefferson is only 27.  But at end they are a little gray in the tooth.  I believe this is Murphy's last contract year so could see next year replacing him wit ha high draft pick, though good chance they won't have a low pick

That was one of my questions. I think we have to take one  this year or we will be looking at FA next year as well.

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22 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

That was one of my questions. I think we have to take one  this year or we will be looking at FA next year as well.

 

But it makes little sense to sign 3 DL payers, pay signing bonuses to then cut someone.  Currently there are 9 DL on roster, suppose you could cut Johnson, maybe get him to PS if he gets picked up by someone else so be it.

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24 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

But it makes little sense to sign 3 DL payers, pay signing bonuses to then cut someone.  Currently there are 9 DL on roster, suppose you could cut Johnson, maybe get him to PS if he gets picked up by someone else so be it.

McDermott does like to rotate them in so maybe we keep 10 or maybe Murphy gets let go or they trade someone. They definitely need to get younger and find someone for next year.

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I dont see the value there at 54.  A De selection at that point you are picking a position not the beat player.  Maybe one of the 2 Big 10 Des fall.  Yetur-Matos or Espinosa?? Most likley they are gone.  At 54 you are in a prime position for offensive skill players imo.

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16 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I dont see the value there at 54.  A De selection at that point you are picking a position not the beat player.  Maybe one of the 2 Big 10 Des fall.  Yetur-Matos or Espinosa?? Most likley they are gone.  At 54 you are in a prime position for offensive skill players imo.

Agreed more than likely DE is not a great value ar 54. CB, RB or OT works though. Although I could see Epenesa falling to the 2nd round with the poor combine. That would be interesting.

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6 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

Agreed more than likely DE is not a great value ar 54. CB, RB or OT works though. Although I could see Epenesa falling to the 2nd round with the poor combine. That would be interesting.

Ya him an Matos dont look like first rd Des to me.  Kinda like Lawson here.  You pick a guy in Rd 1 at De you expect sacks, hurries, and big plays.  Being a solid, not flashy De on day 2 makes more sense.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

You are a bit locked into your own view and haven't listened to what is going on.  First of all,   "....What matters is only how good he is compared to everybody...."  Do you really believe that there are going to be 12 top notch defensive tackles or offensive tackles in the draft this year?  I'll give you a chance to tell us all, the last time that a draft produced the top 10 DE's  AND OT 's in the league.  We will wait and evalutate that say in 2022.   The reaching is going on by the other teams, if we can trust the mock draft people. ...   This year there are 3-5 running backs who would be able to spell or replace Singletary AND there is a hole on the Bills for backup RB, AND there is not much available by trade or FA AND Beane has made no effort to fill that hole. It looks like one of those top 5 RB may be best player available and ALSO fill a need for the Bills. ..  That looks to be the plan.  

     It is bad thinking to fasten onto a mantra and demand it has to be followed regardless.  Let's say the BPA is a center or a safety. We have very good players at those positions so the rookie would be sitting on the bench for 2-3 years, learning the pro game. We might agree that would not be smart.

 

The top 3 RB are not at reach at #54 and even the top 5 are not a reach. Bean is playing his cards well. A good one will drop to us or be available with a trade up.

 

 

Dude, if you want to say I'm not listening, fine I guess, but it takes one to know one, and you're not listening either.

 

You keep focusing in on whether there are going to be 12 top notch DTs or DEs in the draft. And for what is now the third time, that is completely and entirely irrelevant. More, you may keep wanting to restrict our choices to DT, DE or RB, but that's a false choice. There are few positions they would not consider in the 2nd ... QB of course,  but that's just about it. If I was going to add another position in there as 2nd least likely to be picked in the 2nd, it would probably be RB. TE or G, maybe, as well?

 

We would have good use for CB, a DB jack of all trades like Dugger, OL, WR, TE, LB, DL.

 

What they won't do, though, is draft a position or player because of this year's needs.

