Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[plenzmd1]

4 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

So it took this chucklehead  6 minutes to finally getting around to “ good news is death rate keeps dropping “.  And you can tell in his voice, he wishes more Americans would be dying. so he could be “ righter”

2 hours ago, Bad Things said:

 

Mate, my wife and I talk about this all the time.

We moved away from the US 15 years ago and try to imagine how our level of sanity would be in we never moved.

 

One controversy after another.  Day after day.

 

Kia Kaha! (Stay strong!)

Hope the door did not hit your backside when ya left

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

So it took this chucklehead  6 minutes to finally getting around to “ good news is death rate keeps dropping “.  And you can tell in his voice, he wishes more Americans would be dying. so he could be “ righter”

 

I don't want to get in to discussing one's opinion of a TV analyst's voice and what it means about what he really thinks.  It doesn't strike me as informative or useful here.

 

The thing that I think is helpful to understand: the average interval from infection to death with covid-19 (for those who die) is 18-23 days.  That means for every person who is hospitalized briefly and recovers in a week, there is someone else who is critically ill and who fights for a month before succumbing, and as treatment improves, that interval will only lengthen. 

 

The second thing to understand is that covid-19 spreads silently until it reaches a susceptible person or population.  Then serious cases and hospitalizations take off.

 

But due to the average interval from infection to death, deaths will lag, on average, 3 weeks behind an upward trajectory in hospitalizations.    And with more widespread testing catching a larger number of asymptomatic cases, hospitalizations will lag case counts.

 

I found a good graphic showing this the other day, I'm looking for it and when I do, I'll come back and put it here.

 

Hopefully more patients will now recover because of all the improvements in care - blood thinners, dexamethasone, remdesivir, delayed use of ventilators in favor of high flow oxygen and prone positioning, convalescent plasma etc, so we will hopefully see fewer deaths.  But this is still a devastating disease for which we have only supportive and symptomatic treatment.  And it will not help that hospitals are near capacity already in a number of areas.

 

My take, and I speak as someone with a beloved parent in a senior living facility and a dear friend whose 90 yr old father survived covid-19 in a decimated nursing home, is that we have not done nearly enough to protect the most vulnerable.  In most places, testing of caregivers and HCW is still scarce.  PPE and infection control procedures have improved in some care homes, but not all. 

 

We are talking about testing college students and football players every 3 or 5 days, but not about testing every caregiver and HCW working with the elderly every day.  We have areas in MO, which is not a particularly hard-hit state, where testing is already lagging 3-7 days behind, yet there is no coordinated nationwide effort to promote pooled testing especially for screening tests.

 

It is known to be very very difficult to isolate a vulnerable population in the face of circulating epidemic disease in the general population.  We could be tackling that degree of difficulty head on - but we aren't.  Example: the entire facility my mother lives in was just tested for the first time mid-June.  One covid infection in a resident, and one in her caregiver (who was a private duty aide not caring for anyone else) were found.   Probably the resident contracted it from the aide.  But it was just Grace that the infected aide was private duty, and not caring for a wing full of people.

 

So I hope you will grant me the benefit of the doubt that I have no glee in saying this, but in these circumstances, with case rates skyrocketing and hospitalizations climbing,  I do not believe that the death rate will not be dropping for long.

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, TBBills said:

If you don't pay attention to it you never have to worry. 

 

It's a point that if I watched television or cable news on a regular basis I'm sure I'd need medication for hypertension

[Augie]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's a point that if I watched television or cable news on a regular basis I'm sure I'd need medication for hypertension

 

We have finally convinced my 92 year old mother to stay away from the stiinkin’ news!!! I was literally making her sick to her stomach worrying about it. 

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't want to get in to discussing one's opinion of a TV analyst's voice and what it means about what he really thinks.  It doesn't strike me as informative or useful here.

 

The thing that I think is helpful to understand: the average interval from infection to death with covid-19 (for those who die) is 18-23 days.  That means for every person who is hospitalized briefly and recovers in a week, there is someone else who is critically ill and who fights for a month before succumbing, and as treatment improves, that interval will only lengthen. 

