Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[BillsFan4]

40 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Just heading to the course , so short. But NYC absolutely needed them by all accounts. Texas is not NYC   
 

My implication was only that the delay of funerals is a contributing factor for the need in Texas

 

good discussion, we need of them!

 

Yeah, it’s partly a delay in funerals. But what is the cause of that delay?

 

Texas is still allowing funerals. They’re just limiting the number of people able to attend.

 

From June:

 

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/funeral-homes-still-adapting-to-covid-19-restrictions/

 

What is the reason for needing these refrigerated trucks over 4 months into the pandemic hitting their state (1st case in Texas was March 4th)? I think many of these hospitals and funeral homes aren’t really set up to process the number of deaths happening right now. It’s not like Texas hasn’t been dealing with covid deaths for months now.

 

from April:

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/
 

over 290,000 cases and 3500+ deaths in April.

 

But covid hospitalizations in Texas has increased dramatically in June and July. 
 

Edited July 17, 2020 by BillsFan4

[K-9]

8 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Former game show host deactivates Twitter account after his son contracts Covid-1

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/us/chuck-woolery-son-covid-19/index.html

 

 

I will not say he deserved it but I will say roasted on his own petard.

What’s the difference between not actually calling it a hoax and saying everybody, including the CDC, is lying about it? Chuck Woolery is a piece of work. Not surprised that cowardly little Biotch deleted his twitter account. 

[GottaRun]

Didn't see this posted - UAE Says sniffer dogs detect Covid-19 with 92% accuracy.

Be easier to have larger events with a trained team of dogs clearing everyone before entry.  Would take the stress level down a notch too.  No swabs, no temp check, hey look at the doggie.

"The UAE has reported early success in using dogs to detect people infected with Covid-19 and plans to deploy specially trained canine teams at airports as it seeks to reopen as a regional travel hub.

Trials of police sniffer dogs “achieved approximately 92 per cent in overall accuracy” in identifying samples of the coronavirus, the country’s interior ministry said last week, adding that its research was leading the field globally."

Edited July 17, 2020 by driddles

[Figster]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Here's a primer on contact tracing (you'll note there is a confidentiality aspect- no names are included as part of the traceback): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/contact-tracing.html

 

Also estimated only 40% of symptomatic COVID-19 case contacts need to be identified and quarantined to manage spread, your examples are unlikely to constitute >60% of a symptomatic person's contacts: https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/29/contact-tracing-can-it-help-avoid-more-lockdowns/

I'm not suggesting we stop contact tracing altogether.( It helps )  Simply pointing out why contact tracing by itself leaves to many holes.

 

Names and places have to be given for the tracing to take place. Are we looking to manage the spread or stop it? (40%) 

 

Question, If you don't mind my asking? Does it look like we are managing the spread of Covid 19 properly here in the US?

 

Anyone? 

Edited July 17, 2020 by Figster

[The Dean]

3 hours ago, Figster said:

Contact tracing is a flawed method in the fight against Covid 19 in my humble opinion. For the simple fact that you have to many people reluctant to share their activities for various reason. Will a married man give out the name/s of his mistress/s? Same goes for the mistress. Will a drug dealer give out the names of his customers? Will a working man divulge in his whereabouts while he's spending time at the lake with his buddies fishing when he's supposed to be at work? Probably not.( just a few examples) Regardless of how much coaxing a contact tracer uses to many gaps will occur to do a good job overall IMO.

 

I realize it may create a security risk in some instances. In my opinion the names and addresses of people infected should be readily available to the public so everyone who may have come into contact with Covid 19 can find out for themselves. If my neighbor has Covid 19 it would be good to know so I can take extra precautionary measures. The same goes in apartments whrere shared stairways or elevators might be used.

 

Thoughts anyone? 

 

2 hours ago, Figster said:

I'm not suggesting we stop contact tracing altogether.( It helps )  Simply pointing out why contact tracing by itself leaves to many holes.

 

Names and places have to be given for the tracing to take place. Are we looking to manage the spread or stop it? (40%) 

 

Question, If you don't mind my asking? Does it look like we are managing the spread of Covid 19 properly here in the US?

 

Anyone? 

 

 

Virtually nothing is 100% effective. Yes, people will lie or not be completely truthful. And there are mayors and governors who won't mandate masks because they worry about enforcement. Yet those cities/states still have jaywalking laws on the books. Many have laws against smoking pot. These laws are VERY' hard to enforce, but they are still on the books. And, when the police choose to, they enforce these laws. 

 

Truth seems to be, when it's a LAW most people tend to comply. It seems to me  compliance drops significantly when it's just a "suggestion". I don't have any data to support that at the moment unfortunately. But just look at the behavior ( and the infection rate) when things went from totally locked down to more open but "we recommend you try to be good". It's a freaking disaster here in Florida. BTW, it also helps businesses who want to enforce a policy to be able to say "it's the law!"

 

With that said, you make a good point. Fortunately there are social pressures that will help with contact tracing. If you won't comply your wife, brother, friend might be very cooperative in reconstructing your contacts. 

[K-9]

Thought this was interesting:

 

[Warcodered]

White House blocks CDC from testifying on reopening schools next week

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/politics/white-house-cdc-house-testimony-schools/index.html

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

wonder why they did not need trucks during this flu season..where 11,000 people died in Texas vs the 3770 who have died from Covid. Maybe cause funerals are being delayed

 

https://www.texmed.org/Template.aspx?id=48701

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article244267152.html

 

https://www.texmed.org/Template.aspx?id=48701

 

 

I couldn’t find Texas numbers for this flu season that didn’t include “influenza like illness” that might potentially be Covid-19

But let’s use last year, 10,000 from Sept 18-Aug -19.  Primarily , Sept - April so 8 months.  Roughly 40 deaths/day

 

129 deaths from Covid-19 yesterday in Texas, and perhaps there is a belief in Public Health deaths will stay there or continue to increase based on the condition of patients in hospital and the number of new hospitalizations

 

I can easily see why one would need extra mortuary capacity for 129 deaths/day vs 40, whether or not funerals are delayed

It’s not the overall number, it’s the intensity in local areas and #/day

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, Figster said:

Contact tracing is a flawed method in the fight against Covid 19 in my humble opinion. For the simple fact that you have to many people reluctant to share their activities for various reason. Will a married man give out the name/s of his mistress/s? Same goes for the mistress. Will a drug dealer give out the names of his customers? Will a working man divulge in his whereabouts while he's spending time at the lake with his buddies fishing when he's supposed to be at work? Probably not.( just a few examples) Regardless of how much coaxing a contact tracer uses to many gaps will occur to do a good job overall IMO.