 

In the end, the only thing that matters is whether a guy is BPA. If he is, then terrific, pick him. If he's not then where he ranks within his position group is only a reason to make a mistake and reach for him. That is all the relevance it has.

 

And if you want to say that BPA is a mantra ... fine, it's a mantra. But it's the mantra of Brandon Beane, among others, and the mantra as well of pretty much every single excellent GM in the league.

 

This year in RBs, the interesting thing is precisely that there are so many guys who would be good solid value in the 3rd and 4th rounds, guys like Perine, Kelley and Dillon. Good guys will likely be available even in the 5th. That's the range where an RB will be BPA a pretty fair amount of the time.

Edited by Thurman#1
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On 3/24/2020 at 3:00 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We have our #1 RB going forward. They don't need to spend a #2 on RB.  Doesn't make much sense to pay someone more to be a backup/injury insurance. They've noticed that you can get a starter level RB later in the draft than you can most other positions. It's certainly not impossible, but not likely.

 

Also, your statement that "there are a number of players who can play edge at a high level" is questionable. People are always looking for good edge talent, as you can find plenty of replacement-level talent but not much in the way of guys who can pressure the QB. Teams are always looking and rarely finding. In the list of positions at which there are a number of guys who can play at a high level, RB is far higher than edge.

Until Singletary goes out and then we’re stuck with frank gore esque production.  We should have 2 good backs.  Not saying we have to take one with our first pick, but I’d like to have 2 very good backs.  You should too.

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10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Until Singletary goes out and then we’re stuck with frank gore esque production.  We should have 2 good backs.  Not saying we have to take one with our first pick, but I’d like to have 2 very good backs.  You should too.

 

 

Two very good ones is a bit unlikely. Few teams manage "2 very good backs." But yeah, they need a second one who's good. Yeldon might be that guy, but my guess is we bring in another guy at some point, through FA or the draft.

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6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Dude, if you want to say I'm not listening, fine I guess, but it takes one to know one, and you're not listening either.

 

You keep focusing in on whether there are going to be 12 top notch DTs or DEs in the draft. And for what is now the third time, that is completely and entirely irrelevant. More, you may keep wanting to restrict our choices to DT, DE or RB, but that's a false choice. There are few positions they would not consider in the 2nd ... QB of course,  but that's just about it. If I was going to add another position in there as 2nd least likely to be picked in the 2nd, it would probably be RB. TE or G, maybe, as well?

 

We would have good use for CB, a DB jack of all trades like Dugger, OL, WR, TE, LB, DL.

 

What they won't do, though, is draft a position or player because of this year's needs.

 

In the end, the only thing that matters is whether a guy is BPA. If he is, then terrific, pick him. If he's not then where he ranks within his position group is only a reason to make a mistake and reach for him. That is all the relevance it has.

 

And if you want to say that BPA is a mantra ... fine, it's a mantra. But it's the mantra of Brandon Beane, among others, and the mantra as well of pretty much every single excellent GM in the league.

 

This year in RBs, the interesting thing is precisely that there are so many guys who would be good solid value in the 3rd and 4th rounds, guys like Perine, Kelley and Dillon. Good guys will likely be available even in the 5th. That's the range where an RB will be BPA a pretty fair amount of the time.

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Dude, if you want to say I'm not listening, fine I guess, but it takes one to know one, and you're not listening either.

 

You keep focusing in on whether there are going to be 12 top notch DTs or DEs in the draft. And for what is now the third time, that is completely and entirely irrelevant. More, you may keep wanting to restrict our choices to DT, DE or RB, but that's a false choice. There are few positions they would not consider in the 2nd ... QB of course,  but that's just about it. If I was going to add another position in there as 2nd least likely to be picked in the 2nd, it would probably be RB. TE or G, maybe, as well?

 

We would have good use for CB, a DB jack of all trades like Dugger, OL, WR, TE, LB, DL.

