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Trade back into the first


whorlnut

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Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

100% agree they are not adding 9 rookies.  But 5 of those 9 are in rounds 5 and 6.  This is the year to use at least one of those picks on a PK or P.  Also they can trade a couple of the picks for higher round picks next year.  Looking at what Beane has done in the past, I suspect he will trade the 4th and package with a 5th or 6th  to get back into the 3rd round somewhere or move up a few spots in the third round.  I wouldn't do it, but Beane will likely do it.  


One of those 5th or 6th picks should have Michael Turks name on it. Please!

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2 minutes ago, Logic said:


No, I say it because you routinely ignored everything I said throughout the thread and repeatedly replied in a way that made it clear you probably weren't even reading what I was typing.

And to be fair, I believe it was YOU who told me my strategy "stinks because it's unrealistic". 

What's good for the goose...

Yeah it “stinks” because recent history (facts) support my opinion. Beane trades up, not down. 

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2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:


That’s where my brain is at too. Grab Mimms or the like at 34, an Edge like Weaver from Boise at 44 and then use 54 for a corner or something along those lines. 
 

 


Hang on. I want to be really clear here:
 

Your argument here is that a team is correct to torpedo their future for one year of success where success is defined as a Super Bowl Loss?...

Torpedo their future success? 

 

They missed the playoffs one year. The franchise hasn’t folded.

 

The Rams were 1/2 teams with a chance to win the Super Bowl in 2018. Every other team, including the Bills, had a zero percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, because they didn’t get there. That’s a success for the Rams, period.

 

If the Bills traded next years first and then lost in the Super Bowl, would you be calling them a failure?

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Just now, whorlnut said:

Yeah it “stinks” because recent history (facts) support my opinion. Beane trades up, not down. 


Yep. You got me again. Two whole drafts worth of history is TOTALLY enough to support your conclusion that Beane will never, ever trade down. Nailed it.

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Just now, Logic said:


Yep. You got me again. Two whole drafts worth of history is TOTALLY enough to support your conclusion that Beane will never, ever trade down. Nailed it.

It’s the truth until proven otherwise...quit being an #%* about this. You know exactly where I’m going with this. You’re coming across as someone who is arguing just to argue at this point...

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2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I was talking to another poster about this idea last night and I could see this as something Beane might be willing to do. 
 

With the way this team is built and the AFC East finally appearing to be up for grabs, Beane might view this roster being a few players away to win now. Here’s my idea...what if we took the top DE or OT on the board at 22 and trade next year’s first and one of the extra 5ths this year to get back in the bottom of round 1?  At that point, we could take either DE or OT (whichever we didn’t address at 22) or WR (whichever one starts to fall). We would then still have our original picks minus the extra 5th. 
 

Beane can realistically look at this team as being highly competitive next year and having a low first anyways. It’s not like we should be giving up a top half of the draft first rounder.  We could get two guys this year who we can control for 5 years at positions of need. 
 

 

I always love trading back up into the first to get a top tier player but let's see if they get their man in free agency first.

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Just now, BringBackOrton said:

Torpedo their future success? 

 

They missed the playoffs one year. The franchise hasn’t folded.

 

The Rams were 1/2 teams with a chance to win the Super Bowl in 2018. Every other team, including the Bills, had a zero percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, because they didn’t get there. That’s a success for the Rams, period.

 

If the Bills traded next years first and then lost in the Super Bowl, would you be calling them a failure?


Yes. Torpedo. They aren’t picking in the first round for like 5 years. They have negative cap room, are saddled with huge contracts that aren’t justifiable, and they have other players of import that they cannot sign because of that. They are the number 1 example of how not to build a team. 
 

Losing a super bowl is failure. Getting humiliated in the Super Bowl and having your “historic” offense put up 3 points is an embarrassing failure. Team building success is based on winning the Super Bowl. There’s no participation trophy. They shot their shot and missed. Now they’re up against the grind to keep their window open. 
 

The Example of the Bills doesn’t work at all because them losing the Super Bowl next year, with a core of young players, plenty of money, and a thick roster would prove they were on their way to the top of the mountain. The Rams sold out to get there and fell short. Now they’re reeling to cling to any hope they have of not fading into nothing. Totally different situation.