 

I realize it may create a security risk in some instances. In my opinion the names and addresses of people infected should be readily available to the public so everyone who may have come into contact with Covid 19 can find out for themselves. If my neighbor has Covid 19 it would be good to know so I can take extra precautionary measures. The same goes in apartments whrere shared stairways or elevators might be used.

 

Thoughts anyone? 

 

Oh, NFW is it appropriate to give out the names and addresses of infected people.  I mean, we have thieves who monitor the death notices for funeral times and dates so they can rob the house while the family of the deceased are off mourning.  Just what we need - low-lifes to break into a house where the owners are on vents or just prostrate in bed and steal their pulse oximeters.

 

Contact tracing is the best we got.  Most people’s daily contacts are much more mundane.  Ideally, we would have apps where anonymizes Bluetooth codes would be captured and if you’re infected, you are asked to give the codes for the last few days to the contact tracers who can then publicize anonymous codes.  I don’t have a problem with someone knowing that some random anonymized numeric code that was near them for 15 minutes during some part of their day is now Covid-19 infected.

 

But somehow that’s more intrusive of privacy than GIVING OUT MY NAME AND ADDRESS if I get Covid-19?  Srsly?  Like no way.

 

You don’t need to take extra precautions because your neighbor has Covid-19.  The definition of a contact is 15 minutes closer than 6 feet.  Just stay 6 feet away when you chat or both wear masks and you’re not at significantly increased risk.  The same goes for shared stairways and elevators.  Unless you are walking up and down the stairway for 15 minutes shoulder to shoulder with others like evacuating from the World Trade Center, the risk is minimal, especially if you wear a mask and push the elevator buttons with a pencil or similar, then sanitize your hands when you get out of the stairs.

[Figster]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oh, NFW is it appropriate to give out the names and addresses of infected people.  I mean, we have thieves who monitor the death notices for funeral times and dates so they can rob the house while the deceased is off mourning.  Just what we need - low-lifes to break into a house where the owners are on vents or just prostrate in bed and steal their pulse oximeters.

 

Contact tracing is the best we got.  Most people’s daily contacts are much more mundane.  Ideally, we would have apps where anonymizes Bluetooth codes would be captured and if you’re infected, you are asked to give the codes for the last few days to the contact tracers who can then publicize anonymous codes.  I don’t have a problem with someone knowing that some random anonymized numeric code that was near them for 15 minutes during some part of their day is now Covid-19 infected.

 

But somehow that’s more intrusive of privacy than GIVING OUT MY NAME AND ADDRESS if I get Covid-19?  Srsly?  Like no way.

 

You don’t need to take extra precautions because your neighbor has Covid-19.  The definition of a contact is 15 minutes closer than 6 feet.  Just stay 6 feet away when you chat or both wear masks and you’re not at significantly increased risk.  The same goes for shared stairways and elevators.  Unless you are walking up and down the stairway for 15 minutes shoulder to shoulder with others like evacuating from the World Trade Center, the risk is minimal, especially if you wear a mask and push the elevator buttons with a pencil or similar, then sanitize your hands when you get out of the stairs.

Myself personally, If my next door neighbor has Covid 19 its going to change the precautions I take. Windows wouldn't be opened on the side facing their house. I'll avoid letting their kids run up to me. Like most people I don't wear a mask doing yard work ,but I would probably start. I could go on and on about how knowing where Covid 19 has taken up residence might help me. No, I highly doubt theives are looking to exploit people with the virus because for one its an indication theres probably allot of occupants at home under quarantine. Two you might end up with the virus.

 

Today, I can think of over 77,000 reasons why contact tracing isn't working well. In some states you can't even narrow down the case load by zip code. Like its some deep, dark, well kept secret.  The way I see it knowing where the virus is and who has it would save lives.

 

We have a difference of opinion... 

Edited July 18, 2020 by Figster

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, Figster said:

Myself personally, If my next door neighbor has Covid 19 its going to change the precautions I take. Windows wouldn't be opened on the side facing their house. I'll avoid letting their kids run up to me. Like most people I don't wear a mask doing yard work ,but I would probably start. I could go on and on about how knowing where Covid 19 has taken up residence might help me. No, I highly doubt theives are looking to exploit people with the virus because for one its an indication theres probaly allot of occupants at home under quarantine. Two you will probably end up with the virus.

 

Today, I can think of over 77,000 reasons why contract tracing isn't working well. In most states you can't even narrow down the case load by zip code.  The way I see it knowing where the virus is and who has it would save lives.

 

We have a difference of opinion... 

 

We agree that contact tracing isn't working well in the US, but it isn't because it shouldn't and wouldn't, done right.  Somehow other democracies do manage this....

 

Your precautions are up to you, but they are out-of-sync with a large body of emerging data about how the virus spreads and doesn't spread.

 

Based on data available, it's not really "opinion" that publicizing names and addresses of covid-19 patients would be an invasion of privacy not justified by any decreased risk of infection due to closing your window and wearing a mask out in your yard, even if your neighbor is not within 6 feet of you.  Furthermore, it wouldn't fill a lot of contact tracing needs because knowing your neighbor's name would not identify him as the customer standing next to a patron of a bar for 2 hrs, or the guy sitting behind someone on public transportation on a long route, which are far higher infection risks than an open window facing the neighbor's house or being outdoors in an adjacent backyard.

Possibly not letting his kids run up to you might help.  There is not great data on how readily kids are 1) infected - one study suggests 50% less than adults and 2) pass infection to adults.  There isn't clear contact tracing data saying they do, there isn't clear data excluding this as many cases of disease have unknown origin.

If that's the level of precaution you feel is necessary or reasonable, you should probably just not have your windows open or work in your yard without a mask or greet your neighbor's kids, because maybe your neighbor (or his kids) actually has covid-19 and just hasn't been diagnosed or found out he'd have to sign up for a slot 3 days from now, wait in his car for 2 hrs to be tested, and wait 10 days for results.

[Figster]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We agree that contact tracing isn't working well in the US, but it isn't because it shouldn't and wouldn't, done right.  Somehow other democracies do manage this....

 

Your precautions are up to you, but they are out-of-sync with a large body of emerging data about how the virus spreads and doesn't spread.