 

What they won't do, though, is draft a position or player because of this year's needs.

 

In the end, the only thing that matters is whether a guy is BPA. If he is, then terrific, pick him. If he's not then where he ranks within his position group is only a reason to make a mistake and reach for him. That is all the relevance it has.

 

And if you want to say that BPA is a mantra ... fine, it's a mantra. But it's the mantra of Brandon Beane, among others, and the mantra as well of pretty much every single excellent GM in the league.

 

This year in RBs, the interesting thing is precisely that there are so many guys who would be good solid value in the 3rd and 4th rounds, guys like Perine, Kelley and Dillon. Good guys will likely be available even in the 5th. That's the range where an RB will be BPA a pretty fair amount of the time.

Thanks for the response.  I think that most people think of BPA means staying at your draft slot and taking the highest rated player regardless of position.   I do not think that all those 150-200-300 players are that widely separated in value (best), so team needs and position choice also  play a role in the guys who are maybe in your 48-59 window.  Beane has shown he will spend lower draft picks to move up 5-10 slots when he thinks there is a real gem player available.

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Two very good ones is a bit unlikely. Few teams manage "2 very good backs." But yeah, they need a second one who's good. Yeldon might be that guy, but my guess is we bring in another guy at some point, through FA or the draft.

Denver just signed Bennett and they also have Lindsey.  The league always evolves it went to more pass prevalent offenses and defenses had to adjust by finding quicker and lighter players.  It wouldn't be the worst thing to have an offense that is very good at running to attack those lighter defenses.

 

I love what Singletary showed last season, but he isn't built to handle 20 touches per game for 16 games - really not many guys are.  I think it would be a good idea to pair Singletary with another good RB.  If there isn't good value at OT (don't think there will be), DE (don't think there will be) or CB (I think there will be some good value there), then why not a RB like Akers or Edwards-Helaire in round 2?  Splitting 25-30 touches per game between two good backs helps the offense and takes pressure off of Allen.

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Thanks for the response.  I think that most people think of BPA means staying at your draft slot and taking the highest rated player regardless of position.   I do not think that all those 150-200-300 players are that widely separated in value (best), so team needs and position choice also  play a role in the guys who are maybe in your 48-59 window.  Beane has shown he will spend lower draft picks to move up 5-10 slots when he thinks there is a real gem player available.

I think most of us agree with this point.  There may be groups of players at same and different positions that a team has graded closely.  

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1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Thanks for the response.  I think that most people think of BPA means staying at your draft slot and taking the highest rated player regardless of position.   I do not think that all those 150-200-300 players are that widely separated in value (best), so team needs and position choice also  play a role in the guys who are maybe in your 48-59 window.  Beane has shown he will spend lower draft picks to move up 5-10 slots when he thinks there is a real gem player available.

 

 

What Beane has actually showed is that he will spend lower draft picks to move up ... under certain circumstances. Specifically, he'll spend those lower picks if he has two picks in a round and can give one up while keeping a pick in each round. He's only emptied a round twice, both times when he's already had an extra pick earlier (he emptied the 4th round last year when he'd already made four picks in the first three rounds, and he emptied the 2nd round in 2018 when he'd already had two picks.

 

I haven't looked, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we now have no extra picks to trade away this year without creating empty rounds. He has no history on doing this.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Denver just signed Bennett and they also have Lindsey.  The league always evolves it went to more pass prevalent offenses and defenses had to adjust by finding quicker and lighter players.  It wouldn't be the worst thing to have an offense that is very good at running to attack those lighter defenses.

 

I love what Singletary showed last season, but he isn't built to handle 20 touches per game for 16 games - really not many guys are.  I think it would be a good idea to pair Singletary with another good RB.  If there isn't good value at OT (don't think there will be), DE (don't think there will be) or CB (I think there will be some good value there), then why not a RB like Akers or Edwards-Helaire in round 2?  Splitting 25-30 touches per game between two good backs helps the offense and takes pressure off of Allen.