 

The second thing to understand is that covid-19 spreads silently until it reaches a susceptible person or population.  Then serious cases and hospitalizations take off.

 

But due to the average interval from infection to death, deaths will lag, on average, 3 weeks behind an upward trajectory in hospitalizations.    And with more widespread testing catching a larger number of asymptomatic cases, hospitalizations will lag case counts.

 

I found a good graphic showing this the other day, I'm looking for it and when I do, I'll come back and put it here.

 

Hopefully more patients will now recover because of all the improvements in care - blood thinners, dexamethasone, remdesivir, delayed use of ventilators in favor of high flow oxygen and prone positioning, convalescent plasma etc, so we will hopefully see fewer deaths.  But this is still a devastating disease for which we have only supportive and symptomatic treatment.  And it will not help that hospitals are near capacity already in a number of areas.

 

My take, and I speak as someone with a beloved parent in a senior living facility and a dear friend whose 90 yr old father survived covid-19 in a decimated nursing home, is that we have not done nearly enough to protect the most vulnerable.  In most places, testing of caregivers and HCW is still scarce.  PPE and infection control procedures have improved in some care homes, but not all. 

 

We are talking about testing college students and football players every 3 or 5 days, but not about testing every caregiver and HCW working with the elderly every day.  We have areas in MO, which is not a particularly hard-hit state, where testing is already lagging 3-7 days behind, yet there is no coordinated nationwide effort to promote pooled testing especially for screening tests.

 

It is known to be very very difficult to isolate a vulnerable population in the face of circulating epidemic disease in the general population.  We could be tackling that degree of difficulty head on - but we aren't.  Example: the entire facility my mother lives in was just tested for the first time mid-June.  One covid infection in a resident, and one in her caregiver (who was a private duty aide not caring for anyone else) were found.   Probably the resident contracted it from the aide.  But it was just Grace that the infected aide was private duty, and not caring for a wing full of people.

 

So I hope you will grant me the benefit of the doubt that I have no glee in saying this, but in these circumstances, with case rates skyrocketing and hospitalizations climbing,  I do not believe that the death rate will not be dropping for long.

 

 

 

 

all good points..and let me counter and hope you grant me the benefit the doubt you ask. I do not not have people in 'high risk" groups as you do, and ceratinly that impacts our views. I do however have two kids who lives are being dramtically impacted, even though all evidence points to the fact they are are at less risk from Covid than the ordinary flu, or less than .0002 percent chance of dying. And yes, that number is correct.

 

And yes, case rates have been escalating since Memorial Day. Deaths have not escalated at same rate. So we are a good 7 weeks since then, when do we say its evidence? After 12 weeks?

 

If it changes, it changes. but i hope policy makers are   not going to use numbers from NY and NJ in March and April to form policy moving forward

 

 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by plenzmd1

[Warcodered]

Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/missouri-summer-camp-closes-after-82-kids-and-staff-infected-with-coronavirus/ar-BB16uKqY?ocid=msedgntp

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by Warcodered

[TBBills]

3 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/missouri-summer-camp-closes-after-82-kids-and-staff-infected-with-coronavirus/ar-BB16uKqY?ocid=msedgntp

 

I noticed it's a lot of religious gatherings that are really messing things up here.

[ALF]

FDA warns against using two dozen hand sanitizers that could contain toxic wood alcohol

 

(CNN)The Food and Drug Administration has added more hand sanitizers to its growing list of products that contain wood alcohol, which is toxic if absorbed through the skin.

 

More than two dozen various hand sanitizers sold by the Mexico-based company 4E Global -- many carrying the Blumen label -- contain high levels of methanol, or wood alcohol, and have been recommended for recall.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/health/hand-sanitizer-methanol-fda-trnd/index.html

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

all good points..and let me counter and hope you grant me the benefit the doubt you ask. I do not not have people in 'high risk" groups as you do, and ceratinly that impacts our views. I do however have two kids who lives are being dramtically impacted, even though all evidence points to the fact they are are at less risk from Covid than the ordinary flu, or less than .0002 percent chance of dying. And yes, that number is correct.