 

Based on data available, it's not really "opinion" that publicizing names and addresses of covid-19 patients would be an invasion of privacy not justified by any decreased risk of infection due to closing your window and wearing a mask out in your yard, even if your neighbor is not within 6 feet of you.  Furthermore, it wouldn't fill a lot of contact tracing needs because knowing your neighbor's name would not identify him as the customer standing next to a patron of a bar for 2 hrs, or the guy sitting behind someone on public transportation on a long route, which are far higher infection risks than an open window facing the neighbor's house or being outdoors in an adjacent backyard.

Possibly not letting his kids run up to you might help.  There is not great data on how readily kids are 1) infected - one study suggests 50% less than adults and 2) pass infection to adults.  There isn't clear contact tracing data saying they do, there isn't clear data excluding this as many cases of disease have unknown origin.

If that's the level of precaution you feel is necessary or reasonable, you should probably just not have your windows open or work in your yard without a mask or greet your neighbor's kids, because maybe your neighbor (or his kids) actually has covid-19 and just hasn't been diagnosed or found out he'd have to sign up for a slot 3 days from now, wait in his car for 2 hrs to be tested, and wait 10 days for results.

We got a little side tracked on why I think going public is a good idea. Its not out of personal preference. Having the names and addresses posted publicly allows the public an ability to trace themselves IMO. Some people could be feeding contact tracers bogus information just to scare someone they don't like and put them under quarantine. Contact tracing on its own is leaving to many gaps in the tracking and just not working well enough IMO. Posting the names eliminates all the time consuming investigations, all the false reporting, and puts the information out there quick so it can warn people immediately IMO. A persons address is no secret. So you know that persons sick or may have sick family members. I'm not sure what the big deal is to be honest. Covid 19 is normally gone within a couple of weeks. I'm not sure why warning people you have it is an invasion of privacy. Drastic times call for drastic measures.

 

I knew months ago the best way we have to combat Covid 19 is to wear a mask. Not just any mask.  I wear an R95 mask. Very comfortable and easier to wear in comparison to the N95 IMO. Now that they are readily available to the public, I encourage my fellow Bills fans to do the same. Working Nuclear in the past has given me 1st hand knowledge and experience in dealing with airborne particulates. Myself personally, most of the country is still out of sync with the data available. I keep hearing it, over and over again. "I did everything by the book yet I just tested positive anyway."  Wear a better mask people. 

 

How do you suppose 6 feet is a safe social distance when its been scientically proven droplets from a sneeze can travel twice as far?

 

Yes, having an 82 year old mom with underlying conditions probably has me going a bit overboard with precautions.

 

Thanks for the insightful response ( per usual) much appreciated.

 

Edited July 18, 2020 by Figster

[Punching Bag]

7 hours ago, The Dean said:

Truth seems to be, when it's a LAW most people tend to comply. It seems to me  compliance drops significantly when it's just a "suggestion". I don't have any data to support that at the moment unfortunately. But just look at the behavior ( and the infection rate) when things went from totally locked down to more open but "we recommend you try to be good". It's a freaking disaster here in Florida. BTW, it also helps businesses who want to enforce a policy to be able to say "it's the law!"

 

Florida educational system does not help.

[Buddo]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53423637/coronavirus-us-v-other-countries-did-it-mess-up-its-reopening

 

Interesting piece, with decent graphical representations of the things that are being looked, at in respect of when, and how, to open things up.

 

[BillsFan4]

Quote

I confirmed legit with another source.  Has not been released to the public, WTF, why?
 

https://publicintegrity.org/health/coronavirus-and-inequality/exclusive-white-house-document-shows-18-states-in-coronavirus-red-zone-covid-19/

@Hapless Bills Fan post from the facts thread (this is the only way I know how to quote a post from a different thread). 
 

I thought this post deserved some discussion. 
 

This is crazy! The CDC should be leading this fight. They are the foremost experts on infectious disease in the world. It’s criminal (IMO) that they’re being forced to sit on the sidelines.

 

Infuriating ?
 

There’s a reason we’re about the only major country yet to get our covid outbreak under control... (graph shared by k9)
 

 

Edited July 18, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, Figster said:

We got a little side tracked on why I think going public is a good idea. Its not out of personal preference. Having the names and addresses posted publicly allows the public an ability to trace themselves IMO.

 

bull####.   It would only allow you to track infections in people you have been in close contact with if you are well-enough acquainted to know their names.   Unless you are living a hermit-like lifestyle, that doesn't begin to scratch the surface of all your contacts.   It does not allow you to identify that you spent 30 minutes in a small doctor's waiting room yesterday who was using his mask as a chin strap, or seated by a table in a restaurant where two people later proved to be infected.

 

It is also a heinous violation of medical privacy and personal privacy.  We're not going to allow anonymized bluetooth to bluetooth tracking algorithms because it's an invasion of privacy but we're going to Doxx people for contracting a contagious disease?  Doxxing is considered an awful thing to do among ethical hackers for damn good reason.   I'm not going to keep arguing this.  If you think the potential benefit outweighs the potential harms to these people, you're wrong.

 

Quote

Some people could be feeding contact tracers bogus information just to scare someone they don't like and put them under quarantine.

 

I'm sorry, people potentially being ***** and doing something wrong does not give us the right to invade people's medical and personal privacy in a heinous way by posting the names and addresses of people who have been positively diagnosed with covid-19.  This is so off the charts invasive of privacy  that I am starting to believe you're trolling me.   IN YOUR OPINION it would be no big deal for my neighbor to know I have covid-19 or make me the target of thieves and crazy people, and yet people who are Doxxed or who Doxx themselves with funeral notices have that happen regularly. 

 

So your solution to the possibility that an infected person might lie to the contact tracers and cause you inconvenience (quarantine is not being enforced after all, and you could say "I was not at dinner with Joe Schmo at Wiggly's on Thursday Night") is to expose every covid-19 infected person to every nutcase in the country, just on the chance that you might leave your window open facing my house and in an undocumented never-has-been-shown-to-happen-in-countries that do great contact tracing covid-19 particle might waft its way out my bedroom window, across the space between our houses (where substantial dilution from brownian motion in outside air occurs) and in your open window?

 

Just close your freakin windows and wear a mask every step you're outside if you're concerned for that low level of likelihood.  And present some data that this actually has been shown to occur if you want to go on about it.

 

Quote

 Drastic times call for drastic measures.