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2 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

Obviously not someone very familar with the NFL draft!!

 

It would take a lot more than next year's first and the FIFTH round this year to get another first round pick this year!!

I guess you didn’t read an earlier post saying it was an example. I realize it would take more. Then I asked what the Ravens gave up to go up and get Lamar but nobody answered that. 

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2 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

It’s the truth until proven otherwise...quit being an #%* about this. You know exactly where I’m going with this. You’re coming across as someone who is arguing just to argue at this point...


Ever heard the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results"? To state that what Beane has down in TWO drafts indicates what he's going to do in this draft -- or that anyone who offers an alternative strategy that doesn't match up with what Beane has done in his two previous drafts is being unrealistic -- is an over-simplified and logically inadequate line of thinking.

I'm not arguing just to argue. I'm arguing because you posted a thread positing a draft strategy, I replied positing a different strategy, you told me it stinks and backed up that claim with in illogical line of reasoning, REFUSED to read, digest, or consider my explanation for my alternative strategy, and then accused ME of being overly argumentative! If you didn't want anyone to comment on or potentially disagree with your thread, why did you even post it? What's the point of a message board if not to interact? Are only replies that AGREE with your original post allowed?

Sheesh.

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15 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

If losing in the Super Bowl is a failure, why is Kelly in the Hall of Fame?

Because they didn’t reach their goal of winning the super bowl.  They didn’t succeed.  So they failed.  Good effort though

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3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:


Yes. Torpedo. They aren’t picking in the first round for like 5 years. They have negative cap room, are saddled with huge contracts that aren’t justifiable, and they have other players of import that they cannot sign because of that. They are the number 1 example of how not to build a team. 
 

Losing a super bowl is failure. Getting humiliated in the Super Bowl and having your “historic” offense put up 3 points is an embarrassing failure. Team building success is based on winning the Super Bowl. There’s no participation trophy. They shot their shot and missed. Now they’re up against the grind to keep their window open. 
 

The Example of the Bills doesn’t work at all because them losing the Super Bowl next year, with a core of young players, plenty of money, and a thick roster would prove they were on their way to the top of the mountain. The Rams sold out to get there and fell short. Now they’re reeling to cling to any hope they have of not fading into nothing. Totally different situation.

The Rams have $22M in cap space this season. Every single one of their contracts were justifiable. 

 

If there’s no participation trophy for losing in a Super Bowl, then why do you give Kelly and those boys credit for going back to lose 3 more times? Is there a participation trophy if you try really really hard over and over and still lose? Sounds to me like they should be called failures too.

 

If the Rams go 10-6 next year and make the playoffs, but don’t win the Super Bowl, does your position change? Do teams that trade first round picks need to actually win the Super Bowl, not just contend, for it to be justified?

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Since we don’t know who will be available at #22 and how their board stacks up, this is futile. Without that knowledge, all this chasing of the proverbial tail is pointless. There is no right answer. It may be best to move up, and it may be best to move back. It may even be best to sit pat at 22. 

 

Should we move up or move back cannot be answered here any better than “it depends”. 

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25 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Exactly. I think it’s silly that some of the posters in this thread think since it’s perceived to be deep, they will all pan out. Right now, three of the hottest names are Jefferson, Claypool, and Mims. However, they probably put themselves out of reach at 54. I highly doubt Beane stays at 54 and watches them get picked if he likes one of them better than Edwards, Shenault, etc.

Their record for trading up in the second round is not good.  There will be some really good WR talent available at 54...this past year, in a less deep receiver class, McLaurin, Hardman and Metcalf were all there to be had at 54.  Don’t panic!  I’d probably be looking to trade back and end up with three second round picks.

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3 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

I guess you didn’t read an earlier post saying it was an example. I realize it would take more. Then I asked what the Ravens gave up to go up and get Lamar but nobody answered that. 

 

 

But this is your OP, the question you posed in it, directly (not as 'an example'):  "Here’s my idea...what if we took the top DE or OT on the board at 22 and trade next year’s first and one of the extra 5ths this year to get back in the bottom of round 1?"

 

I was responding to that, as that is the base of this thread, what many are responding to.

 

But good to hear that you know better, that that is completely unrealistic.  Unless the other GM is really, really bad!

