Spotrac Guesses on Potential Bills extensions (edited title)

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Milano ranked 11th in the league in terms of missing the most tackles. It wasn’t exactly a rare occurrence.

 

I do recall him missing his share of tackles last year, but before the leg injury if I remember correctly tackling was a strength of his. He didn't look like the same player to me last year. I'm hoping an extra offseason of recovery will be enough. This is a big year for him. If he shows out he'll be looking at a huge extension.

[thebandit27]

Just now, BillsFan17 said:

The fact you think Milano is just easily replaceable... not much more really here to say

Maybe there should be more to say, like,

for example, show me how difficult it is to find a Will LB. because I would assert that it’s actually pretty easy.

 

And for the record, I said I’d like to see him re-signed. 
 

Some folks are awfully sensitive about this.

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I do recall him missing his share of tackles last year, but before the leg injury if I remember correctly tackling was a strength of his. He didn't look like the same player to me last year. I'm hoping an extra offseason of recovery will be enough. This is a big year for him. If he shows out he'll be looking at a huge extension.

I think he’ll continue to play well.

 

I also think that I’ll be paying close attention to what guys like Schoebert and Martinez get in FA.

 

If Milano thinks he’s getting Moseley money he’s nuts.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

Maybe there should be more to say, like,

for example, show me how difficult it is to find a Will LB. because I would assert that it’s actually pretty easy.

 

And for the record, I said I’d like to see him re-signed. 
 

Some folks are awfully sensitive about this.

 

It's just posters calling you out for bad takes. Nothing sensitive about it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I don’t cite that as a knock; just as a point of reference that it’s not uncommon.

 

His missed tackle rate was 13%; pretty much middling for a starting LB.

 

The guy that missed a bajillion tackles was Jordan Phillips. 24% missed tackle rate ?

 

My point is that in something like "missed tackle rate", a judgement is being about whose responsibility it was to get there and make the tackle.  If a player had a different assignment, and he tracks down the play and makes a try, that's to his credit.  If he's out of position and ditto, that's to his blame.  But we observers can't always make that call. 

 

Milano is (or at least was, last time I tried to assess this) asked to play in situations where I believe other D's would switch to a nickle and the LB would be off the field.

 

Yes, I think Phillips missed tackles and lack of gap integrity vs the run are a reason that Beane said "we believe he still has room to grow as a player" and "he's earned the right to test the market".

 

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I do recall him missing his share of tackles last year, but before the leg injury if I remember correctly tackling was a strength of his. He didn't look like the same player to me last year. I'm hoping an extra offseason of recovery will be enough. This is a big year for him. If he shows out he'll be looking at a huge extension.

 

If the Bills wait to see if Milano shows out or not, he won't be looking at an extension - he'll be a FA

[thebandit27]

Just now, MJS said:

 

It's just posters calling you out for bad takes. Nothing sensitive about it.

Just point out why the take is bad then. You haven’t even come close to doing so except seemingly getting upset.

[BillsFan17]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Maybe there should be more to say, like,

for example, show me how difficult it is to find a Will LB. because I would assert that it’s actually pretty easy.

 

And for the record, I said I’d like to see him re-signed. 
 

Some folks are awfully sensitive about this.

I think he’ll continue to play well.

 

I also think that I’ll be paying close attention to what guys like Schoebert and Martinez get in FA.

 

If Milano thinks he’s getting Moseley money he’s nuts.

Not sensitive at all. There just isn't much debate to be had with someone who thinks Milano is just easily replaceable.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/1457112/2019/12/13/how-matt-milano-is-quietly-becoming-one-of-the-best-matchup-linebackers-in-the-nfl/%3famp

 

Considered one of the best matchup LBs in the league. But because he was a draft day steal, we should just as easily replace him with another late round gem.

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Just point out why the take is bad then. You haven’t even come close to doing so except seemingly getting upset.

Your view of Milano as easily replaceable is a bad take, as I and others have repeated.

[thebandit27]

Just now, BillsFan17 said:

Not sensitive at all. There just isn't much debate to be had with someone who thinks Milano is just easily replaceable.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/1457112/2019/12/13/how-matt-milano-is-quietly-becoming-one-of-the-best-matchup-linebackers-in-the-nfl/%3famp

 

Considered one of the best matchup LBs in the league. But because he was a draft day steal, we should just as easily replace him with another late round gem.

I didn't say that the team should simply let him walk and then look to replace him.

 

I said that paying big money to a Will LB isn’t necessarily a good idea since they’re relatively easy to come by.

 

And they are.

 

So my solution would be to draft another Will in the mid rounds and see if you can get Milano to take a deal below the Deion Jones level.