 

Then let's make them effective drastic measures, which can be done in a way that does not publically invade people's personal and medical privacy using an anonymized bluetooth proximity capture.  You totally fail to address the point that publishing names only allows you to track the small number of contacts where you know the person's name and address (because many people have the same or similar names - how many John Browns are there in the world?) but those people are too selfish or ***** to give your correct info to contact tracers or to just call you directly and say "sorry to say this but....". 

Since most people are not selfish or weaseling *****, this cuts the utility of publishing down to a small fraction of known-name-and-address contacts that  would accomplish anything new. 

And as previously discussed and unaddressed, known name and address contacts are only a small fraction of the potential exposures a person who is working or who is out in the community shopping, dining etc has in the day.  So this would have very small impact.

 

Quote

How do you suppose 6 feet is a safe social distance when its been scientically proven droplets from a sneeze can travel twice as far?

 

Don't you see the irony?  You think names and addresses of contacts (which only allow you to trace contacts whose names and addresses you know, and who you know to have been in close contact with you for >15 minutes) would make better contact tracing possible, but yet you yourself are concerned about infection from people who are 12 feet away from you, and who you may be totally unaware you were near.  Don't you see the contradiction there?

 

I don't "suppose" Figster, I look at data.  It's a numbers game.   You need a certain number of infectious particles to contract an infection.   Infectious particles come in different sizes, from large droplets that (because physics) fall to the ground within less than three feet, to smaller aerosol particles.   Some particles will travel farther, but the infectivity measured for covid-19 disease indicates that it isn't measles - transient distant contact is not showing up as a cause of disease, in countries where detailed contact tracing is conducted and this information is available. 

Where people were infected who were further away from an infected person contract covid the exposure was 1) prolonged (hours) 2)forceful exhalations (eg singing, shouting, loud talking in a noisy restaurant) 3) in a venue with poor air circulation (a restaurant with exhaust fans shut off, a choir practice room. 

 

And even a bandana mask mitigates transmission. Here:

 

And here if you don't want to watch the video, though I recommend the video:

https://www.boredpanda.com/how-well-do-masks-work-schlieren-imaging/?utm_source=duckduckgo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=organic

 

For those who care, the difference between an N95 and an R95 respirator is described here.  Are you really wearing an oil-protective short lifespan R95, or are you incorrectly using R95 to describe a valved N95 mask, which does not provide protection for other people?

 

I will not keep responding - if there is new information in subsequent posts, links, studies, contact tracing articles to justify this POV, OK.

If it just keeps reiterating the same opinions without any data or without addressing counterpoints, trolling may be assumed.

 

 

 

 

[Figster]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

bull####.   It would only allow you to track infections in people you have been in close contact with if you are well-enough acquainted to know their names.   Unless you are living a hermit-like lifestyle, that doesn't begin to scratch the surface of all your contacts.   It does not allow you to identify that you spent 30 minutes in a small doctor's waiting room yesterday who was using his mask as a chin strap, or seated by a table in a restaurant where two people later proved to be infected.

 

It is also a heinous violation of medical privacy and personal privacy.  We're not going to allow anonymized bluetooth to bluetooth tracking algorithms because it's an invasion of privacy but we're going to Doxx people for contracting a contagious disease?  Doxxing is considered an awful thing to do among ethical hackers for damn good reason.   I'm not going to keep arguing this.  If you think the potential benefit outweighs the potential harms to these people, you're wrong.

 

 

I'm sorry, people potentially being ***** and doing something wrong does not give us the right to invade people's medical and personal privacy in a heinous way by posting the names and addresses of people who have been positively diagnosed with covid-19.  This is so off the charts invasive of privacy  that I am starting to believe you're trolling me.   IN YOUR OPINION it would be no big deal for my neighbor to know I have covid-19 or make me the target of thieves and crazy people, and yet people who are Doxxed or who Doxx themselves with funeral notices have that happen regularly. 

 

So your solution to the possibility that an infected person might lie to the contact tracers and cause you inconvenience (quarantine is not being enforced after all, and you could say "I was not at dinner with Joe Schmo at Wiggly's on Thursday Night") is to expose every covid-19 infected person to every nutcase in the country, just on the chance that you might leave your window open facing my house and in an undocumented never-has-been-shown-to-happen-in-countries that do great contact tracing covid-19 particle might waft its way out my bedroom window, across the space between our houses (where substantial dilution from brownian motion in outside air occurs) and in your open window?

 

Just close your freakin windows and wear a mask every step you're outside if you're concerned for that low level of likelihood.  And present some data that this actually has been shown to occur if you want to go on about it.

 

 

Then let's make them effective drastic measures, which can be done in a way that does not publically invade people's personal and medical privacy using an anonymized bluetooth proximity capture.  You totally fail to address the point that publishing names only allows you to track the small number of contacts where you know the person's name and address (because many people have the same or similar names - how many John Browns are there in the world?) but those people are too selfish or ***** to give your correct info to contact tracers or to just call you directly and say "sorry to say this but....". 

Since most people are not selfish or weaseling *****, this cuts the utility of publishing down to a small fraction of known-name-and-address contacts that  would accomplish anything new. 

And as previously discussed and unaddressed, known name and address contacts are only a small fraction of the potential exposures a person who is working or who is out in the community shopping, dining etc has in the day.  So this would have very small impact.

 

 

Don't you see the irony?  You think names and addresses of contacts (which only allow you to trace contacts whose names and addresses you know, and who you know to have been in close contact with you for >15 minutes) would make better contact tracing possible, but yet you yourself are concerned about infection from people who are 12 feet away from you, and who you may be totally unaware you were near.  Don't you see the contradiction there?

 

I don't "suppose" Figster, I look at data.  It's a numbers game.   You need a certain number of infectious particles to contract an infection.   Infectious particles come in different sizes, from large droplets that (because physics) fall to the ground within less than three feet, to smaller aerosol particles.   Some particles will travel farther, but the infectivity measured for covid-19 disease indicates that it isn't measles - transient distant contact is not showing up as a cause of disease, in countries where detailed contact tracing is conducted and this information is available. 

Where people were infected who were further away from an infected person contract covid the exposure was 1) prolonged (hours) 2)forceful exhalations (eg singing, shouting, loud talking in a noisy restaurant) 3) in a venue with poor air circulation (a restaurant with exhaust fans shut off, a choir practice room. 