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3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Because they didn’t reach their goal of winning the super bowl.  They didn’t succeed.  So they failed.  Good effort though

Hey man, if you wanna call Goff, Kelly, Donald, Bruce Smith, Thurman, and Gurley all failures because they didn’t win a SuperBowl, that’s fine with me. That makes sense.

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7 minutes ago, Logic said:


Ever heard the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results"? To state that what Beane has down in TWO drafts indicates what he's going to do in this draft -- or that anyone who offers an alternative strategy that doesn't match up with what Beane has done in his two previous drafts is being unrealistic -- is an over-simplified and logically inadequate line of thinking.

I'm not arguing just to argue. I'm arguing because you posted a thread positing a draft strategy, I replied positing a different strategy, you told me it stinks and backed up that claim with in illogical line of reasoning, REFUSED to read, digest, or consider my explanation for my alternative strategy, and then accused ME of being overly argumentative! If you didn't want anyone to comment on or potentially disagree with your thread, why did you even post it? What's the point of a message board if not to interact? Are only replies that AGREE with your original post allowed?

Sheesh.

I read every word of your drivel...again, I don’t agree so you assume I did t take time to read what you wrote. 
 

“Sheesh”

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5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

The Rams have $22M in cap space this season. Every single one of their contracts were justifiable. 

 

If there’s no participation trophy for losing in a Super Bowl, then why do you give Kelly and those boys credit for going back to lose 3 more times? Is there a participation trophy if you try really really hard over and over and still lose? Sounds to me like they should be called failures too.

 

If the Rams go 10-6 next year and make the playoffs, but don’t win the Super Bowl, does your position change? Do teams that trade first round picks need to actually win the Super Bowl, not just contend, for it to be justified?


And need to pay Jaylon Ramsey top Money, are losing their Kicker and one of their better defensive players (Fowler). 
If you’re going to argue that Gurley and Goff contracts are justifiable, we’re just not on the same page and I’m not sure you know what you’re talking about.

 

They are failures. They failed to win the super bowl, which is the number 1 goal of every NFL team. Duh!!! They’re universally laughed at for it all these years later. Getting there was an impressive feat, but never winning is a blemish and an asterisk on their success. 
 

The Rams not being able to win a Superbowl after doing what they’ve done from a team building standpoint is failure. Yes. And I am confident in saying that as they have set themselves up, they won’t be able to contend consistently for several years until these issues fade into the past. The whole point of it is this- you create a window of contention- not one year.

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23 minutes ago, whatdrought said:


That’s where my brain is at too. Grab Mimms or the like at 34, an Edge like Weaver from Boise at 44 and then use 54 for a corner or something along those lines. 

Yup. I’d be happier than a pig in slop if we came out of the second round with Mims, weaver/Uche, and idk Bryce Hall. 

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1 minute ago, whatdrought said:


And need to pay Jaylon Ramsey top Money, are losing their Kicker and one of their better defensive players (Fowler). 
If you’re going to argue that Gurley and Goff contracts are justifiable, we’re just not on the same page and I’m not sure you know what you’re talking about.

 

They are failures. They failed to win the super bowl, which is the number 1 goal of every NFL team. Duh!!! They’re universally laughed at for it all these years later. Getting there was an impressive feat, but never winning is a blemish and an asterisk on their success. 
 

The Rams not being able to win a Superbowl after doing what they’ve done from a team building standpoint is failure. Yes. And I am confident in saying that as they have set themselves up, they won’t be able to contend consistently for several years until these issues fade into the past. The whole point of it is this- you create a window of contention- not one year.

Why are you talking so much about the Rams?  Why do you care so much? I never said we should trade away years or firsts. I simply said that we might consider moving back up if a prospect we like falls. You brought another team into this and won’t let it go...

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3 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Why are you talking so much about the Rams?  Why do you care so much? I never said we should trade away years or firsts. I simply said that we might consider moving back up if a prospect we like falls. You brought another team into this and won’t let it go...


Can you read?... 

 

I’m having a conversation with another poster. 
 

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Yup. I’d be happier than a pig in slop if we came out of the second round with Mims, weaver/Uche, and idk Bryce Hall. 