 

And yes, case rates have been escalating since Memorial Day. Deaths have not escalated at same rate. So we are a good 7 weeks since then, when do we say its evidence? After 12 weeks?

 

If it changes, it changes. but i hope policy makers are   not going to use numbers from NY and NJ in March and April to form policy moving forward

 

I’d be obliged if you can provide a source for that 0.0002% chance of dying (0.000002 death rate), so that I can understand where you’re coming from.

But the argument about schools shouldn’t be that kids are or are not at risk.  The question is: we know now they do get infected.  Traditionally schools serve as “disease amplifiers” during an epidemic because children are children and are casual about contact and hygiene, then pass the disease to adult caregivers teachers and other school personnel, who pass it to the people they live and socialize with.

 

If you look at the actual significant rise in cases, it starts to really take off about mid-June in most states, and the hospitalizations are lagging by a couple weeks.

 

Back around Memorial Day (I don’t have the energy about it to dig up my posts, but I think a couple of guys here will vouch for me) I pointed out that hospitalizations would take 4-6 weeks to begin to climb because it’s clear now that’s how this epidemic works - it circulates and amplifies in young and prime working age people “silently” until it hits enough truly vulnerable people (not necessarily just old people) to show up in clinics and hospitals.  Then the interval from infection to death is another 2.5-3 weeks.  

 

So that’s just where we are - about 6 weeks in from Memorial Day, hospitals are  now seeing a surge and filling up, and deaths are also starting to rise.

 

Edit: here is a chart I put together from two graphs for Texas, sourced from Worldometer, that illustrates this point.  I'm not myself an epidemiologist, but those who are say this pattern is what's expected.  The point is to say "deaths have been rising since Memorial Day, haven't escalated at the same rate" is an expectation out of sync with the learnings in epidemiology and prognosis of covid-19 cases.

 

[plenzmd1]

51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I’d be obliged if you can provide a source for that 0.0002% chance of dying (0.000002 death rate), so that I can understand where you’re coming from.

But the argument about schools shouldn’t be that kids are or are not at risk.  The question is: we know now they do get infected.  Traditionally schools serve as “disease amplifiers” during an epidemic because children are children and are casual about contact and hygiene, then pass the disease to adult caregivers teachers and other school personnel, who pass it to the people they live and socialize with.

 

If you look at the actual significant rise in cases, it starts to really take off about mid-June in most states, and the hospitalizations are lagging by a couple weeks.

 

Back around Memorial Day (I don’t have the energy about it to dig up my posts, but I think a couple of guys here will vouch for me) I pointed out that hospitalizations would take 4-6 weeks to begin to climb because it’s clear now that’s how this epidemic works - it circulates and amplifies in young and prime working age people “silently” until it hits enough truly vulnerable people (not necessarily just old people) to show up in clinics and hospitals.  Then the interval from infection to death is another 2.5-3 weeks.   So that’s just where we are - about 6 weeks in from Memorial Day, hospitals are  now seeing a surge and filling up, and deaths are also starting to rise.

 

 

according to this chart, 14 years and under we have had 14 deaths, and we are at least 6 months in.

 

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

 

And according to this website, we have appx 60,000,000M in that population

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/

 

so14/60,000,000M is equal to .00000023.

 

I am not talking IFR, but death rates vs the population. It is a statistical blip.

 

In terms of schools and being disease amplifiers, we have little to go on outside of other countries and some anecdotal studies. Here is one article that points to their being little risk of transmission. Lets not forget, these were daycares catering to front line responders, theoretically the very same people who should carry highest risk of infection, especially early on when PPE was not the best.

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns

 

On the flip side of that, we have the 82 sick at the Missouri camp. Now, sleep over camp completely different, but a development that bears watching without doubt. 

 

Another good article about schools opening from ab 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by plenzmd1

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

according to this chart, 14 years and under we have had 14 deaths, and we are at least 6 months in.

 

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

 

And according to this website, we have appx 60,000,000M in that population

 

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

 

so14/60,000,000M is equal to .00000023.

 

I am not talking IFR, but death rates vs the population. It is a statistical blip.