 

And even a bandana mask mitigates transmission. Here:

 

And here if you don't want to watch the video, though I recommend the video:

https://www.boredpanda.com/how-well-do-masks-work-schlieren-imaging/?utm_source=duckduckgo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=organic

 

For those who care, the difference between an N95 and an R95 respirator is described here.  Are you really wearing an oil-protective short lifespan R95, or are you incorrectly using R95 to describe a valved N95 mask, which does not provide protection for other people?

 

I will not keep responding - if there is new information in subsequent posts, links, studies, contact tracing articles to justify this POV, OK.

If it just keeps reiterating the same opinions without any data or without addressing counterpoints, trolling may be assumed.

 

 

 

 

Yes, I'm wearing the oil-protective short lifespan R95 with replacement filters. Expensive, and well worth it in my humble opinion. It does the job and doesn't take away from health professionals that need the N95.

 

This is not the facts only thread and just because we have a difference of opinion does not mean I'm trolling you. I speak from experience working in an enviroment where airborne particulates are prevalent. 

 

Contact tracing here in the US is not doing enough and I touched on some of the reasons why.

 

Looking for solutions not confrontations...

[BillsFan4]

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200717/ousted-florida-scientist-rebekah-jones-whistleblower-complaint-takes-aim-at-gov-ron-desantis
“Ousted Florida scientist Rebekah Jones’ whistleblower complaint takes aim at Gov. Ron DeSantis“

 

Quote

Complaint accuses Gov. Ron DeSantis’ health agency of seeking to falsify statistics to justify the state’s reopening from the coronavirus pandemic in May.

 

Quote

These efforts to falsify the numbers are a pattern and practice in Florida government that goes on to this day,” Jones’ Tallahassee attorney, Rick Johnson, said in a statement. ”(Gov.) Ron DeSantis has routinely given false numbers to the press. His underlings at (the Health Department) follow his example and his direction.”

?

[Augie]

My 27 year old son tells me 3 or 4 of his friends signed up for testing for various reasons, they had been traveling or whatnot. These 3-4 guys waited in long lines in Florida, then gave up and never got tested.  They later got notices that they had tested positive. 

 

I have no idea what to make of any of this......  ?‍♂️

[LB3]

10 minutes ago, Augie said:

My 27 year old son tells me 3 or 4 of his friends signed up for testing for various reasons, they had been traveling or whatnot. These 3-4 guys waited in long lines in Florida, then gave up and never got tested.  They later got notices that they had tested positive. 

 

I have no idea what to make of any of this......  ?‍♂️

Numbers have to go up. Fear is necessary in this.

[Augie]

1 minute ago, LB3 said:

Numbers have to go up. Fear is necessary in this.

 

If fear leads to rational behavior, it may actually be helpful. I’m sorry that that may in fact be true.

 

I’m not taking sides, I’m just sad people can’t be smart without a gun to their head. 

[LB3]

Just now, Augie said:

 

If fear leads to rational behavior, it may actually be helpful. I’m sorry that that may in fact be true.

 

I’m not taking sides, I’m just sad people can’t be smart without a gun to their head. 

I respect you more than most posters on this site. You're a good person.

 

I'm jaded by this. Best wishes to you and yours.

[BillsFan4]

22 minutes ago, Augie said:

My 27 year old son tells me 3 or 4 of his friends signed up for testing for various reasons, they had been traveling or whatnot. These 3-4 guys waited in long lines in Florida, then gave up and never got tested.  They later got notices that they had tested positive. 

 

I have no idea what to make of any of this......  ?‍♂️

How did they have their contact info if they didn’t get the test done? Did they have to give their contact info just to get in line? My brother in law got tested and he didn’t give all his info until he took the test, but this wasn’t in Florida, though it sound alike they have a similar process:

 

Quote

Brooke Liddle, the spokesman for American Medical Response, which administers testing at Holiday Park in Fort Lauderdale and three other South Florida locations, says paperwork with a test taker’s information (email or phone number) is filled out just before the test is administered.

 

I did read about a bogus rumor going around social media claiming positive test results in Florida without taking the test (not saying your son is a liar or anything).

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-covid-positive-test-hoax-20200713-xk3aueospjef7dffzazn4zm5ky-story.html

Edited July 18, 2020 by BillsFan4

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

My 27 year old son tells me 3 or 4 of his friends signed up for testing for various reasons, they had been traveling or whatnot. These 3-4 guys waited in long lines in Florida, then gave up and never got tested.  They later got notices that they had tested positive. 

 

I have no idea what to make of any of this......  ?‍♂️

 

Everyone in line got the covid-19 via air because Florida's leader thinks it is way to immunize the herd?

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

How did they have their contact info if they didn’t get the test done? Did they have to give their contact info just to get in line? My brother in law got tested and he didn’t give all his info until he took the test, but this wasn’t in Florida, though it sound alike they have a similar process:

 

Usually (in VA) you need to call ahead and provide information before you can take a test.

This is way it always is for my daughter.

[The Dean]

27 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Usually (in VA) you need to call ahead and provide information before you can take a test.

This is way it always is for my daughter.

 

 

Florida has some drive up locations where you do not need to make an appointment. You may have to wait in line (in your car) for quite awhile, though. I'm getting blood work done later this week. Going to see if I can throw a Covid test, and antibody test, on top of it. Hopefully it doesn't break the bank.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Figster said:

Yes, I'm wearing the oil-protective short lifespan R95 with replacement filters. Expensive, and well worth it in my humble opinion. It does the job and doesn't take away from health professionals that need the N95.

 

Fair

 

6 hours ago, Figster said:

This is not the facts only thread and just because we have a difference of opinion does not mean I'm trolling you. I speak from experience working in an enviroment where airborne particulates are prevalent. 

 

Particulates are not droplets and aerosols.  Honest.  They have different physical properties.  Honest.  That makes them behave differently in the air.  Honest.

 

I appreciate your assurance that you're not trolling.  When you failed to respond to the points I made about why publishing people's names and addresses would have a negligable effect on contact tracing while just reiterating the same thing ....I won't lie, I did have a "Skydiver" flashback.

 

6 hours ago, Figster said:

Contact tracing here in the US is not doing enough and I touched on some of the reasons why.

 

I agree completely that contact tracing in the US is not doing enough, but I doubt the reasons you suggest - people lying to contact tracers or giving false contacts to "get back" at the person they name is a significant reason why. 

 

The overwhelming major reason why contact tracing is not working right now, and the thing that must be fixed before contact tracing can possibly work, is TESTING.  Labcorp and Quest, nationwide, are running 6-10 days behind on turn around.  In many states, that's uniformly true of all testing sources (DPH, hospitals, clinics) except for Priority 1 samples***.  My friend developed symptoms on Weds, just got a test this am.  Expect results by next Fri-Mon. 