Same. I love and I’ve developed a bit of a crush on Kyle Duggar. But that’s a luxury pick.

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1 minute ago, Logic said:

Gotta love a guy who posts something on a MESSAGE BOARD, and then gets irate at and/or insults anyone who dares to disagree or post counterpoints.

Perfect discourse.

Haha...you’re going there, huh?  You have been posting condescending remarks since the first one that I responded to. Pot meet kettle...;)

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3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:


And need to pay Jaylon Ramsey top Money, are losing their Kicker and one of their better defensive players (Fowler). 
If you’re going to argue that Gurley and Goff contracts are justifiable, we’re just not on the same page and I’m not sure you know what you’re talking about.

 

They are failures. They failed to win the super bowl, which is the number 1 goal of every NFL team. Duh!!! They’re universally laughed at for it all these years later. Getting there was an impressive feat, but never winning is a blemish and an asterisk on their success. 
 

The Rams not being able to win a Superbowl after doing what they’ve done from a team building standpoint is failure. Yes. And I am confident in saying that as they have set themselves up, they won’t be able to contend consistently for several years until these issues fade into the past. The whole point of it is this- you create a window of contention- not one year.

Do you pay attention to the NFL? Goff threw 32 TD's to 12 picks, QBed the 2nd best offense in the NFL and took his team to the Super Bowl. You don't think he earned franchise QB money? Is that a joke?

 

Todd Gurley was the best running back in football at the time he inked his deal. Were the Rams suppose to expect he would degenerate in his knees?

 

You are having trouble distinguishing between justifiable versus good deals in hindsight.  NFL teams don't have crystal balls, you know.  If Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, gets paid, and then plays worse, his contract was still "justifiable."

 

I look forward to your apology when the Rams win 10 games next year and contend.

4 minutes ago, yungmack said:

NE, the most successful franchise by far this century, typically trades DOWN for more picks. Should the Bills consider this? 

The Bills should consider hiring the best coach and greatest QB of all time. They make all your decisions look okay. Trading up, trading down, not picking due to cheating, etc.

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1 hour ago, Logic said:


I agree that he will trade up at some point in the draft, but why can't he do it AFTER he has traded down?

I'd like to see him trade down twice, and then use his abundance of middle round picks to trade up to target specific players that he covets.

Example: Trade down twice, obtain an extra 2nd and two extra 3rds. Package 4th-6th round picks with those day two picks to move around strategically and get guys he likes in the 2nd and 3rd round. In the end, he could potentially pick three 2nd round players and a 3rd round player, for instance. Those four players would have a much better chance at making this roster than anyone picked from round five onward.

I know we've only seen Beane trade UP thus far, but it would be nice to see him show that he is adept at trading DOWN, too. It's all about maximizing value. Like I said before, picking in the 20s in a draft that might only have 15-20 1st round rated prospects isn't a great proposition. The difference between pick 22 and pick 35 or 39 or whatever doesn't seem huge to me.


This was my first response to you. REALLY "condescending" stuff ?

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Just now, BringBackOrton said:

Do you pay attention to the NFL? Goff threw 32 TD's to 12 picks, QBed the 2nd best offense in the NFL and took his team to the Super Bowl. You don't think he earned franchise QB money? Is that a joke?

 

Todd Gurley was the best running back in football at the time he inked his deal. Were the Rams suppose to expect he would degenerate in his knees?

 

You are having trouble distinguishing between justifiable versus good deals in hindsight.  NFL teams don't have crystal balls, you know.  If Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, gets paid, and then plays worse, his contract was still "justifiable."

 

I look forward to your apology when the Rams win 10 games next year and contend.


And with that all, there were still plenty of people- myself included, who knew he wasn’t worth the money. He’s shown that now.

 

Thats why people don’t pay running backs that. It’s not at all surprising that he ended up becoming a shell or himself- running backs don’t last. People have known that for years. Before Gurley, teams stopped paying RB’s the Rams said “look guys it’s okay, we can start paying RB’s again.” And then the exact reason people don’t pay RB’s was proven.

 

My main point, and one you refuse to accept, is that team building that focuses entirely on selling off future assets is not sustainable and leads to issues. The rams are the example of that and If you disagree, that’s fine. But you’re wrong. 
 

