Trade back into the first

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

I agree that he will trade up at some point in the draft, but why can't he do it AFTER he has traded down?

I'd like to see him trade down twice, and then use his abundance of middle round picks to trade up to target specific players that he covets.

Example: Trade down twice, obtain an extra 2nd and two extra 3rds. Package 4th-6th round picks with those day two picks to move around strategically and get guys he likes in the 2nd and 3rd round. In the end, he could potentially pick three 2nd round players and a 3rd round player, for instance. Those four players would have a much better chance at making this roster than anyone picked from round five onward.

I know we've only seen Beane trade UP thus far, but it would be nice to see him show that he is adept at trading DOWN, too. It's all about maximizing value. Like I said before, picking in the 20s in a draft that might only have 15-20 1st round rated prospects isn't a great proposition. The difference between pick 22 and pick 35 or 39 or whatever doesn't seem huge to me.

It’s not impossible but I think you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you think he’ll trade down. 

[whorlnut]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It’s not impossible but I think you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you think he’ll trade down. 

There’s almost no chance he trades down. We won’t be able to roster 9 draft picks, as Kirby has mentioned. 

[Reed83HOF]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s not an indicator either. There is nothing that makes a 2nd round receiver better than a 1st. Just because teams had their boards wrong doesn’t mean you should wait. You should just do a better job assembling your board.

I believe Beane said they must get their board right 

[twist_to_open]

This coach and GM is producing some ligit starters from the mid to late rounds so far. I would be good staying where we are and trusting the....you know......process.

[whorlnut]

Just now, twist_to_open said:

This coach and GM is producing some ligit starters from the mid to late rounds so far. I would be good staying where we are and trusting the....you know......process.

That’s fine...in the mid to late rounds. But Beane has shown that he’s willing to move up in the early rounds for players he is targeting. 

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

 

This is precisely how elite talent gets passes up on. This is also how a rebuilding team operates. We are beyond our rebuild and ready to win now. 

2019 draft:

Here are some 1st round players taken after pick 20:

Montez Sweat
LJ Collier
Jonathan Abram
Jerry Tillery
N'Keal Harry


Now here are some 2nd round players of note:

Deebo Samuel
DK Metcalf
Dalton Risner
AJ Brown
Juan Thornhill

Tell me you wouldn't rather have the five players taken in round 2 than the five players taken after pick 20 in round 1. 

And JUST accumulating extra picks is how a rebuilding team operates. Moving back, accumulating extra picks, and then packaging those with other late round picks to move around strategically is not.

The Seahawks and Patriots do this type of stuff all the time, and they've both been consistently good for years.

Long story long: I disagree with your contention.

[BringBackOrton]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. This team is not adding 9 rookies. They just don’t have the room on the roster. He will do what he does, target guys and go get them.

Ideal draft would be trading up to 14 to get Lamb and then trading up into the second for an edge player.

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It’s not impossible but I think you’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you think he’ll trade down. 

Don't get me wrong: I don't think he'll trade down. I just wish he would.

I'm almost never a "trade down as much as you can!" guy. This year, however, due to the depth of the wide receiver class and the fact that I don't expect any 1st round worthy WRs to be left when the Bills pick, I wish they had multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks. That way, they could get multiple cracks at the next tier of WRs at an area where their value makes more sense.

Again: This is what I would do, not what I think Beane will do.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

Ideal draft would be trading up to 14 to get Lamb and then trading up into the second for an edge player.

If this draft started Lamb and Anae we should be thrilled.

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

There’s almost no chance he trades down. We won’t be able to roster 9 draft picks, as Kirby has mentioned. 

You're not understanding one basic concept: Trading down out of the first round doesn't mean you keep all the picks you accumulate. 

You can trade down and accumulate some extra 2nd and 3rd round picks, then use the later round picks you have to package WITH those picks to move around the 2nd and 3rd rounds. So you could come out of the second day of the draft with, say, 5 players. Then you'd have almost no late round picks left to use. So in this scenario, I'm arguing that the 5 players taken in rounds 2 and 3 have a BETTER chance of making the roster than just keeping your late round picks.

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

2019 draft:

Here are some 1st round players taken after pick 20:

Montez Sweat
LJ Collier
Jonathan Abram
Jerry Tillery
N'Keal Harry


Now here are some 2nd round players of note:

Deebo Samuel
DK Metcalf
Dalton Risner
AJ Brown
Juan Thornhill

Tell me you wouldn't rather have the five players taken in round 2 than the five players taken after pick 20 in round 1. 

And JUST accumulating extra picks is how a rebuilding team operates. Moving back, accumulating extra picks, and then packaging those with other late round picks to move around strategically is not.

The Seahawks and Patriots do this type of stuff all the time, and they've both been consistently good for years.

Long story long: I disagree with your contention.

Short story:  I completely disagree with yours. 
 

We aren’t in the same boat as the Pats or Seahawks. They are perennial winners...we are trying to get there. 
 

Yeah I would love some of the players you mentioned, but I think you’re setting yourself up if you think Beane is gonna sit at 54 and wait...

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

100% agree. If the somebody slips that they covet, I don’t care about perceived “value”. We aren’t bargain shopping here. Push all you chips to the middle of the table and put the team over the top. 

 

Yup.  Like I said in another thread, I'm sick of shopping at Dollar General.  It's time to start shopping at Saks.

[whorlnut]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

You're not understanding one basic concept: Trading down out of the first round doesn't mean you keep all the picks you accumulate. 