[BillsFan17]

 

 

Yeah, guys like these a dime a dozen. Just go find another in the fifth round. It's that easy folks. You find a gem in the later rounds. Just rinse and repeat.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Your view of Milano as easily replaceable is a bad take, as I and others have repeated.

So as long as you keep repeating an opinion with zero context it becomes valid?

 

Nice work.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

 

 

Yeah, guys like these a dime a dozen. Just go find another in the fifth round. It's that easy folks. You find a gem in the later rounds. Just rinse and repeat.

Thanks for at least citing something.

 

Not sure which rating is correct here, because P-F-R has him surrendering a passer rating of 94.5 when in coverage:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm
 

And again, it’s not about simply letting him walk because it’s easy to replace him. It’s about not giving him silly money since Will LBs aren’t hard to find.

[whatdrought]

16 hours ago, costrovs said:

How often do teams extend players that are on year 3 of their rookie contracts to long term deals? 

Shouldn't we be talking about this after this upcoming season?

Or in 2 years if the bills do the 5th year option?

 

 

Dawkins and Milano are going into their contract years. Typically this is when the discussion begins. Tre's got a 5th year, but the idea would be to get out in front of it and lock him down before the market re-sets. He's likely going to be the top paid CB in the NFL. If we can get him done before Ramsey get's his, that's gonna be better. 

[MJS]

Just now, whatdrought said:

 

Dawkins and Milano are going into their contract years. Typically this is when the discussion begins. Tre's got a 5th year, but the idea would be to get out in front of it and lock him down before the market re-sets. He's likely going to be the top paid CB in the NFL. If we can get him done before Ramsey get's his, that's gonna be better. 

Agreed. We already know we are going to give him a huge contract. Might as well get it done now because every off season the rate is going to go way up. 3 or 4 years from now his contract will be a bargain.

[whatdrought]

For those talking about Milano, look at Jaylon Smith as a ballpark. 

 

6 years, 68.4 Million. 35.4 guaranteed, 11.5 aav.

 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/jaylon-smith-18982/

[MJS]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

So as long as you keep repeating an opinion with zero context it becomes valid?

 

Nice work.

You keep repeating that Will linebackers are easily replaceable but haven't shown that to be the case whatsoever.

[BillsFan17]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Do you think it's realistic for the Bills to continue to resign their own year in and year out? 

 

Especially if Josh Allen develops how we hope? 

Some will fall victim to circumstance, that's natural. But I'd the argument is, we cant pay everyone, I'll understand that conversation.

 

Thinking, hes just a fine a dozen LB is asinine. Milano is easily one of the best off the ball LBs.

 

That being said, again if it boils down to only being able to pay certain guys, then it is what it is, but I'm not just going to let a stud core D player walk under the assumption hes easily replaceable.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

Not sensitive at all. There just isn't much debate to be had with someone who thinks Milano is just easily replaceable.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/1457112/2019/12/13/how-matt-milano-is-quietly-becoming-one-of-the-best-matchup-linebackers-in-the-nfl/%3famp

 

Considered one of the best matchup LBs in the league. But because he was a draft day steal, we should just as easily replace him with another late round gem.

 

Since it's an Athletic article I'll put this quote from it out there:

"“It’s rare,” Hyde explained. “When I was with my past team and playing third-down situations, you bring in the dime package, bring in another corner, another safety, someone that can cover better than a linebacker. When I first got here, it was no dime package, nothing. No six DBs at all. I’m like, ‘What’s going on?’”

and

It’s hard to overstate the importance of that role in the Bills’ defense. Safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer get a lot of credit for the dominance of Buffalo’s secondary, and rightfully so. They’ll be the first to tell you that Milano makes their jobs much easier because of his ability to take away a tight end or running back.

Having a player like Milano means Hyde and Poyer can play free. The defense can call different coverages. Nobody is worried about leaving Milano alone in coverage against just about anybody.

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

Agreed. We already know we are going to give him a huge contract. Might as well get it done now because every off season the rate is going to go way up. 3 or 4 years from now his contract will be a bargain.

I don't think many players are going to sign until new CBA gets done....Revenues and cap most likely increasing so players will wait to get more money

[Reed83HOF]

I'm confused - is PFF (the place that said Duck Hodges is betetr than Allen and Tre White isn't a top 100 player and 15th best CB) good again?

[BillsFan17]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Thanks for at least citing something.

 

Not sure which rating is correct here, because P-F-R has him surrendering a passer rating of 94.5 when in coverage:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm
 

And again, it’s not about simply letting him walk because it’s easy to replace him. It’s about not giving him silly money since Will LBs aren’t hard to find.