 

In terms of schools and being disease amplifiers, we have little to go on outside of other countries and some anecdotal studies. Here is one article that points to their being little risk of transmission. Lets not forget, these were daycares catering to front line responders, theoretically the very same people who should carry highest risk of infection, especially early on when PPE was not the best.

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/24/882316641/what-parents-can-learn-from-child-care-centers-that-stayed-open-during-lockdowns

 

On the flip side of that, we have the 82 sick at the Missouri camp. Now, sleep over camp completely different, but a development that bears watching without doubt. 

 

Another good article about schools opening from ab

 

Think you might have hit send too soon?

When I spoke of schools as "disease amplifiers", I'm speaking of epidemiological knowledge - and we have WAY more to go on than anecdotal studies.

 

Otherwise, Thanks.  Yes, if your kids are <14, data support that their risk from covid-19 disease is very low.

 

I wish there were more stuff published - Sweden surely has some good learnings as their schools and daycares stayed open.

But good articles, and thank you very much for giving your sources!

I found this paragraph interesting:

"Working in early days, and on very short notice, these two organizations followed safety guidance that closely resembles what's now been officially put out by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Y says a few staff members and parents at sites around the country did test positive, but there are no records of having more than one case at a site. This, among a population of essential workers."

 

It sounds as though the YMCAs did a very good job - I liked the story of teaching kids "airplane arms" and of establishing "pods" of 9 kids that did not interact, and the note that they were following CDC guidance.

 

Our government has questioned the CDC guidance, saying it is "too tough and expensive" for schools to follow.  I note that if schools open under a different set of rules that are closer to "business as usual", the results may differ. 

 

I'm looking to see if a contact tracing report was ever produced for a cluster of 3 infections in a preschool here, early in the epidemic.  It wasn't clear at the time what the transmission mode was (teacher to teacher, or teacher to child to child's teachers).  One died.  But it's good to know that hasn't been the case overall.

I'm just deeply troubled by arguments such as "in Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden schools are open with no problems" when many of those countries appear to be in a very different status with regard to epidemic control.

[plenzmd1]

@Hapless Bills Fan, agree on we have plenty of studies and epidemiological( many i can barely say that word let alone spell it) knowledge ..but with other viruses, and not this one. This seems to be be behaving differently, but again agree way to little information to claim one way or the other.

 

I am also of the opinion we need to make allowances for ALL teachers and support staff that have high risk factors..and by allowances i mean be paid in full etc. How that gets done, that's the tricky part. If say 20% of teachers and support have high rick factors and stay home...how does that affect class sizes etc? So many questions

 

I have let Richmond Public Schools know I am more than happy to help in the classroom any way i can, but lord knows I am no teacher...but will do my part if they need me in any way..including  janitorial work and working the cafeteria etc . 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Missouri Summer Camp Closes After 82 Kids and Staff Infected with Coronavirus

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/missouri-summer-camp-closes-after-82-kids-and-staff-infected-with-coronavirus/ar-BB16uKqY?ocid=msedgntp

 

It's worth noting that in S. MO, there's currently a 3-10 day backlog on covid-19 testing.  So there may be more cases to come.

 

Camps in Arkansas and Texas have also suffered outbreaks, and it sounds as though the Kanakuk camp didn't handle it well:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/kanakuk-kamps-battle-covid-cluster-n1233186

 

More info: the Kanakuk camp required a "hold harmless" waiver for covid-19 to be signed:

“I hereby voluntarily release, waive and forever discharge any and all claims against Kanakuk Ministries, its board of directors, officers, employees, volunteers, agents and all other persons or entities affiliated with Kanakuk or acting on its behalf that relate in any way to COVID-19, including but not limited to any claim arising from or relating to my exposure to, infection with, or other harm related to COVID-19,” the waiver reads. “While performing the services and/or following my performance of the services, and also including harm related to my spread of COVID-19 to others including my family members. I further agree to reimburse Kanakuk for attorney fees incurred related to enforcing this waiver provision.”