 

Bookmark. They won’t be. 

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23 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Hey man, if you wanna call Goff, Kelly, Donald, Bruce Smith, Thurman, and Gurley all failures because they didn’t win a SuperBowl, that’s fine with me. That makes sense.

You’re creating false narratives. Im not saying that THEY ARE FAILURES.  As a team, they failed to reach their goal.  They failed.  Stop making stuff up. 

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3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:


And with that all, there were still plenty of people- myself included, who knew he wasn’t worth the money. He’s shown that now.

 

Thats why people don’t pay running backs that. It’s not at all surprising that he ended up becoming a shell or himself- running backs don’t last. People have known that for years. Before Gurley, teams stopped paying RB’s the Rams said “look guys it’s okay, we can start paying RB’s again.” And then the exact reason people don’t pay RB’s was proven.

 

My main point, and one you refuse to accept, is that team building that focuses entirely on selling off future assets is not sustainable and leads to issues. The rams are the example of that and If you disagree, that’s fine. But you’re wrong. 
 

 

Bookmark. They won’t be. 

Okay, so you think he wasn't worth the money and you do what, exactly? Trade him? Let him walk?  Is letting an MVP candidate QB walk in FA for nothing sustainable for success and I missed than era of the NFL?

 

My point is that it's too early to consider this entire Rams era a failure. You could be right. But the bottom line is "sustaining" and never making it to the SB or winning the SB is the same as going all in and never winning the SB.  Either way, you don't achieve the ultimate goal. So really, what does it matter?

 

I also look forward to you calling the SB appearing Bills failures next year.

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8 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Haha...you’re going there, huh?  You have been posting condescending remarks since the first one that I responded to. Pot meet kettle...;)

You really come off like “that guy”.  Ain’t no doubt about it

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3 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Sorry...you’re a choir boy...my bad...

I have a feeling you’re going to get banned for going postal when someone says something negative about one of your thread.  You’re on the clock

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14 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Same. I love and I’ve developed a bit of a crush on Kyle Duggar. But that’s a luxury pick.

I honestly haven’t really focused on him at all. None of the 1-3 round safety prospects actually. I figured that’s be something they dip their toe in next year. Now... bigger CBs that might be converted to safety if they can’t make it outside; I’ve looked at these guys. Lol. Hence my Bryce Hall mention

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11 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Do you pay attention to the NFL? Goff threw 32 TD's to 12 picks, QBed the 2nd best offense in the NFL and took his team to the Super Bowl. You don't think he earned franchise QB money? Is that a joke?

 

Todd Gurley was the best running back in football at the time he inked his deal. Were the Rams suppose to expect he would degenerate in his knees?

 

You are having trouble distinguishing between justifiable versus good deals in hindsight.  NFL teams don't have crystal balls, you know.  If Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, gets paid, and then plays worse, his contract was still "justifiable."

 

I look forward to your apology when the Rams win 10 games next year and contend.

The Bills should consider hiring the best coach and greatest QB of all time. They make all your decisions look okay. Trading up, trading down, not picking due to cheating, etc.

Before they began their dominance, they were just a failed head coach and a 6th round pick, so there's that.

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13 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Okay, so you think he wasn't worth the money and you do what, exactly? Trade him? Let him walk?  Is letting an MVP candidate QB walk in FA for nothing sustainable for success and I missed than era of the NFL?

 

I also look forward to you calling the SB appearing Bills failures next year.


I think they extended him too early. They should have waited and seen if he’d build on his success, or regress... like he did. 
 

That comment shows you that you haven’t been paying attention. If the Bills go to the 2020 super bowl and lose, they will be failures, as they will have failed the #1 goal of NFL teams. It will mean they are on the right track, but have more room to improve. This isn’t a hard concept and I’m sorry it’s so difficult for you to understand. 
 

 

 

 

 

Couple of real stunning intellects floating around this thread. 

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3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I think it’s silly to worry about a future pick when we might be able to take the division this year. I’m not sure why people are worried about that. 
 

And I completely disagree about talent. If someone like Justin Jefferson is there at 29-32, then you try to make the move.


There is no O-lineman at the bottom of the 1st who is going to impact the Bills ability to take the division this year.

 

That’s why...no

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