 

 

 

Who's Bennett? Denver signed Bennett?

 

In any case, I didn't say there are no teams with two very good backs. I said there are FEW teams with two very good backs, and that is correct.

 

As for why not an RB in round two, because you can get NFL-ready backs much later every year and even more so this year, a very good year for good RB prospects  in rounds 3 - 5.

 

I do agree with you that we need another good back, but you can get a good back pretty easily these days, later in the draft or cheap in FA a guy like Carlos Hyde or Dion Lewis, someone like that. That's how I guess they will do it. It's how they filled the RB gaps last year, a mid-round pick and some cheaper good but not great FAs. I wouldn't expect them to go RB any earlier than the 3rd, or probably the 4th.

 

We'll see, I guess.

Edited by Thurman#1

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33 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Who's Bennett? Denver signed Bennett?

 

In any case, I didn't say there are no teams with two very good backs. I said there are FEW teams with two very good backs, and that is correct.

 

As for why not an RB in round two, because you can get NFL-ready backs much later every year and even more so this year, a very good year for good RB prospects  in rounds 3 - 5.

 

I do agree with you that we need another good back, but you can get a good back pretty easily these days, later in the draft or cheap in FA a guy like Carlos Hyde or Dion Lewis, someone like that. That's how I guess they will do it. It's how they filled the RB gaps last year, a mid-round pick and some cheaper good but not great FAs. I wouldn't expect them to go RB any earlier than the 3rd, or probably the 4th.

 

We'll see, I guess.

Oops, meant Melvin Gordon.  I don't know where I got Bennett from.

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Edge is definitely a need that we should address.  Murphy is a FA after this season and Hughes has two seasons left on his deal.  Time to start getting the next wave of DEs in the door. I see is a slew of players that could be taken in the second or (more likely) third round that can be good DEs.  If I’m Beane I’m coming away with a developmental starting DE with upside in this draft. 

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1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Edge is definitely a need that we should address.  Murphy is a FA after this season and Hughes has two seasons left on his deal.  Time to start getting the next wave of DEs in the door. I see is a slew of players that could be taken in the second or (more likely) third round that can be good DEs.  If I’m Beane I’m coming away with a developmental starting DE with upside in this draft. 

Who do you like among the DEs for pick 54?  I could *maybe* see Okwara fro Notre Dame or possibly Greenard from Florida.  I wanted to like Anae, but I just don't see it (not that I am an expert).  I wasn't that impressed with Terrell Lewis, either.

 

Alton Robinson looks to have some upside, but round 2 seems a little rich for him.

 

i have to believe that there will be better prospects available at 54 at CB and RB.  

 

I just don't think that the DE class is very good this year.  If I am right, it is too bad, because the Bills could certainly use a young talent there.

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13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Two very good ones is a bit unlikely. Few teams manage "2 very good backs." But yeah, they need a second one who's good. Yeldon might be that guy, but my guess is we bring in another guy at some point, through FA or the draft.

Gee, Thurman. You forgot Kenneth Davis already?

 

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Who's Bennett? Denver signed Bennett?

 

In any case, I didn't say there are no teams with two very good backs. I said there are FEW teams with two very good backs, and that is correct.

 

As for why not an RB in round two, because you can get NFL-ready backs much later every year and even more so this year, a very good year for good RB prospects  in rounds 3 - 5.

 

I do agree with you that we need another good back, but you can get a good back pretty easily these days, later in the draft or cheap in FA a guy like Carlos Hyde or Dion Lewis, someone like that. That's how I guess they will do it. It's how they filled the RB gaps last year, a mid-round pick and some cheaper good but not great FAs. I wouldn't expect them to go RB any earlier than the 3rd, or probably the 4th.

 

We'll see, I guess.