 

One parent of a young staffer feels the camp did not do a good job of responding or informing parents:  "One of Chase’s sons told her that on July 1 that staff members corralled the campers in a large group (inside a structure called the "K Dome") to announce the end of camp because of multiple confirmed COVID-19 cases.  “Why were campers put at risk for further exposure and spread by gathering everyone as a large group inside the K-Dome instead of being sent to their respective cabins and informed there by their cabin leaders?” Chase asked the camp’s leadership in her email......campers assembled again that night for what he called a "mosh-pit-style" dance party. “There was no social distancing in this mosh pit,” Chase wrote.   Chase said that one of her sons told her that he had received a COVID-19 nasal swab test, but that she was neither informed about the testing nor received any results. The camp had called, she underscores, when there was a tick on her other son."

Texas

https://www.easttexasmatters.com/news/top-stories/pine-cove-cancels-camp-sessions-after-staff-campers-test-positive-for-covid-19/

 

Arkansas

https://kfor.com/news/summer-camps-close-after-covid-19-outbreaks-among-campers-staff/

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

@Hapless Bills Fan, agree on we have plenty of studies and epidemiological( many i can barely say that word let alone spell it) knowledge ..but with other viruses, and not this one. This seems to be be behaving differently, but again agree way to little information to claim one way or the other.

 

I am also of the opinion we need to make allowances for ALL teachers and support staff that have high risk factors..and by allowances i mean be paid in full etc. How that gets done, that's the tricky part. If say 20% of teachers and support have high rick factors and stay home...how does that affect class sizes etc? So many questions

 

I have let Richmond Public Schools know I am more than happy to help in the classroom any way i can, but lord knows I am no teacher...but will do my part if they need me in any way..including  janitorial work and working the cafeteria etc . 

 

I think that schools for children could and should reopen safely - but that means smaller classrooms, masks at least for teachers, techniques like the "pods" described for the YMCA daycares - while at the same time, if 20% of teachers stay home or somehow contribute to teaching remotely (maybe with an aide or volunteer monitor in the room, running the AV and watching the situation?), they somehow need more, not less, staff....

 

I believe this is a situation, like care homes, where we could identify the key issues to infection mitigation and prevention, operate more safely, and thereby keep more businesses open (and bring them more business).  But there doesn't seem to be a coordinate national effort in the works to actually say "OK, what do we need?" and make it happen.

 

 

[GottaRun]

26 Shirts had done a fundraiser for a friend of a friend's daughter, Tatiana.  Sadly I got the following news

"3 months ago, I got a message from Lori that her dear girl was headed to the hospital with what might be covid. And, yesterday, she and I talked about how her fight was coming to an end... an end we had hoped and prayed against.

 

Just a couple weeks after turning 22, the beautiful little curly haired girl that went to kindergarten with my son, lost her battle against covid."

About 14 weeks from entering the hospital to passing away, 22 years old.  I fear for what will come in the next months in Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California, as the current cases turn to hospitalizations, and the hospitalizations turn to... we'll have to wait and see.
 

[Punching Bag]

9 hours ago, TBBills said:

I noticed it's a lot of religious gatherings that are really messing things up here.

 

Power of prayer is not working. They should try praying to Hippocrates.

[Bad Things]

21 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Hope the door did not hit your backside when ya left

Nope, it sure didn't!

[Greg S]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-hail-stunning-results-show-180918348.html

 

Good news for New Yorkers if true.

[GottaRun]

Taken from the DataIsBeautiful sub on Reddit

[shoshin]

8 hours ago, driddles said:

Taken from the DataIsBeautiful sub on Reddit

 

There is ONE America not two. Lincoln was president of a war on this point. Your graph is cases but what I see is sick Americans and dead Americans, not sick red vs blue voters. I hate this crap. If you're an American and believe in America, you have empathy with Americans in pain regardless of their vote and want to help them. 

 

The first word in our country's name is the most important one. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[GottaRun]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

There is ONE America not two. Lincoln was president of a war on this point. Your graph is cases but what I see is sick Americans and dead Americans, not sick red vs blue voters. I hate this crap. If you're an American and believe in America, you have empathy with Americans in pain regardless of their vote and want to help them. 

 

The first word in our country's name is the most important one. 