 

Contact tracing simply can not work with that kind of testing delay and results delay.  Can't.  Zero chance, no matter what you do and how you do it.  Hopefully we can agree there!

 

*** Priority 1 samples are Healthcare workers, Hospitalized patients, and patients scheduled for medical procedures.

 

 

2 minutes ago, The Dean said:

Florida has some drive up locations where you do not need to make an appointment. You may have to wait in line (in your car) for quite awhile, though. I'm getting blood work done later this week. Going to see if I can throw a Covid test, and antibody test, on top of it. Hopefully it doesn't break the bank.

 

Heh.  In MO right now, you can make an appointment AND wait in line in your car for hours.

[Punching Bag]

Just now, The Dean said:

 

 

Florida has some drive up locations where you do not need to make an appointment. You may have to wait in line (in your car) for quite awhile, though. I'm getting blood work done later this week. Going to see if I can throw a Covid test, and antibody test, on top of it. Hopefully it doesn't break the bank.

 

For one clinic in Northern VA they require you to have an app on your cell phone, scan something on site and wait in car before you can go in. Since many elderly (and me) do not have such capability I called after being on hold for an hour and disconnected I asked for alternate and quoted requirement to serve handicapped. They deliberately hung up.  Fortunately I had alternate place I could take my daughter to but not all have that option.  Some do not even have cars to wait in.

[Augie]

4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

How did they have their contact info if they didn’t get the test done? Did they have to give their contact info just to get in line? My brother in law got tested and he didn’t give all his info until he took the test, but this wasn’t in Florida, though it sound alike they have a similar process:

 

 

I did read about a bogus rumor going around social media claiming positive test results in Florida without taking the test (not saying your son is a liar or anything).

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-covid-positive-test-hoax-20200713-xk3aueospjef7dffzazn4zm5ky-story.html

 

My son gave me specific names of friends in Florida, including a college roommate,  who reported having to sign up on line the day before going in. They never made it to get tested as the line was too long and slow, but they got positive results. Multiple people, independent reports.  

 

He did the same sign up thing on-line in Georgia, but never got tested and never got a response. My friend’s 26 year old son had to do the same thing in Georgia, sign up on line in advance, with signup for the next day beginning at midnight.  

 

My son showed me some sites reporting 100% positive rates in Florida testing. I don’t believe anyone anymore, unfortunately. 

 

EDIT: they are a handful of guys in their 20’s who have no appetite for challenging this. If they couldn’t wait in line, they are unlikely to challenge a prolonged battle to prove they were wronged. Close friends, guys in his upcoming wedding. Independent reports. I trust science to a degree, but it’s only as good as the people behind it. I get this could be bogus reports. Same with much of the people behind the science. My point is not one side or the other, my point is I never know what to believe. 

 

 

.

 

 

.

Edited July 19, 2020 by Augie

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

My 27 year old son tells me 3 or 4 of his friends signed up for testing for various reasons, they had been traveling or whatnot. These 3-4 guys waited in long lines in Florida, then gave up and never got tested.  They later got notices that they had tested positive. 

 

I have no idea what to make of any of this......  ?‍♂️

 

Perhaps it happened - mistakes do happen.  But every positive test result has a test report that came out of an RT-PCR machine behind it, and if there's no SARS-CoV2 RNA in the sample 'cuz no one got swabbed, it ain't gonna read positive. 

 

There's a chap here in MO, regular dude with a job and a new baby living in SW MO, who started collating data on his own by using public sources.  Posts it on Facebook.  He typically finds many more cases/day than the State website reports - again, by collating official publically available sources.  Along the way, people started talking to him and he learned that the State DHSS employees are working overtime and still about 7,000-10,000 cases behind in entering data so that it will show up on the State DHSS dashboard.  Eventually the State catches up and the numbers match pretty well. (why they have to enter data is another story involving FAX machines and HIPPA). 

 

One of the things MO chap routinely gets is "my (insert relative)'s boyfriend's neighbor's parrot walker knows for a fact that they're failing to count negative results (or double counting positive results).  Without verifiable facts - time, date, testsite, state, agency involved - what I think is it's baloney.

 

Your son should advise his friends to contact the state testing agency immediately and give them their names, contact info, time and place where they signed up for a test, time and place where they gave up, time and date when they were called informing them of a positive result so that this fraud can be immediately corrected, if that's actually what happened.  And if you follow up with the details above and information about what happened when they tried to report a problem, I will personally start and pin a thread apologizing to you.  But otherwise, it's one of these "girlfriend's neighbor's boyfriend's Parrot Walker knows for a fact...." things, far as I'm concerned.

 

I know this.  I can google search "covid testing problem" and find Breitbart and Fox and Infowars reporting dozens of such claims.   Meanwhile, in any organization I've worked in, it's like herding freakin' cats to get 15 people who work together to work towards the same end, much less some nationwide conspiracy to make stuff look worse than it is.. 

What my boots on the ground see - what friends I know who are symptomatic are experiencing in MO - is that far from over-reporting testing results, testing is overwhelmed, delays in obtaining a test are so long and delays in obtaining results are so long that a large number of sick people with relevant symptoms are simply not getting tested.  When you got 103 fever and are so fatigued you can barely drag your butt 10 feet to the loo, who wants to drive 40 miles to a test site to wait in a car for 2 hrs?  Stands to reason. 

 

The reason there are such long delays, is that people here are symptomatic and they really want to be tested.  There's also negative feedback loops:

longer wait for test availability -> long test processing/reporting delays -> symptomatic people don't bother to get tested -> their contacts don't get traced and tested

Meanwhile % positives held low by screening HCW and healthy patients due for procedures and reporting their results promptly.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Augie said:

My son showed me some sites reporting 100% positive rates in Florida testing. I don’t believe anyone anymore, unfortunately.

 

Links to those sites, please?  Thank you.

 

19 minutes ago, Augie said:

My son gave me specific names of friends in Florida, including a college roommate,  who reported having to sign up on line the day before going in. They never made it to get tested as the line was too long and slow, but they got positive results. Multiple people, independent reports.

 

OK, fine.  When?  Where?  Time?  Testing organization?  Details.  Bite the snake.  Prove it's not rumor-mongering.  See offer above.

 

[JDHillFan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

 

Links to those sites, please?  Thank you.