If there is an injury, do you want the running back to be somebody one step away from being a street free agent?

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Edge is definitely a need that we should address.  Murphy is a FA after this season and Hughes has two seasons left on his deal.  Time to start getting the next wave of DEs in the door. I see is a slew of players that could be taken in the second or (more likely) third round that can be good DEs.  If I’m Beane I’m coming away with a developmental starting DE with upside in this draft. 

I don't agree.  You are in the "drafting for need" extreme as opposed to the "BPA" extreme.  So gauche. !!

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On 3/24/2020 at 2:52 PM, CEN-CAL17 said:

I like the kid out of North Dakota St. Derrek Tuszka.


He is more of a 3-4 OLB but the kid can get after it. 6’3” 245, conference defensive player of the year. 13.5 sacks I think it was. Super quick off the ball. His 3 cone was a 6.8 which is quick. A non stop motor type guy. I see him being a round 5 guy maybe 4 if a team falls in love with him. But he’s roughly the same size as Lorax. More edge capable vs OLB.

 

Remember Lorenzo (One Man Gang) Alexander used to be much bigger and lost weight as he got older deliberately.   He was 289 in combine,  he was a TE briefly, gained weight, moved to defense line and lost weight to be more explosive and played LB. Can Derrek Tuszka add weight and still be effective and be fast enough to play special teams so he can be on active roster?  If not I cannot see Bills drafting him.

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9 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Who do you like among the DEs for pick 54?  I could *maybe* see Okwara fro Notre Dame or possibly Greenard from Florida.  I wanted to like Anae, but I just don't see it (not that I am an expert).  I wasn't that impressed with Terrell Lewis, either.

 

Alton Robinson looks to have some upside, but round 2 seems a little rich for him.

 

i have to believe that there will be better prospects available at 54 at CB and RB.  

 

I just don't think that the DE class is very good this year.  If I am right, it is too bad, because the Bills could certainly use a young talent there.


I wish I could give you a good answer.  I have done zero film study on those players. I’ve just been reading draft reports on some of them.

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Honestly I’m getting the vibe they’re going to roll with Addison/Hughes and Murphy/Jefferson/Johnson. It’s got enough depth that they can rotate well enough and keep guys fresh. 
 

If they see a guy like Epenesa slip, he could be a target in round 2. But really I think they’re going to look to draft a running back relatively early, and add at least one more  receiver on Day 3.

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After watching film on Addison last season, I’m all for edge at 54. Addison was not all that good at putting pressure on the QB.... Edge rusher is a need.

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5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

I don't agree.  You are in the "drafting for need" extreme as opposed to the "BPA" extreme.  So gauche. !!


Gauche!?!  How dare you!  Well, actually that’s fair point if it means we’d be taking a lesser prospect because we forced the position.  But I really didn’t mean it that way.  I just meant that we should look to find a DE that can develop into a good starter in the third or fourth round range.  There should be worthwhile prospects in that range and we can always move around a bit if needed.  If it doesn’t work out, then so be it.  But we should be proactive at the DE position if we can be. 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gee, Thurman. You forgot Kenneth Davis already?

 

 

 

No, I didn't forget Kenneth Davis. He's a perfect example of what I'm saying, that you don't need two very good backs. Davis was a good back. Not very good. He was good. You look at how he looked when he wasn't running behind the Bills absolutely excellent OL and spelling Thurman against defenses Thurman had already worn out, and it wasn't that great. 4.0 yards a carry in his first three years in the league in Green Bay. The Packers cut him after three years. The best offer he got was Buffalo where Thurman (already there for a year) was clearly going to get most of the snaps. I really liked Kenny Davis, he was an important part of that team, but he wasn't very good.

 

Then in Buffalo, fresh later in the games and running behind Jim Ritcher, Kent Hull and the rest, suddenly he manages 4.4 YPC the rest of his career. A good back in a good situation. He was a fine back, but he wasn't among, say, the top ten to twenty backs in the league, a reasonable definition of "very good."