1. I'm not an American, I'm a Canadian
2. The DataIsBeautiful sub reddit just presents data in an easier to understand visual format
3. As this is the Covid discussion thread I think the graph is relevant

You can "hate this crap" if you like, but I think it provides value

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

There is ONE America not two. Lincoln was president of a war on this point. Your graph is cases but what I see is sick Americans and dead Americans, not sick red vs blue voters. I hate this crap. If you're an American and believe in America, you have empathy with Americans in pain regardless of their vote and want to help them. 

 

The first word in our country's name is the most important one. 

 

On the one hand, I applaud and agree with you.  A friend of mine posted this graphic on Facebook back in June when that blue line was not trending up so it looked like a better point,  and I took him to task for it “just what point are you trying to make here?” And we had some back and forth about it.  The main problem I have with it is if you look under the hood, you’ll see some states with Republican governors (New Hampshire, for example) that are doing well, and some states with Democratic governors, like California, that are doing horribly.

 

On the other hand, I think it’s clear the response to the virus has become politicized, with “blue” states overall more inclined to listen to their public health officials and institute measures such as mask wearing, and “red” states more inclined to frame mask wearing as a “personal choice” or even go so far as to frame wearing a mask as disrespect for the President on the one hand or an aspersions on one’s personal courage on the other, or believe “who cares because it’s 99% harmless”.  

 

AND THE VIRUS DOESN’T CARE ABOUT YOUR POLITICS or your personal choice or your personal courage. It will rise where people behave in a way that allows it to rise - like indoor crowds not wearing masks or gatherings of extended family/friends where there is close personal contact.  It will fall when people behave in a way that stymies it, like wearing masks that block transmission (your mask protects ME, so much for my personal choice), avoiding indoor crowds, remaining spatially distant even when gathered with family and friends.  In states with Republican governors where the people by and large follow good advice, they’re doing just fine.  In states with Democratic governors where despite the Governor’s policies people decided they just don’t GAS (*cough* California *cough*) things suck, Over.

 

And in states like NY that kicked this things ass, there will be a struggle to keep it that way because in the end, it’s like trying to maintain a pee-free zone in a swimming pool.  We are all in the same pool and we will swim efficiently or flounder together.

[GottaRun]

"We are all in the same pool and we will swim efficiently or flounder together."  I love that.  

As a Canadian season ticket holder (since 2004), I've accepted that I will not be able to go to Bills games this year, the border won't open.  As long as there's even one state that keeps peeing in the pool that pool will remain closed to me.  If the peeing kids had blue hats on I'd still be showing the graph.
 

Edited July 10, 2020 by driddles

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, driddles said:

1. I'm not an American, I'm a Canadian

 

Then I speak to others who often share this in the same way. 

 

1 hour ago, driddles said:

2. The DataIsBeautiful sub reddit just presents data in an easier to understand visual format
3. As this is the Covid discussion thread I think the graph is relevant

You can "hate this crap" if you like, but I think it provides value

 

If you posted this in April, it showed the opposite point ("Dem" leaning states were getting obliterated). But California (the most Dem state in the union) is leading the nation in Covid deaths right now. The virus doesn't care what politics anyone has. If you changed the legend from Rep and Dem to "States that were not hit hard in March and April" and "States that were hit hard in March and April" the graph would be more extreme because California would be added to the red line. The graph was constructed for one purpose: Division. 

[Warcodered]

 

[GottaRun]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

The graph was constructed for one purpose: Division. 

Or the graph can be used for education.  What is happening in those states that leads to higher numbers? 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, driddles said:

Or the graph can be used for education.  What is happening in those states that leads to higher numbers? 

 

Could be lots of things. But splitting it by party is meant to sew division. 3 months ago, you had the likes of John in Jax saying FL was in great shape and look at the Dem state mess. And if you count total deaths, the D-leaning states are WAY WAY WAY behind the more R states. It's just a dumb way to look at things. We are one country. The virus isn't playing politics. People are. 

 

If you split it by states that saw spikes in march vs not, the difference is more dramatic and meaningful, and that's not politics. It just happens that many of the states that didn't get crushed initially were R states. 