No it doesnt

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

You keep repeating that Will linebackers are easily replaceable but haven't shown that to be the case whatsoever.

You mean except for citing the fact that every year there are picks like Jayon Brown, DeVondre Campbell, Milano, Jerome Baker, Mack Wilson, Joe Schoebert, Blake Martinez, Cory Littleton, etc that come in and do the job? Like I said about 6 responses ago?

[BillsFan17]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

I'm confused - is PFF (the place that said Duck Hodges is betetr than Allen and Tre White isn't a top 100 player and 15th best CB) good again?

Elaborate on your rankings and gauging of Milano. Your snap to snap breakdowns, your understanding of his assignments. I'll wait.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

No it doesnt

That’s a completion percentage—PFF said passer rating.

 

[MJS]

Just now, nucci said:

I don't think many players are going to sign until new CBA gets done....Revenues and cap most likely increasing so players will wait to get more money

Hmm, that might be the prudent thing to do, but getting a huge bonus now is hard to pass up. You could take a devastating hit to the knee and never recover. So I think players will sign contracts before the new CBA.

[thebandit27]

Just now, BillsFan17 said:

Elaborate on your rankings and gauging of Milano. Your snap to snap breakdowns, your understanding of his assignments. I'll wait.

How deep do you want to take this? Cuz I can talk the game just fine thanks.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

You mean except for citing the fact that every year there are picks like Jayon Brown, DeVondre Campbell, Milano, Jerome Baker, Mack Wilson, Joe Schoebert, Blake Martinez, Cory Littleton, etc that come in and do the job? Like I said about 6 responses ago?

And failing to show all of the FAILED picks at linebacker even with high picks in the draft every year? Yeah, I noticed.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

33 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

So as long as you keep repeating an opinion with zero context it becomes valid?

Nice work.

 

Dude, no offense, but in stating that Will linebackers who come in and contribute their first year are common and are easily replaceable, aren't you doing the same?

 

I think you gave like 3 or 4 examples, but the fact is an average of 9 LB have been drafted in the 5th round the past 3 years, so  3 or 4 out of 26 would be like a 10-15% success rate. (you named like 7 names, but only 3 or 4 of them started immediately, and some of them started on poor defenses where they were the best of a sorry lot)

[thebandit27]

Just now, MJS said:

And failing to show all of the FAILED picks at linebacker even with high picks in the draft every year? Yeah, I noticed.

Oh, so you pay attention to the data but bring zero to the discussion? That’s, well, odd...and ineffective.

[H2o]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I do recall him missing his share of tackles last year, but before the leg injury if I remember correctly tackling was a strength of his. He didn't look like the same player to me last year. I'm hoping an extra offseason of recovery will be enough. This is a big year for him. If he shows out he'll be looking at a huge extension.

*Pops the Brian Cushing nutritional pack then prays*

 

Milano: "Dear God, please give me another shot at Deshaun Watson, please...."

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

Elaborate on your rankings and gauging of Milano. Your snap to snap breakdowns, your understanding of his assignments. I'll wait.

you're exhasuting...

[BillsFan17]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

you're exhasuting...

Still waiting. Take your time, you have the knowledge to bring to the table I'm sure of it.

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You mean except for citing the fact that every year there are picks like Jayon Brown, DeVondre Campbell, Milano, Jerome Baker, Mack Wilson, Joe Schoebert, Blake Martinez, Cory Littleton, etc that come in and do the job? Like I said about 6 responses ago?

Comparing those guys to Milano... really?

 

So hey guys dont draft a QB in the first you can grab a Brady in the sixth, it's just that easy.

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Oh, so you pay attention to the data but bring zero to the discussion? That’s, well, odd...and ineffective.

 

What's that have to do with my comment? Have you considered all the failed LB draft picks or not? You say it's easy to draft them, so you must have looked at how many LB's turned out to be busts, right?

EDIT: There were 26 linebackers drafted in 2019. Yes, a few of them turned out to be great, but the majority will probably amount to nothing.

Edited March 4, 2020 by MJS

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dude, no offense, but in stating that Will linebackers who come in and contribute their first year are common and are easily replaceable, aren't you doing the same?

I think you gave like 3 or 4 examples, but the fact is an average of 9 LB have been drafted in the 5th round the past 3 years, so  3 or 4 out of 26 would be like a 10-15% success rate.

That’s only one avenue of filling a need, and yes, you obviously need to be able to identify those players in the scouting process.

 

If you look to FA, teams consistently find producers like Jon Bostic, Anthony Hitchens, etc. without paying huge money.