 

 

OK, fine.  When?  Where?  Time?  Testing organization?  Details.  Bite the snake.  Prove it's not rumor-mongering.  See offer

 

 

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200716/florida-reported-100-positive-covid-19-tests-from-some-labs-thats-wrong-hospital-system-says

 

https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

Edited July 19, 2020 by JDHillFan
Added link

[BillsFan4]

46 minutes ago, JDHillFan said:

 

 

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200716/florida-reported-100-positive-covid-19-tests-from-some-labs-thats-wrong-hospital-system-says

 

https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

 

Quote

In recent days, the Florida Department of Health noticed that some smaller, private labs weren’t reporting negative test result data to the state. The Department immediately began working with those labs to ensure that all results were being reported in order to provide comprehensive and transparent data.”

 

So it sounds like it’s not that they were reporting false positive tests. They just weren’t reporting the negative test results. If that’s the case that only changes the positive/negative test percentages, not the total number of positive tests for covid reported for that day. The number of people who tested positive will still be the same even if we know the number of people who tested negative that day.
 

Obviously It’s wrong to say that 100% of the tests were positive, or 100% negative (which has also happened in Florida). But the actual number of positive tests would still be correct (unless they’re being reported more than once). 
 

It also sounds like it was limited to a number of small labs. 

Quote

While it seems a statistical improbability, the state’s reports have shown all-negative and all-positive test results from labs since it began releasing comprehensive daily coronavirus summaries in mid-March.

 

 

Quote

Little said the state report only reflects tests done by Lee Health labs and not the results of thousands of samples taken by its mobile sites that are then sent to private labs for testing.

 

Quote

Lee Health labs have processed a total of 29,557 tests. Of those, 5,351 have been positive and 24,206 have been negative, for a positivity rate of 18.1%. Yesterday, we processed 638 tests. Of those, 182 were positive and 446 were negative, for a positivity rate of 28.5%.”

By comparison, the state of Florida has done almost 3 million total covid tests. They have over 300k positive test results in total.

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov

 

 

I don’t think there’s any doubt that Florida is in the middle of an outbreak.
 

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/13/890558022/spike-in-coronavirus-cases-overwhelms-intensive-care-units-at-florida-hospitals
 

Quote

NPR's Ailsa Chang talks with Dr. David J. De La Zerda, director of the medical intensive care unit at Jackson Memorial Hospital, about the surge in coronavirus patients at Florida's hospitals.

 

Quote

CHANG: So tell me - how is your hospital currently handling this surge? I mean, were you at all prepared for these numbers?

 

DE LA ZERDA: I mean, we didn't expect this to be so rapidly increasing number of cases. So yeah, we are preparing in the sense, like, we are trying to change some of our ICUs that were not being used as COVID; now we will be transporting to COVID units. So it's not like we had 100 beds ready to be used for COVID patients; it's we have to move these patients that were non-COVID patients to a different facility so we can accommodate more COVID patients.

 

CHANG: So as you are moving patients around to different ICU units to free up beds, I mean, are you confident at this point that you will have enough beds and enough trained staff for those beds to handle this new influx of patients?

 

DE LA ZERDA: I am really worried. If we continue to see the influx we've seen in the last few days, we are going to reach our capacity by the end of the week.

 

CHANG: Wow. So what kind of help would you like to see from either the state government or the federal government at this point to help you with that capacity?

 

DE LA ZERDA: The things that we're seeing right now is one issue is the staff, especially nurses, are tired, and they are just burnt out. So we are getting 100 nurses, hopefully, in the next week. We already got 30 of those 100 nurses. We are going to need more nurses for sure. For the physicians, what we're trying to do is following similar models that they did in New York, meaning that we're getting more help from our colleagues, like dermatologists, urologists, and other colleagues are actually coming to the hospital and trying to help out. And then at the end, you know, it's the Convention Center in Miami Beach is now - there are hospital beds. So I think we'll be transferring patients soon.

 

CHANG: And these patients that you're seeing in the ICUs today, are you noticing any differences from the COVID patients you were seeing just two months ago?

 

DE LA ZERDA: Yes. They're younger patients - age last time was probably around 65. Now it's - our average age is between 25 to 35, 45 years old.

 

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-icu-bed-reporting-rules-change-20200623-dmf4p5nf3few5mvjvh53vixewm-story.html
As hospitals fill with coronavirus patients, Florida wants to know who is in the ICU beds

 

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/how-florida-is-allocating-nurses-covid-19-drugs-amid-strained-supply/67-90b7c310-544b-48d3-9129-05014829dea5

How Florida is allocating nurses, COVID-19 drugs amid strained supply

 

(they called in hundreds of extra nurses and had to get extra covid drugs from NY state and the federal govt. to keep up with demand)

Edited July 19, 2020 by BillsFan4

[BillsFan4]

Updated as of yesterday:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/states-comparison
 

It’s not just more testing that’s causing spiking numbers in certain states either.

 

Florida is 19th in testing in the US.

Arizona is 36th
Texas is 41st

 

New York is 1st. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

So it sounds like it’s not that they were reporting false positive tests. They just weren’t reporting the negative test results. If that’s the case that only changes the positive/negative test percentages, not the total number of positive tests for covid reported for that day. The number of people who tested positive will still be the same even if we know the number of people who tested negative that day.
 

Obviously It’s wrong to say that 100% of the tests were positive, or 100% negative (which has also happened in Florida). But the actual number of positive tests would still be correct (unless they’re being reported more than once). 
 

It also sounds like it was limited to a number of small labs.

 

I did my own search, and it looks as though the situation is more complicated than that.   Several large hospital chains are listed as 100% positive tests.

The State is pointing the finger at the labs, but the labs (smaller labs, but also this large hospital associated one, Lee lab) say they have been accurately reporting both positive AND negative results:

"We are aware of a report by the Florida Department of Health that shows 100% of Lee Memorial Hospital Lab COVID-19 tests were reported as positive," Lee Health spokesman Jonathon Little said in a statement Wednesday.

"For the health and safety of our community, we have prioritized transparency throughout this pandemic. We have been accurately reporting our positive and negative test results to the Florida Department of Health, and we are working with the department to resolve this discrepancy."

So it's unclear what's going on.  Traditionally, only positive results for reportable disease are communicated.   One wonders if the surge in cases has caused new people to be brought on board (or previous employees to be re-enlisted) who somehow have retained that previous training, and are only entering the positive cases? 