 

Imagine a world where we cheered for our brothers and sisters in Florida, AZ, TX, and SoCal. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Could be lots of things. But splitting it by party is meant to sew division. 3 months ago, you had the likes of John in Jax saying FL was in great shape and look at the Dem state mess. And if you count total deaths, the D-leaning states are WAY WAY WAY behind the more R states. It's just a dumb way to look at things. We are one country. The virus isn't playing politics. People are. 

 

If you split it by states that saw spikes in march vs not, the difference is more dramatic and meaningful, and that's not politics. It just happens that many of the states that didn't get crushed initially were R states. 

 

Imagine a world where we cheered for our brothers and sisters in Florida, AZ, TX, and SoCal. 

 

While I applaud your underlying philosophy and agree wholeheartedly that the virus isn't political, people are (and that ultimately, that graph is divisive in effect if not intent).........

 

........I'm really struggling to cheer for Florida Man, Arizona Woman, and the "Bar Lives Matter" folks. 

 

Yesterday I discovered that in response to mask requirements, totally useless mesh and crocheted masks are selling out on Etsy.  I wanted to puke.  Then I wanted to burn something.  I'm sure there are many sincere and sensible people in those states, I'm just being transparent about where my head's at right now.  

 

I haven't hugged my 88 year old mother since March 14th.  I can count the number of times I've seen her, to mime hugs at each other or exchange a few words through a partly-open screened window on my fingers.  And we're tremendously lucky - she's mentally competent, does not need daily care, has not needed much in the way of physician visits, and is learning to use the iphone we bought her to see pictures we send and to text us/read texts.  We had hopes, back in May, that we could start to do things with her in June - reasonably safe things, like all wear masks and push her in a wheelchair outside around the Botanical Gardens or have tea on a patio sitting 6 feet apart.

 

Elders who are suffering from some form of mental/memory deficit are suffering horridly.  From their POV their families abandoned them, at the same time their living facility started confining them to their room and canceled all the social events/activities for reasons that are unclear to them or worse, "fake news" "fake virus" "not hazardous to 99% of the people who catch it".  They are lonely, they are isolated, they are miserable. 

 

These are NOT people who are lying around waiting to die, which seems to be a common view of people in nursing homes held by those who don't know any - they are people who had tea and played games with their families every weekend, went on outings with family regularly, had lunch every day with their spouse and friends. 

 

The infection control procedures in many of their facilities still suck, and their employee testing plan is often wholly inadequate.  Elders in these facilities where cases are soaring are going to be getting sick. 

 

Then the hospitalizations will soar and the deaths will follow.

 

 

1 hour ago, driddles said:

Or the graph can be used for education.  What is happening in those states that leads to higher numbers? 

 

I got to agree with shoshin on this.  If you want to understand what is going on in states that leads to higher numbers, you look at what is going on in states that have soaring numbers.  You don't bin Democratic CA in with NY, and you don't bin Republican-led NH and MA in with TX, AZ, and FL.

[GottaRun]

51 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Imagine a world where we cheered for our brothers and sisters in Florida, AZ, TX, and SoCal. 

I agree, and It's funny that you say that.  As a Canadian, when someone asks me about visiting another province, I have nothing but good things to say.  I love this country from East to West.  When I overhear another Canadian being asked the same question they usually answer in the same way, positive reviews.

However, after hundreds of trips across the border, and visiting 30 states I'll say the following about Americans.
Best hosts in the world, every state
Friendliest people, every state
Generous to a fault

But when we tell people what state we are visiting next we get the rundown of everything that is wrong with that state.  Every time.

I'll never get it

*** I think we're about to see updates that Florida had a very bad day 

Edited July 10, 2020 by driddles

[K-9]

The very nature of pandemics is political. That said, the single most important factor in not sewing division during a pandemic is leadership that stresses the importance of banding together and the need to make the necessary sacrifices to bring it under control. We don’t have that kind of unifying leadership. Not even close. Indeed, we have leadership that seeks to foster the opposite. 