 

The overarching point here is that paying Milano the suggested sum would be folly since equal production is often found fairly easily.

 

I think I’ll let that be my final thought in this particular issue since I appear to be ruffling some feathers (not yours per se).

5 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

Still waiting. Take your time, you have the knowledge to bring to the table I'm sure of it.

Comparing those guys to Milano... really?

 

So hey guys dont draft a QB in the first you can grab a Brady in the sixth, it's just that easy.

Wow.

[dpberr]

I'm ok with Milano and White extensions.  Not ok with the Dawkins extension.  

 

I think Milano is a fine LB, with room for more.  With corporate knowledge and experience in a consistent system, LBs play even faster, which makes them even faster on the field.  That's really the core principle in Pittsburgh - it's not that they draft blue chip talent all the time, it's that their players keep learning in the same system year after year, and don't have to think as much in the game.

 

Dawkins is a good LT.  I don't know, if as a team, you extend the good LT at that price point. Do you really foresee him becoming a great LT?   

[atlbillsfan1975]

I’m fine with the Tre and Dion numbers. Think Dion might be a little low. 
 

The Milano numbers just rub me the wrong way. Not saying it doesn’t happen but $12.5 mil is steep. Not to mention how much is Edmunds going to get? $14-15 mil? That’s a good bit of cap locked up in linebacker. 
I also think a smaller linebacker good in coverage and average in run stopping could be easier to find in the draft in rounds 3-5. 
Not hating on Milano, but looking at the big picture of who needs to stay. Milano also doesn’t strike me as one of the outstanding leaders for the defense. Milano might be the silent leader type, interested to see if he steps up this year with Alexander gone.

[BillsFan17]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

That’s only one avenue of filling a need, and yes, you obviously need to be able to identify those players in the scouting process.

 

If you look to FA, teams consistently find producers like Jon Bostic, Anthony Hitchens, etc. without paying huge money.

 

The overarching point here is that paying Milano the suggested sum would be folly since equal production is often found fairly easily.

 

I think I’ll let that be my final thought in this particular issue since I appear to be ruffling some feathers (not yours per se).

Wow.

No, maybe we can undo the Oliver pick because once upon a time we drafted a top tier DT in the fifth. Why waist a high pick on a DT, when you can just find them in the fifth.

 

Your logic needs to be put thru to the front office. Especially when you use a handful of examples of players who arent as good as Milano to make your case for how replaceable he is.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

No, maybe we can undo the Oliver pick because once upon a time we drafted a top tier DT in the fifth. Why waist a high pick on a DT, when you can just find them in the fifth.

 

Your logic needs to be put thru to the front office. Especially when you use a handful of examples of players who arent as good as Milano to make your case for how replaceable he is.

How many straw men can you stack?

 

First the absurd Brady comment, now a ridiculous Kyle Williams reference?

 

And to top it off a nebulous “those guys aren’t as good” generalization!

 

Why don’t you compare the tackle stats, passer rating in coverage and get back to me on that.

 

While you’re at it, maybe you can accurately summarize my opinion on re-signing Milano? Because you seem confused about it.

 

You know what? Don’t bother, as I really should just leave this alone.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You mean except for citing the fact that every year there are picks like Jayon Brown, DeVondre Campbell, Milano, Jerome Baker, Mack Wilson, Joe Schoebert, Blake Martinez, Cory Littleton, etc that come in and do the job? Like I said about 6 responses ago?

 

The points are:

1) of those 8 names, I believe 4 became starters immediately.  At least 1 guy on that list didn't start consistently until his 3rd season.  And some of them started on pretty poor D's.

2) in that time period, 26 LB were drafted in the 5th.  So 4/26 would be a 15% chance of replacing Milano, and that would be accepting that the other 3 actually have his skill set.  If you want to argue for 8, 30% - 1 in 3 shot, again, arguing that the other 7 actually do have his skill set and actually did come in and contribute immediately at the same level (debateable)

[NoSaint]

12 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

the yearly figure is smaller if it gets done early.

Yea but that 4th year cost shoots way up usually. 
 

you’ll save a little bit by moving risk from player to

team but not anything substantial unless the guy is broke and high risk.

[HappyDays]

46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

If the Bills wait to see if Milano shows out or not, he won't be looking at an extension - he'll be a FA

 

I'll be surprised if they extend him this offseason. Thinking about players like Sammy Watkins and Shaq Lawson this regime's MO is not to extend players early. They will wait until Milano proves he is worth it. Based on last year I don't think he's met that standard just yet. They use contract years to drive players to be their best. And I tend to agree with Bandit that his role is not particularly difficult to replace if it comes to that.