The Florida % positive tests statistic is clearly screwy, and should be disregarded until Florida DOH gets its act together (either in clarifying what should be reported to its reporter hospitals and labs, or in properly collated what is reported).  Maybe they aren't seeing 20% positive tests; maybe they're seeing 10%, or 12%, or 5%.

None of this should be allowed to cloud the point that Florida is seeing record surges in covid-19 cases.  If Missouri DHSS is overwhelmed with 1,000 cases/day, I would guess perhaps Florida DOH is seriously overwhelmed with >12,000.

 

 

3 hours ago, JDHillFan said:

 

 

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200716/florida-reported-100-positive-covid-19-tests-from-some-labs-thats-wrong-hospital-system-says

 

https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

 

Thanks!

Though apparently the labs are disputing that they are only reporting positive covid tests.  So I think all we can say at this point is that the % positive data from Fl is screwy.   Which is a Good Thing, because 20-25% positives is NY-in-March, when NYC was only testing patients sick enough for immediate hospital admittance.  One would hope the testing is still doing better, at this point.  Hopefully they get it sorted soon.

[plenzmd1]

14 hours ago, Augie said:

My 27 year old son tells me 3 or 4 of his friends signed up for testing for various reasons, they had been traveling or whatnot. These 3-4 guys waited in long lines in Florida, then gave up and never got tested.  They later got notices that they had tested positive. 

 

I have no idea what to make of any of this......  ?‍♂️

Hey Augie, my radar went up on this story yesterday... Friday night a friend of my daughter told me the exact story at dinner, and then heard the exact same story again last night from a bartender at golf course. And i do mean exact same story. My guess is it will be proven that this prolly did happen somewhere, but has now taken over the social media of people under 30. But like you, so hard to know what to believe and what is agenda driven. 

 

[Figster]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I did my own search, and it looks as though the situation is more complicated than that.   Several large hospital chains are listed as 100% positive tests.

The State is pointing the finger at the labs, but the labs (smaller labs, but also this large hospital associated one, Lee lab) say they have been accurately reporting both positive AND negative results:

"We are aware of a report by the Florida Department of Health that shows 100% of Lee Memorial Hospital Lab COVID-19 tests were reported as positive," Lee Health spokesman Jonathon Little said in a statement Wednesday.

"For the health and safety of our community, we have prioritized transparency throughout this pandemic. We have been accurately reporting our positive and negative test results to the Florida Department of Health, and we are working with the department to resolve this discrepancy."

So it's unclear what's going on.  Traditionally, only positive results for reportable disease are communicated.   One wonders if the surge in cases has caused new people to be brought on board (or previous employees to be re-enlisted) who somehow have retained that previous training, and are only entering the positive cases? 

The Florida % positive tests statistic is clearly screwy, and should be disregarded until Florida DOH gets its act together (either in clarifying what should be reported to its reporter hospitals and labs, or in properly collated what is reported).  Maybe they aren't seeing 20% positive tests; maybe they're seeing 10%, or 12%, or 5%.

None of this should be allowed to cloud the point that Florida is seeing record surges in covid-19 cases.  If Missouri DHSS is overwhelmed with 1,000 cases/day, I would guess perhaps Florida DOH is seriously overwhelmed with >12,000.

 

 

 

Thanks!

Though apparently the labs are disputing that they are only reporting positive covid tests.  So I think all we can say at this point is that the % positive data from Fl is screwy.   Which is a Good Thing, because 20-25% positives is NY-in-March, when NYC was only testing patients sick enough for immediate hospital admittance.  One would hope the testing is still doing better, at this point.  Hopefully they get it sorted soon.

I think you may have hit the nail on the head with your possible explanation on how this could happen.

[BillsFan4]

Great news!

[KD in CA]

On 7/18/2020 at 7:59 PM, BillsFan4 said:

Updated as of yesterday:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/states-comparison
 

It’s not just more testing that’s causing spiking numbers in certain states either.

 

Florida is 19th in testing in the US.

Arizona is 36th
Texas is 41st

 

New York is 1st. 

 

States spiked at different times.....started w/ NY and the northeast, now it's moved south.   That was always going to happen, so not sure why people are acting like a spike in FL is so different than a spike in NY.

 

The real question is what happens after every state/metropolis has come out the other side of their spike.  Herd immunity or do specific areas start seeing a second spike?   The later is the thing that would be most worrisome.....of course we're being warned about a second wave but as far as I've heard or noticed from the stats, that's not happening anywhere (at least yet).

[BillsFan4]

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

 

States spiked at different times.....started w/ NY and the northeast, now it's moved south.   That was always going to happen, so not sure why people are acting like a spike in FL is so different than a spike in NY.

 

The real question is what happens after every state/metropolis has come out the other side of their spike.  Herd immunity or do specific areas start seeing a second spike?   The later is the thing that would be most worrisome.....of course we're being warned about a second wave but as far as I've heard or noticed from the stats, that's not happening anywhere (at least yet).

Florida already had to shut down once a few months ago to get an outbreak under control.
 

30 day stay at home order, issued April 1st:

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/04/01/coronavirus-florida-governor-issues-statewide-30-day-stay-at-home-order/
 

timeline of covid in Florida:

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/20/timeline-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-florida/

 

6000 cases on March 31st. Over 12,000 by April 5th. Over 21,000 positive cases by April 13th (almost double in 8 days. Starting to find thousand+ new cases every day). Over 26,000 by April 19th. Over 29,000 by April 23rd and 1000+ deaths. 

37,000 by May 4th.
 

Then they started opening again in mid May, with bars, tattoo shops (etc) and some theme parks opening in early-mid June. 
 

I don’t know if I’d call it a second spike or just a continuation of their first wave?

Edited July 20, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Figster]

2 hours ago, KD in CA said:

 

States spiked at different times.....started w/ NY and the northeast, now it's moved south.   That was always going to happen, so not sure why people are acting like a spike in FL is so different than a spike in NY.

 

The real question is what happens after every state/metropolis has come out the other side of their spike.  Herd immunity or do specific areas start seeing a second spike?   The later is the thing that would be most worrisome.....of course we're being warned about a second wave but as far as I've heard or noticed from the stats, that's not happening anywhere (at least yet).

To achieve herd immunity without a vaccine unfortunately almost half the population would need to test positive with Covid 19 for a chance of this to happen. By way of example the state of NY would need approx 3.5 million people.

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200626/herd-immunity-threshold-could-be-as-low-as-43-percent

Edited July 20, 2020 by Figster