 

 

11 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

If there is an injury, do you want the running back to be somebody one step away from being a street free agent?

I don't agree.  You are in the "drafting for need" extreme as opposed to the "BPA" extreme.  So gauche. !!

 

If there is an injury, I would be perfectly happy with someone like Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware, Devonta Freeman, Ty Montgomery, available good free agents sitting at home sweating as their projected contracts shrink, or a rookie like 247 pound AJ Dillon, who ran a 4.52 40 at the combine, or Lamical Perine, Joshua Kelley, Darrynton Evans, Scottie Phillips, or Ke'Shawn Vaughn. I'm plenty confident in Beane to look at that group and find a good solid pro running back, which is what the Bills need. He found Singletary in the 3rd, and this is a much better year for backs.

 

And again, no, I'm with Beane, as a BPA guy. The guy absolutely desperate for a running back in the 2nd, whoever he is ... that's the guy who's desperate to fill his need. You know, the guy so desperate for an RB that he runs over to a thread about edge rushers and does his best to kidnap the thread so he can talk more about his 2nd round RB obsession.  That's need.

 

I could see them going RB in the 2nd if it's BPA, say if Taylor or Dobbins fell to us and was clearly the BPA. I just don't think that's very likely.

Edited by Thurman#1

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Davis was considered a 1st round draft pick by 1986 NFL Draft by Mel Kiper and Gil Brandt,[1   . As a junior, he rushed for 1,611 yards (#3 in the NCAA) and 16 touchdowns, earning him a first team selection on the College Football All-America Team. He also had the 5th most votes of all candidates for the Heisman Trophy that year. He was selected by the Packers in the second round of the 1986 NFL Draft.[6]    As a rookie, he was the team's leading rusher with 519 yards, returned 12 kickoffs for 231 yards, and caught 21 passes for 142 yards. In 1987, he was their leading rusher again, although he only rushed for 413 yards. Davis played only 9 games with the Packers in 1988 due to injuries, and signed with the Bills after the season ended.   In 1990, he rushed for 302 yards on just 64 carries (a 4.7 yards per carry average), caught 9 passes for 78 yards, and scored 5 touchdowns.  In 1992, Davis had the best season of his career. He rushed for 613 yards, caught 15 passes for 80 yards, returned 14 kickoffs for 251 yards, and scored a career-high 6 touchdowns. But he is best remembered for his superb performance in the post season. In Buffalo's wild card game against the Houston Oilers, Thomas was knocked out of the game early with a hip injury, and Houston built up a 28–3 first half lead. Then, they increased it to 35–3 early in the third quarter when backup quarterback Frank Reich's pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. But in what became known as The Comeback, Buffalo stormed back and won the game 41–38 in overtime; the rally from the 32-point deficit[8] was the largest comeback in NFL history. Davis was instrumental in the Bills victory, rushing for 68 yards, catching 2 passes for 25 yards, and scoring the first touchdown of the game for Buffalo.    cf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Davis_(American_football)

 

Okay, so the facts are that Davis was the backup, played well and at least once got the Bills into the Superbowl.  I like that, although others might differ.  He was a 1-2ndr round guy and was drafted in the second round.   I don't think it was a wasted pickup for the Bills. 

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Posted (edited)

Yes, I guess we agree on that. He was good, not very good.

 

And was by no means a wasted pickup for the Bills. He was indeed a second round guy, but he absolutely did not live up to that, which was why the Pack cut him after his third year. Picking him in the second round was a mistake. Getting him on a backup contract as a free agent was a great move.

 

So doing what I want us to do here, picking up a solid guy as an FA, was a great move for the Bills. And doing what you want us to do, drafting Kenny Davis, a guy who has what you and I both want in a platooning second RB, in the 2nd round, was a bad move by the Pack. Exactly.

 

Edited by Thurman#1

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