[GottaRun]

Florida adds 11,433 cases and another 93 deaths  

Half of Florida's ICUs are now at least 90% full

All hospitals full in Houston

I get my info from the Reddit CoronaVirus sub an excellent place for quick, condensed updates
 

Edited July 10, 2020 by driddles

[LB3]

Does anyone know total number of US deaths at this same point last year? The total number for this year were easy to find but last year are tougher to find. How much higher is the death toll at this point than it was last year?

Edited July 11, 2020 by LB3

[Augie]

17 minutes ago, LB3 said:

Does anyone know total number of deaths at this same point last year? The total number for this year were easy to find but last year are tougher to find. How much higher is the death toll at this point than it was last year?

 

Yes, people do die every year. Hard to argue that. 

 

That’s as far as I can go here. What’s your point? Covid deaths are a drop in the bucket? Is your mom a drop in the bucket. How about Granny in the nursing home? 

 

Do you suggest eliminating seat belts? 

 

I hope I misunderstood this, in which case I apologize. 

 

It sounds like “cancer doesn’t kill everybody, it’s not that big of a deal.”

 

 

.

Edited July 11, 2020 by Augie

[ExiledInIllinois]

8 hours ago, driddles said:

I agree, and It's funny that you say that.  As a Canadian, when someone asks me about visiting another province, I have nothing but good things to say.  I love this country from East to West.  When I overhear another Canadian being asked the same question they usually answer in the same way, positive reviews.

However, after hundreds of trips across the border, and visiting 30 states I'll say the following about Americans.
Best hosts in the world, every state
Friendliest people, every state
Generous to a fault

But when we tell people what state we are visiting next we get the rundown of everything that is wrong with that state.  Every time.

I'll never get it

*** I think we're about to see updates that Florida had a very bad day 

Quebec on line #1, please pick up...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Yes, people do die every year. Hard to argue that. 

 

That’s as far as I can go here. What’s your point? Covid deaths are a drop in the bucket? Is your mom a drop in the bucket. How about Granny in the nursing home? 

 

Do you suggest eliminating seat belts? 

 

I hope I misunderstood this, in which case I apologize. 

 

It sounds like “cancer doesn’t kill everybody, it’s not that big of a deal.”.

 

I could be wrong, but I think he’s asking a reasonable question, and one that I can’t figure out from the CDC data.

Every year, there’s a seasonal mortality.  This year, there’s been a huge spike over that, some diagnosed as covid, in many places a good spike that is NOT so diagnosed but probably mostly is - I put some data up in a post estimating IFR on the facts thread.

 

I think he’s asking by how much this year’s mortality exceeds last years.  It’s a good question and one overall in the US I’m having trouble finding an answer to

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, LB3 said:

Does anyone know total number of US deaths at this same point last year? The total number for this year were easy to find but last year are tougher to find. How much higher is the death toll at this point than it was last year?

 

This may not quite be what you’re looking for, but this study (March 1through April 21) compared this year to an average of 6 previous years.  They concluded there were 87,000 excess deaths this year, of which 56,000 were attributed to covid-19.  What usually happens with an epidemic disease is that initially deaths that aren’t identified as such (eg someone who was pretty healthy died unexpectedly and without testing, they had diabetes so that winds up on the cause of death but.....).

 

So just in that two month stretch, the death toll from COVID-19 could be about 25,000 deaths higher.

 

[GottaRun]

11 hours ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Quebec on line #1, please pick up...

Old Quebec city is a must see for anyone in North America.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This post on the facts only thread by @shoshin  has the best video I’ve seen about why masks work

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/223756-covid-19-facts-and-information-only-thread/page/17/

 

Putting it here in case anyone has follow-up questions

[ExiledInIllinois]

35 minutes ago, driddles said:

Old Quebec city is a must see for anyone in North America.  

Few times been there, skiing nearby Mont-Sainte-Anne.  Stayed in Old City.  One time Chateau Frontenac. I guess it's  the closest  to Europe in N.America.

[GottaRun]

LDS asks church members to wear masks

 

Israel announces antibody that neutralizes virus  

 

30 year old dies after attending Coronavirus party

 

Mutation in Arizona Coronavirus may make it more infectious