You can trade down and accumulate some extra 2nd and 3rd round picks, then use the later round picks you have to package WITH those picks to move around the 2nd and 3rd rounds. So you could come out of the second day of the draft with, say, 5 players. Then you'd have almost no late round picks left to use. So in this scenario, I'm arguing that the 5 players taken in rounds 2 and 3 have a BETTER chance of making the roster than just keeping your late round picks.

I know what you’re saying and I don’t agree. I can almost guarantee you Beane is not gonna trade down or sit tight and watch players he loves keep getting snatched up. It’s not what he does. Have you even bothered watching the last two drafts?

Just now, Gugny said:

 

Yup.  Like I said in another thread, I'm sick of shopping at Dollar General.  It's time to start shopping at Saks.

#dropmic

[Steve O]

22 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Sammy too

 

Still though, that has nothing to do with this draft. What they did previously when trading away a future first has no correlation to what would happen this time. They may get a HOFer or they may get Peterman. 

Actually no. We traded up for Sammy, not back in to the bottom of the first. My point was the value usually isn't there to trade back in to the bottom of the first as it usually costs this year's second, next year's first, plus other assets (in Losman's case this year's fifth.) Agree that we gave up way too much for Sammy, but he was the Bills only first round pick that year.

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

I was talking to another poster about this idea last night and I could see this as something Beane might be willing to do. 
 

With the way this team is built and the AFC East finally appearing to be up for grabs, Beane might view this roster being a few players away to win now. Here’s my idea...what if we took the top DE or OT on the board at 22 and trade next year’s first and one of the extra 5ths this year to get back in the bottom of round 1?  At that point, we could take either DE or OT (whichever we didn’t address at 22) or WR (whichever one starts to fall). We would then still have our original picks minus the extra 5th. 
 

Beane can realistically look at this team as being highly competitive next year and having a low first anyways. It’s not like we should be giving up a top half of the draft first rounder.  We could get two guys this year who we can control for 5 years at positions of need. 
 

 

Please tell me your last name is not Beane and the poster you were talking to last night doesnt have the last name McDermott because I think this idea is horrible. 

[njbuff]

I’d rather trade next years 1st rounder for Joey Bosa.

 

?

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, fansince88 said:

Please tell me your last name is not Beane and the poster you were talking to last night doesnt have the last name McDermott because I think this idea is horrible. 

Thanks for your opinion...

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Steve O said:

Actually no. We traded up for Sammy, not back in to the bottom of the first. My point was the value usually isn't there to trade back in to the bottom of the first as it usually costs this year's second, next year's first, plus other assets (in Losman's case this year's fifth.) Agree that we gave up way too much for Sammy, but he was the Bills only first round pick that year.

I thought you were talking about trading the following year’s first. 

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

I know what you’re saying and I don’t agree. I can almost guarantee you Beane is not gonna trade down or sit tight and watch players he loves keep getting snatched up. It’s not what he does. Have you even bothered watching the last two drafts?

Have you even bothered reading my posts above?

I JUST said that this is what I would do, not what I think Beane will do. It's what I WISH he would do, not what I'm predicting he will do.

Furthermore, Beane has not yet had a draft where he picked in the 20s. I'm arguing that smart teams who routinely pick in the 20s, like the aforementioned Seahawks and Patriots, often use the strategy I'm espousing. It's smart business if you find yourself in a draft where the 1st round prospects only number 15-20 and you pick later than that. Why pick someone you have ranked as a 2nd round prospect at pick 22 when you can trade down into the ACTUAL 2nd round, get more picks, and get better value? 

Besides, you AGAIN still seem to be missing the point when you say "Beane is not gonna trade down or sit tight and watch players he loves keep getting snatched up". The strategy I'm arguing for literally gives Beane MORE ammunition to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to target specific players. The only difference is he's trading up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds rather than the 1st round because, again, the value maybe makes more sense in those rounds.

Lastly, are you just conveniently ignoring Beane's recent comments that he doesn't believe the Bills are just "a player or two away". He JUST said that. Now you're arguing that he's gonna trade up in the draft to get one impact player? I'd say that your strategy is more out of touch with where the Bills are as a team and with Beane's own recent comments than mine. If you don't believe me, go take a poll of Bills fans and analysts. Would they rather have five players in rounds two and three in this year's draft, or one impact player in round one and then not pick again until the 4th round. I'm pretty confident in what the response would be.




 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Logic

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Have you even bothered reading my posts above?

I JUST said that this is what I would do, not what I think Beane will do. It's what I WISH he would do, not what I'm predicting he will do.

Furthermore, Beane has not yet had a draft where he picked in the 20s. I'm arguing that smart teams who routinely pick in the 20s, like the aforementioned Seahawks and Patriots, often use the strategy I'm espousing. It's smart business if you find yourself in a draft where the 1st round prospects only number 15-20 and you pick later than that. Why pick someone you have ranked as a 2nd round prospect at pick 22 when you can trade down into the ACTUAL 2nd round, get more picks, and get better value? 

Besides, you AGAIN still seem to be missing the point when you say "Beane is not gonna trade down or sit tight and watch players he loves keep getting snatched up". The strategy I'm arguing for literally gives Beane MORE ammunition to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to target specific players. The only difference is he's trading up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds rather than the 1st round because, again, the value maybe makes more sense in those rounds.

Lastly, are you just conveniently ignoring Beane's recent comments that he doesn't believe the Bills are just "a player or two away". He JUST said that. Now you're arguing that he's gonna trade up in the draft to get one impact player? I'd say that your strategy is more out of touch with where the Bills are as a team and with Beane's own recent comments than mine.




 

Do you really believe everything a GM says this time of year?  Haha...wow...